Almost ready with FSD Beta V9

[run-the-joules]

For my AP2 car (since I don't have FSD beta) the majority of improvements I've seen are on NoA.

Specifically with merging, changing lanes and detecting speeding cars in blind spots.

I drive a lot - over 18,500 miles since November 2020 on my Y. So, I get to use these features a lot - daily.

Yeah, there have been some improvements that help quite a lot when I'm going somewhere outside of rush hour, but unfortunately some of the logic with NOA makes it effectively unusable for me when it comes to my normal commute drives.

My commute heavily relies on left-side exits and time-based HOV lanes, and it fundamentally doesn't understand that those exist, let alone how they work (which is fascinating to me since I'm in the bay area, so it's not like they're something the team doesn't see). So instead of taking the very logical left-side exit, it wants to get out of the HOV lane and meander across 3 lanes of traffic to the right side exit… and it wants to do that 3+ miles before the exit.

It also still aggressively craps its pants and drops the ol' anchor when presented with merging traffic whilst in the right lane, instead of just moving over out of the right lane like a sane person does.

I still have NOA on by default, and love it when I get to use it, but I tap to disable it on any drive when I'm going to/from work during commute hours or when traffic is heavy.

Edited to add: It also still waits too damned long to move into the passing lane when approaching slow cars. It gets close enough to the point where it slows down, then moves over, then re-accelerates. More often than not I end up commanding a lane change for overtake well before the car does.

 

[DanCar]

Anyone know what this ridiculous word salad from Elon means?

Glossary:
real-world AI has to be solved - We need to have really smart or general A.I. that doesn't exist.
to make unsupervised - You don't have to baby sit.
generalized full self-driving work - Level 5 = generalized. Level 4 = not so generalized.
biological neural nets - The human brain
with optical imagers - Human eyes

 

[Knightshade]

Omg Wow. Please I bag you educate yourself.

I have.

I've learning you're incapable of admitting you're wrong no matter how many times you're proven so.

Even when someone lines all the posts up in a neat, clear package.

Very educational indeed!

i'm not gonna bother continuingly responding

That's the most useful thing you've posted in the thread.
(not especially believable though- so at least you're consistent!)

Primer on SAE Levels of Autonomy

Primer on SAE Levels of Autonomy

Since I know we have a lot of discussions about the SAE levels, I thought I would write up a primer from the SAE document: General The levels are not in order of quality, or merit or technology. L5 is not necessarily “better” than L4. L4 is not necessarily “better” than L3. A “high...

teslamotorsclub.com

Great job posting another link that proves your own argument wrong I must admit

Still, since all those words appear to have confused you, let's try a picture:

That's from the SAE. About their levels of driving.

Notice the part where only when you reach L4 or above is a driver never required to provide input?

Since Teslas pre 3-19 description of FSD described it's ability to take all those trips with NO input from the driver, it has to be at least L4. By definition.

You know? Like I already told you and you refused to believe?

I circled it in red in case you needed extra help finding it.

 

[ZeApelido]

I think this thread might end up on an infinite loop.

 

[dgatwood]

That's without even talking about the fact that Waymo's compute is made up of Edge TPU that is years ahead of Tesla's FSD.
TPU is vastly more powerful and more efficient than the FSD Computer

Come again? More efficient maybe, but not more powerful. The Edge TPU is 4 TOPS. The FSD NPU is 36 TOPS, and there are two of them per HW3 board. So you'd need 18 of them to equal the two chips in the HW3 board.

Mind you, those 18 chips would only use 9 watts, which is probably quite a bit lower than the NPU portions of HW3, but that assumes you can parallelize the work across 18 chips efficiently.

 

[heltok]

I think this thread might end up on an infinite loop.

I have a feeling some of the posters here are just here to create discord. Not sure if they are paid or what’s their agenda, but it sure seems that so many discussions very quickly turns into long debates that sucks the energy out of the threads.

Imo if there is too much of agreement and it starts getting into semantics and who is right or wrong rather than trying to help each other understand better, just stop posting and let the other person ”win” rather actually win. Specially if you are arguing with a bot set to sow discord.

