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2015 Q2 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call

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Jerome was unceremoniously removed from his position as Senior VP of Sales & Service after sales in China faltered, which wasn't really his fault. Elon blamed slow China sales on poor communications regarding charging options, and called his own people in China "morons" or a similar word. Unfortunately, Tesla's problems in China had little to do with charging confusion and much more to do with the internal economics and politics of the country, as well as domestic competition from other EVs. The sales of competing EVs actually increased while Tesla's dropped. Tesla's Model S is not perceived as a luxury mark in China, and at its luxury price point it lacks many of the amenities wealthy Chinese look for in a car. It was at that time that Musk said he would appoint a regional VP of Sales for each region that would report directly to him.

Musk didn't move Jerome to US Region Sales, which would have been the obvious move, but instead he seemed to marginalized Jerome into a customer satisfaction and delivery role. I can only speculate that Jerome may not have been happy with that. Musk went out of his way, at the time, to say that this was not a demotion. In my opinion, if you have to say it, then it really is. In hindsight, I think it was. Despite Musk saying Jerome would be taking over a customer sat role, that never happened and there appears to be nobody at the company currently tasked with such a role. It has been more than six months, I believe, since Elon made these announcements. Jerome used to be listed as part of the management team on Tesla's web site, but there is no mention of him now.

I would like nothing more than to be wrong, but I know what my gut is telling me and I know how companies like this operate. When Apple got rid of Scott Forstall, the VP of IOS development, they spun it to Forstall staying on in a "consultant" capacity to CEO Tim Cook for several months after his departure was announced. I've seen parallels at startup companies where I've worked in the past. This sounds eerily similar.

I would like nothing more than to be wrong. Believe me.

I think all of us early Model S owners have an extremely high regard for Jerome and I agree that it would be a great loss for the company if he left. I just don't think we should treat speculation as fact and then become indignant over it. No one outside of Tesla knows the full details and there are plenty of other reasons for Jerome to take a leave.
 
I TEM 5.OTHER INFORMATION
On August 4, 2015, Jerome Guillen, our Vice President, Worldwide Service and Deliveries, notified Tesla that he will be taking a leave of absence until December 31, 2015.
Recently, our Board of Directors reviewed the job responsibilities of our senior management. On August 6, 2015, the Board determined that Mr. Guillen no longer has reporting requirements under Section 16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Section 16). On the same date, the Board also determined that Doug Field, our Vice President, Engineering, has reporting requirements under Section 16.
 
I TEM 5.OTHER INFORMATION
On August 4, 2015, Jerome Guillen, our Vice President, Worldwide Service and Deliveries, notified Tesla that he will be taking a leave of absence until December 31, 2015.
Recently, our Board of Directors reviewed the job responsibilities of our senior management. On August 6, 2015, the Board determined that Mr. Guillen no longer has reporting requirements under Section 16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Section 16). On the same date, the Board also determined that Doug Field, our Vice President, Engineering, has reporting requirements under Section 16.

damn.. one of the few people at tesla that was respected and had credibility. this is not looking good.
 
I don't understand why everyone is panicking like the sky is falling. This last quarterly report really wasn't all that interesting. In fact, Tesla beat their own numbers. Things remain essentially unchanged--Elon just reeled expectations in a bit. Everything else is going as planned. Just relax, folks. The ship is still sailing full speed ahead.
 
I TEM 5.OTHER INFORMATION
On August 4, 2015, Jerome Guillen, our Vice President, Worldwide Service and Deliveries, notified Tesla that he will be taking a leave of absence until December 31, 2015.
Recently, our Board of Directors reviewed the job responsibilities of our senior management. On August 6, 2015, the Board determined that Mr. Guillen no longer has reporting requirements under Section 16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Section 16). On the same date, the Board also determined that Doug Field, our Vice President, Engineering, has reporting requirements under Section 16.

