dmckinstry
Model X 2019
You'll probably get yours before I do. VIN 13430. Ours could be on the same truck from Fremont though. Mine has to then travel to Cheney, WA.
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You'll probably get yours before I do. VIN 13430. Ours could be on the same truck from Fremont though. Mine has to then travel to Cheney, WA.
Well, what ever it is, production is outpacing orders. In the semiconductor industry the metric is called the book to bill ratio and, when it falls, that's a bad sign. When it drops below 1, that's a very bad sign. Right now, I think the Tesla Model S equivalent is less than 1. If Europe or Model X takes up the slack that's great though I doubt Model X will help until next year. And, to be clear, nothing is taking up the slack now otherwise we wouldn't be seeing this shrinking waiting period.
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Yeah, I wouldn't surprised. But we are probably talking a day or 2 at most. I'm just trying to not get all giddy with anticipation....
The highest assigned VIN is not indicative of the factory production rate. Together with the factory release date the latest assigned VIN indicates the rate the incoming reservations. See linked below for explanation.
2Q 2013 Model S Deliveries Potential Surprise - Page 7
2Q 2013 Model S Deliveries Potential Surprise - Page 7
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jeff_adams
Member
It's also possible that Tesla is close to making a profit in Q2 and they want to build out the cars with the most profit margin in the shortest time frame. One of Elon's metrics as CEO is for Tesla to have 4 consecutive quarters of profit. 1 is in the bag and they are very confident for a profit in Q4, so maybe they are pushing hard to make it happen in Q2.
JAG9000
Member
I just received a new piece of data for my Model S:
Order placed 5/28
Order confirmed, "in production" and VIN# 141xx 6/11
Will enter production line 7/8
I am disappointed that mine is entering the line four weeks from now. I see that lots of close VINs already have delivery dates.
Model S 85 - blue/tan/lacewood - Tech - Sound Studio - Jumpseats
Order placed 5/28
Order confirmed, "in production" and VIN# 141xx 6/11
Will enter production line 7/8
I am disappointed that mine is entering the line four weeks from now. I see that lots of close VINs already have delivery dates.
Model S 85 - blue/tan/lacewood - Tech - Sound Studio - Jumpseats
This. Notice the people getting the quickest delivery all seem to be P85 and P+.
I'm telling you my 'F5' button on my keyboard is going to give out if I continue to hammer it as I have been on the My Tesla page on the Tesla Motors site. Having the information available the way it is for an impatient person like me is not a good thing.... I wonder how my father felt when he was ordering custom configurations of cars back in the 70's; he didn't have an 'F5' button to hit.
BTW, 'F5' on the Internet Explorer browser is the refresh button.
I am sorry about that. Tesla is going to build a large batch of European cars now. But look on the bright side: your wait will be 2 months. In Europe we've been waiting for 1, 2 or even 3 years now :wink:
The production potential is surely higher than the incoming order rate, otherwise they would never be able to catch up with the backlog.
For example, the production line is likely scaled and designed that they could make the Model S at the rate of 40,000 per year maximum. Elon made the comment in the shareholder meeting that he things that will be the peak demand for the Model S. So if they are on pace to do about 5,000 per quarter right now, that is fine that the backlog is gone and the time frame between order and delivery is about 4-6 weeks right now.
My Model S went to production with a VIN within 8 days of me finalizing options. So the USA backlog has been eliminated. The only backlog right now is Europe and Asia orders.
Based on the VIN numbers reported since April, I think they will report over 5,000 delivered for the quarter. The only thing that might prevent that is if there are a large number of European cars that are in transit that don't actually get delivered until July, therefore they cannot recognize the revenue until the third quarter.
They now have 13,000+ cars out there on the road with Tesla owners showing their friends, co-workers, neighbors. I think 5,000+ per quarter is going to be a number they can maintain.
For example, the production line is likely scaled and designed that they could make the Model S at the rate of 40,000 per year maximum. Elon made the comment in the shareholder meeting that he things that will be the peak demand for the Model S. So if they are on pace to do about 5,000 per quarter right now, that is fine that the backlog is gone and the time frame between order and delivery is about 4-6 weeks right now.
My Model S went to production with a VIN within 8 days of me finalizing options. So the USA backlog has been eliminated. The only backlog right now is Europe and Asia orders.
Based on the VIN numbers reported since April, I think they will report over 5,000 delivered for the quarter. The only thing that might prevent that is if there are a large number of European cars that are in transit that don't actually get delivered until July, therefore they cannot recognize the revenue until the third quarter.
They now have 13,000+ cars out there on the road with Tesla owners showing their friends, co-workers, neighbors. I think 5,000+ per quarter is going to be a number they can maintain.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The line seems to be sized for a bit more than 20K per year with a single shift and no OT, higher numbers probably require OT and/or a second shift.
JAG9000
Member
Right Said Fred - My heart goes out to you! My disappointment is relative to my expectations, since US orders seem to be usually going right into production within a week or two. I hope you receive yours soon!
deonb
Active Member
Model S
Red Multi-Coat Paint
All Glass Panoramic Roof
Black Nappa Leather Interior
Piano Black Décor6
60 kWh Battery
Tech Package
Active Air Suspension
Parcel Shelf
Reserved: 2012-9-14 (RN313295)
Finalized: 2013-4-13 (60 kWh)
To Factory: 2013-05-13
End of line: 2013-05-29
Delivered: 2013-06-07 (VIN11111)
Red Multi-Coat Paint
All Glass Panoramic Roof
Black Nappa Leather Interior
Piano Black Décor6
60 kWh Battery
Tech Package
Active Air Suspension
Parcel Shelf
Reserved: 2012-9-14 (RN313295)
Finalized: 2013-4-13 (60 kWh)
To Factory: 2013-05-13
End of line: 2013-05-29
Delivered: 2013-06-07 (VIN11111)
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