Tesla Semi

[Intl Professor]

I've avoided Monty Python all my life and thanks to the Layden Swallow bit, or whatever it was, now I'm hooked. But there's no time left at my age. A whole life wasted, elder abuse, I say, elder abuse...child abuse? But I repeat myself again.

This thread is unraveling and jhm called it awhile back.

 

[LCR1]

Today, for the first time that I noticed, I noticed a semi with a liquid chemical trailer that had wide tires instead of duals. Until the reveal, I had no idea such things existed, so I guess I never looked for them.

There's a lot of give and take with running super singles. Less weight for more capacity, better mpg. The wheels are aluminum and cost more, repair costs are a lot higher with them. If you get a blow out you're stuck. You see a lot of liquid carriers run them

 

[jhm]

I agree, and also it's a simple spreadsheet calculation; what's the opportunity cost of putting down $200k for three years (at 10% that is $60k), versus getting the vehicle earlier and saving $30k (guessing) per year for a few years?

Good idea. I think their may be a PR benefit to early adopters. Corporations are able to value PR in advertising dollars that would need to be spent to generate an equivalent amount of brand awareness. (Tesla lives on this principle.) Think about how much PepsiCo or AB spend on advertising each year. Getting "free" press coverage showing off Tesla Semis with Bud or Pepsi on the side door is worth an awful lot to these companies. The Founders series will capture most of the novelty. So the PR value falls off after that. So sure they my pay an extra $80k per truck counting both price difference and cost of capital on deposit, but it can generate ten-fold return on effective advertising spend.

 

[mongo]

Could Tesla use the deposits to buy it's own stock?

 

[dc_h]

Could Tesla use the deposits to buy it's own stock?

Yes, but no. They need more money for plants and service centers and charging stations and R&D...

 

[scaesare]

They show a photo of a guy hand-soldering a contact to a cell, and think that this can beat Tesla to the market? Maybe get a couple of early deliveries in, but I don't think they can do volume for some years yet.

But he's got a really nice wooden block he's drilled a hole in to hold his cell!

 

[Reciprocity]

I've avoided Monty Python all my life and thanks to the Layden Swallow bit, or whatever it was, now I'm hooked. But there's no time left at my age. A whole life wasted, elder abuse, I say, elder abuse...child abuse? But I repeat myself again.

This thread is unraveling and jhm called it awhile back.

Oh you are in for an absolute joy. I have never laughed so hard in my life. My face hurt from laughing so much. But I was 15 then. Still, nothing had every made me laugh that hard since.

 

[SteveG3]

Edit: it’s up to a $75K incentive, apparently rebating 60% of the incremental cost vs. a diesel truck per Reuters. So a very large incentive, but not completely off the charts.

Looks like a $75K (Canadian dollar) incentive for electric trucks in Ontario is coming. Tesla semi becomes tremendously compelling there.

Ontario to introduce rebates to boost electric truck demand


Very good chance Ontario, sort of becomes the Norway of Tesla semi : )

 

[mongo]

Looks like a $75K (Canadian dollar) incentive for electric trucks in Ontario is coming. Tesla semi becomes tremendously compelling there.

Ontario to introduce rebates to boost electric truck demand

"The program will offer buyers rebates of up to 60 percent of the incremental purchase cost of an electric truck, compared with an equivalent diesel vehicle, up to a cap of C$75,000 per vehicle, according to documents seen by Reuters."

How will they set the comparison?
Tesla 180k, standard 80k, -> rebate of 60k, even better savings from day one.
Will this push people toward Founder's Edition? Only 8k more (USD) after rebate.

 

[Reciprocity]

Could Tesla use the deposits to buy it's own stock?

yes, because its cash and a liability, basically an interest free loan. But as @dc_h said, they shouldnt because they need as much money as possible for expansion of production and products. Dont expect dividends or stock buybacks while Elon is alive.

