Next generation 2170 cell battery packs

[Cloxxki]

People now buying 100's are hardly buying it over the 90 for range. P100DL barely goes further than 90D, right?
Those who care about range have not really entered the 100 game yet, as most won't spend the crazy extra for PL just to get a little bit of additional range over the 90D.
Would you guy rather have a P100DL that's the quickest car on the market, or a 125D that costs the same and goes 25% further? 400 miles EPA... The 125 will be cheaper to run actually as you'll use road side chargers less often. And longer road trips simply take you less time. Especially when towing. I follow Bjorn Nyland's adventures. Imagine he'd have a 125D in stead of a P90DL, the ease of travel he'd have. Skipping most of those slow and expensive chargers. There will be a market for long range cars, and Tesla has a reputation to defend.
Granted, this reputation is not under fire at all, but with competitors bringing more and more concept BEV's to shows, it doesn't hurt to offer better spec'd cars than the concepts teased for 2020.
I'd totally want a 125 over a racier P100DL, as it offers even more freedom. And better value when parting it out

 

[sandpiper]

Why would Tesla redesign the pack with the old cells when the new ones are so close. Once the packs were redesigned, why would their availability be so constrained? Could they be using the new cells already? That would explain the volume constraint.

I tend to think not. But I agree that it would be silly to ramp up a new line just to switch to another type of cell months later. There's information in that apparent contradiction.

My bet is that the new pack design is such that it can accommodate 2170s or 18650s with a minor tooling/program changeover. And I'll further bet that it's the same line that will produce modules (maybe packs?) for early model 3s.

That aligns well with their extreme flexibility production philosophy. And it allows them to test out the manufacturing processes for the Model 3 pack well in advance of having to go live with actual Model 3s. Further, it might also explain Elon's comments that the new 100 pack was "complex". It might not be that the pack itself is complex. It might be that the manufacturing process being used is complex and that it's taking time to work out the bugs on a very low volume.

 

[sandpiper]

Would you guy rather have a P100DL that's the quickest car on the market, or a 125D that costs the same and goes 25% further? 400 miles EPA... The 125 will be cheaper to run actually as you'll use road side chargers less often. And longer road trips simply take you less time.

I agree. One thing that's always missed is that the larger packs would significantly reduce demand for supercharging and even destination charging. Right now, with my P85D, I supercharge twice a month. With a 100, it might be half that. If I had a 125, with around 700 km range, I would pretty much never supercharge. Put a 125kwh battery in a fairly cost effective vehicle and the ICE is dead to 95% of the population.

 

[bob_p]

The 100 battery packs may be the optimal size for long distance driving on the supercharger network.

A few months ago, we took a 2500 mile road trip with our P85 - and had several legs with long distances or high winds between chargers, and had to slow down considerably to make it to the next charger.

If the 100D ends up with 340+ miles of rated range (about 30% more than our P85), that difference could be enough to ensure we could maintain desired highway speed between chargers and keep the charger to 80% or below at each charger (minimizing the time spent at each charger).

100 or larger battery packs really only have benefit for long distance driving, since local daily driving typically requires less range. And if the 100 battery packs work well on the SC network, increasing the pack size above that may provide diminishing returns - and have a smaller market.

If Tesla wants to continue selling the Model S at the current or increasing volumes, they will face increasing downward pressure on pricing. The $7500 tax credit will likely be phased out by late 2018. The Bolt & Model 3 will be selling in the $30-50K price range. Tesla will exhaust the "early adopters" interested in buying long range EV cars - and will have to compete more effectively against luxury ICEs/hybrids. And having a $60-70K price difference above the Bolt/Model 3 for a Model S may be hard to justify.

The largest cost items for the Model S are the battery pack and motor. The costs of these two components should continue to go down - giving Tesla the ability to both increase their profit margin on each car and lower the price point.

