New renderings of storage space and 2nd row seats! (9/15)

[goneskiian]

Ooops, my reading comprehension has failed me! Thanks for clarifying vandacca and dirkhh. Sorry to include you in the sigs. ;-)

@leh22a - While I hope you are right, I think you are giving Tesla's second row seat team entirely too much credit. I agree with FlasherZ that they have a properly folding second row in the works but it's just not ready yet.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Uhh, no clean-up needed. NONE of the text you quoted was toward bonnie and they're not attacks - and you have quoted my text completely out of context. I did not call anyone a name, and I called BS where it was present. Read the entire post again and note the multiple quoted text sections and their authors, it's to several different authors (bonnie gave a constructive note, to which I responded constructively; hpham007 said there was no bias, which is just wrong, period; Yggdrasil said there was no selection bias, which is again just wrong, period; and rdalcanto said that because Model S's executive rear seat option didn't have a great uptake that it means all Model X customers want folded seats, which is false logic as well. To help, I've even quoted a statistics textbook that says so, to which I was told I was wrong and TMC polls are indeed sound scientifically. I called BS on that; it's not an attack, it's the truth. Otherwise, find me a statistician who says that self-selected polls with small samples and loaded questions are statistically valid. Maybe political pollsters, but not anyone with a shred of credibility in statistics.

Can you stop putting words into people's mouths? I've never said there wasn't selection bias, or that the poll was scientific. This is what I said a week ago: Model X reveal impact on TSLA - Page 10 This is what I said yesterday: New renderings of storage space and 2nd row seats! (9/15) - Page 38

Everyone agrees that there is selection bias involved - your opinion is that there is a lot of selection bias, our opinion is that there is a small amount of selection bias. In all probability, we won't be able to agree which is the case.

 

[PeterW]

I really think people don't realize that the non folding seat design is potentially better then the traditional. As I mentioned before, I'm confident Tesla laid out both configurations. Then they went to department stores and funiture stores and Home Depot etc and obtained logs of what people bought. Then they experimented and shove all these items into the X testing both configurations and to their surprise, the final non folding design was more efficient. People here may disagree but I'm sure if they could compare the 2 side by side, the nay Sayers would also realize that Tesla's final layout does in fact allow you more versatility. There has never been an SUV like the X. Nothing with a roof opening and deep floors to load things. This allows for so many different things to be stored that could not be stored with a higher floor when the seats are folded. I really think they could have put in folding seats if they wanted as we have seen plenty examples on this thread of folding seats with in-seat seat belts that are not anchored to the frame. So I really believe they put these seats in cause they found it had more utility.

I find this post interesting. People here have said that it is not a utility if it does not have folding seats. So I would like to know why? Think about this: when you buy a drill, you do not want a drill, you want a hole. So my question to Model X reservation holders is:

What will you not be able to do with Model X that you would have been able to if the second row seats folded flat?

Now I can understand the issue for people who have to configure before we have all the Specs, but my follow up question for the rest of you is: How do you know?

 

[ohmman]

I use my drill as a sander and a screwdriver, among other things. But that's just me.

 

[PeterW]

I use my drill as a sander and a screwdriver, among other things. But that's just me.

I use mine as a screwdriver too, so 2 parallel questions. Why do you want the drill? Why do you want the seats to fold flat?

 

[Yggdrasill]

I find this post interesting. People here have said that it is not a utility if it does not have folding seats. So I would like to know why? Think about this: when you buy a drill, you do not want a drill, you want a hole. So my question to Model X reservation holders is:

What will you not be able to do with Model X that you would have been able to if the second row seats folded flat?

Carrying large items, like furniture. Sleeping in the back of the car. Folding down the middle seat and loading up skis, while using 4-5 seats. Carrying long narrow items conveniently, and without potentially damaging the leather. Carrying dogs safely and conveniently. Etc.

Now I can understand the issue for people who have to configure before we have all the Specs, but my follow up question for the rest of you is: How do you know?

We don't know 100% just yet. But as far as I know, no one has cancelled their reservations yet, but are waiting for Tesla to come with more information. However, you have the images at the start of this thread which are strong indications that the Model X will be unsuitable for a wide range of needs.

 

[Skotty]

Honestly, I'll be shocked if the 2nd row seats don't do something interesting that hasn't been revealed yet. Talk of the 2nd row seats being works of art, talk of delays due to getting the seats right, talks of them being harder than the doors, at a company with some of the best engineers on the planet, accomplishing things other companies think is impossible. If scoot and tilt forward is all they do, I would be very interested in hearing a deeper dive into what exactly was so complicated about them. They have built in seat belts, but I can't imagine that was the extent of it.

