SegSeg
Member
You would think someone somewhere knows what is going on in the company so either literally nothing is happening to get the S out or they are very good a containing leaks in the cooperate structure.
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Ordered Model S LR on March 1 with an 4-11 week delivery date!
white on black
19 inch wheels (was going for 21s but read too many bad reviews for ride quality)
FSD
was hoping people got some cars in the last few weeks so I can watch some reviews and delivery videos....hopefully they start rolling in soon
white on black
19 inch wheels (was going for 21s but read too many bad reviews for ride quality)
FSD
was hoping people got some cars in the last few weeks so I can watch some reviews and delivery videos....hopefully they start rolling in soon
Since you’re new to the forum, I’ll try to sum it up and save you some time.
The reality: Nobody (including Tesla SA) knows for sure when deliveries will start.
The speculation: deliveries will start May/June. I personally feel May/June is best case.
Also lots of speculation about what’s causing the delays. It’s probably not the yoke.
Danlbrau
MSLR 1/27/21 VIN MF443 Delivered 9/19/21!
Well, as trouble free as a car with 148,000 miles can be. Never broke down, never had to replace brake pads (I’m something of a hyper miler so I make proactive use to the regen braking), a new set of OEM tires after 57,000 and 112,000 miles.
The two main problems were all four door handles failed within the first 30,000 miles and were replaced under warranty, and the touchscreen display failed at about 62,000 miles, and that was replaced under warranty too with the note “Goodwill”. Also the trunk latch failed at about 130,000 miles and I had to pay for that. But for 148,000 miles it was as trouble free as can be.
Danlbrau
MSLR 1/27/21 VIN MF443 Delivered 9/19/21!
You’ve probably seen May/June is the best guess for when deliveries will start. Also keep in mind they haven’t delivered a single December/January/February order so a March 1 order is likely to be at the end of that backlog. So that would indicate July/August for a March 1 order. Except...
Tesla has a habit of fronting the high margin models when coming out with a new car. The base Model 3’s weren’t produced until tens of thousands of the performance models were sold. Given Plaids are $40k more revenue and a fraction of that in additional cost, it wouldn’t surprise me if your LR (and mine) got delayed until they cleared the Plaid backorders. So who knows when the LRs will start shipping, although if you ordered FSD that’s pure profit so that might be one of the first LRs.
Regarding delays, could be retooling issues, chip shortages, gaming chip shortages and/or parts shortages, etc. The yoke probably isn’t causing the delays but it’s definitely not helping. Especially if Tesla will start deliveries with a round wheel which they definitely didn’t plan for initially.
It doesn't matter really what it is, bottom line, all points to Tesla being extremely mismanaged and overzealous in announcing the refresh way too soon. Makes you wonder why they announced in Jan when in reality probably should've been in April.
Did they not know they needed the tooling? Did they not know they needed approval for the yoke? Did they not know chips would be hard to get? Certainly the answer to all of these is that they did know.
GrnSqrl
LR,blk/blk,19”,rcd 8/25;VIN4392; only waited 235d
Why wouldn’t they have offered the option to buy the pre-refresh model? I ordered on 1/2/21 with no knowledge of impending refresh. Then was informed early February about refresh.
I think Occam's Razor applies here. Current focus is on deliveries and beating quarterly delivery numbers. They saw Q1 was on track for a blowout with 3/Y and subsequently pushed any S/X production to Q2 or beyond to help with Q2/Q3 numbers. Really no reason to think anything else is at play. They are taking time with retooling because they can. They are not communicating any timelines at risk of losing orders, because there isn't. For every one person who cancels their order, there will be more who place an order now - and likely the folks who canceled will come back later once the car is actually available.
Ordered 12/20, got offered a pre-refresh demo model, deferred for a refresh. Account shows "-" for Estimated Delivery. LR Blue/White.
Ordered 12/20, got offered a pre-refresh demo model, deferred for a refresh. Account shows "-" for Estimated Delivery. LR Blue/White.
Cleo-n-Company
Member
What kind of videos is Tesla supposed to provide ? Elon watching Grimes get another tattoo ?
Let's be serious -- even if Tesla uploaded a video of a revised Model S waiting in the drive-thru line at In-n-Out -- we'd know nothing more than the driver was dying for a double-double.
Consumers are just looking for the facts - or at least a close facsimile.
Believe it or not -- even if Elon said - "We expect initial deliveries on June 1," but then back-tracked on May 15 and said he expected a delay, I'd probably roll my eyes and shrug, but would at least feel as if he was making an initial stab at customer communication.
But 'ya see... the way he's playing the game... he is purposely shielding himself from any accountability. Since the guy pretty much owns the company, he's only really accountable to that silly mug in the mirror. Just the way he likes it.
Hayseed_MS
Spreader of "Endless Non Sequitur"
The Model 3 LR RWD shipped first. The AWD and P came later.
legend_of_jim
MSLR/MSM/Blk/21s/no FSD- Ord: Feb 5th, Vin: 435
Danlbrau
MSLR 1/27/21 VIN MF443 Delivered 9/19/21!
