TurboBear
Member
Also, I am very curious if this is the auto or manual drive select in action.
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Also, I am very curious if this is the auto or manual drive select in action.
If they're interchangeable, YOU'LL be able to interchange them too in 5 years if you want to.
derichio02
Member
Still no VINs or reviews? I have an order with tentative dates 3/1-3/31 but kind of unnerving that there are no new details in weeks. I know I'm not alone but hey, had to vent publicly at least once 
TurboBear
Member
Still no VINs or reviews? I have an order with tentative dates 3/1-3/31 but kind of unnerving that there are no new details in weeks. I know I'm not alone but hey, had to vent publicly at least once
Pure unsubstantiated speculation: they're producing vehicles right now and sending them to the east coast, staging them at the Birmingham hub while they finalize the software. I suspect we'll see a rush of assigned VINs in early-to-mid March for both coasts, subject to software development.
I am having trouble imagining a scenario where the assembly line is not in operation at this point.
reddy
Active Member
There are guys flying drones over the Fremont plant, and people who take pictures of the plant parking lot. We see photos of cars on car carriers headed to the railheads and loading docks for the cargo ships.
Not a single one has had a Model S refresh on it.
If they are producing lots and lots of cars, they sure are good about keeping them hidden.
OTOH, the Tesla sales advisor told me I'd get a VIN just as the car was starting production. That was true when my last 3 Teslas were produced in 2013, 2018, and 2019. I have yet to get a VIN from my Dec 20 order.
I'm really concerned that there is a huge production delay, and if it is a 2 month delay that's going to impact the Model S and X sales figures significantly for Q1.
TurboBear
Member
You may unfortunately be right. However, what's confusing is that Tesla recently updated the estimated delivery of Plaid and LR to as little as 3 and 5 weeks, respectively, for orders placed today. Given the likely backlog of orders I'm skeptical those could be true. Though I've been following Tesla long enough to know how squishy their timeline claims can be.
Or perhaps their conversion rate on these dramatically higher priced vehicles is lower than we might expect.
Hayseed_MS
Spreader of "Endless Non Sequitur"
If they are keeping their promise of refresh conversion orders having priority, then the website times make sense for new orders as they build out the conversion orders. Europe is being told 2022 for delivery so they do not seem to be sending to Europe first.
With that all being said, we should be seeing a few cars coming out at least in staging or transport by now. But if all they are doing is teh S, they can put those out pretty quick. This is my story and I am sticking to it for my own sanity (and so I do not cancel both orders and go Audi or Porsche).
With that all being said, we should be seeing a few cars coming out at least in staging or transport by now. But if all they are doing is teh S, they can put those out pretty quick. This is my story and I am sticking to it for my own sanity (and so I do not cancel both orders and go Audi or Porsche).
Well if they have enough orders consume capacity for the rest of this qtr, there really is no hurry to get review units out. I do think they need to get a decent head start on their backlog before the end of the qtr otherwise it will mess with their Q1 number, so maybe being on the west coast will be helpful.
jeffdom1978
Member
I believe it only takes 2.5 days to build a Model S. So they could be still producing test models and tweaking the tooling.. If they open the floodgates they can produce enough to start shipping in a matter of days
derichio02
Member
My estimated delivery just changed from 3/1-3/31 to just "March". Not sure if they are updating dates for everyone.
Mine still says "We will reach out to you to schedule your delivery date. Delivery time frame is based on order date, profile submission, delivery location and vehicle configuration."
TurboBear
Member
Hayseed_MS
Spreader of "Endless Non Sequitur"
Mine just changed to "You will get the vehicle when you get it. Now please stop calling Mr. Musk at home"
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Hayseed_MS
Spreader of "Endless Non Sequitur"
Interesting that they took off estimated delivery times on the first order page for the S. Still listing for the Plaid+ model but not the other two.
MarcG
Active Member
reddy
Active Member
Of course 5 weeks would be just at the end of March. I too am skeptical that they can ramp up and produce 3.5 months of order backlog, all in the month of March.
FWIW, the Model X delivery times on a new order today is "May - June" . Model S will get all the production resources dedicated initially, which will mitigate some of the issue.
TurboBear
Member
I have an e-tron. Masterfully built with beautiful materials, but range is limited and it’s a software mess. Just be sure you don’t need to rely on the Electrify America network for DC fast charging. I could write a book on the number of times I’ve nearly been stranded or ended up in the seediest Walmart parking lots.
lowtek
Active Member
Unless they have them hidden somewhere, there not a single Model S at the Birmingham hub.
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