Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I don't expect to see the MYP or MYLR to have 4680's for a couple years . The cybertruck is going to need at least 2x as many batteries (the Semi even more). This non-LR varient is likely to be less in demand ( depending upon the price) because of the range. If they will start production in 2023 they are going to need all the 4680's they can make and they won't have enought for the P & LR.

When they do make 4680's for the LR&P ( likely after this new battery plant is built) I do think they will come with increased range. It will be the answer to how do you refresh a Model Y after being on the market for 5 years.

I must say there have been some nice meltdowns to witness because of Austin and I have lots of

 

[Yperformance]

400 may be a huge overstatement. 25 lbs less with only 280 miles of range is what the new dual motor’s paperwork is showing.

The weight save came from battery day .

 

[Mrbrock]

Hi, quite possible however I cannot agree that the structural battery pack will not be an improvement. The saving of up to 400 lbs when coupled with the 4680 that will dramatically improve the drivability and performance range my not necessarily increase that much as wind and rolling resistance will still be about the same. If MYP does not have at least some improvements sales myvgivto BMW and others and Tesla magic grip will be vulnerable.

You are reading into the hype again. The 400 lbs number is all based on speculation that they will save weight. Hypotheticals in a digital environment. Now that they have built them and see how they work, the real world results do not show that much weight savings. The weight savings also included megacasts which have already been partly implemented (rear) and the fronts will be some of that weight savings as well. The 4680 specific weight savings was based on there being less cell wall material per energy material. They probably did not include extra weight for structural members or anything else they needed to add to make a true structural pack, or aditional cooling needed for the larger cells. Battery day was a bunch of numbers for cells, period. The overall numbers that were thrown around could include any number of other factors but nothing was spelled out in black and white yet the hype machine ran with it and normal sensible people like you have fallen for the hype. It's sad but only you can control whether you believe the hype or you believe what is in black and white (the contract you signed for the vehicle as it was when you ordered it).

 

[Mrbrock]

The weight save came from battery day .

Please read it again, look at all the slides and tell me where is says a structural 4680 pack in a LR MY or MYP will save 400#.

 

[Brolan]

Tesla promises: FSD will be done, and done, and done. Cybertruck and Roadster will be in production. 4680 batteries will be the best thing since sliced bread. Your mileage may vary.

 

[kylegbraund]

So, if we all ordered our MYLR's back in October/November etc, do the pundits think/believe that these cars will be what we ordered (irrespective of US factory of origin) or will we be 'offered' the new variant? Until this is made clear, can we expect that our original orders may all come from Fremont to be delivered to E and W states?

 

[Ron J.]

Please read it again, look at all the slides and tell me where is says a structural 4680 pack in a LR MY or MYP will save 400#.

There is a slide on page 64 of the battery day presentation (link below) that is titled "Revolution in Body + Battery Engineering" that includes the statement "10% mass reduction". It's not clear if that applies to the total vehicle mass or just to the mass of the chassis plus battery pack (that is what is shown on the illustration on that same slide). Since battery day in Sept. 2019 Tesla Fremont has already starting using the rear megacasting for the MYs so some mass reduction has already been gained.

2020-battery-day-presentation-deck

No description

tesla-share.thron.com

 

[NYMY]

So, if we all ordered our MYLR's back in October/November etc, do the pundits think/believe that these cars will be what we ordered (irrespective of US factory of origin) or will we be 'offered' the new variant? Until this is made clear, can we expect that our original orders may all come from Fremont to be delivered to E and W states?

We will find out Thursday! With the M3 people have been offered LFP SR+ if they wanted to take possession early. Given how dates are slipping for the LR we may see that with the AWD as well (not that it's LFP only as an alternative for waiting for the LR) but my guess is worth less than the bits it's encoded in...

 

[tangible1]

After reading too many posts in this forum, I've formed my own speculation.
1)Texas will build an entry level Y (Including supplying rental company orders), Semi, and Cyber Truck production.
2)MYP will remain 2170 batteries for at least another year for several possible reasons like 4860 supply and cooling batteries with a higher current motor . The S and X are still 18650 batteries after all.
3)If and when the 4680's go in the MYP, it will be the same time at both US factories.
4)The 4680 and Structural pack/frame are cheaper but may not be better.
5)April 7th will leave more questions than answers.

Take the above with a grain of salt.

Your speculations are reasonable.

But I'm starting to feel that Tesla is going to save the details of the MY changes for the Q2 Earnings Call later in April.
GigaFest Austin seems to be a party to recognize suppliers, supporters, and true believers. It will be lots of hype, similar to GigaBerlin.
With real details to follow later....and the internet hype continued.

 

[NYMY]

Your speculations are reasonable.

But I'm starting to feel that Tesla is going to save the details of the MY changes for the Q2 Earnings Call later in April.
GigaFest Austin seems to be a party to recognize suppliers, supporters, and true believers. It will be lots of hype, similar to GigaBerlin.
With real details to follow later....and the internet hype continued.