I don't really give a hoot personally, looks like plenty of space for my needs, and I'd personally rather have seats optimized for occupants. But obviously a lot of people do give a hoot about the folding thing.

 

[CarlK]

I find this post interesting. People here have said that it is not a utility if it does not have folding seats. So I would like to know why? Think about this: when you buy a drill, you do not want a drill, you want a hole. So my question to Model X reservation holders is:

What will you not be able to do with Model X that you would have been able to if the second row seats folded flat?

Now I can understand the issue for people who have to configure before we have all the Specs, but my follow up question for the rest of you is: How do you know?

Those people argue every utility vehicle has seats that fold flat but every utility vehicle also has engine that burns gas and knobs and buttons instead of touch screen for controls. Just because something is not what you are used to does not mean it will be worse and not better. If you can't trust that Tesla can make something new that can be even better than what we are used to then maybe you don't deserve to be a Tesla customer.

I really think people don't realize that the non folding seat design is potentially better then the traditional. As I mentioned before, I'm confident Tesla laid out both configurations. Then they went to department stores and funiture stores and Home Depot etc and obtained logs of what people bought. Then they experimented and shove all these items into the X testing both configurations and to their surprise, the final non folding design was more efficient. People here may disagree but I'm sure if they could compare the 2 side by side, the nay Sayers would also realize that Tesla's final layout does in fact allow you more versatility. There has never been an SUV like the X. Nothing with a roof opening and deep floors to load things. This allows for so many different things to be stored that could not be stored with a higher floor when the seats are folded. I really think they could have put in folding seats if they wanted as we have seen plenty examples on this thread of folding seats with in-seat seat belts that are not anchored to the frame. So I really believe they put these seats in cause they found it had more utility.

I for one think comfort and convenience of my passengers in the back is more important than my occasional need to haul large stuff. I will be able to find way around it when I do. The target customer base for the X is actually said to be women more than men. Most of what woman owners care is how easy it is to put kids and friends in the back of car. My reservation is for wife too. If you ask her whether she could fit a 4x8 in the back of the car you would get a "huh?" for answer.

 

[PeterW]

Carrying large items, like furniture. Sleeping in the back of the car. Folding down the middle seat and loading up skis, while using 4-5 seats. Carrying long narrow items conveniently, and without potentially damaging the leather. Carrying dogs safely and conveniently. Etc.

We don't know 100% just yet. But as far as I know, no one has cancelled their reservations yet, but are waiting for Tesla to come with more information. However, you have the images at the start of this thread which are strong indications that the Model X will be unsuitable for a wide range of needs.

Ok, good answer. I give you the long narrow items bit, up to the amount of length lost. Skis as well, thou they have a hitch for that. I understand your point about the danger for the dogs, as you have said earlier. Perhaps that is solvable. I question the first 2. We need specs on that and to see how it works in the real world

 

[huntjo]

For safety, dogs should be inside a carrier box and not freely mobile in the back of a vehicle

 

[FlasherZ]

Can you stop putting words into people's mouths?
[...]
Everyone agrees that there is selection bias involved - your opinion is that there is a lot of selection bias, our opinion is that there is a small amount of selection bias. In all probability, we won't be able to agree which is the case.

You said that there wasn't enough selection bias to taint the poll, and that the poll is an "indicator". That's completely wrong because it's not a neutral poll, it starts with a loaded question that will overload self-selection bias rather than try to eliminate it. This is one of the simpler ones to identify. A self-selecting poll with 2 answers of "I *hate* broccoli and will never eat it" / "I don't really care whether I eat broccoli or not" is mostly going to self-select the former, and leave the apathetic (those who won't self-select) the latter.

You're right, we won't agree here. You're basically saying "It's my opinion that 2 equals 5, and we'll have to agree to disagree". Well, ok, I suppose you can, but that's not exactly something to be proud of.

 

[Yggdrasill]

You said that there wasn't enough selection bias to taint the poll, and that the poll is an "indicator". That's completely wrong because it's not a neutral poll, it starts with a loaded question that will overload selection bias rather than try to eliminate it.

You're right, we won't agree here. You're basically saying "It's my opinion that 2 equals 5, and we'll have to agree to disagree". Well, ok, I suppose you can, but that's not exactly something to be proud of.

The poll questions are fairly neutral, and I find your rhetoric objectionable. It's more like we have a jar of beads; I say the jar contains 100 beads and you say the jar contains 1000 beads. We will just have to wait until they are counted to be sure, but you in no way have the high ground or anything.

