Tesla Semi

[ValueAnalyst]

Yup, best on the market today is like <100 miles of range. Best vapor ware is the class 8 Daimler owned Fuso that is reported to be 200 miles. 500 is a magic number because with 30 minute charging there are very few limitations and many of those are things companies will adjust to because is the savings, safety and reliability. A lot of big claims but I own a model X and it's pretty much unreal itself so I expect that Tesla is not over promising on specs but will probably be late like they always are. Or as I like to call it, several years early, but late based on Elon time. I'm just going to assume 2020 and 2021 for the roadster and will be happily surprised when they are early based on my expectations.

Nikola One is probably the closest competition.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Elon himself said that 80% of trucks travel less than 250 miles a day. Telsa hasn't even demonstrated their truck can go 500 miles today or that they even have a charger capable of 1.6MWh charge rate. It doesn't matter what Tesla promises today it matters what they can actually bring to market at the deadline.

Teslas batteries are built by Samsung and Panasonic, there is nothing proprietary, and they have 0% of the heavy duty market.

Dimaler owns 45% of the truck market, they own 40% of the US school bus market. They have their own electric division, they actually profited $10 billion last year, and their current truck will meet the needs of 80% of the truck market. Sounds like Daimler is in a much better position on all counts.

you must be new around here... welcome.

 

[generalenthu]

you must be new around here... welcome.

Funny how you went from Uber bull to jaded bull in a few weeks.

New and improved VA?

 

[jhm]

Tesla can presumably sell a 7 cent PPA to a owner of a single truck. But that PPA will presumably have a quantity attached to a time frame. Use it or lose it.
Tesla can do tighter margins if attached to a guaranteed purchase. They can't spec out megachargers, offer low margin electricity, and hope truckers show up.

"wholesale"

I think use it or lose it sounds right. The big expense here is upfront capital so locking in annual revenue based on access makes sense. For example, consider a rate plan of $25k per year for up to 400MWh per year. That would be a little less than 7c/kWh if more than 357MWh were consumed in a year. But few trucks would be able to consume that much power in a year. But even consuming 250MWh in a year gets to 10c/kWh while is still quite competitive with grid power. Bulk purchase plans make even more sense if a whole fleet can share a plan. A small fleet could easily burn through a 1000MWh/year plan priced at $70k/year. The issues for Tesla achieving high utilization and securing upfront capital.

 

[mongo]

If they go to 48v (which is what was rumored for Model Y) then it is the 12v batteries big cousin. The 48v battery would then be that point of failure.

The whole point of a 12v or 48v battery in an EV isn't to run the standard automotive parts. It's to have a power source outside the Lithium Ion packs to allow the packs to be decoupled when the vehicle is "off". An absolute kill switch that ensures the vehicle is powered down and can be safely cut into by rescue personnel. And an available power source for reconnecting those packs when you want to turn the vehicle on for normal daily use.

Sure it is convenient to run the standard automotive parts and once you have a 12v, 24v, or 48v bus for the battery you might as well use it. But if the safety need didn't exist they'd remove it so fast it would have happened in the 1990s before the Model S/X/3 ever came into being let alone the Semi.

They can change what the non main pack power source is. It can be 12v, 24v, 48v. It can be Lead Acid, SLA, LifePo4, or any other flavor of lithium ion they want but it has to be something small and low enough voltage to not freak out the first responders. Personally I'd hope they switch to one of the lithium flavors. Use the cells they make for powerwalls and make their own low voltage pack.

Whatever they do I'm sure it will be more robust than the single 12v battery currently used in the consumer grade cars and I'm sure it'll still be a point of failure.

Another option is an isolated (from pack) 12/24/48V current limited supply from DC-DC converter in the pack. Tractor could have ideal diode ORing block to combine into one/two power busses. Aux input from charger/ jump pack could handle the situation when all packs are in protection mode.

Edit: safety loop will be a single point failure source, but some things end up with higher RPN on the FMEA...

 

[LCR1]

Well, this much is true, it is a local thing.

I am making the assertion that the "slower" market dominates the trucking business. It incudes the entirety of New England, New York, the traffic-jammed Mid-Atlantic, West Coast, and Chicago megaregions, as well as the Sierras, the Cascades, the Rocky Mountains, the steeper parts of the Appalachians. And have you seen the truck-specific speed limits in a number of the Midwestern states where they could theoretically go faster?

In flat Texas, they may go 85, and I'll note that everyone who thinks trucks go fast seems to be from Texas so far. I don't think the Texas case matters; this simply isn't the majority of the trucking business. It is an unimportant corner case. The AVERAGE speed of trucks in the US, even on Interstates, is well under 65.

