Model 3 "Production Bottlenecks" lead to lower-than-anticipated Q3 delivery #s

[calisnow]

What will happen obviously - is that whatever number Tesla builds will simply virally grow the car's reputation. Billy Bob let's Jimmy Joe drive his M3 when he gets it home - and now Jimmy wants one. Etc. Etc. Tesla sells all they can build - and as for the people who got pissy waiting - from a long term business standpoint they are entirely irrelevant and their feelings do not matter one iota.

 

[scaesare]

Hey, remember that month in October of 1908 where the Ford Model T hit a snag ramping up?


Yeah... me neither.

 

[fasteddie7]

So they made 260 all electric sedans? That's only 259 more than almost every other manufacturer if you count the concept cars they all have.

 

[Max*]

No one will miss the window...... because the window keeps moving.

My reservation date is now 2 months behind the original date.

Do you have screenshots to back this up? My dates haven't changed, and many others haven't changed. You might be alone in this.

 

[Max*]

So month 2 doubled production over month 1 - and month 3 almost tripled production over month 2. Yet three people disagreed that this is good news and a good ramp. Honestly - TMC is full of so many people who can't see the forest for the trees - that I wonder how they make a living in the real world. Entrepreneurs pushing the boundaries they are not, lol.

View attachment 251456


Big whoop. You have a life - go live it. Your car will show eventually.

Except the math is more like:
Month1: 30
Month2: 75
Month3: 115
Source: Tesla Q3 2017 Vehicle Deliveries and Production

Month 2 was 2.5x month 1. And then month 3 was only 1.5x month 2. So by your theory, and patterns, production is slowing down. Soon the forest will become a single tree! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!


In the long run for most people, it doesn't matter. But plenty of people are on leases or are pushing their current cars to the limits. So by stating arbitrary, incorrect, estimates - pisses off the people who are on a deadline. And for good reason. So while you can play it down that he's gods gift to man kind, other people expect the CEO of a company to not produce tons of bullshit each time he tweets.

 

[voip-ninja]

No - they're not too optimistic. He does it on purpose and has so for many years - and has said so repeatedly in public that he operates this way. The method drives his people to the brink of exhaustion/death but achieves results in the long run that nobody else has managed to do.

Information he's provided can be considered investment/risk guidance so he should be more careful with what he says.

8000, 16000, 32000, 64000. Wowsas - the power of geometric increases is a wonder to behold!

That would be great if there were no upper limit to production capacity, but we already know that top end is somewhere around 10,000-15,000 units per month at the Fremont plant.

Or - what? Dey all gonna buy Bolts? lol.

No, but they might buy another Mercedes, BMW, Lexus or other premium compact sedan they are coming from.

 

[electracity]

I agree that 24 months from now nobody is going to care if production ramp-up took a month or two longer than expected.

Far fewer U.S. model 3 buyers may receive a tax credits than expected. This is probably part of Tesla's choice to lie about being in production.

 

[voip-ninja]

Far fewer U.S. model 3 buyers may receive a tax credits than expected. This is probably part of Tesla's choice to lie about being in production.

If Tesla is smart they will do everything possible to maximize the tax credit for as many of their buyers as possible. Tax incentives have been shown to have a direct effect on EV Sales. In other countries where similar incentives have expired EV sales have cratered.

 

[electracity]

I doubt Tesla will have much control over when tax credits for buyers expires. The most likely scenario will be that they will still be trying to ramp M3 production for U.S. customers as they hit the volumes that begin the reduction of credits.

The upside may be a longer period of credits in the U.S. for the S/X.

I'm not so much discouraged by the Sept. production volume, but rather the apparent state of the software.

 

[voip-ninja]

I doubt Tesla will have much control over when tax credits for buyers expires. The most likely scenario will be that they will still be trying to ramp M3 production for U.S. customers as they hit the volumes that begin the reduction of credits.

The upside may be a longer period of credits in the U.S. for the S/X.

I'm not so much discouraged by the Sept. production volume, but rather the apparent state of the software.

Wrong. Tesla absolutely can control deliveries so that their 200,000th delivery happens on the first day of a new quarter rather than the last day of a previous quarter. Considering that simply delaying a delivery of a handful of vehicles by a week or two could mean tens of millions more in tax incentives due to the way they phase out it would be naive to think they wouldn't try to game the system to their customer's benefit.

 

[run-the-joules]

Or - what? Dey all gonna buy Bolts? lol.

I won't cancel my order to buy a Bolt, but it's entirely possible I'll do it to buy an Audi A4. I'm not a hardcore EV leghumper, so getting another ICE doesn't bother me really. Would I prefer an EV? Sure. Am I going to buy a car I don't like to get an EV? No.

 

[malcolm]

Two words: Production. Hell.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Not sure why people are so surprised by these numbers.

And in any case, it's not like Tesla don't have people to work the problem.

 

[lupend88]

I won't cancel my order to buy a Bolt, but it's entirely possible I'll do it to buy an Audi A4. I'm not a hardcore EV leghumper, so getting another ICE doesn't bother me really. Would I prefer an EV? Sure. Am I going to buy a car I don't like to get an EV? No.