How many of us purchased HDTVs or UHDTVs when they first came on the market - only to see the prices drop considerably and functionality increase within a few years? The Model S and X should follow a similar life cycle model - the Model 3 is the 2nd generation product, at the lower price point, and there should be room for the Model S and X product lines to see similar improvements, providing more capabilities at a lower price.

 

[artsci]

We early adapters with P85s or lower battery capacity packs hope that Tesla eventually makes battery pack upgrades available. I'm fine with the 85 (drove cross country with it and no problems whatsoever) but if Tesla eventually makes possible an upgrade to 125 many of us are likely to take the bait. Of course, there may be some major technical problems with such upgrades. Would be grateful for the comments of others about the technical challenges of such upgrade options. Are they even feasible without major modifications to the car?

 

[hingisfan]

And us 60 owners will buy your used 85/90 packs for a nice price!

 

[Michelx]

Artsci i don't see any major problems replacing a say 85 pack with a 125 one as long as the voltage is the same it.s like a bigger gas tank

 

[R.S]

A change like that could have been seen since they announced the gigafactory. This will be the first major change to the cell since the Roadster and it will have a similar effect.

The real question is, if its really wise to go for the big jump and boost range by some 20% at once. There is still barely any competition out there, so if I were in charge, I'd go slow.

-keep the new pack at 100kWh and reduce the manufacturing costs as well as the cars weight (should add a bit of range)
-go in small steps of 5kWh every year, while doing research on the next generation of cells, to keep it interesting.
-if some competition bursts in that has more range, or more power. Match them, or better outdo them, in a single swipe.

Of course all of that depends on how much power a new 100kWh pack could deliver, if it would be slower than the current P100D, they might have to increase the pack size accordingly, but I kind of doubt it.

 

[sandpiper]

A change like that could have been seen since they announced the gigafactory. This will be the first major change to the cell since the Roadster and it will have a similar effect.

The real question is, if its really wise to go for the big jump and boost range by some 20% at once. There is still barely any competition out there, so if I were in charge, I'd go slow.

-keep the new pack at 100kWh and reduce the manufacturing costs as well as the cars weight (should add a bit of range)
-go in small steps of 5kWh every year, while doing research on the next generation of cells, to keep it interesting.
-if some competition bursts in that has more range, or more power. Match them, or better outdo them, in a single swipe.

Of course all of that depends on how much power a new 100kWh pack could deliver, if it would be slower than the current P100D, they might have to increase the pack size accordingly, but I kind of doubt it.

Uh... why? There is a group of people for whom EVs become practical at >120kwh. Why would you not want to serve them as well? Tesla has an open window in which to establish themselves while the competition is still running around in circles. The more dominant that they can become during that period, the more difficult it will be for the much better financed competitors to overcome the advantage.

When you're racing against much bigger, stronger runners and you've been gifted a head start, you have to use it for all that it's worth. Don't fk around.

 

[Cloxxki]

Indeed, why?
Diminishing returns of a larger pack were mentioned.
Looks at the diminishing returns going from a P90DL to a P100DL. Even though it seems to pack 12-15% more cell (and range), people sold their P90DL to not miss out of the upgrade. ~0.1-0.2s for 0-60mph. Similar over the 1/4 mile.

A bare S125 will do very decent mileage, close to 400 miles EPA, even not being a D. really, considering Tesla made money on the 2012 60's, and cell cost will have fallen over the yers thanks to volume and will go off a cliff with the 2170, they'll be able to sell the 125 at the price of the current 60, and not really hurt too much for it. Loosely mentioned was a $400/kWh cell cost, now to head toward or below $200/kWh. That makes the 100 a $20K barrel worth of with cells, plus the wiring, casing and cooling to screw it to the car. A $30K pack? The upgrade to 125 would add $5K.