Go ahead, take a look at this map, and check out the lower truck speed limits:
Speed limits in the United States by jurisdiction - Wikipedia

The population of the US is heavily weighted towards the areas with lower speed limits, with the exception of Texas. Even in long-haul trucking, the truck driving is weighted towards the areas which have population.

I drove over 40K mile last year in the pickup alone from Coast to Coast and up into Washington. I looked at your link and and noticed that only 5 places have truck speed limits under 65. Oregon which I drove there multiple times and trucks still go faster than that, and California where plenty of people drove faster than the posted speed limit of 55 for trucks. I drive 63-68 with towing with the pickup 65ish in california, and I still had trucks passing me. I also happen to have family in both of those states and I travel there a lot. of the thousands upon thousands of miles I drive the only place I see trucks at the posted limit is in and immediately around urban centers. As soon as I get out of the Inland Empire toward palm springs it's 65+ for trucks until you get towards the AZ border and CHIP comes around. I don't really know what to tell you, you're own link shows less than 10% of municipalities limit truck speeds below 65 and even then that doesn't mean trucks don't speed in those places. Perhaps you should get out more.

Well, maybe if they had an employee shuttle service to get them to and from Reno without driving?

This is what they do in the Houston Medical Center, over 100,000 employees in less than 2 mile footprint. All regular staff park in the NRG and take the train into the med center.

 

[Lessmog]

Honestly, I'm assuming they've engineered the lead-acid 12v out of the semi. It's the known weak point for Model S and X and it was a stated goal to get rid of it for model Y. It's used to power a bunch of standard automotive parts in the S/X/3, but trucks would have different parts.

If they go to 48v (which is what was rumored for Model Y) then it is the 12v batteries big cousin. The 48v battery would then be that point of failure.

The whole point of a 12v or 48v battery in an EV isn't to run the standard automotive parts. It's to have a power source outside the Lithium Ion packs to allow the packs to be decoupled when the vehicle is "off". An absolute kill switch that ensures the vehicle is powered down and can be safely cut into by rescue personnel. And an available power source for reconnecting those packs when you want to turn the vehicle on for normal daily use.

Sure it is convenient to run the standard automotive parts and once you have a 12v, 24v, or 48v bus for the battery you might as well use it. But if the safety need didn't exist they'd remove it so fast it would have happened in the 1990s before the Model S/X/3 ever came into being let alone the Semi.

They can change what the non main pack power source is. It can be 12v, 24v, 48v. It can be Lead Acid, SLA, LifePo4, or any other flavor of lithium ion they want but it has to be something small and low enough voltage to not freak out the first responders. Personally I'd hope they switch to one of the lithium flavors. Use the cells they make for powerwalls and make their own low voltage pack.

Whatever they do I'm sure it will be more robust than the single 12v battery currently used in the consumer grade cars and I'm sure it'll still be a point of failure.

Here's a variant available now. I'm not sure it's cost-effective as a preemptive replacement at $400 and would certainly be cheaper as an original sourced part, but it does exist and is supposed to be drop-in. (Not affiliated in any way.)

 

[Reciprocity]

Nikola One is probably the closest competition.

That's not a Bev. It's a hybrid.

 

[neroden]

They can change what the non main pack power source is. It can be 12v, 24v, 48v. It can be Lead Acid, SLA, LifePo4, or any other flavor of lithium ion they want but it has to be something small and low enough voltage to not freak out the first responders. Personally I'd hope they switch to one of the lithium flavors. Use the cells they make for powerwalls and make their own low voltage pack.

I agree, I hope they switch to lithium-ion.

Whatever they do I'm sure it will be more robust than the single 12v battery currently used in the consumer grade cars and I'm sure it'll still be a point of failure.

 

[neroden]

I drove over 40K mile last year in the pickup alone from Coast to Coast and up into Washington. I looked at your link and and noticed that only 5 places have truck speed limits under 65. Oregon which I drove there multiple times and trucks still go faster than that, and California where plenty of people drove faster than the posted speed limit of 55 for trucks. I drive 63-68 with towing with the pickup 65ish in california, and I still had trucks passing me. I also happen to have family in both of those states and I travel there a lot. of the thousands upon thousands of miles I drive the only place I see trucks at the posted limit is in and immediately around urban centers. As soon as I get out of the Inland Empire toward palm springs it's 65+ for trucks until you get towards the AZ border and CHIP comes around. I don't really know what to tell you, you're own link shows less than 10% of municipalities limit truck speeds below 65 and even then that doesn't mean trucks don't speed in those places. Perhaps you should get out more.

If you're basing the average speed on assumed illegal behavior by truckers... well... I don't know what to say. They get in big trouble when they get caught. You can lose your CDL for speeding.

