Will Tesla be able to deliver FSD with HW3.0 and current Model 3 sensor suite, ever?

[LionXng]

"Full Self-Driving Capability

• Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
• Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
• Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
• Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
• Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: assisted stops at traffic controlled intersections.

Coming later this year:

• Autosteer on city streets."

FSD is IMO clearly spelled out as x,y and soon to be z. The webpage doesn't say "a fully automated car that will drive for you at all times". Therefor FSD is here already and always has been. If you read the name of the upgrade and nothing else and made assumptions that's on you.

I don't think you will ever see 100% fully automated cars, and I prefer it that way. What is here now is pretty remarkable and they are building in new features all the time. The robotaxi idea is neat but I'm not really interested. I think the car as a mini load balancing power station idea is a lot better and will actually have a massive effect on the globe.

 

[Ofarlig]

I don’t even care about level 5, that is so far away from being legal to use fully to have any idea of current hardware is enough. My hope is we get legal to use level 3 on highways within a few years, which will make longer distance travel and commutes way better since I could watch Netflix or work while doing it. That is enough to amaze me for years after really.

To me it doesn’t matter when the feature is there, it matters when Tesla proved that the tail of 9s is long enough for lawmakers to approve it for use and take the responsibility away from the driver.

The current camera suite doesn’t seem to be enough to even get a license over here, we need to be able to safely back around a corner against traffic on low speed streets as part of our driving test. The cameras does not have the right angle for that in all situations with bushes, parked cars and stuff.

 

[drtimhill]

A car is no different to any other consumer device - if something advertised doesn’t work you get refund

FSD is an option .. its the option that might or might not work. You aren't going to get the purchase price of the car back. What have you been smoking?

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

People seem to think that Tesla’s fallback of ‘coming soon’ means that it’s an absolute out for them
“We meant ‘soon’ on a geological timescale”...
Don’t know until it’s tested in court (& not an out of court settlement)

FYI, here’s a legal case where Tesla had to refund the owner not only the entire purchase price of the car but additional costs also:
Yellow Screen border, poor quality & workmanship, and poor customer service -- Arbitration

And as for the ‘0 miles’ statement made earlier, this car had 20,000 miles of ‘benefit‘, yet the owner was still fully reimbursed
@Knightshade @focher

 

[focher]

People seem to think that Tesla’s fallback of ‘coming soon’ means that it’s an absolute out for them
“We meant ‘soon’ on a geological timescale”...
Don’t know until it’s tested in court (& not an out of court settlement)

FYI, here’s a legal case where Tesla had to refund the owner not only the entire purchase price of the car but additional costs also:
Yellow Screen border, poor quality & workmanship, and poor customer service -- Arbitration

And as for the ‘0 miles’ statement made earlier, this car had 20,000 miles of ‘benefit‘, yet the owner was still fully reimbursed
@Knightshade @focher

You literally cite an actual lemon case that an owner pursued through arbitration as your evidence. The facts could not be more different. About that the only thing in common was that it involved Tesla.

I think you’ve already been given the best advice. Go find an attorney to take the FSD case. I mean, you’ll be able to you if you’re gonna pay their hourly rate out of pocket. Arguing you were induced to buy the car based on future FSD potential functionality will be worthwhile to watch play out.

Or, consider how many attorneys make their money from class action cases yet none have popped up yet. Curious, that is. Or not.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

You literally cite an actual lemon case that an owner pursued through arbitration as your evidence. The facts could not be more different. About that the only thing in common was that it involved Tesla.

I think you’ve already been given the best advice. Go find an attorney to take the FSD case. I mean, you’ll be able to you if you’re gonna pay their hourly rate out of pocket. Arguing you were induced to buy the car based on future FSD potential functionality will be worthwhile to watch play out.

Or, consider how many attorneys make their money from class action cases yet none have popped up yet. Curious, that is. Or not.

You’ve missed the point of the post. It’s to highlight issues & concepts
Also I have no need to pursue legal action. The prior discussions were about conceptualising a ‘what if’ scenario

 

[RobRain]

I just wonder why trains, especially freight trains, are not yet autonomous? I think that would be the first step to validate FSD.

Trains are running on tracks, they cannot change lane by them self, and use section areas which are the ultimate geo-fence model.

List of automated train systems - Wikipedia

 

[Atari2600]

FSD is IMO clearly spelled out as x,y and soon to be z. The webpage doesn't say "a fully automated car that will drive for you at all times". Therefor FSD is here already and always has been. If you read the name of the upgrade and nothing else and made assumptions that's on you.

