Captkerosene
Member
What we are seeing is what Elon was telling us about: baby AGI. Not there yet, but now we have a clear path to the finish line.
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FSD v12.x (end to end AI)
- Thread starter Buckminster
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- #fixphantombraking autopilot chill is not chill elon is an ass fix fsd extreme late deceleration fsd does not commit to go fsd does not maintain proper speed fsd hard and late braking fsd jerky driving fsd late deceleration fsd stops too early too quickly fsd stops too far behind line fsd tailgating in city streets
So, below, I'm not trying to pound on you, specifically, or others in general. I just want to make some germane comments.
First off: I've been using FSD since, what, 1st/2nd quarter of 2022 now. If memory serves, the driver monitoring was in place back then. And, as those of us who've stuck with it know, it's gotten better, then worse, then better, ad infinitum over time. My personal opinion is that we're in the "better" area at the moment.
Having said that: I happen to have a Human Factors type for a spouse. That doesn't make me any kind of an expert, but it sure does make me aware of the issues regarding reaction time when driving an automobile. Not that drivers' ed back in the 1970's wasn't pretty particular as well about Why Following Distances with especial emphasis on human reaction time. And, frankly, those of us who've been doing the FSD-b dance for a while know that the car, over this time, has the tendency to make horrible mistakes; those that don't pay attention, all the time, are going to end up dead or in an accident. (As witness that fellow in FL on a four-lane, high speed local road t-boned himself into oblivion by going under a tractor trailer. Nobody knows what, exactly, that fellow was doing when he did that, but playing with his cell phone is high on the suspicion list.)
Having said all that: I made it a point not to skirt the rules about paying attention that Tesla was putting up with the nags and all. There are engineers out there at Tesla, the place where this car was built, who presumably know what the car can and can't do, and they're saying: Pay Attention!!!
I was determined to Not Be The Idiot Who Didn't. So I've never once been tempted to use some defeat device or other, or wear sunglasses to defeat the driver monitoring. The closes to "defeatism" I've come is one-handed driving; but the eyeballs stay, mainly, out front.
But sanity and common sense say that eyes shouldn't stay fixed out there. Yeah, there's the standard scan from Driver's Ed: Out front, rear mirror, left mirror, right mirror, speedometer, gauges (back in the day, y'know, cars had gauges!), lather, rinse, repeat. And I do that.
And it's not like people don't come equipped with peripheral vision, With that and the scan, well, one gets a pretty good idea of what's out there.
The torquing bit is, I'll admit, not the same as the standard scan. But I've been working at it. Driver's ed and common sense says two hands on the wheel. I've discovered that if one gently shifts the wheel, with breathing, back and forth against FSD, one doesn't get the wheel torque nag. After doing that enough, it becomes a habit, and one doesn't have to think about it.
So, we're talking going upwards of 50 or 100 miles before a nag appears, and it's quickly banished because (usually) it's one of two things:
- Spending too much time looking at the fancy graphics as one goes around a turn or something.
- Forgetting to torque with breathing.
I'm not seeing that. Contrary to that opinion, I haven't had issues changing radio channels, changing the streaming option, taking a quick look at the energy screen. I don't do any of that when the traffic is dicey; but, going back to when I first put a car in gear in 1970 or so, I didn't play with the radio in dicey situations then, either. And, with the Tesla, I haven't had any particular difficulty in the audio/inspect-the-energy stuff.
I think if I have one criticism of the other posters on the subject, it has to be on the time that's being quoted. The Time To Nag is definitely not a second. It's not two seconds, either. I'm thinking it's between three and four, about a breath or so.
Now, like everything Tesla, I'm willing to believe that different cars might have different thresholds on the time to nag. Or, maybe, if one is doing scanning (which durn well should be an approved activity), maybe the time to nag threshold gets, I dunno, extended somewhat.
On 11.4.9 and 2023.44.30.8, it just hasn't been an issue.
Just checked the app, where is my big early adopter button to download v12? end to end single stack paradise will be in my 5 yr old model 3 soon. Finally no more beta!!!, yes, I have egg on my face. I didn’t think Elon would ever deliver the product I paid for years ago.
Finally, my car will have full self driving. Happy days. Stock will be 10 X. When can I order my bot?
Finally, my car will have full self driving. Happy days. Stock will be 10 X. When can I order my bot?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
My guess - Elon is playing fast & lose with the definition of “end to end”. How exactly is the car coming to a 0 mph stop at stop signs ?
Captkerosene
Member
By selecting video input where the driver comes to a full stop.
And feeding that one video to the training system 100,000 times.
A new toggle in 12.x for Automatic Set Speed Offset that shows up as "AUTO / MAX" where the set speed would normally be.
I saw that you cannot go more than 5 over with v12 on city streets now. I wonder if this would allow it to go faster if everyone else was.
Wasn’t the 5 mph max over something to do with the DOT/NHTSA “recall” or allowable user adjustments?
No.
It's new to V12, nothing to do with NHTSA. I would assume they don't trust what it could do at this point.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
That's excellent. I was wondering when Tesla would do this. After all, real autonomous driving has to let the car decide the correct speed.
