PatFor
Member
Putting maintenance issues aside. What about the tech changes? I am seriously considering a lease because the new features will render my MS obsolete in 3 years let alone 8.
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Well, an 8 year old model S will be less obsolete than any other 8 year old car - it's pretty much state of the art now, and Tesla will continue to provide updates.
So what I gather from this thread is that prices for model S repair parts wont come down in 8 years, but prices for entire working cars will.
If you can pick up a whole running car for 12-15k, then you won't be paying 20k for a battery pack, or 4k for a replacement 17" screen.
If you can pick up a whole running car for 12-15k, then you won't be paying 20k for a battery pack, or 4k for a replacement 17" screen.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Stranger things have happened, relatively speaking. One thing's probable 8 years hence - more parts cars will be available.
I'll be making a killing buying used model S's and parting them out then.
Inefficiencies like that don't last long.
Inefficiencies like that don't last long.
For a long time, I've used a crude "2% per month" depreciation estimate - which has proven to be pretty accurate. On the average, our cars have lost about 21.5% of their value in each year - and this has been true for our Toyota and Lexus cars, and appears to be true with my early P85 (VIN 3xxx). And the last time I checked kbb.com - it appears our Model S is tracking the same depreciation model.
After 8 years, a $100K P85 would be worth around $14K. At that time, Tesla's 8 year unlimited mile warranty on the battery pack and motor will have expired. However, compared to an ICE - the Model S should be in much better shape, with fewer moving parts.
After 8 years, a $100K P85 would be worth around $14K. At that time, Tesla's 8 year unlimited mile warranty on the battery pack and motor will have expired. However, compared to an ICE - the Model S should be in much better shape, with fewer moving parts.
Xenoilphobe
Well-Known Member
ChadS
Last tank of gas: March 2009
I just sold my Roadster at 7 years old and 57,000 miles for very nearly half what I paid for it.
True they are supply limited, but also sell to a far smaller market, are missing many features and are more expensive to fix.
That is really good resale value.
In 2012 I sold a 10-year-old RAV4-EV for well over half of what the original owner paid despite brand-new LEAFs being easily available at the time.
True they are supply limited, but also sell to a far smaller market, are missing many features and are more expensive to fix.
That is really good resale value.
In 2012 I sold a 10-year-old RAV4-EV for well over half of what the original owner paid despite brand-new LEAFs being easily available at the time.
According to KBB, the value of a 2008 Mercedes Benz S550 is $17,000 for private sale. I use that as a comp for a highly respected, 8 year old car that was priced new around $100k (optioned up). In my experience, KBB projections are usually optimistic (high).
So, what's the fuss? If an 8 year old S is worth ~$20k on the market, that's right on line with every other ultra-luxury-sport car out there.
I suspect that, for many participants on this forum, this is their first car in that price range (was for me, anyway). So we are not used to this % depreciation. Goes with the territory, get used to it!
Personally, if mine is still in good condition at that point, it will be worth more to me than $20k, and I'll keep driving it as long as I can. Jury is out whether I'd refresh battery. If Tesla offered a new, larger capacity battery for ~10k with a reasonable (5?) year warranty, I'd probably bite... maybe extending my car's useful life to 15-20 years.
So, what's the fuss? If an 8 year old S is worth ~$20k on the market, that's right on line with every other ultra-luxury-sport car out there.
I suspect that, for many participants on this forum, this is their first car in that price range (was for me, anyway). So we are not used to this % depreciation. Goes with the territory, get used to it!
Personally, if mine is still in good condition at that point, it will be worth more to me than $20k, and I'll keep driving it as long as I can. Jury is out whether I'd refresh battery. If Tesla offered a new, larger capacity battery for ~10k with a reasonable (5?) year warranty, I'd probably bite... maybe extending my car's useful life to 15-20 years.
I like my Model S85; however, I am worried. I paid 92K in 2013 Aug and after the tax break, let us say I paid 84K. I drove 16,000 miles in 3 years and is in great condition. It appears that it is now worth less than 55K. Did I save any by switching to electric? If there is such a hype about electric cars in general and Tesla in particular, why does it depreciate so fast and so much? Is it the same rate of depreciation for other high performance high value cars? Considering battery life of 8-10 years, I am concerned. Should I just sell and buy a gas car?
Have you looked at the depreciation rates of other ~$100k cars?
Most of them depreciate faster than Tesla cars have so far.
What makes you think the battery life is 8-10 years?
The Tesla warranty is 8 years, so you don't have to worry before that, but I so no reason to expect the battery pack to die in ten years - or in twenty years. If it does, it'll most likely be fairly easy and relatively cheap to repair.