Yes the web page did spell it out but two versions of FSD were sold. For me the description for FSD was very specific in a single sentence.

In the future, Model 3 will be capable of conducting trips with no action required from the person in the driver’s seat.

Please view the screen shot here:
View attachment 509056

 

[CertLive]

"Full Self-Driving Capability

• Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
• Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
• Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
• Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
• Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: assisted stops at traffic controlled intersections.

Coming later this year:

• Autosteer on city streets."

FSD is IMO clearly spelled out as x,y and soon to be z. The webpage doesn't say "a fully automated car that will drive for you at all times". Therefor FSD is here already and always has been. If you read the name of the upgrade and nothing else and made assumptions that's on you.

I don't think you will ever see 100% fully automated cars, and I prefer it that way. What is here now is pretty remarkable and they are building in new features all the time. The robotaxi idea is neat but I'm not really interested. I think the car as a mini load balancing power station idea is a lot better and will actually have a massive effect on the globe.

I am glad to see this debate as it is a worthy one along the lines of what the buyers are to expect from a product that they buy. The above first has the wording changed for people buying over time? What does Elon Musk state it can and will be able to do as CEO. Also for the term FSD Full Self Driving not to be watered down too much. Yes FSD is being built in components on a Tesla. The HW 3.0 Computer inside my model 3 is called full self driving so expect it. So I would say I am expecting my car to achieve this and bought into it to do so.

Now here is the other thing. I also expected to get a new car like as advertised. No panel gaps, misaligned doors, bad glass and my list goes on not to repeat but the expectation is to get a car like the website shows as advertised. Because there is no counter warning otherwise. No Disclaimer to say the car might not arrive in the same condition as the one you see here. These are also reasonable expectations as with the self driving capability. How much would you pay for the model 3 if it only had a 30% chance of full self driving in the next 5 years and arriving with various manufacturing defects? To be frank Tesla will get nowhere unless we buy but there is a case for compensation here. There has to be realistic expectations of getting a new condition self driving car as a consumer. This is as advertised on many fronts from Tesla's Top.

 

[Knightshade]

I am glad to see this debate as it is a worthy one along the lines of what the buyers are to expect from a product that they buy. The above first has the wording changed for people buying over time? What does Elon Musk state it can and will be able to do as CEO. Also for the term FSD Full Self Driving not to be watered down too much. Yes FSD is being built in components on a Tesla. The HW 3.0 Computer inside my model 3 is called full self driving so expect it. So I would say I am expecting my car to achieve this and bought into it to do so.

"full self driving" has no inherent legal meaning.

Calling a blender a "vitamix" doesn't require it to magically add vitamins for you.

Calling it a sham-wow doesn't mean you get a full refund years later if it doesn't make you say wow.



FSD is defined by the company selling the package named FSD.

Pre-March-2019 buyers were sold a specific package.

Post-March-2019 buyers were sold a different, far less comprehensive in offering, package.

I've posted the specific comparisons and screen shots a number of times at this point showing this so won't bother repeating them.

Now here is the other thing. I also expected to get a new car like as advertised. No panel gaps, misaligned doors, bad glass and my list goes on not to repeat but the expectation is to get a car like the website shows as advertised

Can you show me where on the website the specific allowable amount of panel gap is listed?

Of course you can't.


Can you show me where the degree of door alignment spec is on the website? Again, no you can't.

Literally nothing you just cited is "advertised" on the website.


If you found the car unacceptable at delivery, you should not have accepted it. I certainly would not have.

. Because there is no counter warning otherwise. No Disclaimer to say the car might not arrive in the same condition as the one you see here.

Not only do you have the option to reject the delivered car and get a different new one- you have the option to return the one you took anyway within 7 days- which is clearly on the website.

Return Policy

 

[Knightshade]

You’ve missed the point of the post. It’s to highlight issues & concepts

And your concept of how any of this works is 100% wrong.

Then you double down by having already been caught using the term lemon incorrectly- claiming you "knew" what it "really" meant... and then INCORRECTLY CITING A LEMON LAW CASE to again, incorrectly, support your failed argument.


Maybe quit while you're behind?

FSD is IMO clearly spelled out as x,y and soon to be z. The webpage doesn't say "a fully automated car that will drive for you at all times"

Ah, but pre-march-2019, it did say that.

So Tesla has significantly greater liability to those buyers if it can't deliver that (well, just about- again the wordings been posted, but it's at minimum a level 4 self driving system they promised to those folks)

I highly doubt that Tesla will admit that pre-March FSD is different from post-March FSD. Such admission will likely enable even more lawsuits, just because of such an admission (if it actually happens, of course).

