Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[eipi10]

I wish I could logically justify getting plaid, but the reality is I rented a VW Passat last weekend and never came anywhere close to using the full acceleration. I just don’t see the use case unless you live in the desert.

 

[ssv22]

So, a couple fo data points.

I chatted with my SA today--I ping her about one a month--and asked her what was going on--this is the net of her comments:

• Her over-riding message was "no solid communications from the factory" -- I would emphasize this and take any definitive statements from an SA (other than "I don't know") with a grain of salt. Don't cancel orders or get discouraged based on the hearsay here
• Regarding my August date: no insights on the realness of that
• On Plaid vs LR delivery: Plaid will be in production first but I could also get my LR before the August date. My interpretation of this is that they will prioritize existing Plaid orders, but could blow through those and then move on LR. If our spreadsheet is representative of the larger order backlog, then that kinda makes sense--spend June and some portion of July on Plaids, then move on the the LR order backlog. What is not clear to me is what happens if you order a new Plaid today (more on that below)
• On asking if I order a Plaid today, would I get may car sooner: She did not know how that would be handled and it is a gamble--her advice was to sit tight

On the last part, I know someone who order a Plaid today. They got an RN1150 reservation number but could not see the estimated delivery date because of the website shenanigans--if I hear more from him, I'll update here.

I got the same update from my SA. Where are you based in Norcal?

On another note, if I do end up getting in August, it better be a 2022 MY

 

[sflgator]

I would love to know approx how many refresh MS Plaids have been ordered vs. approx how many refresh MS LR have been ordered to date? Gotta wonder what the percentage is as well, like 80% LR + 20% Plaid? And if Tesla is somehow going to pull a rabbit out of their hat and try to deliver like 80-100% of MS Plaids (ordered in 2020 - present) in June or June & July? And if so, WHY are so many accounts like mine showing August still? Why did they change our accounts from July --> 6/1/21-6/30/21 --> August, only to realize, "holy sugar, the natives are getting restless...we better just deliver as many MS Plaids as we can in June!" wtf?

 

[Iain]

I fully expect the Model S to rattle with or without interior trim pieces swapped out. It isn’t really a Tesla if it doesn’t rattle.

At some point you have to wonder if it's the car are you

 

[ucmndd]

Thanks, but how will it work with the MS refresh? I’ve been ready to accept delivery since the day I ordered on 1/2!

Again, it's not strictly FIFO, by any means. As an example, if a car matching your exact config rolls off the line in mid-June, but logistically they can't get that car to PA in time for you to take delivery before the end of the quarter, that car will go to another matching reservation closer to California, even if they ordered later than you.

The unfortunate side effect of a company that lives and dies by quarterly delivery numbers and has set up their entire supply chain accordingly.

 

[AnselmDante]

It seems like we are going through this cycle of someone posting what an SA says, and then someone else reminding everyone the SA's don't know anything. I haven't bothered contacting my SA once, because I know they have no information I need. I need a VIN. Until that appears, this is just fun entertainment. I'm not really expecting to learn anything of value until June 3rd.

 

[JimLL]

Maybe they are all plaids and the part that we have all been hearing that is missing is the rear spoiler?

IDK, of course it’s possible, but seems incredibly short sighted to front load Plaids and not produce ANY LRs. Rhetorically, what’s the ratio of Plaid:LR? Besides, those cars in the flyovers don’t look partially built. They’re being loaded in trucks.

 

[omarsultan]

For those that have been with Tesla for a while - is this account page always this goofy or will it settle down?

Let me put it this way, in 2013, while they were literally dropping my Model S in the driveway, my order page still said "we are building your car" (back then it really was BTO).

It's absolutely been true for many years now that the great, overwhelming majority of US deliveries occur in March, June, September, and December. Earlier production in the quarter is generally sent overseas.

There is a difference between "only" and "majority". Yeah, there is a push at the end of the qtr, but they do deliveries every week of every month.

 

[omarsultan]

I got the same update from my SA. Where are you based in Norcal?

On another note, if I do end up getting in August, it better be a 2022 MY

Near Sacramento - Rocklin is my "home" store.

 

[BarbJohn]

You ordered in November. Shouldn't that be at a lower price?

You ordered in November. Shouldn't that be at a lower price?

