Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[aerodyne]

Reading today's news, and combining that with all the random tweets since 2018, the progress of the rollout, adding a dash of FUD, I come up with a new Mantra, inspired by Elon's take on service:

The best Tesla to own is no Tesla.

I'll be keeping my nose cone car, and my plaid and CT reservations, but looking to rent on Turo or similar service, when cars are available.

Last time I checked, one could rent a nice MS for 60 days a year and match the fixed and running costs of ownership for a year.

Plus, you will probably not need to use it that often if you have a daily driver.

All that money one saves could be invested in other things obviously, even TSLA.

 

[omarsultan]

I don't buy this, at all. Lucid clearly irked him a bit. That's pretty clear.

Yeah, I noticed this too--it's much easier to welcome the competition when there is none

I’m very confident this new generation Model S/X will be built so much better. Also, for those of us that care about performance, the Mach E and ID4 won’t cut it. I probably sound like a Tesla fanboy; hmm I guess I sort of am

That is the thing though--not everyone cares about performance as their #1 buying criteria. The EVs hitting the market have the same range that Tesla did with the original S and X so clearly they are viable from that perspective, at least as daily drivers/city cars. With that covered, folks will start to look at other things like build quality, service experience, utility, Apple or Android integration, etc. Ridiculous 0-60 times are great, but those other things have day-to-day impact on how much you enjoy your car (or don't).

 

[Meccanica]

I don't buy this, at all. Lucid clearly irked him a bit. That's pretty clear.

It irked him because he does not like Peter Rowlinson, after he left Tesla in a bad position. This has nothing to do with Tesla not welcoming competition. He seems to be perfectly friendly with Diess at dubs and has recently complimented Ford as the only other US mfg that has not filed bankruptcy.

 

[elguapo]

On competition - I don't think Elon cares. I DO believe he feels any competition is good and if Tesla creates an entire EV market, which it has, he's reached his goal. Anything else is gravy and, to be honest, with all these manufacturers coming to market, he's won already. Now that the larger companies are making EVs, I think Rivian and Lucid will have a much tougher time getting traction - pun intended. Tesla came into the market when there was effectively no competition from the incumbents.

Ford - SO ODD, I know, but I look at the portrait/vertical screen in the Mustang E and think "gosh, that looks awful!". My, my how things change.

On build quality - If Tesla could figure it out, they would have. They don't really care and I don't think they will when there is more competition. As folks said, Tesla (apparently) learned nothing from the S to the X to the 3 to they Y. ALL had pretty significant issues to start. Fit and finish on the refreshed S and X will, I expect, be perfectly mediocre.

Range - I still think people will have range anxiety without true superchargers. Yes, initial Tesla's had the range Audi and VW are offering today - but that was 9 years ago. The "cheap" 3 has 240 miles or so today.

Design - I actually enjoy Tesla's minimalist design. I like no knobs, buttons, etc as I have said before. I couldn't drive a BMW or Audi again unless they, too, adopted that design strategy. BUT, that's why (hopefully) there will be many choices for BEV in the future and everyone can get something that hits their needs.

 

[omarsultan]

Range - I still think people will have range anxiety without true superchargers. Yes, initial Tesla's had the range Audi and VW are offering today - but that was 9 years ago. The "cheap" 3 has 240 miles or so today.

I think the range thing gets over-played. Yeah, you can now theoretically drive from LA to SF on a single charge, but there are very few folks that do that on a regular basis. Something like 200 miles of real world range is enough for most folks to go about their daily business (commute, pick up the kids, shop, run errands) without worry about running out of electrons. For summer vacation and trips to grandma's over the holidays, most folks are keeping an ICE around so they have that as their travel car. Don't get me wrong, I think more range is great, but past a certain point, it stops being an over-riding concern and other everyday things start to carry more weight.

Design - I actually enjoy Tesla's minimalist design. I like no knobs, buttons, etc as I have said before. I couldn't drive a BMW or Audi again unless they, too, adopted that design strategy. BUT, that's why (hopefully) there will be many choices for BEV in the future and everyone can get something that hits their needs.

Agree--I am glad they are sticking with it

 

[Str8down]

I think the range thing gets over-played. Yeah, you can now theoretically drive from LA to SF on a single charge, but there are very few folks that do that on a regular basis. Something like 200 miles of real world range is enough for most folks to go about their daily business (commute, pick up the kids, shop, run errands) without worry about running out of electrons. For summer vacation and trips to grandma's over the holidays, most folks are keeping an ICE around so they have that as their travel car. Don't get me wrong, I think more range is great, but past a certain point, it stops being an over-riding concern and other everyday things start to carry more weight.