Yeah, the reduced need to supercharge will be a great thing, also for Tesla's SuC network, you'd rarely see a 125 at the SuC, it just drives past. This whole network available to you, and then to rarely need it. And when needing it, much later in a day's driving, only for short stops thanks to taking the full SuC power deep into the charge.
For the intrigued buyers, who like the Model S look and the idea of being green (brag to colleagues and friends), not to mention the drag strip performance, it's a hurdle to not be able to drive comfortably (range anxiety) on open highways. Germany. Tesla is not doing great there. A 125kWh Autobahn edition would shake the German luxury sedan market. If you can't drive 180-200kph for 1 hour and another back without much charging, they'll just not buy it. People have driving to do, and little time to do it in. 125kWh would win over the majority of the potential market. German cars may have decent mileage in tests, their actual mileage on a tank when visiting the in-laws on a Sunday is not so great. But they can cover great distances if traffic allows. Tesla's to dates are not acceptable for many Germans, their reality is different. Not to speak of the business customers. And don't mistake them for a smalll niche market. If Tesla makes a car the Germans like, they can easily double their production of S&X with it.

 

[DarkMatter]

Uh... why? There is a group of people for whom EVs become practical at >120kwh. Why would you not want to serve them as well? Tesla has an open window in which to establish themselves while the competition is still running around in circles. The more dominant that they can become during that period, the more difficult it will be for the much better financed competitors to overcome the advantage.

When you're racing against much bigger, stronger runners and you've been gifted a head start, you have to use it for all that it's worth. Don't fk around.

You don't worry about a 125 pack yet because right now even selling a 100 pack you're twice what anyone else is putting out in the market. The few people who need that big of a pack are not the people you need to spend time chasing when you've still barely scratched the surface of the market.

 

[David99]

You don't worry about a 125 pack yet because right now even selling a 100 pack you're twice what anyone else is putting out in the market. The few people who need that big of a pack are not the people you need to spend time chasing when you've still barely scratched the surface of the market.

History taught us that this isn't true. Tesla came out with a battery size almost 4 times the size of any other EV. No one really needs to drive 250 miles a day. But people wanted it. Tesla even offered a 40 kWh version but almost no one bought it so it was discontinued. Theories about what people need do not match how people make buying decisions.

It's kind of the same as 90% of the time there is only one person in the car, but we still want 4 or 5 comfortable seats and space for luggage. The same is true for a large battery. We don't need it for the majority of the times, but we want to have the ability to take longer trips conveniently. If I would buy my car again today and there was the choice between 60 -100 and 125, I would get the 125 for sure.

 

[DarkMatter]

At a certain point you're just hauling extra battery around every day for no good reason though. It's not like these cars are set up to hail a fifth wheel, or similar things. Yes they could get some marginal sales but there are still many sales to be made at the current sizes. They have limited engineering resources so at times they have to make choices about what to pursue, and cramming even more batteries in doesn't really seem on mission.

 

[sandpiper]

At a certain point you're just hauling extra battery around every day for no good reason though. It's not like these cars are set up to hail a fifth wheel, or similar things. Yes they could get some marginal sales but there are still many sales to be made at the current sizes. They have limited engineering resources so at times they have to make choices about what to pursue, and cramming even more batteries in doesn't really seem on mission.

I suspect this opinion will vary dramatically based on where the person you're talking to lives. In Washington superchargers are everywhere and it never gets that cold. In the central US and certainly in most of Canada you're pretty limited and you get hit hard by cold weather.

I appreciate that to you, we may appear to be at the margins. But I can quite assure you that Tesla will be looking to move a lot more of the high margin S/X's once the Model 3s start eating into the sales of the much lower margin 60/75s.

In my area virtually everybody who buys a Tesla would go for a 120 if it were available. And I know others who won't buy one because there is too little winter range. With less, you simply can't have it as your only vehicle. And if Tesla is to be believed a 2170-120 wouldn't weigh any more or cost any more than the current full size 90 or 100 packs.

 

[DarkMatter]

Aren't the Superchargers spaced to allow use by cars with a 60 pack? I find it hard to believe that the weather would hit range so much that a 100 pack could not make it when in fair weather a 60 pack could.