Except if they deliver MIT MYs some actual information will come out

 

[advocate8]

We will find out Thursday! With the M3 people have been offered LFP SR+ if they wanted to take possession early. Given how dates are slipping for the LR we may see that with the AWD as well (not that it's LFP only as an alternative for waiting for the LR) but my guess is worth less than the bits it's encoded in...

under no circumstances am I accepting a 280-mile EPA range “dual motor” even if they offered to cut $10k from the price, which they won’t. Would be off in a flash to buy someone else’s car. Hard to imagine many taking them up on something like that except folks with like, late fall or 2023 EDD maybe

 

[ZenRockGarden]

There is a slide on page 64 of the battery day presentation (link below) that is titled "Revolution in Body + Battery Engineering" that includes the statement "10% mass reduction". It's not clear if that applies to the total vehicle mass or just to the mass of the chassis plus battery pack (that is what is shown on the illustration on that same slide). Since battery day in Sept. 2019 Tesla Fremont has already starting using the rear megacasting for the MYs so some mass reduction has already been gained.

2020-battery-day-presentation-deck

No description

tesla-share.thron.com

It also likely includes savings from both the front and rear mega-casts (which did not exist at the time, but the rear is already in use)

 

[tangible1]

Except if they deliver MIT MYs some actual information will come out

Those are likely going to Hertz.
Let the rental agencies suffer the early issues....but I don't think there will be any of note.
It's the same car with a new chassis, or maybe the well proven LFP batteries.

Speculation is rampant !!

 

[Aggie_Aloha]

under no circumstances am I accepting a 280-mile EPA range “dual motor” even if they offered to cut $10k from the price, which they won’t. Would be off in a flash to buy someone else’s car. Hard to imagine many taking them up on something like that except folks with like, late fall or 2023 EDD maybe

I think after charging to only 80%/90%- that's what everyone is realistically getting -260- 297 miles at best driving conditions for LR. Plenty of MYP owners don't care about getting max range. Not invalidating your preference - just offering context on reality of range

 

[advocate8]

I think after charging to only 80%/90%- that's what everyone is realistically getting -260- 297 miles at best driving conditions for LR. Plenty of MYP owners don't care about getting max range. Not invalidating your preference - just offering context on reality of range

That’s why I wrote “EPA”... the real-world range of a 279-mile EPA model is going to be even lower than the figure you cite... close to 200 at interstate speeds. starts to get down to the just-not-worth-it range.

 

[advocate8]

Those are likely going to Hertz.
Let the rental agencies suffer the early issues....but I don't think there will be any of note.
It's the same car with a new chassis, or maybe the well proven LFP batteries.

Speculation is rampant !!

Hertz has said its getting 330-range model y’s. In other worlds, MYLR / gemini

 

[tangible1]

Hertz has said its getting 330-range model y’s. In other worlds, MYLR / gemini

May be what they ordered, but maybe they've been sold on something that didn't exist when their original order was placed.
All guessing. All in a vacuum.
No one has publicly taken any deliveries of what's been shipped from Austin.
That also leads me to speculate those are going to Tesla showrooms, which had been saying in January that they were expecting some 'soon'.

who knows? Only Tesla.

 

[voip-ninja]

People freaking out about a shorter range Austin built Y should look on the bright side, it probably means additional upgrades rolled into the Fremont built Y like matrix headlights on all models, etc.

Austin car might come in at a substantially lower price but also be a little more of an economy car.

 

[BGOwner]

Those are likely going to Hertz.
Let the rental agencies suffer the early issues....but I don't think there will be any of note.
It's the same car with a new chassis, or maybe the well proven LFP batteries.

Speculation is rampant !!

From what I heard, the MYLR for Hertz are 330 range. I think somebody showed his screenshots from a Hertz page where it was already available

 

[Mrbrock]

There is a slide on page 64 of the battery day presentation (link below) that is titled "Revolution in Body + Battery Engineering" that includes the statement "10% mass reduction". It's not clear if that applies to the total vehicle mass or just to the mass of the chassis plus battery pack (that is what is shown on the illustration on that same slide). Since battery day in Sept. 2019 Tesla Fremont has already starting using the rear megacasting for the MYs so some mass reduction has already been gained.

2020-battery-day-presentation-deck

No description

tesla-share.thron.com

With the picture shown you should be able to safely infer they are referring to megacasts and structural battery. So 400# overall. When you subtract the megacasts out you are looking at maybe 200# for the battery? The difference of having a passenger or not. The other takeaway is the 14% range increase OPPORTUNITY. How has everyone passed over this word?

I include the slide before to show that you can’t always trust what you see in a Tesla presentation. In the modern battery portion, there are some frame rails that are red meaning excess structure. Yet in the future battery portion, those pieces are still there. Why would you include something that is excess? Because maybe it’s important and you messed up? And if you included those frame members in your weight saving calculations but then forgot to add them back in?