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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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It isn't semantics.

It isn't where I want to put the Model X but where the automobile industry puts Model X.

You want to create a microniche class, then put the Model X into that Class, then claim it dominates its class? LOL Crossover high performance coupe ?

Roadster competes with Ferraris.Ferrari makes sports cars. Specifically in the "supercar" and "hypercar" class.

"Performance Cars" can be anything from Golf GTI to Mustang to Ferrari.

I just don’t think X3 is competing with Model X, rather it will compete with Model Y. I would say any 5-7seater SUV/CUV costing $70-200k with 2-7s 0-100km/h is in the same category as the Model X. That seems pretty generous. Removing those from the list and subtracting some numbers of cars that has some options out of that range, are there any cars left?
 
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For those of you speaking German or interested how the German media does look at Tesla here is a Video from yesterday.

Being a known Tesla-enthusiast at work, a couple of German colleagues mentioned this to me.

What they and I took away, is that the documentary tries to calm down the viewer.

It does so by pointing out that:
1) several components in the S/X are German (e.g. door handles and parts from Bosch),
2) Germany has the robot know-how (with a clip from Grohman),
3) Tesla had a learning experience with said robots, of which two collided and damaged each other,
3a) - without mentioning that a VW robot killed a worker in 2015, see
What links a reporter and the robot apocalypse?
4) Tesla employees work many hours with some suffering health issues,
4a) - without comparing with other car makers, US or German,
5) Tesla has no unions,
5a) - without mentioning that unions work much better in Europe,
6) Germany is attempting to catch up with e.g. Porsche is testing the Taycan
6a) - without mentioning the small market segment that Porsche addresses.

There was a somewhat more alarmist documentary a good year ago, a copy is here:


- in this (featuring the same German BEV expert), there is a hard look at the future for the German
ICE-based industry.
 
I just don’t think X3 is competing with Model X, rather it will compete with Model Y. I would say any 5-7seater SUV/CUV costing $70-200k with 2-7s 0-100km/h is in the same category as the Model X. That seems pretty generous. Removing those from the list and subtracting some numbers of cars that has some options out of that range, are there any cars left?

upload_2018-12-17_1-46-19-png.361570


I would agree that it is a stretch to put the Lexus RX in the same class as Model X. These are in the class and outsell the Model X....

Acura MDX
Mercedes GLE
Infiniti QX60
BMW X5
Audi Q7
Volvo XC90
Lincoln Nautilus
Lexus GX.

Two reasons Model X has such a higher base price is Falcon Wing Doors and no base rear wheel drive version. All wheel drive is standard.

If Gen II vehicles were demand constrained at some point Tesla could offer Model X RWD and lop $5k off the base price without lower gross margins. Maybe in the future after the switch to 2170.

BTW Model 3 so dominates its class it outsells all competitor brands offerings in the same and adjacent class like BMW 2 Series,3 Series, and 4 Series COMBINED.
 
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6) Germany is attempting to catch up with e.g. Porsche is testing the Taycan
6a) - without mentioning the small market segment that Porsche addresses.

6b) - without mentioning that Ionity is only building 200A chargers because they can't get the water-cooled cables (blabla "Germans beat Tesla to 3 min charging" -- utter bs)
6c) - without mentioning that all the German manufacturers currently only make these vehicles available for test drives in warm climates (guess why)
6d) - I'm sure that @lklundin and I could go on and on about all the small omissions and errors that were in this documentary.
 
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upload_2018-12-17_1-46-19-png.361570


I would agree that it is a stretch to put the Lexus RX in the same class as Model X. These are in the class and outsell the Model X....

Acura MDX
Mercedes GLE
Infiniti QX60
BMW X5
Audi Q7
Volvo XC90
Lincoln Nautilus
Lexus GX.

Two reasons Model X has such a higher base price is Falcon Wing Doors and no base rear wheel drive version. All wheel drive is standard.

If Gen II vehicles were demand constrained at some point Tesla could offer Model X RWD and lop $5k off the base price without lower gross margins. Maybe in the future after the switch to 2170.

BTW Model 3 so dominates its class it outsells all competitor brands offerings in the same and adjacent class like BMW 2 Series,3 Series, and 4 Series COMBINED.

I’m not gonna go through all the list. But Acura MDX for example:
2019 Acura MDX Price | Specs & Dimensions | Acura.com
Starting at $44k with a hybrid awd for $60k. Is that really comparable to Model X? Maybe the top end of it could be compared to the bottom end of the Model X, so those sales numbers could be compared.

Audi Q7 and XC90 seems closer to Model X, especially the expensiver options. The others I don’t know too well to comment on.