So correct me if I'm wrong but earlier this year Jerome Guillen was demoted (for lack of better word) from VP of Worldwide Sales and Service to VP of Worldwide Service and Deliveries. I took that the sales pace wasn't increasing fast enough and Elon felt someone else would do better in the sales role. But now Jerome takes a "leave of absence" until the end of December. That's a good 5 months. And now he's no longer required to report his stock as an officer. So, is he on the way out?
 
So correct me if I'm wrong but earlier this year Jerome Guillen was demoted (for lack of better word) from VP of Worldwide Sales and Service to VP of Worldwide Service and Deliveries. I took that the sales pace wasn't increasing fast enough and Elon felt someone else would do better in the sales role. But now Jerome takes a "leave of absence" until the end of December. That's a good 5 months. And now he's no longer required to report his stock as an officer. So, is he on the way out?
Well he is probably selling all his stock at least. The thing it seems no one has considered is it may be that Jerome was not enjoying his job and/or life and that is the reason for the sudden changes. I could never imagine working for Elon and my own personality would stay far away from such an intense work environment. Maybe Jerome thought he could handle it and learned he is not made for that kind of work. So, obviously Tesla doesn't want him to just quit and sell all his shares so they demote him and then allow him to take a 'leave' and then next year he will return from leave and 'resign' but they are clearly hoping everyone will have forgotten by then and by then they probably won't have to disclose he left next year.
 
Well he is probably selling all his stock at least. The thing it seems no one has considered is it may be that Jerome was not enjoying his job and/or life and that is the reason for the sudden changes. I could never imagine working for Elon and my own personality would stay far away from such an intense work environment. Maybe Jerome thought he could handle it and learned he is not made for that kind of work. So, obviously Tesla doesn't want him to just quit and sell all his shares so they demote him and then allow him to take a 'leave' and then next year he will return from leave and 'resign' but they are clearly hoping everyone will have forgotten by then and by then they probably won't have to disclose he left next year.

I'm thinking that it's possible he simply burnt out after working so much at the company. Very few people can sustain an Elon-like pace for very long. I have had jobs where I was working 60-70 hours/week, and it is exhausting when commute time is factored in.

I cannot imagine doing this for months or years. After 1 month I felt pretty terrible.
 
I don't understand why everyone is panicking like the sky is falling. This last quarterly report really wasn't all that interesting. In fact, Tesla beat their own numbers. Things remain essentially unchanged--Elon just reeled expectations in a bit. Everything else is going as planned. Just relax, folks. The ship is still sailing full speed ahead.

I felt that the conference call and associated lower in projected delivery does not bode well for the Model X delivery. I know they said the same thing about the Model S, but they were a very low resource company back then and they did indeed take many, many months to ramp.

I personally feel that the MX configurator delay was a very big sign of impending slips in the release date or heavy ramp, though I know very few people agreed with me on that.

That, and I feel that the macro conditions are going sour as well. I'm really hoping for an exit position for myself before September, and will try to buy back in afterwards for many of my shares. Q1 next year I'm definitely expecting amazing things TSLA wise, and possibly mid to late Q4 as well as positive MX press, reviews, and reservations will erase fears of a missed delivery guidance. I wouldn't be surprised to see the total number of MX to be under the 1-1.5k level in 2015.

Personally, my biggest bear fear in the short-term is the fact that MX delays can cause MS delays. I had no idea that aspects of the lines would be combined (figured it'd be one mixed line, and one MS line--not one interdependent line). Again it'll be immaterial after Q4, but I feel the stock may take a big beating as this year finishes up.
 
