Model S/X deliveries drop off cliff, down 56%

[lklundin]

Keeping the current body styles going for a long time will also protect the value of the entire earlier fleet.

An additional reason for keeping the current body style is that it avoids the overhead of updating the stamping presses.

I think a lot of people buy Tesla because Tesla push the envelope on technology.

For such a buyer it can be a real problem that the Model S is technically inferior to the Model 3 with respect to the BEV related tech:

Power electronics (20 year old COTS components in the S/X versus a new, compact design in the 3),
Motor efficiency, better in the Model 3,
Charging speed, Model 3 owners are reporting 1600 km/h (1000 mph) w. v3 (partly due to the above).
More efficient battery cooling (and heating) in the Model 3, allowing for better racing and winter driving,
Fanless, liquid computer cooling in the Model 3
Superior sensor suite incl. 8 cameras w. 360 degree view in the Mode 3.
Solid state circuit brakers in the Model 3.

For someone that wants a car with more space/seats, this doesn't matter but for others it can mean that a Model 3 is bought instead.

 

[zambono]

If the Model 3 had been available when I was buying, I would have definitely cross shopped and I probably would have bought a Model 3 even though I like the Model S better.

The Model S is not a typical $100K car. All other cars in that price range compete for the attentions of a certain subset of wealthy people who want over the top luxury or the peak of performance. These cars are to the car market what MacIntosh audio equipment is to audiophiles. It's for those who are willing to pay through the nose for the best.

There have always been quite a few people who could afford $100K cars, but didn't see the point. They don't want a head turner, or the ultimate in luxury, or the ultimate in performance. They want decent transportation that will get them from point A to point B with some creature comforts, but it doesn't have to be over the top, nor do they want attention. These are the people buying Camrys, Outbacks, and RAV4s. They see a $100K car as a waste of money.

Some of these people were upsold into the Model S when it was the only thing available. A study done around 2015 found that a large percentage of Model S owners had never owned a car worth more than $60K. The last car I bought new before my Model S cost $21K.

I don't know the size of the $100K luxury market before the Model S, but I'm sure Tesla grew the segment quite a bit by drawing in buyers who had never given the segment a second thought. The only reason the Model S was in that segment to begin with was because it couldn't be made and sold for $40K-$50K at the time. Now it can.

Now that the Model 3 is available Tesla has needed to rethink the Model S. Is it going to be an exclusive $100K car, or is it going to be a modest step up from the Model 3? It can't continue to be a $90K+ step up from the Model 3 lacking features of the Model 3.

By sharing as much as possible with the Model 3 and making other parts similar, they could make a Model S that would sell for about $10K more than the Model 3 at profit. It would have the advantage of being bigger, better range, with a hatchback, but otherwise very similar. That might keep the Model S production numbers up.

Or they could go the route and compete with the European luxury cars in features. Ultimately I think that would be a mistake. That segment is shrinking back to the size it was before the Model S blew it up and the Europeans are beginning to roll out their own EVs. Tesla will still beat the Europeans on range for several years, but on luxury, the Europeans can just do it better.

Elon is by nature rather spartan. He has a lot of trouble wrapping his head around all the gadgets in European luxury cars. He had trouble embracing the concept of a standard console in the center of the car. The Model S didn't get it until it had been in production almost 4 years.

Tesla's strength is delivering convenience, performance, range, and electronic features, but not all that strong in luxury. They are better suited for aiming at the center of the market instead of the top end. Let BMW and Mercedes concentrate on making massage chairs on wheels and play to Tesla's strengths.

Agree with you on many points, as I stated in a thread of mine the Model S is a 60k car now that the 3 exists. With the refresh, they should set realistic prices inline with the drop manufacturing EV's and take into account the competition. I don't even know if you can call all the vehicles doing less than 300 miles competition but thats another discussion.

 

[DoubleE]

interesting article:

Breaking — Tesla Model S & X Refresh Production Test Run Is About To Start | CleanTechnica

Possible testing?

 

[sillydriver]

interesting article:

Breaking — Tesla Model S & X Refresh Production Test Run Is About To Start | CleanTechnica

Possible testing?