Edit: Having stated that, Tesla could and should eat its own dog food. Meaning they can buy tons of solar, storage, semi's and modified S/X for rangers.

 

[SteveG3]

"The program will offer buyers rebates of up to 60 percent of the incremental purchase cost of an electric truck, compared with an equivalent diesel vehicle, up to a cap of C$75,000 per vehicle, according to documents seen by Reuters."

How will they set the comparison?
Tesla 180k, standard 80k, -> rebate of 60k, even better savings from day one.
Will this push people toward Founder's Edition? Only 8k more (USD) after rebate.

Reuters article indicated the announcement would be today, so, we may well get some clarification on how the comparison works.

 

[jhm]

"The program will offer buyers rebates of up to 60 percent of the incremental purchase cost of an electric truck, compared with an equivalent diesel vehicle, up to a cap of C$75,000 per vehicle, according to documents seen by Reuters."

How will they set the comparison?
Tesla 180k, standard 80k, -> rebate of 60k, even better savings from day one.
Will this push people toward Founder's Edition? Only 8k more (USD) after rebate.

Does the fully ladened comparable diesel have to go 0 to 60 mph in 20 seconds too? Might have to pay a performance surtax in that case.

 

[mongo]

yes, because its cash and a liability, basically an interest free loan. But as @dc_h said, they shouldnt because they need as much money as possible for expansion of production and products. Dont expect dividends or stock buybacks while Elon is alive.

Edit: Having stated that, Tesla could and should eat its own dog food. Meaning they can buy tons of solar, storage, semi's and modified S/X for rangers.

I was thinking purely from an income point of view. If semi does not come out for 2 years, and the bottom of the cash barrel is not needed, AND one expects stock price to go up, then turning deposits into stock would generate revenue.
Wild far-fetched case: here is your Founder's truck/ Roadster... and here is your deposit back, thanks for believing in us (would not happen for the same reasons that buybacks would not. But I can see the potential for dividends as a thank you (in the event they are constrained in terms of growth (perhaps dividends in the form of product credits?)))

 

[neroden]

I've avoided Monty Python all my life and thanks to the Layden Swallow bit, or whatever it was, now I'm hooked. But there's no time left at my age. A whole life wasted, elder abuse, I say, elder abuse...child abuse? But I repeat myself again.

This thread is unraveling and jhm called it awhile back.

Go get a copy of Life of Brian and watch it. ASAP! Best movie ever made about religion... It is actually amazingly accurate on a very deep level.

 

[ggr]

Go get a copy of Life of Brian and watch it. ASAP! Best movie ever made about religion... It is actually amazingly accurate on a very deep level.

Despite agreeing , as junior moderator I caution not to go down either of the Monty Python or religion ratholes.

 

[Lessmog]

Despite agreeing , as junior moderator I caution not to go down either of the Monty Python or religion ratholes.

BUT whatabout the Lewis Carroll rabbit hole then?

 

[MitchMitch]

Despite agreeing , as junior moderator I caution not to go down either of the Monty Python or religion ratholes.

Wait, Monty Python ISN’T a religion?

 

[RobStark]

Ontario to introduce rebates to boost electric truck demand


Very good chance Ontario, sort of becomes the Norway of Tesla semi : )

Ontario is having elections this June. Polls show Conservatives slightly ahead or significantly ahead. Conservatives have promised to end all BEV incentives. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[neroden]

Good grief, Ontario, you voted for Tories once already and you got the crack-smoking Mayor Rob Ford. Haven't you learned?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Upon further consideration of Model 3 vs. Semi pricing, I now think I'm either:

1. Overestimating Semi battery sizes at 600 kWh and 1MWh (WAG using the "< 2 kWh/mi" figure); or
2. Underestimating Semi gross margin at 25% once in volume production; or
3. Both.

With my previous assumptions, it does not make sense for Tesla to allocate batteries to Semi instead of further ramping Model 3 production.

I would appreciate it if someone could help me understand where my logic is falling short.