Ws

 

[Hayseed_MS]

IDK, of course it’s possible, but seems incredibly short sighted to front load Plaids and not produce ANY LRs. Rhetorically, what’s the ratio of Plaid:LR? Besides, those cars in the flyovers don’t look partially built. They’re being loaded in trucks.

But what about all the LR seen at Fremont that have already been produced?

 

[BarbJohn]

You ordered in November. Shouldn't that be at a lower price?

We have been told we would get thr price adjustment on final invoice.

 

[JimLL]

But what about all the LR seen at Fremont that have already been produced?

Exactly what I was saying!!

 

[omarsultan]

IDK, of course it’s possible, but seems incredibly short sighted to front load Plaids and not produce ANY LRs. Rhetorically, what’s the ratio of Plaid:LR? Besides, those cars in the flyovers don’t look partially built. They’re being loaded in trucks.

Perhaps. I think the logic is that the Plaid will create the biggest buzz, so let's get those out there first on YouTube, etc and then move on the the LR. If our spreadsheet is accurate, then the volume of Plaid is relatively small so the delay should not be excessive. If they start prioritizing new Plaid orders over old LR orders; however, I will be annoyed.

 

[gadelrosario]

So, a couple fo data points.

I chatted with my SA today--I ping her about one a month--and asked her what was going on--this is the net of her comments:

• Her over-riding message was "no solid communications from the factory" -- I would emphasize this and take any definitive statements from an SA (other than "I don't know") with a grain of salt. Don't cancel orders or get discouraged based on the hearsay here
• Regarding my August date: no insights on the realness of that
• On Plaid vs LR delivery: Plaid will be in production first but I could also get my LR before the August date. My interpretation of this is that they will prioritize existing Plaid orders, but could blow through those and then move on LR. If our spreadsheet is representative of the larger order backlog, then that kinda makes sense--spend June and some portion of July on Plaids, then move on the the LR order backlog. What is not clear to me is what happens if you order a new Plaid today (more on that below)
• On asking if I order a Plaid today, would I get may car sooner: She did not know how that would be handled and it is a gamble--her advice was to sit tight

On the last part, I know someone who order a Plaid today. They got an RN1150 reservation number but could not see the estimated delivery date because of the website shenanigans--if I hear more from him, I'll update here.

At least you have an ETD of August. I was told flat out that I won't see my LR until September/October. When I pointed out that September/October is the target date for an LR ordered today she said that my 11/24/20 order would get priority delivery when they make the car and that there's no telling when that might be. I've never been so screwed by a car maker!

 

[gadelrosario]

Perhaps. I think the logic is that the Plaid will create the biggest buzz, so let's get those out there first on YouTube, etc and then move on the the LR. If our spreadsheet is accurate, then the volume of Plaid is relatively small so the delay should not be excessive. If they start prioritizing new Plaid orders over old LR orders; however, I will be annoyed.

The SA said that it makes sense to prioritize the Plaid because Tesla is a business and will always go with the trims that generate the higher margins.

 

[omarsultan]

But what about all the LR seen at Fremont that have already been produced?

We don't know they are actually complete. If they were, it probably would have made more sense to ship them at the delivery hubs instead of stacking them up at Fremont. If the supply chain thing is true, then maybe the Plaids will get priority for the constrained part. Dunno, just trying to find a theory that fits the data we have.

 

[JimLL]

Perhaps. I think the logic is that the Plaid will create the biggest buzz, so let's get those out there first on YouTube, etc and then move on the the LR. If our spreadsheet is accurate, then the volume of Plaid is relatively small so the delay should not be excessive. If they start prioritizing new Plaid orders over old LR orders; however, I will be annoyed.

But that’s just it. What buzz is needed? Q2 allotments sold out 5 weeks into the quarter. Seems to me they’d want to deliver at least some of each model. Plus, they’re gonna make people who’ve been waiting since Christmas wait for orders placed in May? Tesla customer service sucks, but that’s practically criminal.

 

[EVonly]

If they don’t deliver FIFO, what method do they use? Or is there no method?!

Delivery time frame is based on order date, profile submission, delivery location and vehicle configuration.

To translate - that means Tesla will deliver your car whenever they have one available in your geographic location that matches your configuration and will optimize their end of quarter numbers. Tesla will gladly sell you a Plaid purchased today and deliver it before a LR purchased last October because that will improve quarterly profit margins.

 

[Leojsayta]

Basically, we know that we know nothing BUT we might know something on 6/3. Does that about sum it all up?