When I saw this yesterday I was disappointed because the numbers imply they are just building test units at this point. I made comments upthread that I thought the analyst meeting this afternoon was a likely venue to announce the refresh, given that it's early enough in the quarter for Tesla to take orders and get some revenues from the refreshed cars before July. Now it looks like they aren't yet ready to produce in volume, and that I was wrong: the introduction will be a quarter later. If so, then I wonder who will buy the S this quarter? Only people who haven't been following the rumor/news flow on the refresh, I would think.

 

[NerdUno]

Looking at the inside of my I-Pace and comparing it to the interior of our previous 2016 Model S is night and day. In two more years when there is a competitive charging network for the other brands including the I-Pace, Elon will either have to give away supercharging or go out of business. He simply isn't going to be able to compete against Jaguar, Porsche, BMW, Mercedes Benz, Audi, and VW once they get up to speed on EVs and have a charging network to at least support vacation travel.

 

[Vitold]

Looking at the inside of my I-Pace and comparing it to the interior of our previous 2016 Model S is night and day. In two more years when there is a competitive charging network for the other brands including the I-Pace, Elon will either have to give away supercharging or go out of business. He simply isn't going to be able to compete against Jaguar, Porsche, BMW, Mercedes Benz, Audi, and VW once they get up to speed on EVs and have a charging network to at least support vacation travel.

It is much easier to upgrade interior than engineer good EV platform.

Besides, Model 3 interior is already better than I-Pace’ to many people for one simple reason: utility of large screen. Every new design is moving in that direction. Model 3 is already there.

I expect air vents to be imitated by others also.

 

[BoerumHill]

Looking at the inside of my I-Pace and comparing it to the interior of our previous 2016 Model S is night and day. In two more years when there is a competitive charging network for the other brands including the I-Pace, Elon will either have to give away supercharging or go out of business. He simply isn't going to be able to compete against Jaguar, Porsche, BMW, Mercedes Benz, Audi, and VW once they get up to speed on EVs and have a charging network to at least support vacation travel.

Looking forward to TSLA having more competition. Seems like there's always a Tesla killer two years out. Plans do not equate to actual production. But it's going to be good for consumers once they have real comp, it will only force them to become a better company.

Wish I had $100 for every time I've read a pronouncement about Tesla that ends with "or go out of business" - that next gen Founders Series Roadster payment would have already been wired.

 

[zambono]

Looking at the inside of my I-Pace and comparing it to the interior of our previous 2016 Model S is night and day. In two more years when there is a competitive charging network for the other brands including the I-Pace, Elon will either have to give away supercharging or go out of business. He simply isn't going to be able to compete against Jaguar, Porsche, BMW, Mercedes Benz, Audi, and VW once they get up to speed on EVs and have a charging network to at least support vacation travel.

The I-Pace and Audis electric platform is not up to snuff yet, low 200's range is kind of ridiculous but they have to start somewhere. How do you think you are going to fare in the winter, on sub freezing days? Range in the low 100's, can't go anywhere with that other than a short commute. I hope Jaguar is working on their second generation already and that its robust unlike the electronics in their vehicles for the past decades. I for one would love to have an EV Range Rover but knowing how poor their current reliability is with mostly electronics it might just be a disaster. Best wishes with the I-Pace, let us know how it does, issues range etc.

 

[NerdUno]

The I-Pace and Audis electric platform is not up to snuff yet, low 200's range is kind of ridiculous but they have to start somewhere. How do you think you are going to fare in the winter, on sub freezing days? Range in the low 100's, can't go anywhere with that other than a short commute. I hope Jaguar is working on their second generation already and that its robust unlike the electronics in their vehicles for the past decades. I for one would love to have an EV Range Rover but knowing how poor their current reliability is with mostly electronics it might just be a disaster. Best wishes with the I-Pace, let us know how it does, issues range etc.

Doesn't get that cold in Charleston, SC, but in sub-freezing temps this winter, we were seeing about 210 miles of range. Now that spring temps have arrived, we're back up to 240 miles which is about the same range we had with our P90D. We didn't buy the car for trips. We bought it for in-town use so the 200-240 mile limitation really wasn't a factor in our purchasing decision.

p.s. We've had zero problems with our I-Pace. Wish I could have said the same with our Model S.

