Here's my take of reading between the lines of what Elon said at both the annual shareholder meeting and the Code conference. An update to the Autopilot hardware is coming in a year or less, possibly in 6 months at this possible "part 2" event for Model 3. The hardware will hit the Model S and X first and will also be included in the Model 3. A major autopilot software update may not come until Model 3 reaches production in a year or later. By major I mean Level 3 Autonomous or possibly close to Level 4 Autonomous. What is not clear to me is why is the Model 3 interior so different than the Roadster, S or X? Will the Model 3 interior change, or stay spartan to include a new interface such as a HUD? And if the Model 3 does have "spaceship" like interior, will that make its way to the S and X? I've done my spreadsheet too and I think I can afford a Model S 75D, but I'm holding off at least 6 to 12 months to see what new features are coming. I'm hedging my bet with a 3/31/16 Model 3 reservation as well.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Well, resale value is the number 1 thing that affects lease prices.
Model s has had great resale value (my fear is resale value moving forward won't be as good), yet tesla doesn't seem to factor this in their lease prices
My understanding is that I would be paying over $40,000 to lease a model S for 3 years (15 k miles a year). Seems high to me considering how much they sell their CPOs. But I don't know honestly I don't know the details (residual values, money factor) maybe it's a better deal that I think?
Thanks
bcashman
Member
We need to remember that the M3 and MS are in completely different categories. MS is a luxury vehicle, while the M3 intended price puts it firmly in the general consumer vehicle category.
It won't have the styling, features or luxury of the MS. It won't be possible within the promised price and also isn't a smart move for a company to undercut their premium vehicle market by piling all of the features etc into a cheaper car aimed at a different consumer.
If you're up for an MS until your M3 order arrived then I'd look at leasing the MS from new and taka advantage of the resale guarantee from Tesla. Do it over 3 - 4 years and you won't have to worry about selling the car before getting your M3. You'll pay more per month than a second hand or CPI but I see that avoiding the risk of a lower resale value or no sale at all, worth it.
Plus the lease should be cheaper per month than buying on a standard loan, and that extra cash is better in your pocket now than in 4 years when you sell.
It won't have the styling, features or luxury of the MS. It won't be possible within the promised price and also isn't a smart move for a company to undercut their premium vehicle market by piling all of the features etc into a cheaper car aimed at a different consumer.
If you're up for an MS until your M3 order arrived then I'd look at leasing the MS from new and taka advantage of the resale guarantee from Tesla. Do it over 3 - 4 years and you won't have to worry about selling the car before getting your M3. You'll pay more per month than a second hand or CPI but I see that avoiding the risk of a lower resale value or no sale at all, worth it.
Plus the lease should be cheaper per month than buying on a standard loan, and that extra cash is better in your pocket now than in 4 years when you sell.
Is it really not a luxury car? I thought it was going to be a 3 series competitor. I consider a BMW 3 series as a luxury car.
See my critic in my previous post with leases. I am not thrilled at spending $40000 to drive a car for 3 years (net of tax credits!). I think tesla could offer better deals on leases considering the kind of resale value the Model S has got so far.
bcashman
Member
If I level an MS now with the intention of getting the M3 when it arrives then I see the lease cost purely as the opportunity cost of getting to drive a Tesla right now and not having to wait.
Personally, my gut feeling is that if you rride an MS for multiple years then test drive an M3 when they are here, you will probably not want to downgrade.
If money is the issue and the decision is this hard, seems like waiting for the M3 is thee answer here.
Personally, my gut feeling is that if you rride an MS for multiple years then test drive an M3 when they are here, you will probably not want to downgrade.
If money is the issue and the decision is this hard, seems like waiting for the M3 is thee answer here.
e-FTW
New electron smell
Good point. But if one is stretching and gets a base Model S, then moves on to a Model 3 PxxDL with more (cow)bells and whistles, one might not mind the downgrade. YMMV!
bcashman
Member
True. But I wouldn't be stretching to get an MS now and HOPING the M3 Co Es with more features and is an even remotely similar car. There is still an awful lot Tesla need to work out and tell us about.
Example is the likelihood of having to may for the supercharger network if you are an M3 owner. Add all of these little 1% items up and it will be a different discussion in a few years time at release day.
I'd get in an S, leading it to minimise all risk, and make the decision on moving to an M3 when the time is here. If you decide not to switch to the M3 later then you end your lease with no risk or lost sale value (just the sunk cost of leasing) then look at second hand (newer) or CPO MS.
When you think about it, it's not a bad decision point to be involved in. Either way you'll get in a Tesla
Example is the likelihood of having to may for the supercharger network if you are an M3 owner. Add all of these little 1% items up and it will be a different discussion in a few years time at release day.
