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Wiki Model S Delivery Update

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Hi all first model s on order current 2020 model 3 owner though. Really lookik forward to the S. I got the Long Range on order and was wondering what the likelihood would be that it would offer Ludicrous mode. Anyone know or have ideas on it?
Welcome!
Ah, no.

As in "NO!"

IIRC, there's a $40k difference in price between a "Base" Model S Long Range and Model S Plaid (former "Performance"), $80k to $120k.

There will be NO upgrade to the "Base" Model S as that would really frost folks that ponied up the extra $40k (of which I'll posit some $35k is pure profit:).
Ludicrous is gone now. Same with “Insane” which is on my P90D X. Plaid is all that’s left. Or Plaid +. The specs you see for all models are the specs you’ll get.
 
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Ah, no.

As in "NO!"

IIRC, there's a $40k difference in price between a "Base" Model S Long Range and Model S Plaid (former "Performance"), $80k to $120k.

There will be NO upgrade to the "Base" Model S as that would really frost folks that ponied up the extra $40k (of which I'll posit some $35k is pure profit:).
I wouldn't be surprised if they later do add a 10-20k option to uncork it to like 2.4sec 0-60 it's possible to go faster using a dual motor set up but yeh if people want a guarantee faster speed plaid is the way to go.
 
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Hi all first model s on order current 2020 model 3 owner though. Really lookik forward to the S. I got the Long Range on order and was wondering what the likelihood would be that it would offer Ludicrous mode. Anyone know or have ideas on it?
0-60 in 3.1 seconds as advertised is equivalent to 2.8 or 2.9 seconds with 1-foot rollout excluded, which is how they were measuring previous performance models.
This is what Ludicrous used to get you on a P85D and early P90D. So, technically, the new LR is already ludicrous ;)
 
Has there been any chatter about a difference in seats between the new LR and Plaid models? I noticed a difference in the bolsters between the two. The LR seat bolsters are smooth, the Plaid ones are more perforated and the stitching seems different. Doesn’t seem like Tesla would have two different seats so I wonder if the LR seat image in the configurator are incorrect.
 
Has there been any chatter about a difference in seats between the new LR and Plaid models? I noticed a difference in the bolsters between the two. The LR seat bolsters are smooth, the Plaid ones are more perforated and the stitching seems different. Doesn’t seem like Tesla would have two different seats so I wonder if the LR seat image in the configurator are incorrect.
I am pretty sure all the interior shots are renders, so I would not read too much into them at this point unless the detail description says something specific.
 
See top comment. The rendering problem is not an intentional software choice.
It absolutely, positively is. There are two reasons it happens:
1) They do not apply any post-processing to smooth things in the UI layer, instead favoring more raw output of the perception system. The idea here being that improvements to perception is the correct way to eliminate dancing cars and such. Fix them, don’t hide them.
2) The shimmering/bouncing lines are an intentional UI decision to communicate lack of confidence to the driver. This isn’t news, this is what they’ve always done.

Neither have anything to do with MCU/infotainment hardware capabilities. That would never make any sense. Frame rate and detail of the 3D models, sure, but not the things you’re talking about here.

The only other possibilities would be:
- They’re software bugs that haven’t been fixed after years of being out there
- They are too lazy or unskilled to add basic post-processing to interpolate/smooth the raw data

I know with high confidence that neither of these is true (or at least that these aren’t the primary culprits). This is very evident in their code, in the behavior of the dev/debug visualizations, and in their general approach - never mind that both decisions make perfect sense. But at least those explanations are within the realm of possibility. A lack of CPU or GPU power in the MCU is not a valid explanation.
 
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It absolutely, positively is. There are two reasons it happens:
1) They do not apply any post-processing to smooth things in the UI layer, instead favoring more raw output of the perception system. The idea here being that improvements to perception is the correct way to eliminate dancing cars and such. Fix them, don’t hide them.
2) The shimmering/bouncing lines are an intentional UI decision to communicate lack of confidence to the driver. This isn’t news, this is what they’ve always done.

