Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[doubleshot]

Could they proceed as is since they were issued?

Tool install just changed to issued on the 1st. They couldn't start doing whatever that permit was for until it was issued. It's large enough to have hazmat requirements but who knows.

The second one hasn't had it's first inspection. Therefore is not finished either.

 

[mattman32]

Happy Easter everyone. May the death of the Model S line result in its glorious resurrection (on Monday). My LR order still says 6-12 weeks from order, and I am in week 8 now.

 

[Tigers]

There were initial reports of production issues - specifically with the new dashboard rattling and not fitting perfectly.

Either way you slice it or dice it - Elon gave us the Musk special, which is to over promise and under deliver. That's not surprising. Only the fan bois throw out there "WELL, HE DELIVERED THE MODEL Y EARLIY!" Yes, and then he got cocky again and is back to his old ways, clearly lol.

I think @doubleshot could be right again - regarding another ticket with the city of Fremont. Also - we don't even know if the other installation is even done, started, or just approved. What gives me some concern, is that they aren't even providing timelines anymore. Some of ya'll have literally nothing now (though I do recognize some of you had '-' before).

One guy on here posted he had an X date yesterday of mid-june (think the range was June 10 - June 19) that has since disappeared.

Others of us, still have March.

All of this leads me to believe is that there isn't a timeline they are comfortable giving at this point, and likely they won't give anyone a real timeline. Literally one day you will wake up and get a call/email that your VIN is ready and to complete financing/payment. That could be tomorrow or July 1st. I do not know how, perhaps Elon microchips all of his employees, but Tesla is incredible at keeping leaks on lock. There wasn't a real leak regarding the refresh, the cybertruck, the 4680s, the roadster, etc. I mean, small parts here or there - but nothing what you see with companies like Apple.

Personally, I bought an old chevy volt from Carvana that I can probably live with for a year or two, so my bi-polarness and desperation for the Model S should disappear tomorrow regardless (or, perhaps, increase?).

But let's clear something up:
- Someone who got the chance to talk to Tesla engineers and sit in the Model S (with pictures/videos to prove it) said the engineer told him that Model S will be delivered without the yoke, with the yoke as an option later. The yoke being the delay keeps getting repeated over and over. According to that person, who quite frankly would know as much as anyone outside of Tesla, that's not happening.

- Chip shortage: the chip shortage was already well underway and understood broadly by the time Elon announced the refresh and gave a timeline of "mid to late Feb". It's not the chip shortage folks. Even if it were, they should still be able to trickle deliver Model S to customers - notice, they are not.

 

[RickAnstey]

In case anyone wants more info from a Tesla employee ... I dropped into the Superior, Colorado, store yesterday and asked if my new Model S was on the lot since my delivery date says March. He couldn't see the grin on my face through my mask. He thought I was serious. According to him, deliveries will start in June.

 

[Tigers]

In case anyone wants more info from a Tesla employee ... I dropped into the Superior, Colorado, store yesterday and asked if my new Model S was on the lot since my delivery date says March. He couldn't see the grin on my face through my mask. He thought I was serious. According to him, deliveries will start in June.

How about this: if people are going to post these things, how about asking "did Tesla HQ confirm that timeline specifically or is that a rough guess?"

Because, I've heard multiple dates from multiple people and usually when I ask that question they go "well, Id just be surprised if its before then and we are telling people that so they arent letdown just in case"

Thats not a confirmation of anything.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

I think there are a couple levels of buyers. Those who converted to refresh and those who ordered after announcement. I also think that many SA say June because website starts 10-14 weeks. But as you guys know I am just good for my smartass comments and know as much as my SA.

 

[MiamiEvKing]

Looks like they might try to get us all in the June EOQ push.

 

[omarsultan]

Either way you slice it or dice it - Elon gave us the Musk special, which is to over promise and under deliver. That's not surprising. Only the fan bois throw out there "WELL, HE DELIVERED THE MODEL Y EARLIY!" Yes, and then he got cocky again and is back to his old ways, clearly lol.