I'd get in an S, leading it to minimise all risk, and make the decision on moving to an M3 when the time is here. If you decide not to switch to the M3 later then you end your lease with no risk or lost sale value (just the sunk cost of leasing) then look at second hand (newer) or CPO MS.
When you think about it, it's not a bad decision point to be involved in. Either way you'll get in a Tesla
My 2 cents, no matter which car you get, they will be worth 1/2 of the new car price in about 3-4 years. Check the residual of a Model S or Model X lease and you will see.
Comparing the Model 3 and Model S is probably like comparing a BMW 320 to a 740. One is an entry level model which is a very good car and the other is a flagship which gets all the bells and whistles. However, I do think that the Model 3 will likely be a very fun car to drive as it will be smaller and more nimble.
If the Model S is comfortably within your budget, I would say go for it as you will not go wrong with it. If you are not a current Tesla owner living in the West Coast, you may not be able to get the tax credit anymore so it may make the price difference not as much anymore.
One thing I omit to mention.. We would not buy the base model 3. We would likely get $10 to $15k worth of options. (leather, upgraded battery, potentially all wheel drive, and of course auto pilot). So I guess it would be more like a 335? I guess some disagree but I would consider that as a luxury car. I guess it's all relative.
Anyway definitely not ruling out the MS. There are definitely a few things that would make our life easier in the S as opposed to the 3. I think we are going to wait until the end of the year for what I consider a likely hardware upgrade of the autopilot of the S.
I guess the only thing I am sure at this point is I don't want the X
Thanks for the input
One thing I omit to mention.. We would not buy the base model 3. We would likely get $10 to $15k worth of options. (leather, upgraded battery, potentially all wheel drive, and of course auto pilot). So I guess it would be more like a 335? I guess some disagree but I would consider that as a luxury car. I guess it's all relative.
Anyway definitely not ruling out the MS. There are definitely a few things that would make our life easier in the S as opposed to the 3. I think we are going to wait until the end of the year for what I consider a likely hardware upgrade of the autopilot of the S.
I guess the only thing I am sure at this point is I don't want the X
Thanks for the input
Hmmm. I am actually trading in the MS for a MX in a couple more weeks.
But we totally loved the MS just needed more seats. As my daughter cannot sit in the 3rd row in the MS anymore. Too hot and uncomfortable for her.
Ugh. Sorry to hear about your FR-S. I think going to a MS from a FR-S will take a bit of adjustment; the FR-S is a great car, but much smaller and lighter than a MS. The MS 70 will handle differently than what you've been used to -- it feels more like a BMW M6 than a Z4.
Personally, I think it is unlikely that the Model 3 will be out in 2 years.
It takes Tesla 3 days to completely finish a Model S. They deliver close to 15,000 a quarter. 5,000 cars a month, building roughly 228 cars a day (as far as I know the factory doesn't run on weekends). To meet the production goal of 500,000 cars a year, they need to be cranking out 41,667 cars a month, or 1,894 cars a day. This is roughly 8x what they're doing now production-wise. They can adjust their production multiple ways, but to basically build and deliver all the Model 3 preorders by the end of 2018 is what Tesla is shooting for. It is possible, because that's what NUMMI was producing at the height of operation, but Tesla extensively retooled and remodeled the factory.
If you think about it this way, with 40k, if you spend $37.50 a day on renting a car everyday for 3 years, that's basically the same cost as leasing the Model S. If you decide to buy instead of lease, you're guaranteed a 50% resale value from Elon Musk (through the Tesla financing program). Tesla buying back their financed vehicles and using old leases in CPO and loaners helps keep the resale value of the Model S high. While I think the Model 3 will be a great car (and basically blows away the non-Tesla EVs on the market), the Model S will still be a very in-demand car and hold its value while Model 3 pre-order production catches up. You could buy the Model S, resell it back in 3 years and then apply that money towards a new Model 3.
The thing about Teslas is that the options stack up pretty quickly. I'd guess that with 10-15k you'd have a nearly fully optioned Model 3.
I think one of the things that Tesla has done well is to keep adding features to cars to keep them desirable. At the same time, there's still a demand for older Model S' for people to take the plunge into EV who might not necessarily want or need Autopilot or Dual Motors. With major updates in features and tech, you have people wanting to change up to a newer model or upgrading their cars post-purchase. With the Software updates, they keep adding new features to keep the car feeling new.
I've had my MS for a little over a year now, and it's a different car from when I took delivery, thanks to the Over-the-Air updates.