This may be the case for a few people, but I'm pretty sure its actually the opposite of true. I never even considered a Tesla until they got over 400mi or range (knowing that 400 isnt real and more like 350 at best). Granted, this is the S forum, but most buyers of Tesla, don't buy an S, and most can't afford to have an ICE car just laying around for special occasions. Most people want their 1 car to do it all, otherwise, why do we need an S to do 0-60 in 2 sec? Just get a sports car for that. And why do people complain about the interior quality of the pre-refresh S? Just go buy a Mercedes for a nice interior. Like I said, most people want 1 car to service all their needs/desires, and range is a HUGE one.

My best friend lives 320 miles away, door to door. I never stop when driving to his house, so I would never have considered a Tesla before. I don't want to have to stop, and I sure as hell don't want to have to stop for 30min.

 

[omarsultan]

This may be the case for a few people, but I'm pretty sure its actually the opposite of true. I never even considered a Tesla until they got over 400mi or range (knowing that 400 isnt real and more like 350 at best). Granted, this is the S forum, but most buyers of Tesla, don't buy an S, and most can't afford to have an ICE car just laying around for special occasions. Most people want their 1 car to do it all, otherwise, why do we need an S to do 0-60 in 2 sec? Just get a sports car for that. And why do people complain about the interior quality of the pre-refresh S? Just go buy a Mercedes for a nice interior. Like I said, most people want 1 car to service all their needs/desires, and range is a HUGE one.

My best friend lives 320 miles away, door to door. I never stop when driving to his house, so I would never have considered a Tesla before. I don't want to have to stop, and I sure as hell don't want to have to stop for 30min.

Also a fair point

 

[Fred42]

I’m very confident this new generation Model S/X will be built so much better.

Wishful thinking. I doubt it.

Also, for those of us that care about performance, the Mach E and ID4 won’t cut it.

Agree

 

[lzolman]

I think the range thing gets over-played. Yeah, you can now theoretically drive from LA to SF on a single charge, but there are very few folks that do that on a regular basis. Something like 200 miles of real world range is enough for most folks to go about their daily business (commute, pick up the kids, shop, run errands) without worry about running out of electrons. For summer vacation and trips to grandma's over the holidays, most folks are keeping an ICE around so they have that as their travel car. Don't get me wrong, I think more range is great, but past a certain point, it stops being an over-riding concern and other everyday things start to carry more weight.


Agree--I am glad they are sticking with it

My wife and I have made two cross-country trips in her LR M3 (each around 1200 miles each way) and with a modicum of planning ahead we experienced zero range anxiety. Part of the fun was stalking hotels that had destination chargers, and we ended up discovering some great places that way. 300 miles of range is plenty for those "trips to grandma's" and 400+ will be even better in my MS!

 

[lzolman]

I never even considered a Tesla until they got over 400mi or range (knowing that 400 isnt real and more like 350 at best).

Um, no, the rated range is really the actual useful range. When you charge up overnight, let's say (because you'd probably not choose to go all the way to 100% if using a supercharger) and start with 400 miles, you can go to 0 before you stop. So if you're going to cut it close, you just select your charging stops more carefully.

The time the miles "don't really count" is during day-to-day home-based charging. With our 300-mile-range M3, we charge it up when it gets down around 100-130 and only charge it up to about 260. That extends the life and useful capacity of the battery. But that approach is unnecessary when on a long haul trip.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

Have not drank the Kool-Aid until now due tot he dismal long range capability. Now that it is pushing 400 miles, I can utilize it much more.

 

[digitek]

I don't buy this, at all. Lucid clearly irked him a bit. That's pretty clear.

Completely agree. He has been consistent in his message that competition is good for the EV Market, but clearly wants to ensure Tesla is at the top of performance in virtually ever category. Within days of the Taycan posting times at Nurburgring Tesla was shipping out a prototype Model S. And within a few weeks of Lucid Air announcing pricing Tesla surprisingly had new updates and Plaid options to compete. So in that sense, he's right - competition is very good for the EV market!

