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Tesla Model 3 in Australia
- Thread starter Electric_Blue
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- Australia Model 3 New Zealand
Random206
Member
1st in Line
Member
Sorry, putting exact FSD timing aside for a moment, I disagree on aged care.
For elderly persons to feel/be "independent", they need to be able to go shopping, see doctors and visit friends so they can socialise. For many, the loss of the ability to drive themselves is often the point when they lose that independence - often from one day to the next. That can trigger the decision for them to move into aged care (on average - personal circumstances can always differ), especially when they are single.
With access to autonomous cars, as long as they can still walk to the car, they can still maintain this independence for a bit longer, delaying the move to an aged care facility by months or perhaps years.
I envisage that when autonomous cars hot the market, their rise will be sudden and swift. If it was Tesla flipping the switch in a few years time, you could have millions of robo-taxis on the road from one day to the next. Given the capital intensity of aged-care facilities, if they build additional facilities in anticipation of a certain growth and suddenly just a few percent of that growth do not eventuate (or God forbid, there is a short term decline in new residents). How would that impact on the finances of that geared-up sector?
I could be wrong, but rather than arguing about the pros and cons of coal, we ought to be planning for the significant changes that are coming with the rise of EVs and autonomous vehicles.
1st in Line
Member
I agree, but instead of planning for a sensible renewable energy future, our parliamentary resources are being diverted for a wasteful wild goose chase.
The opportunity cost of this is enormous!
I’ve been involved in the aged care sector for a very long time, as a designer. There is a significant misunderstanding about aged care. Clipsal for example brought out jumbo switches for nursing home light switches on the pretext that its easier for residents to use them, and yet if you have the (somewhat depressing) opportunity to walk around a nursing home its fairly obvious that the residents are not capable of using a light switch, regardless of size. They are even less capable of getting into a car unaided.
There are mulitple levels of aged care, and our governments have definately worked out that ‘aging in place’ is critical to well-being and longevity. It also helps save a lot of $ in funding institutional facilities. Connectivity has had a massive impact for this sector, a sector where everything is brought to the resident at home in a funded package. Most at this stage arent capable of looking after themself, and getting into a car is likley a struggle unaided. (Sorry its a depressing thing getting old)
So most people now go family home - then retirement village (no care just company and a smaller house needed) - then aging in place - then then fun starts with a supported residential facility. Once you are in one of these you arent really capable of independance and its nothing to do with cars. Next stop is full nursing home, and your last car ride will be the autonomous ambulance to take you there. The next car ride you wont know about.
Like everything building industry, the sector will be over developed before it self collapses as an investment. Developers have no self control.
1st in Line
Member
Interesting paulp!
I should have clarified, that I am thinking mostly about "retirement living"/early stage and not the higher care/later stages you describe. My experience comes from the other end of the equation - i.e. observing the situation of my elderly parents. After my father passed away, my mother - a fiercely independent person - wanted to continue living on her own at home. Maybe I am wrong, but I see her ability to remain in her home as closely linked to her controlling her own transportation.
The experience with services brought to her home was that this was not satisfactory, so - in her case - I do not see that as a means to maintaining her at home independence.
However, I do hear what you say, and I do not have the in-depth understanding of the industry in general, but my thoughts are based on a statistical sample of one.
I guess the more important point I wanted to make is that when autonomous driving eventually happens, the favourable economics will mean that it gets rolled out rapidly rather than via gradual adoption.
Not a lot of thought is given to the possible implications of this.
Agree once autonomous is viable, history clearly shows us that there are more than enough humans that will fully exploit the opportunity. As for the implications, history also shows that those who adapt to change survive, and those that dont simply wont. Retail is a very current example. Cars are about to be the next one.