 

[Cloxxki]

In Tesla's shoes, I would totally make the Model S into a larger Model 3.
So the same materials, architecture and production techniques. With these changes:
- Keep the larger main screen and instrument cluster (the latter as a paid option, because Tesla)
- Larger maximum battery for flagship bragging rights
- Wagon version and old S style hatch
- Towing

There are several ways how they could boost the battery capacity, with each their own impact on design below the carpets.
- 2170s have been ruled out by Elon. Due to low production at GF1 only? Couldn't Panasonic produce some in Japan?
The capacity gain is in the 5 mm extra length of the cylinder. Teslas stack use the cells standing up, a taller cell add capacity. 5mm is 7.7% right there. A cell 18x70 mm would make it a 110 kWh pack with the exact same number of cells, architecture, just 5mm more use inside the pack or making the pack thicker as needed. 5mm is not a lot on a car the height of a small person. 18x75 mm doesn't seem inconceivable and depending on how the Panasonic line is designed, providing the cell is stable enough with those ratios, that might actually work.
- For optimal cooling and being able to deal with high power, it helps to have many cells. Tesla pioneered this, the S and X now have over 8,000 cells. For a flagship, there may be no need to skimp on cost losing both peak and continuous output power, ceteris paribus.
- Model 3s pack is a better design. Such architecture would save space in the S and X cars, allowing for more cells. Say, 5% more cells, that adds the same in range pretty much.
- A radical redesign of the architecture could be considered. Other brands optimize seating comfort by not placing battery modules under the occupants' feet. Extra modules sit under the seats which need the raise anyway. Some utilize the space down the center line of the car where traditionally a gear tunnel sat.
- Years ago, Elon add JB reported that in the lab, they saw a 15% energy density gain at the chemistry level. This clearly did not make it to the 2170s in production yet as the density gain is just a few percents, explained by the form factor more than anything else. We may never know what the downside of that chemistry was. Loads of cobalt, for instance? Similar DC fast charging longevity issues like the S/X90's silicone enriched cells?
An energy density upgrade at the cell level is years overdue. Maxwell tech, might it be ready near term, through a license if need be?
- We know the Model 3's cells do well with cooling and maximum charge speed. We've not seen S/X Ludicrous level discharge rates as yet, although the capability may be there. With Model 3's chemistry from 2017 into an old Panasonic 18650 can with Model 3's cooling architecture, would make the 102.4 kWh pack (assuming no other adjustments) take well over 300 kW considering Model 3 will get 256 kW from 80-81kWh. The smaller form factor and parallel cooling would improve the long term heat management capability of the pack.

The latter option is the lowest impact option, it seems. 2017 chemistry, new permanent magnet motor, more range from a similar size pack. Track performance (stator and battery heat buildup) would be better than Model 3 for a given C rate load.
Allowing 300+ W charging would allow Model S to also get ~1000 kph charging to not lose any road trip races to Model 3.

I'd want Tesla to take it a level up. It really is time for a more dense battery. Stick with 18mm cans, the new architecture should get more cells in the same sort of pack size. Longer cells if viable are a very easy and cheap rang gain. Very little weight added for 8 kWh per 5mm longer cells using the same floor space and layout.

Does anyone exactly why the front motor would not simply be Model 3's rear motor? I've heard something about these motors being bad at coasting and synchronizing?

Also, Model 3 might get a Ludicrous option when this Raven motor fits Model 3? Or would the cells and fuses need upgrades to get the 5-6 C needed to achieve the required initial punch well North of 400 kW?

Now that 250+ kW charging is at our door step, I think large batteries are just wasteful. Nobody needs it, especially with the SC network. Batteries take a toll on the environment. I could sketch a Model S with good cargo space and 130-140 kWh but it would just add (some) weight and needlessly pollute.
As a BEV geek, I want to see the effect on the market of a 400+ mile car that's build as simply as Model 3 pretty much, lower price point that 100D. 350-400 kW charging, of course because, why not?

 

[KSilver2000]

In Tesla's shoes, I would totally make the Model S into a larger Model 3.
So the same materials, architecture and production techniques. With these changes:
- Keep the larger main screen and instrument cluster (the latter as a paid option, because Tesla)
- Larger maximum battery for flagship bragging rights
- Wagon version and old S style hatch
- Towing

Higher paying car buyers do not want a simply larger version of a cheaper car. They want distinction. What car maker do you know that transfers the design of an entry level car into their flagship cars? If anything, it’s the other way around, but they don’t necessarily just make smaller versions of the flagship either. That would take away sales of the flagship. It has to be distinct. Diversifying product lines is necessary. Think about how many models and trims other car brands have. Otherwise, just make one model and keep it simple.