That's pretty good, you managed to shoehorn excitement, sarcasm, hope, relief and disgust into those three lines.
I'm still expecting Tesla to have the first useful Level 3+ system. At the same time, Elon did essentially promise this would be here 5 years ago or so. But I'm not upset about that. Let me share why.
Point #1: Is it even possible to have an adequate L3 system implemented with procedural code (non-NN AI) with current h'ware and s'ware technology? I don't think so, based on pre-V12 results so far. So let's say it really has to be end-to-end AI (which I will henceforth simply refer to as "AI").
When did Elon realize this? Probably not immediately. But tech to support AI wasn't yet available back when Tesla began work on FSD, so doing it in C++ was the best they could do. Perhaps they even believed there was a chance it would work. During that period of hope, the funds raised from selling FSD helped keep prices of everything else lower, while FSDb (and AP) provided a real benefit under the right circumstances, which to me meant long road trips (about 30K miles worth--5K miles in our '18 M3 and 25K in my '21 MSLR). But eventually it became clear the C++ solution had hit a wall, and Elon had the meeting described in Isaacson's book when the focus switched to AI.
Point #2: If it has to be AI, then Tesla has been building up the infrastructure to be the first on the block (planet) to launch it successfully. There are all the cars sending in data, Dojo (plus whatever other computing resources Tesla has been aggregating) to process it, the best human AI talent to guide it.
So let's imagine FSD actually reaches L3 and maybe L4 (we don't need L5 immediately, L4 would handle 99+% of our autonomous driving needs) in, oh, say a year from now. Looking backward in time, would there be any other path Tesla could have taken to get there faster? Like, years faster? I don't think so!
And that's my final point: all of this overpromising and underdelivering has been annoying, but it may very well end up being the only way Tesla could get from where they were 7 years ago to where they'll be when FSD really works and the world all licenses it from Tesla.
And that's why I don't biatch (very much) about it all, and I do not regret the two cars' worth of FSD I've paid for. I knew that I was basically making a donation to the cause. While I don't believe Elon has been particularly honest with his projections, I do believe he's done about the best that anyone could've done to make general self-driving become a reality, and Tesla will be the first to really nail it.
In the meantime I mostly drive my car myself. Which isn't that bad a predicament, because my Model S is more amazing to drive than any car I've ever had or ever even imagined having for myself, FSD or no FSD.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Let's say NOTHING has improved in v12 except the turn signals.
That's still going to significantly reduce my intervention rate!
That's still going to significantly reduce my intervention rate!
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1vAxRvRPlXqxl?s=20
Omar talking live now (edit - they have moved on to other topics now) - lots of good insights
Omar talking live now (edit - they have moved on to other topics now) - lots of good insights
Omar discussed how he has more safety related disconnects with V12 than V11. He stated that it was poor on highways in heavy rain, throwing up a lot of red hands takeover messages. Also, it is buggy to the point of not being able to engage once in a while.
His take is that this version is not ready for wide release, but perhaps next month or March. I would put little stock in any release estimate since he has tested only a single version and does not know how quickly (or not) progress is being made. And, of course, Omar is a huge Tesla supporter so is hardly objective.
Um. Interesting with this "V12 enhancement".
Except that, on a recent trip to and fro Boston on 11.4.9, the car was already doing that. At least in part.
The observed behavior: One is traveling on an interstate; posted limit is 55, everybody is doing 65.
A mile or two up there's some construction. So, even before one sees the "Construction Ahead!" sign, the DMV around here replaced the 55 mph limit signs with 45 mph signs.
FSD before 11.4.9 had, with its speed limit reading capability, had immediately started slowing to 45 mph in heavy, fast moving traffic. Each and every time. Which means having to know where those slow limit signs are and to crank the car back to the 60-65 that everybody else was doing.
The current behavior with 11.4.9: When that 45 mph sign whips by, the car blinks the set speed limit, changes the color to blue, and puts up a 2-second message about "Following traffic conditions". If the cars around one were all doing 63, the car was doing 63.
No sudden slowdown.
Same thing happened when going through that tunnel on the Merritt Parkway, halfway through CT: The speed limit sign says 45 (well, it's a tunnel), but nobody else was slowing down. And, with 11.4.9, neither was the Tesla.
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diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I think the point is that V12 will be able to adjust speed WITHOUT needing a speed limit sign. So it can adjust speed on its own due to traffic conditions or road conditions without a speed limit sign. And I know I often have to adjust the TACC max speed when using FSD beta to make sure it keeps the right speed in certain conditions. If it works right, this new feature will mean FSD beta does speed adjustments on its own and I won't need to intervene.
If it's trained from milllion(s) of videos of people driving Teslas, it's got absolutely nothing to do with AGI. Read a little before you post a lot.
powertoold
Active Member
Excuse me if this has already been disclosed/discussed:
Omar did a spaces right when he got V12, during this, he said:
1) someone from Tesla AI called him on his phone and told him they're sending V12 to his car and to confirm his VIN
2) they said that it's a very early/rough build of V12 and to expect problems
3) they also said the nags are taken up to 11 because of how early/rough the build is
He admitted he is a self payed contractor to Tesla. Good to know.
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