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FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

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How reliable would an autopilot system need to be for you to use it for takeoff and landing?
It's true that I have not used city FSD or flown an aircraft. I'm just going from watching the videos and how many situations I see where an error by the car would require extremely quick correction. I agree that highway autopilot is a great workload reducer and Is safe as long as most people are not abusing it. The problem with trying to learn the "quirks" in the system is that it might do something correct 100 times in a row and screw up on the 101st time. Becoming comfortable with it is the problem. I guess we'll see what happens.

Autopilots are not used for takeoff roll, it's up to the pilot flying that leg when to turn it on. They are usually turned on once the aircraft is stabilized in the climbout, but it varies pilot to pilot. I like hand flying, so I might keep it off a little longer.

Autopilots are used in most aircraft on approaches to the airport, usually right up until just before touchdown, especially if the weather is bad.

On some equipped aircraft, they can be left on through landing and rollout This is usually when the weather is very bad, when landing in zero/zero conditions, that is zero visibility (not actually zero, but maybe measured in feet instead of mile percentages) and zero ceiling height, such as a really foggy day in London. Both pilots are closely monitoring the approach, and the aircraft has to be certified for these type of approaches, and the pilots trained. The autopilot will take the plane all the way to touchdown and through rollout, handling the power settings, attitude, and directional control all the way through, following radio signals from the ground, and the sensors in the aircraft I do not have experience in these aircraft, so I have never landed with an autopilot on personally, but it is very commonly done, and were I trained for it, I would trust it to land, but like my car I would be monitoring it all the while.

My first few encounters with phantom braking surprised the crap out of me, but once I learned to follow other cars, or turn off TACC and/or autopilot at certain times, I felt I had a better handle on it. I still don't fully trust the car, so I try to be ready for unanticipated behavior, but it's still less stressful for me than not using it, because, for the most part it does a great job.

I think that's what it really comes down to, how many times will we have to intervene during a city FSD drive? It's true that the car could do one thing correctly 100 times, then fail. Some of the videos, the car does very well, others not so much. I do expect if it's really that bad overall, Tesla will delay the wider release. I hope that doesn't happen, I am looking forward to trying it.

Flying is not 100% safe, and never will be, aircraft will still continue to crash, but the rate is low enough that most people feel pretty safe getting on them, and they should. Same thing will hold true someday for driverless cars I expect. But I will never fully trust any machine or software to be perfect 100& of the time, and am too old probably to ever feel comfortable getting in a driverless car, or getting an pilotless aircraft. I'll leave that to future generations. But I am enjoying immensely having a car that feels to me like it's out of a science fiction story from when I was young.
 
Agreed. The workload reduction lets you put more of your mental capacity into situational awareness.



Clearly, Tesla will have to implement "New Jersey" mode... "Hey, I'm drivin' here!" This will probably require a hardware upgrade so the car can give other drivers the finger.

It's only level 2 so I expect it to honk then auto roll down my window so I can use a hand signal.
 
This whole private driver thing doesnt apply. You are still driving your car and responsible for it. You also spent 200k to get cars that could do it in a few years maybe. Then there is the fact that you didnt need or use a private driver in the first place so it's not replacing one. It's replacing you not someone you are paying. You are free if you are already riding in the car.

I've used an Uber 4 times this year. That's how many times it would replace a private driver. My private driver it replaced was about $200 a year.
 
My private driver it replaced was about $200 a year.

My killer app will be free-parking seek. My wife and I work in the city about 10 miles from our home, and one-way train fare costs $4.50 per person. So a total commute cost of $18 for two people two ways per day. Over the course of a year, it's more than $4k. Driving and parking is about the same, if not worse. But if FSD could drive off and find free parking (outside the city, at home if need be), my daily commute cost would be reduced to $0.67 in electricity plus wear and tear. Even $10k FSD would pay for itself in under 3 years.
 
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My killer app will be free-parking seek. My wife and I work in the city about 10 miles from our home, and one-way train fare costs $4.50 per person. So a total commute cost of $18 for two people two ways per day. Over the course of a year, it's more than $4k. Driving and parking is about the same, if not worse. But if FSD could drive off and find free parking (outside the city, at home if need be), my daily commute cost would be reduced to $0.67 in electricity plus wear and tear. Even $10k FSD would pay for itself in under 3 years.

I have a similar situation. My train ticket is $400 a month then the subway is $2.75 a ride. It's over $6000 a year. Problem is if I drive I get stuck in traffic for 3hrs. Maybe more. Because everyone also has the same idea. Eventually you pay with money or you pay with time.

Your idea great but not going to work for me. It should work for smaller cities. It would actually make my commute worse if people could put more cars on the road looking for parking here. We'd have an extended rush hour.
 
Your idea great but not going to work for me. It should work for smaller cities. It would actually make my commute worse if people could put more cars on the road looking for parking here. We'd have an extended rush hour.

Robotaxi would kill two birds with one stone. Could take me to work in the morning, and then instead of finding parking it could spend the rest of the day shuttling paying customers around and taking their cars off the road.

