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Wiki Model S Delivery Update

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The longer we have to wait, the more concerned I get that the final product is going to be a "screw it, ship it" situation, like with the holiday update where it was silently delayed, then people started getting suspicious and what we got was nothing short of terrible and disappointing with a promise to get even more cool features once some bugs were fixed. Yeah that hasn't arrived 3 months later.

I'm really starting to feel like Elon forced Tesla to bite off more radical features than they could actually reasonably address. A likely scenario is that they keep finding more and more bugs which would align with Elon's tweet.

IDK, have a bad feeling about this. A silent delay and EOQ factors to me mean that at some point in the next week, sure they will get out VINs, but the cars are going to be littered with problems. Looking at it another way, this late in the game, what kind of issues could they be fixing that would cause a several week delay? I just don't see an answer that doesn't equal trouble.

Again, wish official communication would come out and if there are known bugs, just tell us it's going to be Q2 for god's sake. All of my money is on the dumb "guess your gear" feature that isn't needed. I mean that whole thing sounds like an opportunity for a disaster. Way too many edge cases. Yeah, hmm, IDK.
I dunno, I'm not reading anything into that Elon tweet about issues. He says so much cryptic, random stuff, and most of it usually ends up meaning something completely different than what most folks would infer. There may be nothing at all wrong with the car, and he could be talking about transportation, distribution, or delivery issues.

Based on all the evidence, my guess is that the cars are fully baked and ready to go, just waiting on final word from NHTSA on whether they can ship with a yoke. So Tesla starts the line and working process improvements to increase output in the meantime with a backup plan to retrofit depending on NHTSA's final call. It's why we're not seeing them churned out by the hundreds yet: they don't want to throw away TOO much money on yokes they have to trash, yet they want to be prepared with cars sitting in dealer lots with contingency wheels to hit the ground running when NHTSA gives the word. Theoretically this would let them have at least some cars delivered by EOQ. This scenario lines up both with Elon's cryptic tweet about issues and the NHTSA recent statement. It also fits with the original expected timeline of shipping in late Feb/March; Tesla probably got estimated approval timelines and (reasonably) based their delivery announcements on them. This is all well and good, but federal bureaucracies do NOT march to the beat of anyone's drum, and I can tell you from experience that these kinds of regulatory bodies are almost always untimely and disorganized.
 
I dunno, I'm not reading anything into that Elon tweet about issues. He says so much cryptic, random stuff, and most of it usually ends up meaning something completely different than what most folks would infer. There may be nothing at all wrong with the car, and he could be talking about transportation, distribution, or delivery issues.

Based on all the evidence, my guess is that the cars are fully baked and ready to go, just waiting on final word from NHTSA on whether they can ship with a yoke. So Tesla starts the line and working process improvements to increase output in the meantime with a backup plan to retrofit depending on NHTSA's final call. It's why we're not seeing them churned out by the hundreds yet: they don't want to throw away TOO much money on yokes they have to trash, yet they want to be prepared with cars sitting in dealer lots with contingency wheels to hit the ground running when NHTSA gives the word. Theoretically this would let them have at least some cars delivered by EOQ. This scenario lines up both with Elon's cryptic tweet about issues and the NHTSA recent statement. It also fits with the original expected timeline of shipping in late Feb/March; Tesla probably got estimated approval timelines and (reasonably) based their delivery announcements on them. This is all well and good, but federal bureaucracies do NOT march to the beat of anyone's drum, and I can tell you from experience that these kinds of regulatory bodies are almost always untimely and disorganized.

I can see this. Would also explain why they are out driving testers with wheels "Oh *sugar* guys, the yoke might not get approved in America, let's make sure to update the driving dynamics for the wheel just in case." Fair point. Either way - a bit short-sighted to not have gotten this process started like last summer and advertise something you don't even know will be approved. So regardless how you look at it, something ain't right lol.
 
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Ah, no.

As in "NO!"