 

[diplomat33]

I think this thread might end up on an infinite loop.

FSD discussions obey Bacon's Law or Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon. Any FSD topic is just 6 degrees of separation from a few common topics, namely, whether lidar is doomed/necessary, can camera vision do FSD, does Tesla use HD maps, are HD maps needed, can Tesla achieve L5, what is L4 or L5, and will Waymo be able to scale to more cities. That's why every FSD discussion eventually devolves into the same old debates over and over again.

 

[Knightshade]

FSD discussions obey Bacon's Law or Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon. Any FSD topic is just 6 degrees of separation from a few common topics, namely, whether lidar is doomed/necessary, can camera vision do FSD, does Tesla use HD maps, are HD maps needed, can Tesla achieve L5, what is L4 or L5, and will Waymo be able to scale to more cities. That's why every FSD discussion eventually devolves into the same old debates over and over again.

Also

#WhatAboutTheRegulators?!

 

[diplomat33]

Also

#WhatAboutTheRegulators?!

Yes. And I guess now we should also add "is radar doomed?" to the list of basic topics.

 

[Mengy]

I think this thread might end up on an infinite loop.

Pretty much!

It's been an entertaining read, but at the end of the day I feel the team at Tesla know more about FSD than any of us here, and any decisions they make are likely far more informed than any of us debating here can suss out. If they feel radar is no longer neccessary than I will take them at their word.

Can't wait to see how much of an improvement V9 will be.

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1294374864657162240

Remember when the FSD rewrite was supposed to be a "quantum leap" in the fall?

I do feel bad for anyone who has ponied up $7k+ for a product that doesn't exist and may never exist (Tesla's own words) to the extent they have promised. You can't really back out now because you've paid that money so every time a new carrot is dangled, you have to hope that *this* is the time they actually deliver.

 

[powertoold]

Remember when the FSD rewrite was supposed to be a "quantum leap" in the fall?

It was. Going from AP to FSD beta on city streets was a quantum leap.

That was basically the whole point and topic of that tweet exchange.

 

[mikes_fsd]

I do feel bad for anyone who has ponied up $7k+ for a product that doesn't exist and may never exist (Tesla's own words) to the extent they have promised. You can't really back out now because you've paid that money so every time a new carrot is dangled, you have to hope that *this* is the time they actually deliver.

Based on that it sound like you are not one of those "gullible suckers" that bought FSD.

That brings me to my question: WTF are you doing posting in a thread for something you clearly do not think will be a product that you will buy? Hell, it seems like you don't even think it is possible with Tesla hardware + software.

p.s. the only option we did not have to discuss/negotiate over with my wife was FSD, it was agreed on without even a mention. Exterior color on the other hand took a while to agree on.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Based on that it sound like you are not one of those "gullible suckers" that bought FSD.

That brings me to my question: WTF are you doing posting in a thread for something you clearly do not think will be a product that you will buy? Hell, it seems like you don't even think it is possible with Tesla hardware + software.

p.s. the only option we did not have to discuss/negotiate over with my wife was FSD, it was agreed on without even a mention. Exterior color on the other hand took a while to agree on.

I have two CT reservations and will have to decide at the time of delivery whether or not to pay for FSD (included to "lock in" price, but of course, Tesla may not honor that). So I may - or may not - be a future owner of a Tesla vehicle with FSD.

 

[gearchruncher]

It was. Going from AP to FSD beta on city streets was a quantum leap.

That was basically the whole point and topic of that tweet exchange.

Yet another "read what he means, not what he says".

The FSD improvement will come as a quantum leap, because it’s a fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak.

There is no "quantum leap" to something that doesn't exist yet if you're arguing all he meant was city streets was coming. He's saying that the re-wrote *everything* as a "fundamental architectural rewrite". You can't rewrite something that doesn't exist. A reasonable reader will read that as if all of autopilot will perform significantly better because it has been fundamentally re-architected and re-written, not just that city streets got added. And of course, now we know that this made zero changes to highway behavior, so clearly it wasn't a rewrite/rearchitecture to AP as a whole. Just the part that nobody had access too anyway. This is peak Elon only thinking about his own experience and completely ignoring his customer's experience.