Why would they need to "admit" anything? It's in writing from when either person purchased the option.

It's an established fact.

 

[SergeyUser]

@Knightshade, in your opinion, should FSD feature, once “feature complete” as promised last year by Elon Musk, be capable of crossing intersections and making turns on them (especially left and unprotected), for post-March 2019 FSD buyers? Simple Yes or No question.

 

[vickh]

Trains are not automatous because it is expensive to implement, and there is significant push back by the train trade unions to not automate away jobs.

Good point, think of all the push back by the truckers

 

[Knightshade]

@Knightshade, in your opinion, should FSD feature, once “feature complete” as promised last year by Elon Musk, be capable of crossing intersections and making turns on them (especially left and unprotected), for post-March 2019 FSD buyers? Simple Yes or No question.

That's more than a yes or no question though, because there's two different post-march promises

March 19 through April 20? Yes.

Post April 20 when they changed it just "autosteer"? Maybe. The description is just autosteer on city streets, so crossing intersections yes, turns no, but I think there's some comment from the Q1 call that might have confirmed turning is part of it.


In BOTH cases though- there's no promise of it doing so higher than level 2.... (unlike the pre march 2019 promise of L4)

 

[CertLive]

"full self driving" has no inherent legal meaning.

Calling a blender a "vitamix" doesn't require it to magically add vitamins for you.

Calling it a sham-wow doesn't mean you get a full refund years later if it doesn't make you say wow.



FSD is defined by the company selling the package named FSD.

Pre-March-2019 buyers were sold a specific package.

Post-March-2019 buyers were sold a different, far less comprehensive in offering, package.

I've posted the specific comparisons and screen shots a number of times at this point showing this so won't bother repeating them.





Can you show me where on the website the specific allowable amount of panel gap is listed?

Of course you can't.


Can you show me where the degree of door alignment spec is on the website? Again, no you can't.

Literally nothing you just cited is "advertised" on the website.


If you found the car unacceptable at delivery, you should not have accepted it. I certainly would not have.




Not only do you have the option to reject the delivered car and get a different new one- you have the option to return the one you took anyway within 7 days- which is clearly on the website.

Return Policy

Yes but did you realise it takes a full month to get the car looked at and even then after that amount of time they are not prepared to deal with the issues you have to wait weeks for a ranger and when they cant fix it all its another month+ for an appointment. This counters the apparent we will get these sorted quickly at point of sale when you raise the paint, scratches, seals etc. Of course you want a car like listed on the website they look great. How the hell can you justify a door and boot not lined up with the body? The cars on show do not have that. I do not accept the watering down of the meaning of full self driving. Lets see if the city streets works first then better debate if the FSD is going to happen this next decade. I want to see it on London streets survive an hour, worth it then.

So explain why it is now a far less comprehensive offering? Hardware 3.0 is a full self driving computer so this matches up with industry level 5 autonomy. Maybe another retro fit is needed and that I have no doubt it can be done because hardware 2 to 3 is being realised which is commend Tesla for not leaving people behind.

April 22nd 2019 Elon Musk said “We will have more than one million robotaxis on the road,” Musk said. “A year from now, we’ll have over a million cars with full self-driving, software... everything.”

How is that less comprehensive? "At Tesla’s Q3 2019 earnings call, Musk said that this milestone would likely be reached by the end of 2019, and in response to a Twitter query about the new deadline, Musk responded: “Soon”.”"

Once made live, it will mean that, along with other components mentioned above, Full Self Driving (FSD) will be “feature complete”.

So now its for the end of 2020 as you expect a Tesla should be able to handle the city streets of every major market it is sold in otherwise this needs to be a little more specific in its nature just like other things about EV,s. We hope! I hope and if we scratch last years comments off then it will not be 2025 like other manufacturers have predicted it will indeed be one of the reasons I bought a model 3 is for this feature.

 

[CertLive]

That's more than a yes or no question though, because there's two different post-march promises

March 19 through April 20? Yes.

Post April 20 when they changed it just "autosteer"? Maybe. The description is just autosteer on city streets, so crossing intersections yes, turns no, but I think there's some comment from the Q1 call that might have confirmed turning is part of it.


In BOTH cases though- there's no promise of it doing so higher than level 2.... (unlike the pre march 2019 promise of L4)

This is the best explanation I have seen so far. You see that is the unfair part the gradual watering down of the systems capabilities if FSD matters to you. I am sure it was a big selling point for some. I was sure city street driving was L3 with environmental detection capabilities and the model 3 is showing big signs of doing that already.