IIRC, there's a $40k difference in price between a "Base" Model S Long Range and Model S Plaid (former "Performance"), $80k to $120k.

There will be NO upgrade to the "Base" Model S as that would really frost folks that ponied up the extra $40k (of which I'll posit some $35k is pure profit:).
I am hoping that they'll eventually (maybe sooner rather than later) offer an OTA performance boost a la the Model 3/Y. I'm not asking for much, maybe just shave .5 sec off the 0-60 for somewhere around $3K? Alright, $4K if necessary LOL
 
I am hoping that they'll eventually (maybe sooner rather than later) offer an OTA performance boost a la the Model 3/Y. I'm not asking for much, maybe just shave .5 sec off the 0-60 for somewhere around $3K? Alright, $4K if necessary LOL

Well right now the LR is listed at 3.1 seconds without rollout (so like 2.8 seconds with it) vs. the Plaid at 1.99 with rollout. If they gave the LR a 0.5 second boost it would be ~2.3 seconds 0-60 with rollout. I think that would eat into Plaid sales too much (unless the plaid ends up being more than just a power boost)
 
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Well right now the LR is listed at 3.1 seconds without rollout (so like 2.8 seconds with it) vs. the Plaid at 1.99 with rollout. If they gave the LR a 0.5 second boost it would be ~2.3 seconds 0-60 with rollout. I think that would eat into Plaid sales too much (unless the plaid ends up being more than just a power boost)
If not .5 then .4 or .3, I'd still go for it. Look, that's exactly what they did with the 3/Y and didn't seem worried about cannibalizing the Performance sales, so why not with the S/X?
 
The longer we have to wait, the more concerned I get that the final product is going to be a "screw it, ship it" situation, like with the holiday update where it was silently delayed, then people started getting suspicious and what we got was nothing short of terrible and disappointing with a promise to get even more cool features once some bugs were fixed. Yeah that hasn't arrived 3 months later.

I'm really starting to feel like Elon forced Tesla to bite off more radical features than they could actually reasonably address. A likely scenario is that they keep finding more and more bugs which would align with Elon's tweet.

IDK, have a bad feeling about this. A silent delay and EOQ factors to me mean that at some point in the next week, sure they will get out VINs, but the cars are going to be littered with problems. Looking at it another way, this late in the game, what kind of issues could they be fixing that would cause a several week delay? I just don't see an answer that doesn't equal trouble.

Again, wish official communication would come out and if there are known bugs, just tell us it's going to be Q2 for god's sake. All of my money is on the dumb "guess your gear" feature that isn't needed. I mean that whole thing sounds like an opportunity for a disaster. Way too many edge cases. Yeah, hmm, IDK.
I'll be honest--you should assume there are going to be some bugs out the door--these cars are too complex for everything to be perfect. The VIN on our Model X was 4xx and there were a couple of bugs with the FWD sensor SW, but for context, the car has served us well and mostly trouble free (bad MCU) for 5 years now, including the FWDs.

Also be open that the delay has nothing to do with the product--perhaps the are waiting for official approval on the yoke steering wheel or the like.
 
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I'll be honest--you should assume there are going to be some bugs out the door--these cars are too complex for everything to be perfect. The VIN on our Model X was 4xx and there were a couple of bugs with the FWD sensor SW, but for context, the car has served us well and mostly trouble free (bad MCU) for 5 years now, including the FWDs.

Also be open that the delay has nothing to do with the product--perhaps the are waiting for official approval on the yoke steering wheel or the like.

Well, given my 2020 Model 3 had issues with:

- The back up camera
- The bluetooth calling
- Trim that broke
- Paint from that factory that was scratched significantly
- A speaker in the door that went out
- A seat sensor that failed

trust me, I'm not expecting perfection by any stretch of the imagination. The cars drive so incredibly well, but I'm very in tune with expectations on quality/bugs. I will say that the gear-guessing, if it has a ton of bugs, will be a complete nightmare.
 