 

[FlasherZ]

The poll questions are fairly neutral, and I find your rhetoric objectionable. It's more like we have a jar of beads; I say the jar contains 100 beads and you say the jar contains 1000 beads. We will just have to wait until they are counted to be sure, but you in no way have the high ground or anything.

No, it's nothing like that.

The questions are highly biased.

The poll is entitled "how important is it for you that the 2nd row seats of the Model X are stowable?" - it's not entitled "Is it important for you", it's "how important" which implies that it is important.

The subtitle of the poll is "What do you need to not cancel your Model X reservation?" No selection bias from that? Really?

The next two options then start with "I require" and are loaded toward someone who feels very strongly.
The third option says "It's not a deal-breaker... but...", which implies a negative on top of the deal-breaker.
And finally, your fourth option says "I don't care either way", which is going to be undersampled because of self-selection - those who don't care are going to answer the poll on a lower frequency basis than those who have passion about it.

So then, you went to compare the number of people that care (first 2 options) vs. those who don't care as much (next 2 options, more apathetic). YOU CANNOT DO THIS - it will generate lower frequencies in the latter vs. former.

The *only* thing this poll will tell you is that 58 people selected option "A" and 47 people selected option "B". You can't guarantee they're even Model X reservation holders, or even that they have any interest in the Model X whatsoever. For all we know, 15 of the 58 could be some of the lurker GM execs who would love to see an article on the blogs pop up that "Tesla doesn't care about its customers".

The poll is deeply flawed. Not just a little bit, but deeply flawed from a statistical point of view.

I reiterate the basic statistics textbook information I posted earlier:

From Essentials of Statistics, 5th ed., by Triola:

* Sampling Method: With voluntary response samples (self-selected samples), we can draw valid conclusions only about the specific group of people who chose to participate; nevertheless, such samples are often incorrectly used to assert or imply conclusions about a larger population. From a statistical viewpoint, such a sample is fundamentally flawed and should not be used for making general statements about a larger population.

* Small Samples: Conclusions should not be based on samples that are far too small.

* Loaded Questions: If survey questions are not worded carefully, the results of a study can be misleading.

* Order of Questions: Sometimes survey questions are unintentionally loaded by such factors as the order of the items being considered.

If you find someone who has any reputation in statistical analysis willing to stand behind your statement, I'll hear her/him out. Until then - I'll go with well-established statistical analysis rules. That said, you're well-set in your opinion, in opposition to nearly the entire world of statistical analysis.

If you can't consider that, then there's nothing else I can do, in which case I wish you well.

 

[Hkpkfan]

That's exactly where we are.
It's funny. I was a little mad at my wife in 2013 when she was dragging her feet until we decided to make the reservation - which moved us back about 3000 spots.
By now I have apologized to her and thanked her for her wisdom... by the time we'll be asked to configure loads of cars will be on the streets, the store should have a demo car and (hehe) if we are lucky the second generation second row seats and the battery with the better supercharger rate will have been introduced
So yes, @ohmman - you're not alone with that realization. I don't know what your reservation number is, but it sounds like we are in a similar situation.

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Just to prevent misinformation - I may have posted a lot here, but I don't have a Sig reservation (P6218), I haven't been invited to configure (thankfully - I want to drive the car before committing) and haven't had a chance to talk with Tesla sales about the questions. I have, however, seen a handful of actual Sig reservation holders post here and may have repeated the information they provided...

I'm not in the exact same situation, but similar. I was dying to buy the S, I test drove it a couple times and fell in love and I wanted it more than anything. Yet my wife the ever practical one, said it doesn't suit the needs of our family and how often we have guests. Needing the flexibility of 5 to 7 seats is important so we decided it was not practical to go down from a Minivan/SUV all these years to then switch to a Sedan. Unfortunately our ICE SUV was on it's last legs and we HAD to purchase something. That was 12 months ago.

I decided then that I'm going for the Model X, but realized I will need to wait a 3-4 years because now I need to get my money's worth out of this ICE SUV, but that's OK because I've already waited 1 year and the Model X is not even out yet. The wait list in HK after a deposit is usually a year or two anyway so I don't have to stress about any decision without a touch/feel experience. So by the time I actually do get my model X, I will hopefully be getting model 2.0 or 3.0 with plenty of Model X's driving around to sit in and take test drives and play with 2nd row seats.

I wonder how many consumers are like me? Who have 100% plans to buy a Model X but sitting on the sidelines no deposit just waiting for the right time a couple years down the road. I fully expect my next car purchase to be the Model X Tesla, but how do you even gauge how big the market is for future Tesla buyers who love Teslas but are waiting until the next car purchase. Tesla's aren't like iphones where you buy the next one 12 months later, a car purchase (for me at least) is something done only every 3-5 years.