Don't disagree with your broader points, but for the sake of historical accuracy, the Model 3 was delivered early too. At the Model 3 reveal, Musk said he was "fairly confident" deliveries would start at the end of 2017 and deliveries actually began in July.

 

[RickAnstey]

How about this: if people are going to post these things, how about asking "did Tesla HQ confirm that timeline specifically or is that a rough guess?"

Because, I've heard multiple dates from multiple people and usually when I ask that question they go "well, Id just be surprised if its before then and we are telling people that so they arent letdown just in case"

Thats not a confirmation of anything.

My apologies for posting this and butting into the usual rants.

 

[gadelrosario]

I was just told by a different SA that due to Chip shortages and Yoke approvals/clearance we are looking at a May/June delivery.

I was told May-June deliveries as well but was given no reason for the delay.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

Last week my SA said I am third in line at my undisclosed location and he expects end April to mid may. Anyone want to bet on his accuracy - I think Vegas will start giving odds??

 

[cubsnlinux]

I was told May-June deliveries as well but was given no reason for the delay.

If nothing else I would say May/June is just common sense. We are almost through the first week of April so it ain’t happening this month.

 

[ucmndd]

Don't disagree with your broader points, but for the sake of historical accuracy, the Model 3 was delivered early too. At the Model 3 reveal, Musk said he was "fairly confident" deliveries would start at the end of 2017 and deliveries actually began in July.

I don’t necessarily disagree, but this interpretation of events requires a very generous definition of starting deliveries.

They made 260 cars in all of Q3 2017 and every one of them went to company insiders. The first “regular customer” deliveries were deep into Q4.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

I was told May-June deliveries as well but was given no reason for the delay.

If nothing else I would say May/June is just common sense. We are almost through the first week of April so it ain’t happening this month.

Afraid to say May is looking more likely for first with a catch up by EOQ. This of course is if they solve their delays very soon.

 

[Tigers]

My apologies for posting this and butting into the usual rants.

I'm not saying don't post - but at this point, speculation is a dime a dozen around here (since, you know, the company has refused to update its customers of a ~$100k+ car).

All I am saying is - next time someone asks, it would be nice for clarification of "are you making this up based on guestimates" or "did Tesla HQ specifically tell your team that?" so that we know whats official word from above and what SAs are making up to get people to leave them alone.

Again - the only reason I say that, is because I've personally been told April, May and June and usually when I follow up the person tells me "well, I mean, I dont see how it would be possible before then" or "they keep the first month on the west coast, so it cant be this month" or "yeah, based on the lack of information - I dont think it can happen in the next 60 days"...none of these are based on anything than the SA making it up, likely to get people to leave them alone.

 

[omarsultan]

I don’t necessarily disagree, but this interpretation of events requires a very generous definition of starting deliveries.

They made 260 cars in all of Q3 2017 and every one of them went to company insiders. The first “regular customer” deliveries were deep into Q4.

Fair point - the ramp did not come until the following year

 

[Hayseed_MS]

So that Tigers will know where my SA gets his info to pass: it gets stuck on these two

 

[Moose57]

Don't disagree with your broader points, but for the sake of historical accuracy, the Model 3 was delivered early too. At the Model 3 reveal, Musk said he was "fairly confident" deliveries would start at the end of 2017 and deliveries actually began in July.

My theory is that it had to do with the Q1 deliveries more than anything. It is in Elon's personal best interest to continually beat his delivery estimates for Wall Street, quarter after quarter. I will feel more confident in my hypothesis if, within the next 2 weeks, the Q4 modified orders and the early Q1 orders are assigned VIN's. I truly believe the S/X were sandbagged into Q2 when they saw the flow from Y and 3 in Q4/Q1. It bought them time to re-tool and still meet the guidance.

 

[eipi10]

Last week my SA said I am third in line at my undisclosed location and he expects end April to mid may. Anyone want to bet on his accuracy - I think Vegas will start giving odds??

If I had to give an over/under based on everything I know, I would say first deliveries in California in the first week of May.

 

[omarsultan]

I think CA deliveries start two weeks after the open permits are closed--of all the-possible conjecture on causes of delay, that is the only one that seems grounded in any reality.