Only initial options: color and wheel size?

[Big-T]

By the sound of it, most options and packages for the S/X may not be available for the Model 3. 100 configurations isn't much when you factor in at least 6 colors, 2 battery sizes and 2 drivetrain configurations. If there are multiple roof options, and you can assume it'll have some sort of heated seat/steering option and more than 1 interior color --well thats already over 100 configurations =p we're not even getting one of those things.

Personally I doubt there will be two battery options at launch, and Elon said yesterday in the shareholder meeting there would only be one drive train available at launch, so that reduces the numbers quite a bit.

Also, I'm stretching a little here, but based on Elon's comments that the initial configuration will basically be wheels and paint, and the fact we've seen no RC models that don't have a fixed glass roof, I'd say it's glass roof only on Day 1 configurations.

What does that leave us? 6 colors, 2 wheels, perhaps your choice of accent strip/wood on the dash, and some kind of Interior upgrades package

 

[Foxhound199]

No matter what they decide to do with the configurator, I hope they at least make it clear how certain options will impact your expected delivery time. Perhaps that's the idea behind having very limited initial configurations--that all of them will be equally prioritized. I just don't want to wind up not checking the box on something like EAP only to find out they're prioritizing orders that have it.

 

[sports4eva115]

WE'RE SO CLOSE!!!!!!I WANT MY ≡ !!!

 

[wrf2e]

RWD, smaller battery (215 miles), and autopilot convenience features (not full self driving) is what I have been certain about wanting this whole time. The rest (premium sound, seats, winter package etc.) were going to depend on cost. This may make my choice much simpler lol. Now, to see if the car I have in mind is available initially, or some other version.

 

[mtndrew1]

I suspect that the ramp up risk is less with building battery packs at the Gigafactory than building the car at Fremont, and therefore it doesn't apply to the "simplify the production" approach. I thought I remember someone at Tesla stating that the Gigafactory was not going to be the bottleneck, but maybe I remember incorrectly. Larger battery packs would bring higher margins and would not be any more difficult to install in the car once at the pack level.

I agree here. While I would love to have the base battery at launch and spend the money on other goodies (or keep it in my pocket) I don't think that's how it will go. As Fremont works on the very complex ramp of assembling the rest of the car and they're dribbling out of the factory I assume that Sparks can keep them sufficiently stocked with the larger battery pack and its associated high margins.

 

[tpatana]

Here's my prediction: initially they will have 2-3 versions to choose from. One will be bare bones for sure at $35k so they can satisfy the claim Elon has been making. Then there's be 1 version with upgraded battery and some other options, and possibly one more with plenty options (hifi sounds etc). Depending what's the bottleneck (batteries or the assembly line), they'll balance the build numbers between the base model and the big battery pack, optimize number of cars built vs. cars with better profit.

After the line is running more smoothly and they are not 500k cars behind, they'll start adding more options and also let's people add detailed configurations instead of pre-selected sets.

 

[Wolverinegeoff]

Here's my prediction: initially they will have 2-3 versions to choose from. One will be bare bones for sure at $35k so they can satisfy the claim Elon has been making. Then there's be 1 version with upgraded battery and some other options, and possibly one more with plenty options (hifi sounds etc). Depending what's the bottleneck (batteries or the assembly line), they'll balance the build numbers between the base model and the big battery pack, optimize number of cars built vs. cars with better profit.

After the line is running more smoothly and they are not 500k cars behind, they'll start adding more options and also let's people add detailed configurations instead of pre-selected sets.

I don't see the need to satisfy the $35,000 "claim" right away. That's still the cost of the base model, but they're making 75kw battery models first presumably. People can bitch and moan, but in the end, they can either wait, or spring for more options. Such is life.

 

[JeffK]

I don't see the need to satisfy the $35,000 "claim" right away. That's still the cost of the base model, but they're making 75kw battery models first presumably. People can bitch and moan, but in the end, they can either wait, or spring for more options. Such is life.

Bad press can upset the stock price which will anger shareholders. It's a risky move.

 

[Wolverinegeoff]

Bad press can upset the stock price which will anger shareholders. It's a risky move.

True! But if he just gives some sort of date (e.g. Call the first batch "Signature" or something similar, Base model available in September!) I think they'll be fine. Short term stock swings are not concerning to Elon and Tesla unless they are needing to raise more money through additional stock offerings. Stock price is more likely to be significantly affected if their quarter report shows they are losing a ton of money on base model 3's and the stupid narrative goes to "OMG Tesla can't make money on the 3! What a failure! Sell sell sell!" This way, they can *hopefully* show relatively healthy margins as they get production going, then work into the lower margin base model cars.