Anyway, it seems we have argued enough about this side track! =)
 
Any thoughts on which automaker is least prepared for electrification + autonomy?

I am thinking about shorting a major OEM in case of recession. If recession doesn't happen, they will still have difficulties due to electrification + autonomy.

Tesla, they did not plan for the demand of the 3 and were like 400,000 orders behind at one point. Years later, they still aren't meeting demand.
:D
However, I don't recommend shorting them.
(yes, is joke (except for the shorting part, don't short TSLA or a Tesla))
 
(yes, is joke (except for the shorting part, don't short TSLA or a Tesla))
Good points! You might add that shooting a bullet downwards in the rear seat of any Tesla can cause a short, maybe even a fire. Shorting a Tesla in this fashion also can void the warranty. This is an important addendum to your post because this warning is NOT contained anywhere in Tesla manuals or other disclosures.
 
Good points! You might add that shooting a bullet downwards in the rear seat of any Tesla can cause a short, maybe even a fire. Shorting a Tesla in this fashion also can void the warranty. This is an important addendum to your post because this warning is NOT contained anywhere in Tesla manuals or other disclosures.
Yeah how they could to neglect to put a "Don't shoot your car" warning in is strange:D
 
Good points! You might add that shooting a bullet downwards in the rear seat of any Tesla can cause a short, maybe even a fire. Shorting a Tesla in this fashion also can void the warranty. This is an important addendum to your post because this warning is NOT contained anywhere in Tesla manuals or other disclosures.
I wonder if Remington has a disclaimer on their firearms stating that it is not recommended putting a round in the chamber, putting the barrel to your head and pulling the trigger. Or maybe Honda needs a disclaimer that it does not recommend riding their motorcycles at high speeds and running into concrete walls. If you are being sarcastic please excuse me for not picking up on it. Sarcasm is tough to get in print.

Dan
 
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WAY OT

Yeah how they could to neglect to put a "Don't shoot your car" warning in is strange:D
"Thelma and Louise" and gasoline tanker trucks............ (for those who saw that movie)

we're back
(SPaceX Launch in 10 minutes, queue up the viddy!!)
launch scrubbed, possible 9:07 EST wednesday
 
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I wonder if Remington has a disclaimer on their firearms stating that it is not recommended putting a round in the chamber, putting the barrel to your head and pulling the trigger. Or maybe Honda needs a disclaimer that it does not recommend riding their motorcycles at high speeds and running into concrete walls. If you are being sarcastic please excuse me for not picking up on it. Sarcasm is tough to get in print.

Dan
Happy Fun Ball
 
Any thoughts on which automaker is least prepared for electrification + autonomy?

Take your pick from Fiat Chrysler, Ford, Toyota, Groupe PSA, and Honda, all of whom appear to have done practically nothing at all.

I am thinking about shorting a major OEM in case of recession. If recession doesn't happen, they will still have difficulties due to electrification + autonomy.
 
I’m not gonna go through all the list. But Acura MDX for example:
2019 Acura MDX Price | Specs & Dimensions | Acura.com
Starting at $44k with a hybrid awd for $60k. Is that really comparable to Model X? Maybe the top end of it could be compared to the bottom end of the Model X, so those sales numbers could be compared.

Audi Q7 and XC90 seems closer to Model X, especially the expensiver options. The others I don’t know too well to comment on.

Anyway, it seems we have argued enough about this side track! =)


MDX is a CUV that offers comparable sized interior with 7 passenger seating with more luxurious appointments with obviously less acceleration. Yeah, that puts in the same class even if Tesla charges a lot more money.

Model 3 with a current starting base price of $46k outsells Acura TLX with starting base price of $34k before dealer discounts and Acura ILX with a starting base price of $26k before dealer discounts COMBINED.
 
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Two reasons Model X has such a higher base price is Falcon Wing Doors and no base rear wheel drive version. All wheel drive is standard.

If Gen II vehicles were demand constrained at some point Tesla could offer Model X RWD and lop $5k off the base price without lower gross margins. Maybe in the future after the switch to 2170.

BTW Model 3 so dominates its class it outsells all competitor brands offerings in the same and adjacent class like BMW 2 Series,3 Series, and 4 Series COMBINED.

Making it front wheel drive rather than RWD should offer superior traction in rain and snow, even with weight evenly distributed with a battery rather than an engine sitting over the front end.
 
Making it front wheel drive rather than RWD should offer superior traction in rain and snow, even with weight evenly distributed with a battery rather than an engine sitting over the front end.
FWD doesn't provide superior traction. It just makes drivers that don't know how to drive less likely to have the tail swing out under power. Active electronics are replacing driver skill anyway.
 
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