But of course we have a way to go between that and FSD beta...
 
Robotaxi would kill two birds with one stone. Could take me to work in the morning, and then instead of finding parking it could spend the rest of the day shuttling paying customers around and taking their cars off the road.

But of course we have a way to go between that and FSD beta...

Agreed, but we already had an issue with Uber and Lyft. What happened was we ended up with significantly more vehicles on the road driving with nobody in them or sitting idling. Everyone became an Uber driver and started driving around the city empty when they had no fare. The empty ride hailing services made traffic crazy.

NYC ended up putting a cap on Uber and Lyft. A limit on how long they could cruise empty, authorize congestion tolls, banned idling more than 3mins and charges them $2.75 for pickups begining or ending in NYC. None of it worked.

Only 22 percent of people own a car in Manhattan. Traffic is much better now due to covid.
 
auto wipers still suck....

The car obviously didn't think so because it never once asked the driver to turn on the wipers. :p

I loved the video because he categorized each situation into nice chunks which I thought was pretty cool. Then the last one was about what happens if one simply leaves off the wipers. He probably wondered what would happen from the previous time where he simply forgot to put them on.

It does pose an interesting question. Should FSD be able to override the wiper off button when it wants to see better.

I do try to leave mine on Auto, but sometimes the thing does some crazy wiping for no particular reason. That's not limited to just my Tesla as my MB van with auto-wipers does that sometimes as well.
 
Looks like there's a new UI rolling out with v2020.40.8.12


And some tweets from Elon:

@ElonMusk: This build should be noticeably better with interventions

@ElonMusk: We measure this primarily in intervention probability. This update addressed several issues, resulting in perhaps ~1/3 fewer interventions. Many of the improvements consist of fixing silly bugs vs grand eureka moments. True for most beta releases in my experience.

How fast do you think you will be rolling out updates for FSD beta?
@ElonMusk: Every 5 to 10 days
 
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This whole private driver thing doesnt apply. You are still driving your car and responsible for it. You also spent 200k to get cars that could do it in a few years maybe. Then there is the fact that you didnt need or use a private driver in the first place so it's not replacing one. It's replacing you not someone you are paying. You are free if you are already riding in the car.

I've used an Uber 4 times this year. That's how many times it would replace a private driver. My private driver it replaced was about $200 a year.
It was a joke ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
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Sounds like it's over for the competition, until Mobileye deploys the super secret rewrite they finished in 2017 :rolleyes:

Some of Tesla's competition is already self driving. People keep acting like tesla did it because they released a beta to 10 people. Some other companies have been testing their self driving tech on more vehicles than that. They just haven't been using customers as test subjects for 10k. Ford, GM, Volvo, bmw, mercedes, honda. These companies use engineers to test not customers. We could see level 3 gm vehicles all over in 3 years for all we know.... Why? Tesla only makes electric cars. I know we like electric cars but most people I meet in NY never even consider it. Tesla is rare here still. Electric anything is rare.


Interesting mercedes wants to go level 3 and accept liability.
Mercedes bets on evolution as Tesla touts revolution in automated driving
 
Looks like there's a new UI rolling out with v2020.40.8.12


And some tweets from Elon:

@ElonMusk: This build should be noticeably better with interventions

@ElonMusk: We measure this primarily in intervention probability. This update addressed several issues, resulting in perhaps ~1/3 fewer interventions. Many of the improvements consist of fixing silly bugs vs grand eureka moments. True for most beta releases in my experience.

How fast do you think you will be rolling out updates for FSD beta?
@ElonMusk: Every 5 to 10 days
Thanks for pulling that together - great summary!

The more I see the more I think that a wider (public) release is going to be in the next 30-45 days.
 
Some of Tesla's competition is already self driving. People keep acting like tesla did it because they released a beta to 10 people. Some other companies have been testing their self driving tech on more vehicles than that. They just haven't been using customers as test subjects for 10k. Ford, GM, Volvo, bmw, mercedes, honda. These companies use engineers to test not customers. We could see level 3 gm vehicles all over in 3 years for all we know.... Why? Tesla only makes electric cars. I know we like electric cars but most people I meet in NY never even consider it. Tesla is rare here still. Electric anything is rare.


Interesting mercedes wants to go level 3 and accept liability.
Mercedes bets on evolution as Tesla touts revolution in automated driving

If everyone takes the Mercedes approach it will never happen! Fine for them, but I'd rather see it first hand in my car then hear about it maybe happening for short stretches of curated road in Germany a couple years from now...That article is them saying 'we are not interested in this, we'll wait until it's done and buy it's.
 
What seems key to me is that Tesla is the only major car company committed to equipping every single vehicle it manufactures with FSD capability.

GM, Honda, Mercedes, etc. may have the capability to manufacture 400k+ FSD capable cars per year but they are not currently doing so and will take years to ramp (3 years from P3dStealth seems like a decent guess, if they were fully committed).

By subsidizing/forcing the latest FSD tech into even their lowest price base model they will end up with a larger FSD fleet than anyone else unless the current hardware is somehow not capable.