It was my understanding the $35,000 base model that was promised wasn’t produced for quite a while. You are probably correct that AWD wasn’t produced first (probably wasn’t even initially available) and perhaps the same with performance, by my recollection was nothing below $50k left the factory for quite a while. If not performance at least high content cars.
epotter
Member
As an engineer who has to ferry products through the certification and manufacturing process, I'd offer a couple of comments on this:
- Did they not know they needed the tooling? Yes, but until the tooling has been procured, installed, and tested, you don't know if the tooling you designed is the tooling you received, or if it's the tooling that you wanted. If something is wrong, you have to modify the tooling or (worse) design, procure, install, and test new tooling. If the tooling is very expensive, there's possibly going to be a lot of fighting over who has to pay for these modifications.
- Did they not know they needed approval for the yoke? There's been a lot of back and forth about the yoke but does anyone actually know what the story is here? I don't - and don't claim to - but I buy the argument that NHTSA doesn't pre-approve stuff like this, but can require changes if its too far off the wall, or its use results in a pattern of mishaps. Manufacturers can head off issues by coordinating in advance, but unless Tesla did this and NHTSA said "lol no" I really don't see this as being part of the issue. They've got a round steering wheel, so if the shape of the yoke was a problem they could get around it. Having PRND controls in a non-standard part is clearly not a problem; car manufacturers put those in a lot of places now.
- Did they not know chips would be hard to get? I'm dealing with this [heck] right now. Knowing that components (not just chips; also passive components) are hard to get doesn't mean knowing which ones are hard to get, and when. Stuff can be available in the tens of thousands while you're designing a module, then suddenly evaporate when it's time to build it. Lots of companies are pre-purchasing/hoarding now too, which makes it worse.
Tesla could calm a lot of nerves by just telling people where they're at in the process, but in the absence of that I'd look at the available evidence, which is that they stopped the old assembly line, put the new line together, made a handful of test articles (which people are seeing on the road), and don't appear to be making more. The cars that people spot in the wild frequently have pieces missing, one of at least a couple of steering wheels, debugging connectors hanging out, FACTORY MODE displayed on the screens, etc. So now they're clearly testing.
There's a lot to test in a new car, and a lot to go wrong, and they've got to have an army of test engineers putting a lot of miles on a lot of cars (hitting all of the major variations) in a lot of different environments. They seem to be doing this and I think it's reasonable to guess that so much is broken right now that it would be profoundly stupid for them to release cars to consumers. That's not to say TESLA BAD - just that these are really complex, sometimes unprecedented products and there's a lot to go wrong, and a lot of testing has to happen before they foist them on paying customers. Rushing the engineering phase could be to blame for some/many problems, but they also can't put miles on test vehicles until they've manufactured them, ideally on the actual production line, and if they don't have the resources to have the new line assembled and usable in parallel with the old one, they have to stop making Model S cars at some point to start this process, and now they can't deliver Model S cars until the process has completed.
That was bound to be painful, but I'd much rather wait until they have more kinks ironed out than get vehicle #4 off the line and it shifts into reverse every 10th time I turn left, or the bumpers to fall off if I hit a speed bump over 5MPH, or whatnot. Rushing the testing process is the worst thing they can do, especially if they're finding lots of things to fix. Would you rather have your Model S now and it's garbage that's constantly broken, or get it in late July but it's driveable? A legacy company like Volkswagen or Ford has the resources to set up a dedicated line for an incremental model year release, make a run of test articles, and abuse them for half a year or so before public release, and are still perfectly capable of releasing cars with embarrassing and highly annoying problems. If Tesla doesn't have the resources for a parallel line, they just have to deal with embarrassing and highly annoying problems plus embarrassing and highly annoying delays.
I'd still love to get my Model S tomorrow, but ... I can wait. What I'd love even more is if they would just let people know where they're at. But if where they're at is "EVERYTHING IS BROKEN AND NOBODY HAS SLEPT SINCE FEBRUARY" then I kinda see why they're not really sharing that.
Well, we now know seats are not the hang upBig news from Tesla! @ Twitter
Just adding my data point…
Called Tesla today (logistics/vehicle delivery)
I was told May/June. I asked if this was specific to my reservation number or just a stock response that everybody would be getting. I told him “I assume there must be a pretty large backlog at this point.” And he responded yes to the backlog and that May/June was specific to my reservation number. RN114620xxx
Placed 3/11/21
I also asked him if he had any idea why there was such a delay and he said he didn’t know.
Called Tesla today (logistics/vehicle delivery)
I was told May/June. I asked if this was specific to my reservation number or just a stock response that everybody would be getting. I told him “I assume there must be a pretty large backlog at this point.” And he responded yes to the backlog and that May/June was specific to my reservation number. RN114620xxx
Placed 3/11/21
I also asked him if he had any idea why there was such a delay and he said he didn’t know.
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