You would change the car you're planning on owning for years because of having to wait a few extra months?

 

[eye.surgeon]

If Musk hadn't created a fairly obviously impossible expectation of rapid production, everyone would be fine with this news. The stock at this point even factors his fantastical predictions into the price.

i really don't care about waiting a few extra months for my car. I do care that the CEO of the company is a somewhat delusional genius.

 

[Sportstick]

I won't cancel my order to buy a Bolt, but it's entirely possible I'll do it to buy an Audi A4. I'm not a hardcore EV leghumper, so getting another ICE doesn't bother me really. Would I prefer an EV? Sure. Am I going to buy a car I don't like to get an EV? No.

As a remorseful buyer of a 2016 Audi A6, there is nothing that would drag me back to an Audi showroom for any vehicle...ever. In dealing with quality issues, I have found the Customer Relations organization (this went beyond the dealer) to be dishonest, deceptive, and unwilling to implement their warranty equally across customers and where it is clearly appropriate to deal with a brake system issue they know about. When a technician reports being directed to complete an RO with false information to support AoA's position, despite the actual car not showing the problem that AoA wants recorded, there is nothing left for me to trust in that organization.

 

[Barklikeadog]

No one is criticizing the fact that making a new car is very difficult and requires a significant time to ramp up production. If Musk hadn't created a fairly obviously impossible expectation of rapid production, everyone would be fine with this news.

Musk is way smarter, richer, and more successful than me. It's nice to know I am clearly better at one thing than him-- communicating accurate expectations to customers. He's terrible at that. At the scary thing is I don't think he knows how terrible he is at it because he keeps doing it. The stock at this point even factors his fantastical predictions into the price.

i really don't care about waiting a few extra months for my car. I do care that the CEO of the company is a somewhat delusional genius.

Terrible predictions are one thing, the real meat and potatoes comes when you sell 150,000 Model 3 cars next year instead of 250,000

And I'm being generous with the 250,000, Musk predicted they would produce 500,000 cars in 2018, 400,000 being Model 3.

 

[dhanson865]

I also see people gushing about how amazing it is that they've doubled production month after month. That's not much to write home about at this point since it would mean 500 cars in October, 1000 cars in November, 2,000 cars in December, 4,000 in January, etc. When you've got a 500K order backlog you are going to have to grow the production capability faster than that.

really you see people gushing about it doubling month after month? I've seen conflicting reports, which rate is correct?

Month1: 30
Month2: 75 (2.5 times month 1)
Month3: 115 (1.53 times month 2)
Month4: ?

July=30
August=60 (2 times month 1)
September=170 (2.83 times month 2)
October=?

which is it and how worked up should I be if it is less or more than 2 times?

I thought the big idea was to let the ramp happen and just be happy when it goes to 4 digits per month and later to 5 digits per month. Maybe be happy if I buy a car and it's delivered to me.

 

[voip-ninja]

really you see people gushing about it doubling month after month? I've seen conflicting reports, which rate is correct?

Month1: 30
Month2: 75 (2.5 times month 1)
Month3: 115 (1.53 times month 2)
Month4: ?

July=30
August=60 (2 times month 1)
September=170 (2.83 times month 2)
October=?

which is it and how worked up should I be if it is less or more than 2 times?

I thought the big idea was to let the ramp happen and just be happy when it goes to 4 digits per month and later to 5 digits per month. Maybe be happy if I buy a car and it's delivered to me.

I don't care about the ramp delay because I'm not biting my nails waiting to take delivery of a car next week. My delivery for early production is Feb-April which honestly is too soon. I'm just irritated with the spin on this that somehow Tesla not hitting their numbers should be ignored.

I believe they will sort them out and production will hit full swing.

I don't know if that happens in 2 weeks or 2 months and I really don't care.... but any substantial ramp delay will have a negative impact on Tesla going into 2018 and could also affect thousands of owners who were hoping to take advantage of the tax credit.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I don't care about the ramp delay because I'm not biting my nails waiting to take delivery of a car next week. My delivery for early production is Feb-April which honestly is too soon. I'm just irritated with the spin on this that somehow Tesla not hitting their numbers should be ignored.

I believe they will sort them out and production will hit full swing.

I don't know if that happens in 2 weeks or 2 months and I really don't care.... but any substantial ramp delay will have a negative impact on Tesla going into 2018 and could also affect thousands of owners who were hoping to take advantage of the tax credit.

Its because folks are all in different boats that there are differing opinions.

Folks who purchased their ( only car) lease based on delivery date promises are in a different boat than those who already have 2-3 cars at their disposal.
One opinion would be more desperate than the other. Its not a right or wrong issue. Its situational.

 

[voip-ninja]

Its because folks are all in different boats that there are differing opinions.

Folks who purchased their ( only car) lease based on delivery date promises are in a different boat than those who already have 2-3 cars at their disposal.
One opinion would be more desperate than the other. Its not a right or wrong issue. Its situational.

Anyone banking on a very early delivery date who knows Tesla's track record on this stuff deserves the bruised feelings if they thought this time things would be different.