Any "comparable" gas car I can name is worse across the board - worse to drive, more depreciation, less reliable, worse for the planet. But as always, it's your money, so it's your choice.
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Did you deduct your car expenses from taxes? (not best point because you can do that with any car)
Did you save on gas?
You lost $29,000... in roughly 37 months.. Honestly I doubt your car is worth $55,000... if it was you could have great rate of deprecation.. Paying less than $1,000/mo for a $100K car?
Doctor not business person I am assuming?
Read some of my posts... I bash Tesla more than most on here as far as no lease options and unpredictable deprecation but have you even done the math? You are in a great situation if you can get even close to $55K
An ICE car with similar cost wouls be worth similar after 3 years.
True you didn't save much in operating cost due to the low mileage.
thegruf
Active Member
If the drivertrain/battery is warranted for 8yrs, you can basically reckon that Tesla believe it is good for at least 50% more than that if not double, otherwise the warranty claims would be horrible for Tesla (let's hope not!).
More likely I think you will be looking at a decent car with negligible running costs, which is of far greater importance to this category of purchasers. However like any older premuim vehicle if it does go wrong it's not likely to be cheap.
It is also mostly aluminium so no rust.
I can't see a decent condition MS getting below $20K unless reliability tanks, I think they would be snapped up at that price, and this in turn will prop up the prices of newer cars
More likely I think you will be looking at a decent car with negligible running costs, which is of far greater importance to this category of purchasers. However like any older premuim vehicle if it does go wrong it's not likely to be cheap.
It is also mostly aluminium so no rust.
I can't see a decent condition MS getting below $20K unless reliability tanks, I think they would be snapped up at that price, and this in turn will prop up the prices of newer cars
According to KBB a 2013 Mercedes S-550 with 75k miles and in SoCal will have a trade in value of $32,214
A 2013 P85 RWD with same mileage has trade in value of $42,000
I think the scarcity of EVs, even after the Model 3 comes out, will put a better floor on the Model S vs. other ICE.
A 2013 P85 RWD with same mileage has trade in value of $42,000
I think the scarcity of EVs, even after the Model 3 comes out, will put a better floor on the Model S vs. other ICE.
Jeff4155
Member
I think all vehicles in that price bracket will loose a lot over a short period, that is just part of purchasing a $100k vehicle, but looking at it from someones perspective of purchasing an 8 year old vehicle I do think that a Tesla would be worth a lot more than say a Mercedes just because of the lack of moving parts.
It's not clear where Tesla's design lives are given that some people have been thru multiple drive units, mostly for noise (the worst I can remember so far is one guy on his 8th DU). Some have failed completely but where that's been happening has been all over the map, I've seen: some at the beginning, some in the middle somewhere. There seemed to be a rash of either front or rear DU dying when the D models came out.
I keep calling out automotive reliability and durability testing in other threads and yet nobody contributes and it seems like nobody cares.
Besides what you mention, there the door handles which IIRC are $1300/pop to replace. Thankfully, Tesla got rid of those on models after the S.
But given those handles, the multiple DU replacements and the problems w/both the front doors and falcon wing doors on the Model X, one has to wonder what sort of long-term durability testing really does and what their criteria are for passing their internal tests. It seems rather likely that odds of all 4 doors on a given Model X passing an 84K cycle test is pretty low, given what we've seen.
I doubt it. See above.
Lifespan/Operating costs has examples of very long-lived Priuses. I don't think we seen any cases of Model S w/mileage that high that hasn't had its DU replaced at least once. (Yeah yeah, there are a few guys who claim high mileage and no DU replacement, but I sometimes do wonder about their claim and about their hearing or tolerance for DU noise...)
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Yeah, except numerous folks here have been thru multiple drive units.
As for "the tranny, the increasingly complex emissions stuff", seems like automatic transmissions at least on reliable Japanese brands tend to last a lot longer than DUs. It is not often I hear of transmissions needing replacement for any reason on Toyotas, Hondas, or Subarus by say the 90K mile mark. As for emissions stuff, FWIW, my hybrid ICEV and that of my mother's are AT-PZEV, so they're mandated to have a 15 year/150K mile emissions warranty (https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/warranty.pdf).
Also see Lifespan/Operating costs for my example of long-lived Priuses.
BTW, here are some examples (I have MANY more) of people having many DU replacements and some early failures:
Drive Unit Replacement Poll
Drive unit replacement - getting better?
New Model S Drive Unit Replaced at 734 Miles
Dual engine shut down on freeway. Anyone else?
Drive Unit Failed - Dashcam video
Clunks, Drones and Milling sounds: Just had a drive unit fail