In April 2015 - Take delivery at the Factory. A few days later, an OTA update added a higher top speed and a faster 0-60 time. Another
OTA added more charging locations to the GPS. A few months later, new UI and Autopilot 1.0. Auto-Park and Summon functionality added a few months after that. All within the span of 1 year.
I upgraded to Ludicrous after the first year, and the upgrade made the car feel new again. The battery has an 8-year warranty, and I suspect that by 2020 and once the Gigafactory is pumping out the batteries for the Model 3, we'll be able to replace the battery to a higher capacity one.
RogerHScott
Active Member
You say that with a dispassion that could only come from a non-Tesla-owner
If you turned it around and asked a Tesla owner if they'd like to give up their MS for 3 years in return for -- well, pretty much
anything -- I think you'd best step back before asking.
That's rather likely, I'd think. In fact, if it weren't, Tesla did something really wrong with the M3 in terms of preserving their MS market.
Lastly, make sure you're (very) realistic about how long the wait for that M3 might actually be, especially
if you're not an MS owner.
Thanks for the tips! Definitely confirmed that handling is not the same as my FRS. That said I also own a Nissan Altima hybrid (4,400 pounds) maybe a little closer to the MS.
Currently weighing options.. Another consideration.. Elon musk stated that there would be an event for the autopilot by the end of the year "we will do the obvious thing". So I am kind of also considering waiting until the event to see more clearly (and get AP 2.0 hardware in anticipation for full stable auto pilot release at some point). 6 months is annoying but definitely better than waiting an hypothetical 2 years.
Then my wife got home tonight and reported some kind of weird noise in our Altima hybrid (out of warranty) so I don't know.. We may have to act sooner than later who knows.
bcashman
Member
You say that with a dispassion that could only come from a non-Tesla-owner
Sorry, it was meant the other way around! I've just read back over my posts and auto correct on my phone was wreaking havoc!
I am basically saying that IF you wanted the M3 when it is released (maybe for price, hopeful new features etc) BUT want to be in a Tesla right now (aka MS) then I'd lease. Take the lease costs as sunk costs and risk mitigation against lower resale value of owning the MS, potential for less buyers etc. Or buy new and take advantage of the buy back guarantee to mitigate the same risks.
My MS just went into production, due to arrive in Sydney late August/September. Whoop whoop!
Ok if that's the case then xav is right the model s will tank in value, however 50% in 3 years is conservative. The depreciation will be %60 of its new price. Because that's how much BMW 7 series depreciates. When you compare the 3 series to the 7 series the 3 series has much better resale value. However you cannot compare the BMW 7 series to the model s because the model S is much better looking, more desirable, don't look like a rich old guy driving one, 8 years warranty on the important staff, has a superior drive train and is the best EV in the world. So yes it will have better resale value than the 7 series. But the model 3 will hurt the model S resale value big time that I know for sure. 2-3 years from now Model s owners will not enjoy the same resale value like today.
travwill
Active Member
It seems that there are more and more people that look at their cars, Teslas, like a phone - with incremental little pieces of functionality as must haves, reasons a year old model is obsolete, etc. Even when the model III releases, or newer MS/MX get new AP hardware/software, they are still 99% the same most of the time - great cars to drive. MOST people like driving their car and most of the time your not using AP, and a great deal of people could care less about AP. I find myself turning it off much of the time so I can drive and enjoy the great MS capabilities instead of just sitting in it all passive.
As for M III hurting the S/X, won't happen that much as its a smaller car, will always have less range due to that size/steel use, doesn't have a hatchback, and won't be too far all loaded up from the S even (likely).
As for M III hurting the S/X, won't happen that much as its a smaller car, will always have less range due to that size/steel use, doesn't have a hatchback, and won't be too far all loaded up from the S even (likely).
RogerHScott
Active Member
I'll remake the point I've made a couple of times before: it will take Tesla years -- years -- to catch up with just the initial pent-up demand
for the M3, let alone new orders; during that time people wanting to get into a Tesla -- but not able to afford a new MS -- will consider buying a used MS; this spill-over of demand will boost used MS prices easily through the end of '18, quite possibly longer.
I'm inclined to agree that the two cars seem targeted at somewhat different market segments, limiting the likelihood of the 3 stealing from the S, but I can't claim to know the minds of a representative sample of MS owners to know for sure that they wouldn't have purchased a 3 had it been an option.
I know your trying to protect your invest however I completely disagree with you. most people purchased the model S because it was the only descent EV. In 2018 there will be 2 decent EV' s 1 of them happens to be half the price and 400000 people will get one. Not to many people want a large car like the model S so size will not be a deciding factor for most people. Also considering the model 3 will seat 5 adults in comfort and still has a desent boot. The model S will be doomed much faster than you think. It's only saving graze is its looks.
Similar threads