So correct me if I'm wrong but earlier this year Jerome Guillen was demoted (for lack of better word) from VP of Worldwide Sales and Service to VP of Worldwide Service and Deliveries. I took that the sales pace wasn't increasing fast enough and Elon felt someone else would do better in the sales role. But now Jerome takes a "leave of absence" until the end of December. That's a good 5 months. And now he's no longer required to report his stock as an officer. So, is he on the way out?
Yes he's being pushed out in my opinion. If anyone else read the Elon Musk book they should know Elon is all business and will dismiss people if/when they can't perform to his high standards. While it is sad for us to see another member of senior mgmt go that we all grew to like, it is really best for TSLA and its future success. Many other firms have loyalty to senior mgmt who have grown up with the firm even if they are not performing strongly and I think that is a mistake. I am human and in Elon's shoes I would probably not be able to cut those people unless it was really bad performance very evident. However, Elon is probably a Martian, and as such can do extraordinarily things to succeed in building a business that us humans can't.
 
So correct me if I'm wrong but earlier this year Jerome Guillen was demoted (for lack of better word) from VP of Worldwide Sales and Service to VP of Worldwide Service and Deliveries. I took that the sales pace wasn't increasing fast enough and Elon felt someone else would do better in the sales role. But now Jerome takes a "leave of absence" until the end of December. That's a good 5 months. And now he's no longer required to report his stock as an officer. So, is he on the way out?

If I remember correctly he is french. No he doesn't need to report his stock options as an officer because he's doing a post-sales role (can be considered as non-crucial to decision making of the core business). Yes, he did get demoted but I think that's because Elon & team were realizing they had to have local sales heads and restructured the sales organization. Why they waited so long... I have no idea.

It makes sense that somebody from the engineering team has to report now because it's probably mission critical (to say the least). Jerome is probably taking a leave of absence to clear his head and get back into the post service game. He was answering people's emails directly for crying out loud. Not sure if he is on the way out. I'd be surprised if he is. It also depends on his employment contract. If he's a "french employee" He can take up to a year off with his job spot held -- mandated by Govt. We'll find out soon.
 
However, Elon is probably a Martian, and as such can do extraordinarily things to succeed in building a business that us humans can't.

But Tesla is selling to humans and Elon needs some people as a bridge between himself and the buyers (and also his human employees). I find it quite disturbing how many high profile people with a good reputation (from our point of view) have left Tesla. I do not think that this is a good sign.
 
But Tesla is selling to humans and Elon needs some people as a bridge between himself and the buyers (and also his human employees). I find it quite disturbing how many high profile people with a good reputation (from our point of view) have left Tesla. I do not think that this is a good sign.
But this has been the case with Elon run companies for a long time... I'm sure tesla/Elon could have held onto those early founders who he pushed out a couple years ago, or george Blankenship, or that girl hacker from Apple. Part of the reason tesla will continue to succeed is that it's constantly churning employees to find the best people for key positions... Elon doesn't settle when it comes
to business and I'm glad he doesn't.
 
Starting up production of their second vehicle is risky. Possibly things could go wrong and introduce delays. Possibly all could go well. That's all Elon said. Sounds a perfectly reasonable way to set expectations for this quarter.

There are other items more worrisome in the call's transcript. For example, Model X being perhaps the most difficult car to produce in the world. That sounds terrifying to me. More complexity means more costs, quality issues, and repair difficulty (more expensive repairs), which leads to higher insurance premiums. EVs ought to be relatively simple, dropping all the ICE parts.
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/09/us-teslamotors-cash-insight-idUSKCN0QE0DC20150809



I'm seeing this on multiple sites since it hit Reuters but my gut says it isn't true.

They may make a profit per car but are losing cash due to infrastructure rollout. I wouldn't consider it a fair assignment of value to say that loss is "per car" if it is really "per quarter" or "per year"

If one could assign a dollar value to it, how much would you say Reuters lose in credibility for each such article (or headline; I stopped clicking through)? All in it for the hits, as it were :wink:
 
Agreed. As I said many times in this forum (also disagreed by many folks in this forum). TM's growth rate between 2015 and model 3 production is demand constrained. So there is no surprise to see TM dialed down production rate expection to match demand.

1800 delivery rate in December considering the recent earnings report is optimistic IMO.