 

[tpatana]

I don't see the need to satisfy the $35,000 "claim" right away. That's still the cost of the base model, but they're making 75kw battery models first presumably. People can bitch and moan, but in the end, they can either wait, or spring for more options. Such is life.

They could make small number just to satisfy the claim, plus if the gigafactory is the bottleneck then they might do mostly small battery pack versions so they can push out more cars. So I'll stick to my prediction for now at least.

 

[mtndrew1]

Bad press can upset the stock price which will anger shareholders. It's a risky move.

Fourteen months ago the promised date for any Model 3 was "late 2017" which the entire collective world took to mean "one might pop out of the factory by December 31st, 2018 at 11:59 PM."

Delivering anything in any configuration in any meaningful quantity in July of 2017 will make the stock price explode. They'll start with the highest margins they can assemble and work from there. There won't be any shortage of customers to absorb whatever they build in the first several months of production. Hell, I helped a friend buy a BMW 328i who spent $8,000 more than her budget because she wanted a specific shade of blue and that blue (Estoril) only came with a boatload of additional options.

 

[flamingoezz]

Did he say the 100 configurations will be 'at launch'? My assumption was that is all they plan to have for the forseeable future.

Personally I doubt there will be two battery options at launch, and Elon said yesterday in the shareholder meeting there would only be one drive train available at launch, so that reduces the numbers quite a bit.

Also, I'm stretching a little here, but based on Elon's comments that the initial configuration will basically be wheels and paint, and the fact we've seen no RC models that don't have a fixed glass roof, I'd say it's glass roof only on Day 1 configurations.

What does that leave us? 6 colors, 2 wheels, perhaps your choice of accent strip/wood on the dash, and some kind of Interior upgrades package

 

[Runt8]

Did he say the 100 configurations will be 'at launch'? My assumption was that is all they plan to have for the forseeable future.

The "100 configurations" comes from the comparison sheet sent to Tesla employees. There hasn't been any clarification about that number.

 

[nickpants]

The "100 configurations" comes from the comparison sheet sent to Tesla employees. There hasn't been any clarification about that number.

It says it right on their website: Compare Model S and Model 3 | Tesla

 

[Runt8]

It says it right on their website: Compare Model S and Model 3 | Tesla

Yes, that is the comparison sheet. It was originally sent to Tesla employees and then posted to their site and updated a couple times. But the point is that they haven't said what "<100 configurations" actually means. We have no idea if that's at launch, a few months, years, or forever.

 

[gregincal]

Bad press can upset the stock price which will anger shareholders. It's a risky move.

Why would making more money upset the stock price? I really don't seeing not shipping the base model initially being a big deal except for those people who were going to bad mouth Tesla anyway.

 

[JeffK]

Why would making more money upset the stock price? I really don't seeing not shipping the base model initially being a big deal except for those people who were going to bad mouth Tesla anyway.

Only rational, logical, thinkers would understand they are raking in higher margins. I'm talking about non-rational thinkers like seeking alpha contributors who will simply complain Tesla is "breaking their promises" and many saying "I told you so" when referencing quotes saying Tesla couldn't make a $35,000 car.

Some of these things actually make mainstream news channels.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

They could make small number just to satisfy the claim, plus if the gigafactory is the bottleneck then they might do mostly small battery pack versions so they can push out more cars. So I'll stick to my prediction for now at least.

I seriously doubt that the Gigafactory will cause any kind of bottleneck in production. Remember, they have been making cells there for months now. Granted they have been going in energy storage products but it is essentially the same cell.

Dan

 

[JeffK]

I seriously doubt that the Gigafactory will cause any kind of bottleneck in production. Remember, they have been making cells there for months now. Granted they have been going in energy storage products but it is essentially the same cell.

Dan

No, they have not been making NCA 2170s for months. They are essentially the same cell dimensions... they are not the same cell.

As a matter of fact they will likely start making them this month.

 

[gregincal]

Only rational, logical, thinkers would understand they are raking in higher margins. I'm talking about non-rational thinkers like seeking alpha contributors who will simply complain Tesla is "breaking their promises" and many saying "I told you so" when referencing quotes saying Tesla couldn't make a $35,000 car.

Some of these things actually make mainstream news channels.

Yes, and that *sugar* has been happening constantly for as long as Tesla has been in business and will continue no matter what they do. Actually making decisions that are worse for the company in a futile attempt to appease such people would be stupid. Tesla has shown no sign that they let that sort of thinking influence them in the past and the stock has done fine.