 

[quarmy]

Have not drank the Kool-Aid until now due tot he dismal long range capability. Now that it is pushing 400 miles, I can utilize it much more.

Yeah you start hitting the useful limits of how far people are typically willing to drive in a day. A 600 mile day is a really long day of driving for most people but that is really just one stop of 15-30 minutes if you start from 100% on a 400+mile battery and find a v3 recharger somewhere along the way (and end up at a destination charger).

412 feels exponentially better than 259 (my current S75d which has actually degraded to about 230) once you start going longer distances. If superchargers take you to 80% that is 330 miles on the refresh and 180 miles on the current vehicle. Figure that you are looking for that next supercharger at less than 50 miles. Refresh gets you 270 (330-50) useful miles before recharging while a vehicle such as my current S (or pretty much any of the current competitors being released) gets you about 130 (180-50). Want to be required to stop every (<)2 hours or every 3 1/2 hours? That is an enormous difference when we look at distances drivers typically go and routine driving habits.

For me in the Bay Area the new range also makes day trips a non-issue without any recharging at all. Monterey and back? Easy? Tahoe? Same (ok this might push it depending on where in tahoe I go). Gold country? Same. Wine Country/Coast? Same. I simply can't do that with a vehicle rated in the low to mid 200s. It doesn't mean that is a deal breaker but the choice of stopping v. not stopping on trips such as those is a no-brainer.

 

[omarsultan]

I have to admit, the range conversation makes me chuckle a bit--it's good to see how the conversation has evolved. The SR Model 3 has more range than either my old S or my wife's X, but that has never stopped us from traveling. As @lzolman noted up-thread, a bit of planning makes a sub-250 mile range workable. I have not idea what I will do with 375 miles of range.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

I have to admit, the range conversation makes me chuckle a bit--it's good to see how the conversation has evolved. The SR Model 3 has more range than either my old S or my wife's X, but that has never stopped us from traveling. As @lzolman noted up-thread, a bit of planning makes a sub-250 mile range workable. I have not idea what I will do with 375 miles of range.

This is good to hear. I travel a lot (30-40k/yr) so I will be in this one quite a bit. I ran a lot of map scenarios and they were all doable. I like to stop often the older I get so the 15-30 mins every few hours is not going to cramp my style. With the Tesla, the range keeps improving and the charging times keep improving.

 

[doubleshot]

Range conversation for me during the daily drives is easy, I live 2 miles from work lol. But I make a 250 mile trip 5-6 times a year I'd really love to make it there, plug it in for the weekend, then be able to drive back. Major reason I'm going for the MS vs M3, oh that and the fact there are just way too many M3s on the road.

I'm gonna keep lurking around hopefully someone sometime soon says, WOOT A VIN. Then I can get back to hoping that May is a good timeframe.

 

[shauncarter1]

Range conversation for me during the daily drives is easy, I live 2 miles from work lol. But I make a 250 mile trip 5-6 times a year I'd really love to make it there, plug it in for the weekend, then be able to drive back. Major reason I'm going for the MS vs M3, oh that and the fact there are just way too many M3s on the road.

I'm gonna keep lurking around hopefully someone sometime soon says, WOOT A VIN. Then I can get back to hoping that May is a good timeframe.

Haha...I thought all the 3s on the road only deterred me.

 

[Ribeyesteak]

A tri motor setup from the plaid in the M3 would be amazing.

 

[elguapo]

Um, no, the rated range is really the actual useful range. When you charge up overnight, let's say (because you'd probably not choose to go all the way to 100% if using a supercharger) and start with 400 miles, you can go to 0 before you stop. So if you're going to cut it close, you just select your charging stops more carefully.

The time the miles "don't really count" is during day-to-day home-based charging. With our 300-mile-range M3, we charge it up when it gets down around 100-130 and only charge it up to about 260. That extends the life and useful capacity of the battery. But that approach is unnecessary when on a long haul trip.

Sorry, I would disagree. Yes, you can drive from 400 to 0, but the chances of you going 400 miles are almost zero unless it’s a flat trip and 60 degrees, etc. Now, this type of “loss” is also true with ICE cars, to a degree. Most folks don’t get the actual blended MPG.

With my Teslas, I have found I average 80% of what the rated range is. So if I start with 400, ied expect to be able to go 320 miles. I do not have a lead foot.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

When I first get it, I am expecting about 30-40% of rated range. Once I start driving better, I hope to get it up higher.