 

[SergeyUser]

That's more than a yes or no question though, because there's two different post-march promises

March 19 through April 20? Yes.

Post April 20 when they changed it just "autosteer"? Maybe. The description is just autosteer on city streets, so crossing intersections yes, turns no, but I think there's some comment from the Q1 call that might have confirmed turning is part of it.


In BOTH cases though- there's no promise of it doing so higher than level 2.... (unlike the pre march 2019 promise of L4)

Interesting. If Tesla do deliver, I don't think it will deliver something just to earlier buyers. It will not make any sense for Tesla, except to anger lots of people. However, assuming they will not deliver and someone will sue Tesla, then yes, I can imagine Tesla can use the argument and only refund/compensate earlier owners or at least compensate them to a bigger extent because of the differences in how FSD promise was made.

 

[Knightshade]

Yes but did you realise it takes a full month to get the car looked at and even then after that amount of time they are not prepared to deal with the issues you have to wait weeks for a ranger and when they cant fix it all its another month+ for an appointment.

I don't personally know the service waits for the UK.

But again I'd have simply rejected delivery of the car if it had all the issues you describe, and let them get me a better one to start with.

So explain why it is now a far less comprehensive offering?

Easy.

They aren't sure they can deliver what the promised originally- so they changed what the package they were selling was promising.

Anybody who bought the new package is promised far less- therefore it'll be easier for them to deliver to those people.

And they stop ADDING new people to the group they will likely never be able to deliver what was promised (the pre-march-19 buyers)

Hardware 3.0 is a full self driving computer so this matches up with industry level 5 autonomy.

No it doesn't.

It means a computer to enable what tesla calls full self driving.

Which is absolutely not level 5.

Not even for the Pre-march-19 folks (who were promised L4 by a literal reading)

Maybe another retro fit is needed and that I have no doubt it can be done because hardware 2 to 3 is being realised which is commend Tesla for not leaving people behind.

Another computer upgrade absolutely could be done.

But if it turns out they need to add more sensors, more radar, or anything like that, that might range from anywhere to difficult/expensive, to flat out impractical (like if they have to disassemble the car and run whole new wiring harnesses, replace external body panels, etc)

April 22nd 2019 Elon Musk said “We will have more than one million robotaxis on the road,” Musk said. “A year from now, we’ll have over a million cars with full self-driving, software... everything.”

How is that less comprehensive? "At Tesla’s Q3 2019 earnings call, Musk said that this milestone would likely be reached by the end of 2019, and in response to a Twitter query about the new deadline, Musk responded: “Soon”.”"

Yes, but he obviously lied. (or more generously, he was overly optimistic in what he hoped they could do... he does that a lot)

Notice that was an investor meeting- forward looking statements to investors are not guarantees (and were not in the terms of sale when you bought FSD).

Remember Musk also promised a coast to coast FSD drive by end of 2017.

And by end of 2018.

And we're still waiting here in 2020.

Interesting. If Tesla do deliver, I don't think it will deliver something just to earlier buyers. It will not make any sense for Tesla, except to anger lots of people. However, assuming they will not deliver and someone will sue Tesla, then yes, I can imagine Tesla can use the argument and only refund/compensate earlier owners or at least compensate them to a bigger extent because of the differences in how FSD promise was made.

FWIW If Tesla were able to deliver L4 to the original FSD buyers, yes I 100% expect later FSD buyers would get it too.


The reason they dialed back the promises was just as you say, to reduce how much they owe back to how many folks when they can't deliver L4.

 

[SergeyUser]

Just checked the latest Tesla official FSD demo video from April 22nd, 2019:

.

It clearly shows the car making turns at intersections. So I guess there is some intent to achieve at least that. Again, still believe this will just not happen with current sensor suite and HW3.0 with USA-wide release (not some specific geofenced area(s) like Waymo in AZ, etc).

 

[Knightshade]

Just checked the latest Tesla official FSD demo video from April 22nd, 2019:

.

It clearly shows the car making turns at intersections. So I guess there is some intent to achieve at least that. Again, still believe this will just not happen with current sensor suite and HW3.0 with USA-wide release (not some specific geofenced area(s) like Waymo in AZ, etc).

Again- that's from the INVESTOR day showing a forward-looking statement of what they HOPE to put on consumer cars some time in the future.

Nobody (I don't think anyway) doubts they WANT to deliver higher than L2 driver aids.


But what is in that video is absolutely not what they are selling to end users today