So what, it this a fact now just because you say it? As far as I know, Tesla is still production constrained.
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So what, it this a fact now just because you say it? As far as I know, Tesla is still production constrained.
My take on 2015 delivery dial down from 55,000 to 50,000 - 55,000 cars delivered is:
1. There may be uncertainty around capability to deliver sufficient number of X in 2015. That uncertainty is mainly due to untested capabilities of various suppliers.
2. It might be difficult to grow S demand before year end as many potential customers might be holding on until they know more about X before committing to purchasing either S or X.
3. Elon's statement 'winning has to feel like winning' makes me think that he switched from over promising and under delivering mode to under promising and over delivering.
4. I doubt that the demand will be an issue in 2016. There may be some customer migration from S to X, but overall I expect X and S 70 to drive the demand growth in 2016, in sufficient numbers to exceed production capability.
5. There may be some other creative product surprises in 2016. I will be surprised if there are no surprises from Tesla :biggrin: My favorite surprise would be the advancement in battery technology. It could be said that the advancement in battery technology is almost an expectation, but lets call it a surprise for now.
You know maoing, we have been hearing this "demand constrained" ever since Tesla has been producing 1,000 cars a year, 10,000 cars a year and now when we are at 50,000 cars a year. It really is getting old.
I am not saying demand is unlimited and I certainly can`t blame those who had doubts early on. After all, this was an untested concept. But after so many quarters with record deliveries combined with virtually stagnating delivery times - a constant backlog of 2-3 months depending on model/your location-, really? Still the same old song?
I have no doubt Tesla has enough demand for 90-100k S & X combined per year. If by demand constrained you mean it will not grow after that until Model 3, you are right. They may move in the 80-100k range, but there is a natural limit to sedans and SUVs with a cool 100k ASP.
Everyone realizes why guidance was lowered...right? It was in the CC very clearly explained. It's all due to how the X will ramp up. If there are hiccups (bottom end is 50k deliveries... If no hiccups 55k). Nothing to really debate about.
Of course you're right. I'll hope for the best.
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If that's true, why is Elon trying to spike the Model S order pipeline with the referral program?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Based on what I heard Elon say on the call, Model S production will not be doubling in the next few months. Elon basically said Tesla will exit 2015 with the factory set up for theoretical production capacity of 1,000 Model S per week and 1,000 Model X per week.
So Model S production capacity is not changing materially. I believe he is trying to spike the Model S pipeline because of the Osborne Effect of the Model X.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Tesla was production constrained until the last plant upgrade cycle. Now they are temporarily demand constrained. I fully expect them to be production constrained again once Model X configurator pops up.
I'm not sure if they'll ever get production above demand for more than a week or two at a time (at least until the model 3 order backlog clears out).
Concerning demand vs production constrained. We cannot know for sure, but these discussions are all about reading tea leaves. It is obviously an investing advantage to figure things out before Mr. Market, which is really the reason we hang on on the investment forums.
I would argue that a few things are facts:
1) TM used to be and probably still is production constrained.
2) Elon will not suddenly tweet "well, today is the day. The lines crossed and we are demand constrained". We will learn about it after the fact.
3) The traditional defense of the demand theory is that TM is not advertising or working to increase demand. That is now no longer true. (The referral program is a demand generator)
So we may not like it, but it is not a ridiculous theory that we are at at least parity of demand/production. My strong feeling is that they are in balance now. I don't really think there is a strong Osborne effect in play since a relatively small number of people cross shop sedans and SUV's. A few people might be waiting for some gee-whiz features.
I would argue that a few things are facts:
1) TM used to be and probably still is production constrained.
2) Elon will not suddenly tweet "well, today is the day. The lines crossed and we are demand constrained". We will learn about it after the fact.
3) The traditional defense of the demand theory is that TM is not advertising or working to increase demand. That is now no longer true. (The referral program is a demand generator)
So we may not like it, but it is not a ridiculous theory that we are at at least parity of demand/production. My strong feeling is that they are in balance now. I don't really think there is a strong Osborne effect in play since a relatively small number of people cross shop sedans and SUV's. A few people might be waiting for some gee-whiz features.
Perfectlogic
Member
I think demand and capacity is about equal at this point too, the stable waiting list suggests this. Looking back since inception the demand for the S has increased steadily over the years at about the pace of production capacity increases (shown in the somewhat stable waiting list). It seems to me though that the increasing demand curve is slowing down a bit as the production has been somewhat stable for a while now without a wait list increase. Whether the X will pick up this demand slack so we can reach the 2k/week capacity I'm not so sure. I don't think the X differs that much in utility from the S as the S is already a very large car, so I doubt the new addition will double the demand right out the gate, that said I still think Tesla will meet the implied of around 88k sales next year due to the 20k X backlog. Personally I don't like the design of the X very much from what I've seen so far and think (might be bias since I'm not invested currently) that incremental demand might be softer than some expects. Might also come some sell the news effect into play as the X has been highly anticipated for a long time. I am hoping to get in around $180-200 late this year or early next.
Jerome Guillen's absence makes headlines and stock drops another 2%:
Tesla VP of Service Takes Leave of Absence as Model X Nears - Bloomberg Business
Tesla VP of Service Takes Leave of Absence as Model X Nears - Bloomberg Business
The fact that Elon announced Ahuja's retirement on stage during the shareholder meeting, and gave him a sendoff, tells me that Ahuja's departure was on good terms. The fact that he did not do the same for Jerome, who was part of the senior management team, tells me that situation is different. It could be personal or familial issues that are the reason for the leave of absence, but the sale of over 30% of his stock shares and change in SEC reporting responsibilities for his role might be more telling than anything else.
What leads you to believe that he sold "over 30% of his stock shares" ?
I do not believe that this is accurate.
retire in early 50s.Similar threads