Even if that is the case, road trips are the exception rather than the rule for most drivers, so it likely makes more sense to add more superchargers rather than have people haul around extra battery that they don't need 99% of the time. It's cheaper for the vehicle owner, too.

 

[HebrHmr]

Aren't the Superchargers spaced to allow use by cars with a 60 pack? I find it hard to believe that the weather would hit range so much that a 100 pack could not make it when in fair weather a 60 pack could.

Even if that is the case, road trips are the exception rather than the rule for most drivers, so it likely makes more sense to add more superchargers rather than have people haul around extra battery that they don't need 99% of the time. It's cheaper for the vehicle owner, too.

We just need enough cars on the road for someone like Pilot to partner with Tesla.

It's already in the cards..

Quick Chek convenience store tests Tesla Superchargers in NY's Hudson Valley

 

[azdryheat]

History taught us that this isn't true. Tesla came out with a battery size almost 4 times the size of any other EV. No one really needs to drive 250 miles a day. But people wanted it. Tesla even offered a 40 kWh version but almost no one bought it so it was discontinued. Theories about what people need do not match how people make buying decisions.

It's kind of the same as 90% of the time there is only one person in the car, but we still want 4 or 5 comfortable seats and space for luggage. The same is true for a large battery. We don't need it for the majority of the times, but we want to have the ability to take longer trips conveniently. If I would buy my car again today and there was the choice between 60 -100 and 125, I would get the 125 for sure.

Not sure where you get that nobody needs to drive 250 miles in a day. We have driven our MS 500 miles in one day. When we go to California (which is often), we drive between 400 and 900 miles in one day. Have not done it yet in the MS, but soon.

 

[David99]

Not sure where you get that nobody needs to drive 250 miles in a day. We have driven our MS 500 miles in one day. When we go to California (which is often), we drive between 400 and 900 miles in one day. Have not done it yet in the MS, but soon.

Oh I know there are people who drive a lot. I'm at 93k miles in 2.5 years. But that's not the average driver. The average person drives 12-15k miles a year. They might take a road trip here and there and for the rest of the time they drive 25 miles a day. That's the majority of people. Yet the majority opted for the 85 over the 60 when the Model S came out. And almost no one bought the 40 despite the fact that it would have plenty of range for daily driving.
My point was that when people say, 'no one needs a 125 kWh battery, so it's not a priority', that's just not how people make buying decisions. People want large capacity batteries despite the fact they almost never use it.

 

[brianman]

In Washington superchargers are everywhere

Um, no. We have exactly 5 locations.

 

[bob_p]

Aren't the Superchargers spaced to allow use by cars with a 60 pack? I find it hard to believe that the weather would hit range so much that a 100 pack could not make it when in fair weather a 60 pack could.

60s can use the current SC network, but in cases where there are long distances between chargers, the 60s likely have to slow down - and when at the chargers may need to charge to 90-100% before leaving, which significantly increases charging times.

And on the last 500 miles of the trip, we hit very strong headwinds, which increased energy consumption considerably and we had to slow down quite a bit to get our 85 battery pack to stretch far enough to make it to the next charger.

Our P85 was rated for 265 miles of range. We've lost about 5% of that range (which appears typical), reducing the 100% range to around 255. We try to keep our charge level between 10-90%, which reduces the effective range to 204 miles. And, at typical highway speeds, we've found we use energy 30% faster than the rated range, further reducing the effective range to 143 miles - and that estimate has worked reasonably well on most of our road trips. And that's enough to drive on most of the SC network without having to do energy management (slowing down) unless there are other circumstances, such as headwinds, precipitation or elevation changes.

Assuming a 100D gets 340 miles of range, using the same adjustments, the effective range would be increased to 181 miles (at typical highway speeds). And that should be more than enough to drive on the current SC network without having to do any energy management, with enough cushion to handle most unusual circumstances. And depending upon the SC spacing, it may be possible to keep the charging level at 80% or less at many chargers, which reduces the charging time during the trip.

Going beyond a 100 battery pack would have further improvements, with diminishing returns as the battery pack size increases.