Neither have anything to do with MCU/infotainment hardware capabilities. That would never make any sense. Frame rate and detail of the 3D models, sure, but not the things you’re talking about here.

The only other possibilities would be:
- They’re software bugs that haven’t been fixed after years of being out there
- They are too lazy or unskilled to add basic post-processing to interpolate/smooth the raw data

I know with high confidence that neither of these is true (or at least that these aren’t the primary culprits). This is very evident in their code, in the behavior of the dev/debug visualizations, and in their general approach - never mind that both decisions make perfect sense. But at least those explanations are within the realm of possibility. A lack of CPU or GPU power in the MCU is not a valid explanation.

What you are trying to prove is intention. You are making the assumption that they are not doing post processing on renders to show a lack of confidence in a system that they WANT you to use and are ACTIVELY selling.

I’m not saying the issue doesn’t exist, but I do not believe they would intentionally do something so subtle as to not do post processing on rendering to hint that they want you to see that you should not have 100% confidence in a system that THEY call Full Self Driving.
 
What you are trying to prove is intention. You are making the assumption that they are not doing post processing on renders to show a lack of confidence in a system that they WANT you to use and are ACTIVELY selling.

I’m not saying the issue doesn’t exist, but I do not believe they would intentionally do something so subtle as to not do post processing on rendering to hint that they want you to see that you should not have 100% confidence in a system that THEY call Full Self Driving.
They do *not* call the current system “Full Self Driving”. That’s a future thing that doesn’t exist today. Even the upcoming “City Streets” feature will be an L2 ADAS for the foreseeable future, it is NOT an autonomous mode and it requires an attentive human driver who must prevent the system from doing anything dangerous.

I’m telling you how it works and why. The system nags you and tells you to pay attention and to be ready to take over *because* you are not supposed to have 100% confidence in it. The entire design is all about providing useful functionality while ensuring safe operations and minimizing the chance that drivers become complacent.

It’s weird that you’re trying to argue about this when it’s clear that you are not at all familiar with the subject matter.
 
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The longer we have to wait, the more concerned I get that the final product is going to be a "screw it, ship it" situation, like with the holiday update where it was silently delayed, then people started getting suspicious and what we got was nothing short of terrible and disappointing with a promise to get even more cool features once some bugs were fixed. Yeah that hasn't arrived 3 months later.

I'm really starting to feel like Elon forced Tesla to bite off more radical features than they could actually reasonably address. A likely scenario is that they keep finding more and more bugs which would align with Elon's tweet.

IDK, have a bad feeling about this. A silent delay and EOQ factors to me mean that at some point in the next week, sure they will get out VINs, but the cars are going to be littered with problems. Looking at it another way, this late in the game, what kind of issues could they be fixing that would cause a several week delay? I just don't see an answer that doesn't equal trouble.

Again, wish official communication would come out and if there are known bugs, just tell us it's going to be Q2 for god's sake. All of my money is on the dumb "guess your gear" feature that isn't needed. I mean that whole thing sounds like an opportunity for a disaster. Way too many edge cases. Yeah, hmm, IDK.
 
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The longer we have to wait, the more concerned I get that the final product is going to be a "screw it, ship it" situation, like with the holiday update where it was silently delayed, then people started getting suspicious and what we got was nothing short of terrible and disappointing with a promise to get even more cool features once some bugs were fixed. Yeah that hasn't arrived 3 months later.

I'm really starting to feel like Elon forced Tesla to bite off more radical features than they could actually reasonably address. A likely scenario is that they keep finding more and more bugs which would align with Elon's tweet.

IDK, have a bad feeling about this. A silent delay and EOQ factors to me mean that at some point in the next week, sure they will get out VINs, but the cars are going to be littered with problems. Looking at it another way, this late in the game, what kind of issues could they be fixing that would cause a several week delay? I just don't see an answer that doesn't equal trouble.