I am hoping that they'll eventually (maybe sooner rather than later) offer an OTA performance boost a la the Model 3/Y. I'm not asking for much, maybe just shave .5 sec off the 0-60 for somewhere around $3K? Alright, $4K if necessary LOL
Shaving 0.5. seconds off 3.0 seconds is a huge difference. You are talking about ~ 25% faster acceleration, meaning 25% more force. In the ICE world that is the difference between a sports car and a supercar, and I presume you know the price difference there.
 
Shaving 0.5. seconds off 3.0 seconds is a huge difference. You are talking about ~ 25% faster acceleration, meaning 25% more force. In the ICE world that is the difference between a sports car and a supercar, and I presume you know the price difference there.
Yes, again, just looking for something similar to what they did with the 3/Y. My wife drives the M3 and she wouldn't let me order the OTA power boost. I'll drive the MS and I'll take whatever boost they offer, thank you very much.
 
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Yes, again, just looking for something similar to what they did with the 3/Y. My wife drives the M3 and she wouldn't let me order the OTA power boost. I'll drive the MS and I'll take whatever boost they offer, thank you very much.

It may just be psychological. 2.9 sounds so much faster than 3.1 in my mind. It is like $1.99 sound quite a bit cheaper than something $2.01
 
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Holy crap - shocking Lucid out-engineered Tesla to get the most efficient & first EV to 500 miles of range. Yikes. Though to be fair, Tesla basically neglected the Model S/X over the past two years in favor of the volume cars, whereas Lucid has solely been focused on the expensive one.
Until you can take delivery of the Lucid, you cannot say that. It will be interesting to see a showdown between the two. I am all in with Tesla but that would put doubts in my mind I hate to say...
 
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Until you can take delivery of the Lucid, you cannot say that. It will be interesting to see a showdown between the two. I am all in with Tesla but that would put doubts in my mind I hate to say...

Fair. I do like the look of the Model S more (the backend of the Air looks - strange). But it does seem from a drivetrain/powertrain they are going to be ahead for 6 months now. Though - who the hell knows. They just delayed their stuff probably 6 months or more as well. I also doubt they are going to be delivering thousands of units this year - my opinion.

I also like the screen setup of the Tesla more (the Air has the one screen that floats randomly on the dash...not sure what the designer guy was smokin when he did that). So yeah, I'm not going to be buying one regardless, but I do think it shows Tesla really did ignore its flagship cars for a couple years.
 
Holy crap - shocking Lucid out-engineered Tesla to get the most efficient & first EV to 500 miles of range. Yikes. Though to be fair, Tesla basically neglected the Model S/X over the past two years in favor of the volume cars, whereas Lucid has solely been focused on the expensive one.
Or might just mean they are prioritizing cell supply for the CT and Semi and see meeting that demand.
 
Or might just mean they are prioritizing cell supply for the CT and Semi and see meeting that demand.
I don't understand how they are going to deliver the CT for the price they promised. $70k for trimotor with 500 miles range...they equivalent model S is $150k!! Ill be thrilled if they do (and I have an order in!) I just don't understand how it will be possible in just 9 months
 
I don't understand how they are going to deliver the CT for the price they promised. $70k for trimotor with 500 miles range...they equivalent model S is $150k!! Ill be thrilled if they do (and I have an order in!) I just don't understand how it will be possible in just 9 months

There's no way - even if the CT is somewhat "bare bones" - it still has an air suspension, a lot of batteries, and a lot of range. The pricing structure makes no sense. I can't imagine anyone has a CT by EOY and I definitely don't see tri-motor CTs being delivered by EOY. You'd have to think it would be after the Plaid+.
 
So regarding the Plaid+ estimated delivery being "Mid 2022" on the custom order page, do you think that is when delivery of the Plaid+ will begin for all orders or just orders placed today? I placed an order for the Plaid on battery day, which was converted to Plaid+, but there's no time estimate on that RN#, it just says "prepare for delivery." 😐