Priit
Active Member
I had similar experience with my grandfather. HE wanted to stay independent and once he could not drive he just walked to the small shop that took him an hour to walk to even though it would have taken me 10 minutes walking or 2 minutes driving. Once he could not walk there and carry anything back, he started asking for help doing shopping. The only requests that he made were to drive him to doctors or his friends occasionally, but beside that he remained independent until he passed away at the age of 93. He was fully capable of taking care of everything else for more than a decade after his ability to be mobile for more than a few hundred meters walk degraded off.
@Random206 nice work on the vin tracker. Not sure why I ended up as a duplicate fyi. A couple of other on there as well.
Vins from the 1st batch now range 4427xx - 4440xx.
There will be gaps, but this is > 500, suggesting the first vehicles will be split across multiple ships. Other single source information from here suggested each ship from now on carry 500 3s. I am thinking along these lines now. As the ships roll through now, we will not know what ships will exactly be holding what.
Kota Ekspres arrives tonight NZ, Brotonne Bridge NZ next Monday. Sydney is all Friday arrivals.
It is impossible for 488xxx, 489xxx, 499xxx, 517xxx vins to be on these ships.
Vins from the 1st batch now range 4427xx - 4440xx.
There will be gaps, but this is > 500, suggesting the first vehicles will be split across multiple ships. Other single source information from here suggested each ship from now on carry 500 3s. I am thinking along these lines now. As the ships roll through now, we will not know what ships will exactly be holding what.
Kota Ekspres arrives tonight NZ, Brotonne Bridge NZ next Monday. Sydney is all Friday arrivals.
It is impossible for 488xxx, 489xxx, 499xxx, 517xxx vins to be on these ships.
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RobDickinson
Active Member
@Vedaprime whats the earliest date you think we can see a 517xxx landed in NZ? Registered 12th August so say on ship ~17th?
The earliest is the Melina. It has just arrived in Oakland and loading now. It arrives Auckland September 16
RobDickinson
Active Member
Thanks.
Sigh. I cant see me getting that car before early October :/
and of which I am mildly pissed off about - they said August when I ordered and it wasnt that far ahead - 2 months delay on an order placed 1-2 months before is terrible.
How the **** are we supposed to arrange our finances for a car arriving one month and it wont turn up for 2 more? And then they have the balls to demand we collect within 7 days.
So now , prepped for an August delivery as promised I've sold 2 cars cheaper than needed and face 6+ weeks in a rental car.
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jontyh
Member
Whilst I realise we are speculating, can someone confirm that VINs are registered as soon as the car is manufactured? Or could there be a delay?
Obviously, the VINs we have found may disappear or be replaced, but assuming they are attached to the cars we have ordered, can we say Veda is correct in his table below.
I'm not doubting your amazing work Veda, I'm just trying to confirm my own assumptions.
RobDickinson
Active Member
RobDickinson
Active Member
The one data point is from the credit note. Vin reg date was 7th July. Build date 9th July, so vin and build are close. We also know vin - boat time is 5-6 days - uk timing, and was same for cap.
The table needs updating now. Old table you have there. We know more.
It's due to the bigger low-profile wheels. They can't handle as much weight.
Random206
Member
Hey mate, thanks
I haven't looked so I may be wrong but your duplicate may be someone else who had the VIN and now you have it instead.
I'm at work now, but I'll comb through the data this afternoon.
For anyone who has entered in incorrect info, please let me know.
It really helps if you add your username so we can chase you up for any questions or clarifications, etc.
Thanks all!
This is an issue, but mainly in inner city areas where roofs are small, may not be facing in the optimum direction (there maybe be only one roof plane, for example) and houses much closer together. Out in the ‘burbs and certainly in rural areas this is unlikely to be a problem unless the house is incredibly energy inefficient or the residents are power hogs.
In my case, I first investigated solar in 2015. At the time, state of the art residential panels were 240W. Given my limited roofspace, that was not enough to become self-sufficient, even if I assumed heroic daily consumption reductions. So I modelled the improvements in panel efficiency and reduction in cost/W over time to estimate when it would be feasible for me to install sufficient solar to provide all my power needs at an economic cost. The answer came out as 2019, and it turned out thusly.
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