This is what they do in the Houston Medical Center, over 100,000 employees in less than 2 mile footprint. All regular staff park in the NRG and take the train into the med center.

 

[scottf200]

Apologize if this was shown already. Saw it in a presentation here: Tesla’s VP of Trucks talks about new electric semi, weight, charging, and more

Drivers log on left and Thermal display on right. Obviously I zoomed in so some things are blurry. Wonder if the thermal display is for diagnostics and not part of the normal user interface.

Semi display from video above:

Car - Tesla Model X/S display:

 

[mongo]

Apologize if this was shown already. Saw it in a presentation here: Tesla’s VP of Trucks talks about new electric semi, weight, charging, and more

Drivers log on left and Thermal display on right. Obviously I zoomed in so some things are blurry. Wonder if the thermal display is for diagnostics and not part of the normal user interface.

Cool!

With dual chargers, perhaps the 8 pins on the charge port become 2 sets of 3 phase with ground?

 

[Lessmog]

Cool!

With dual chargers, perhaps the 8 pins on the charge port become 2 sets of 3 phase with ground?

Not an electrician, and non-American too. But over here 3-phase uses 5 leads: apart from the phases, one neutral and one ground. Another possible configuration of 8? Again, JAWAG.

EDIT on second thought, that might overexpose the Neutral, carrying the return of double the power? Still a WAG.

Old farm outlets only had 4 leads, but those are no longer legal -- protective ground is obligatory now.

 

[mongo]

Not an electrician, and non-American too. But over here 3-phase uses 5 leads: apart from the phases, one neutral and one ground. Another possible configuration of 8? Again, JAWAG.

If it is delta, there is no neutral (well there can be for compatibility with lower voltage things, but it's not required, taps in midpoint of one leg). I think the Superchargers run 480 Delta currently. Delta can also be set up without a ground reference (takes two shorts to cause a fault).
Y setups have a center neutral. But if they are balanced, I don't think the neutral carries any current, but removing it is less of a good idea, I think...

 

[Curt Renz]

Wall Street Journal - moments ago: DHL Orders 10 Tesla Semi Trucks

 

[Off Shore]

Unless we're talking about feeding an onboard charger, it's DC & we don't need no stinking phases.

 

[mongo]

Unless we're talking about feeding an onboard charger, it's DC & we don't need no stinking phases.

Oh, but we are talking about on-board chargers. The image shows 2 of them (copy pasted from the S, or real, who knows?).

 

[LCR1]

If you're basing the average speed on assumed illegal behavior by truckers... well... I don't know what to say. They get in big trouble when they get caught. You can lose your CDL for speeding.

Yes, because no one speeds.... And not using the average speed of actual traffic is retarded. Well the posted speed is 65mph so the average commute in rush hour is 20 minutes, because the posted speed is 65 it doesn't matter how fast you're actually going. The inverse is also true, when traffic is going 75 you don't say the average speed of traffic is 65 simply because that's the speed limit, no traffic is averaging 75 that's the average speed.

No one is losing their license because they were caught speeding. A CDL works exactly like a regular license, I get caught speeding I pay the fine and go about my business, the only difference is I can't take something like defensive driving and a medical exam is required. Again, perhaps you should get out more.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

East coast trucks certainly exceed 65mph by a bit and I've seen them up to 75 or more, but that's nowhere near the average. 62-66 sounds about right for the average top speed, so 60 for the true average would likely be high considering general congestion from Rhode Island all the way to Florida. Of course, if I'm a midwest trucker I'm going hundreds of miles at 68 or more without letting up.

I think we can probably just let it drop. Flying cars will be out before you guys lock it down.

 

[spottyq]

Oh, but we are talking about on-board chargers. The image shows 2 of them (copy pasted from the S, or real, who knows?).

I wonder what is the use case for these chargers.

I originally thought that there were not supposed to be an on-board charger, that all charging would be DC. Or maybe a small, 1 to 10kW "charger" to "run climate control" while idle and not really charge the battery. Visibly, I was wrong. And since they put 2 chargers, it means they are really serious about it, so high power. How high ?

Overnight charging ? 800kWh / 14h = 60kW. That's a lot.
Or, the other way around: starting from the plug (IEC_60309) amperage limits :
240V*3* 63A = 45kW => 18h
240V*3*125A = 90kW => 9h

In that wikipedia page, it is said that a black plug exist, with higher voltage. I've never seen them, no idea how common they are. (500-690V, instead of the standard 480V I picked.)

9h is fine for night charging. But clearly, you can't buy a Tesla Semi if you can't invest in the infrastructure to charge it.

[Edit:] I assumed an 800kWh battery. Adjust if needed.