Why does it have to happen ever? I suspect that there are more charge cables with a Tesla connector on them in NA than any other connector. Changing to something else would be a huge undertaking. (That ship sailed when they shipped the Model 3 with the Tesla connector.)
IMHO, Tesla doesn't
have to switch to CCS1 in North America, but I expect that one of two things will eventually happen:
- The vast majority of DC fast charging providers (Tesla, Electrify America, EVgo, etc.) will provide two cables on most of their charging cabinets: One for Tesla and one for CCS1; or....
- Tesla will switch from its proprietary connector to CCS1.
The reason is that having two separate standards, with separate locations for charging, is a problem for everybody -- EV drivers, DC fast charging network operators, and Tesla. Non-EV drivers find the current situation with multiple standards confusing, and they balk at the need to learn about the differences. (I see this at National Drive Electric events and in online discussions.) I've noticed highway signage about EV charging start to pop up, but at the moment, the signage I've seen doesn't specify what type of charging is available, which is likely to lead to confusion and frustration. (Signage could be improved, but that will complicate the signage in ways that people will find confusing, at least initially.) Adapters can help, but they're awkward and can fail. DC fast charging network operators want the largest possible customer base, which will drive one of those two solutions. Thus, in the long run, market forces will push for one or the other of those two solutions. That said, consumer demand on this score is likely to be a weak driver; Tesla could hold out on switching to CCS1 for several more years, DC fast charging networks could hold out on supporting both standards for several more years, and Tesla could throw up obstacles to third parties adding Tesla plugs. In the long run, though, I don't think the current segregation of Tesla vs. CCS1 is likely to be sustainable, particularly once we start getting double-digit percentages of cars on the roads being EVs. That quiet consumer demand for convergence will become a roar at that time.
As to the merits of Tesla switching to CCS1, yes, that will be a huge undertaking; however, Tesla has already announced support for CCS1 at its Superchargers. The last I heard, Tesla was talking about using adapters for this purpose, but adapters are an awkward solution at best, and if Federal funds to expand DC fast charging materialize, and if Tesla wants those funds, Tesla may be forced to change plans to providing native CCS1 support, depending on how the Federal regulations are written. All in all, I think that Tesla will have to provide native CCS1 support, sooner or later. If and when Tesla Superchargers begin providing native CCS1 support, then equipping future Teslas with CCS1 will become much easier, and there will be no drawback to older Teslas for the switch. (Tesla could provide a Tesla-to-J1772 Level 1/2 adapter with new cars, much as they provide a J1772-to-Tesla adapter today.) On a broader level, Tesla switching to CCS1 relatively soon will impose much lesser costs on Tesla, on consumers, and on third-party DC fast charging providers than would Tesla holding out and forcing a long-term solution of two-standard support at DC fast chargers generally.