Again, wish official communication would come out and if there are known bugs, just tell us it's going to be Q2 for god's sake. All of my money is on the dumb "guess your gear" feature that isn't needed. I mean that whole thing sounds like an opportunity for a disaster. Way too many edge cases. Yeah, hmm, IDK.
The way I’ve been looking at it is there are a good number of people out there who still have “March” listed as their delivery date, and we know that some Model S’s have rolled off the line over the last week. If there was a serious problem with a part that required that part to be redesigned or remanufactured, the chances of hitting March are probably zero. My guess is that the video we saw of the S’s last week was their attempt to start up the production line and that they discovered a few quality control issues along the way. They probably aren’t major issues, but I doubt Tesla wants to deliver the new cars if the story about them is going to be about poor QC instead of how awesome they are.
 
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There are apparently some aggressively and worryingly ignorant people on this forum. Telling people that AutoPilot (or any currently available “FSD”features) are 100% reliable and meant to be completely trusted by drivers is not just blatantly incorrect, but irresponsible. Even reckless. Do not do this.
 
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The way I’ve been looking at it is there are a good number of people out there who still have “March” listed as their delivery date, and we know that some Model S’s have rolled off the line over the last week. If there was a serious problem with a part that required that part to be redesigned or remanufactured, the chances of hitting March are probably zero. My guess is that the video we saw of the S’s last week was their attempt to start up the production line and that they discovered a few quality control issues along the way. They probably aren’t major issues, but I doubt Tesla wants to deliver the new cars if the story about them is going to be about poor QC instead of how awesome they are.

What I will say is...people oversold how much was in the lot. If you look at the pictures, there were old Model S cars, Model Xs (which we know aren't being delivered for at least a month) 3/Ys as well. Also, we saw a red Model S with a yoke on a truck - but it was missing interior trim like the other testers. My POV is that the pictures we saw from Tesmanian were the next round of testers, not actual cars getting delivered.

But even regardless of this, the lines have been operational (though likely in a QA/training mode) since mid-Jan. Elon on the earnings call late Jan said Feb for deliveries. So what is going on that, 2 weeks after the workers were brought back in and Elon still believing Feb was a good timeline to not even having large amounts of cars off of the line an entire month later and 3 weeks past the initial estimate?

All of that leads me to believe there are some serious issues.
 
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2) The shimmering/bouncing lines are an intentional UI decision to communicate lack of confidence to the driver. This isn’t news, this is what they’ve always done.

Neither have anything to do with MCU/infotainment hardware capabilities. That would never make any sense. Frame rate and detail of the 3D models, sure, but not the things you’re talking about here.
...
I think you're making a pretty big deductive leap here. I'll admit I'm a layman in these matters with limited software/electrical engineering background, but I'm struggling to understand why you're saying that it can't be due to a lack of processing power. I mean, there is a finite limit to the processing power of the CPU/GPU, so it's not unreasonable to assume that if enough cycles are tied up doing other things, it just cannot be done. After all, why would a nice smooth, post-processed visualization be a priority? Frankly, the driver doesn't NEED a visualization at all.

I'm curious what you're referring to when you say "this isn't news, this is what they've always done." Is this something that Tesla has actually stated? "Isn't news" and "what they've always done" indicate to me that there is authoritative data here.
They do *not* call the current system “Full Self Driving”.
Not to pick nits, but though they don't call the feature that describes the functionality of the current "Beta FSD" (i.e. Autosteer on City Streets), FSD, they do call the system "Full Self Driving Capability". There are only two options for Tesla cars purchased today: Autopilot, and Full Self Driving Capability.
 
There are apparently some aggressively and worryingly ignorant people on this forum. Telling people that AutoPilot (or any currently available “FSD”features) are 100% reliable and meant to be completely trusted by drivers is not just blatantly incorrect, but irresponsible. Even reckless. Do not do this.

No one is saying to trust the system implicitly. We just have a disagreement about the intentions of a company and the fundamental reasons they made the choice to not fix certain UI renders.

I’ll go a step further.

To anyone reading this. FSD/Autosteer is not 100% reliable. It is not a fool proof system. There are MAJOR flaws. How do I know this? From using it. Not from a deduction I made in software choice. I trust the system to be vigilant of my surroundings but I trust my instincts to react to whatever may come. False alarms happen. Phantom breaking is a real thing. Be careful, be cautious.
 
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