 

[Yggdrasill]

No, it's nothing like that.

The questions are highly biased.

You are of course entitled to your opinion. We will just have to wait and see to what extent the poll is accurate. (Unless Tesla preemps the consequences by announcing folding seats.)

 

[flar]

I have explained this several times. We do not believe the storage will be sufficient, but we will wait until the official reveal.

OK, then I guess you misread my reply. I granted that there was concern about the cargo capacity, but you had said that the X would have "less capable road tripping for five people" and that was the part that I was challenging. You then disagreed with my assessment which led me to believe that you were doubling down on your "road tripping" comment. I don't really see any way in which that particular usage would have someone wanting an S over an X (other than range, but you'd give up comfort and with 5 people seated the X will likely have more room for luggage than the S with 5 people in it).

 

[EchoDelta]

For safety, dogs should be inside a carrier box and not freely mobile in the back of a vehicle

When you have 160lb fluff balls sometimes the fenced whole back of the car becomes the carrier box. Our dog can barely turn around in the back of a CRV- or can have his nose out a passenger window and his tail out the other when in the back seat.
We actually call our suv the "driveable dog crate"

 

[Auzie]

Everyone agrees that there is selection bias involved - your opinion is that there is a lot of selection bias, our opinion is that there is a small amount of selection bias. In all probability, we won't be able to agree which is the case.

Yggdrasill

The statistical validity of the discussed poll is not subject to anyone's agreement or disagreement, the (non) validity of the said poll is factual.

There are numerous reasons why the poll is not a valid indicator of the target X market preferences. Most of the reasons that make the poll invalid were outlined in detail by FlasherZ.

I do not know how Tesla evaluated their target X market. I read somewhere here that there was a panel of females involved as a focus group for model X development. My expectation from such a group would be that they would emphasise safety and comfort of passengers as their top priorities, far above any other concerns.

Target X market are likely to be people that drive several other people around. Most likely the majority of the population in the X target market are parents. There may be other reasons to be in the market for X, but I would be surprised if parents were not the majority. If that is the case, the rationale for compromising hauling space for safer more comfortable seats and for easier access to the second row due to falcon wing doors becomes clear.

I would not be surprised if the non-folding seats are a consequence of racing to make the release date and of being unable to solve seats supply issues in the given time frame. If the folding seats are important to some customers, it might be an idea to hold on with the purchase. I'd like to think that the folding seats will be available as an improvement if customers deem it relevant.

Update: Interesting article in Bloomberg, Tesla asked women what they wanted and came up with Model X

Highlights:

Tesla designed X to appeal to female drivers

Women purchase 53% of small SUVs and 48% of small premium SUVs

Order of priorities: a third-row seats, cargo space, safety, reliability, fuel economy, performance.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I wonder how many consumers are like me? Who have 100% plans to buy a Model X but sitting on the sidelines no deposit just waiting for the right time a couple years down the road. I fully expect my next car purchase to be the Model X Tesla, but how do you even gauge how big the market is for future Tesla buyers who love Teslas but are waiting until the next car purchase. Tesla's aren't like iphones where you buy the next one 12 months later, a car purchase (for me at least) is something done only every 3-5 years.

Or even less often. My plan is to keep the Model X for 10-20 years. So, I find the option of buying a compromised version unappealing. I may still buy it, if the price is right, but I'm definitely leaning towards cancelling.

I've been actively considering buying a Tesla since 2012, but it keeps being just a little further out than I'm willing to go. First it was AWD, then it was tow hitch, now it's foldgate, which I didn't see coming at all. The trend is that Tesla is constantly improving, and they're getting closer and closer to a car I can buy, but it's certainly a long wait.

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Yggdrasill

The statistical validity of the discussed poll is not subject to anyone's agreement or disagreement, the (non) validity of the said poll is factual.

To some extent or other, every poll ever conducted is invalid. The disagreement is about to which extent the poll is valid/invalid.

 

[Auzie]

To some extent or other, every poll ever conducted is invalid. The disagreement is about to which extent the poll is valid/invalid.

Agree with the above statement to a degree. If a poll is done on the whole population (not a sample) and other poll criteria are not compromised (refer to FlasherZ leading questions and similar) then such a poll is likely to provide quite meaningful information about the population. Providing people are truthful.

However, we are not discussing here every poll but a specific poll which has no validity for reasons outlined by FlasherZ, I will not repeat them.