 

[NerdUno]

Oh boy! A more expensive, glorified golf cart. Should be a big seller. Kinda reminds me of the push by developers to sell lofts which were nothing more than gutted apartments at finished apartment prices.

 

[DanCar]

A model S that is a bigger model 3 is still going to be a luxury car because what people want most is FSD.

 

[turtlesz]

Currently own a Model X and Model 3. I can see with the introduction of the Model 3 more people are inclined to buy it. I personally prefer the UI and driving characteristics of the 3 over the X and S. The 3 is newer and has more tech like faster charging, better cooling battery architecture etc. People would be hard pressed to spend much more to get into a 100D S when those cars lack creature comforts like door pockets and just a huge bin as center console storage. Exterior front design is more luxurious looking in the S and the power hatch is nice but not many people would be convinced it's worth $40k over a performance Model 3 which goes 310 miles and 0-60 in 3.2 and includes AP. Interior seating space and legroom is extremely similar to a Model S also. Tesla could revamp the S and make it a class leader how Mercedes runs it's S class lineup as the pinnacle of tech and comfort and it will sell again.

 

[DigAdrenaline]

I'm with you. The pushbutton exit buttons are learnable, but I've heard new passengers make mistake and do the emergency release instead. The hatch on the S is extremely useful and while the trunk is decent size on the 3, it is far less useful. I also like the instrument cluster in front of me with the S and I think Tesla went backwards with the new firmware on the S/X making the main screen more like the 3.

The exterior door handles on the 3 are overly complicated to operate. I would think people with limitations like some forms of arthritis or a hand injury would find them impossible to operate.

I agree with both of you. The screen floating also looks awkward, even if the landscape orientation does make more sense. That alone would keep me with the S/X/Roadster.

I'm not even slightly interested in the 3 coming from an S.

 

[DigAdrenaline]

Speaking selfishly about what I want, I would love it if Tesla took all the cost savings they've uncovered that could be applied to building an S-sized car, kept the high price point the same, and plowed the difference into more features and luxury. But reading your comment dispassionately, I think you're right: building the car that you suggest would be the safer business decision. Yet if they do that it would leave more of an opening for consideration of the Taycan and the like.

Typically, auto upgrades consist of exterior things. Wrapping it, new rims, window tinting, dechrome, lights, etc. Maybe what should happen is that someone should intentionally target Tesla interiors. New seats (with LCD screens in the back of the headrests). Dashes. Door panels, whatever. Heck, there are lots of us who would gladly pay to go from MCU1 to MCU2. Frunk/Truck (changes perhaps replace the HEPA filter and increase the frunk size, or whatever). Sound dampening. Qi Charging solutions (front and back) that aren't crappy, Etc.

 

[Stirfelt]

This thread pertains to sagging sales.

I suspect that Tesla is fighting "head winds" from the media just like the president. (No intent to start a political discussion).

I watch the news, and it is all about Teslas's declining stock; Consumer Report says the autonomous system is like a "student driver;" YouTube readers write terrible things about EM and government credits; and should a Tesla become involved in an accident, the media is all over the story .... and on and on.

It's a shame that human nature is that buyers with problems are the ones that speak-up, report to the media and respond to this forum. There are many owners that have no issues; perfectly happy with their Tesla, and many even report it is the best car they have ever owned .... one writer reported he had ordered his 3rd Tesla.

Happy owners ... speak up. I know owners of Tesla stock would be most appreciative.

 

[Mike Robinson]

I'm a very happy 2018 MS 100D owner! Yes, prices have dropped since I bought my car, but I'm not surprised and I'm still happy. It may be the best car I've ever owned.

I agree 100% with Stirfelt's assessment. I can't go a week without seeing a report (or multiple reports) about Tesla going bankrupt. And it's been that way for a very long time. And yet, Tesla is still going, against all odds.

I'm very hopeful it will make it for many, many more years. At the very least, it provides a great car and forces other car makers to really step up their game.

 

[vickh]

Does the 56% drop include CPO? CPO S prices have been rising lately. Esp. for facelifts

I hope they play their promo/price levers right for Q2 end.

 

[Magellan55]

hopefully Q2 will set things straight. Should have all the overseas logistics worked out, some of that in-transit inventory reduced. We'll know in about 5 weeks.