Almost at zero interventions between home & work. Limited public release in 6 to 10 weeks.

And then of course this part gets ignored or smoothed over. "Well he didn't say zero interventions." "Well, 100 specifically invited youtube influencers is "limited public""

 

[gearchruncher]

#WhatAboutTheRegulators?!

I know, it's so weird that people wonder about that.

The future use of these features without supervision is dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions.

Can we add "Is Elon's getting better on timeframes lately?" to the list?

 

[powertoold]

There is no "quantum leap" to something that doesn't exist yet if you're arguing all he meant was city streets was coming. He's saying that the re-wrote *everything* as a "fundamental architectural rewrite".

I'm confused. What doesn't exist?

Before limited public release of fsd beta, AP on city streets went in a straight line, was bad at doing this, required confirmations at lights, couldn't handle steep curves, etc. etc.

Fsd beta was released and could handle 10s if not hundreds more situations and environments on city streets. Obviously quantum leap is subjective, but I'd say so. In order to release fsd beta to limited consumers, Tesla had to rewrite their software to get it good enough for public release? Hello? Am I missing something?

 

[Bladerskb]

If the driver never will be required to provide input that is at least L4.

By definition.

Wow at your refusal to read. No where does it say the driver NEVER has to provide input.

The entire difference between 3 and 4 is if a human ever will be required to provide input.

Tesla describes a system where you will not.

It says "designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat."

Keyword: "able to", "trips" and "no action".

Its not saying that it will conduct all trips, just that it has the ability to conduct trips with no action.
Meaning there will be trips that will require action by the person in the driver's seat.

The term "no action" points towards driver input. But an ADS is not level 3, or level 4 by only whether driver input is required but by the driver not being required to monitor the environment or the system's performance.

The cross country Elon describe where the driver doesn't have to touch anything IS not Level 4 nor even Level 3.
Its squarely Level 2. When FSD Beta releases to the public as FSD City Streets, whether its disengagement rate is on average 100 miles or 200 miles.
Elon will say, FSD can now consistently do "zero intervention drives". This aligns with exactly what they put in the order page back in 2016.

The system will fit the exact description that Tesla laid out on the order page back then. That FSD City Streets is "designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat." They will recognize all the revenue for FSD.

The same description can be used for other door to door L2 system releasing in china that works anywhere in china.

Tesla's description was written by a lawyer, words MATTER!
No where does it say the driver NEVER has to take action.
No where does it says its ALL trips.
No where does it say the system is responsible, no were does it say the driver doesn't have to pay attention.
No where does it say that the car is autonomous.
No where does it say the driver can do other tasks like watch a video, read a book, go to sleep or not be in the driver seat.

Monitoring

When an ADS is on and is likewise performing the entire DDT the driver CANNOT be required to pay attention in-order to monitor the environment (road) or the system. Therefore a system you have to monitor or a system that requires you to pay attention, no matter how good it is. It is not a ADS (levels 3-5)!

When operating conventional vehicles that are not equipped with an engaged ADS, drivers visually sample the road scene sufficiently to competently perform the DDT while also performing secondary tasks that require short periods of eyes-off-road time (e.g., adjusting cabin comfort settings, scanning road signs, tuning a radio, etc.). Thus, monitoring the driving environment does not necessarily entail continuous eyes on-road time by the driver.

At levels 1-2, the driver monitors the driving automation system’s performance.
At higher levels of driving automation (levels 3-5), the ADS monitors its own performance of the complete DDT.


Also to go even further, even using your flawed logic and false interpretation that this is L4 description. The logic you are probably using to say its not L5 is also wrong.

Having/Not having a steering wheel doesn't make a car L4 or L5.
Having/Not having a person in the driver seat doesn't make a car L4 or L5.

"almost all circumstances" actually matches the criteria for L5 in SAE's 60 page document.

NNs get better with time and training. Karpathy points this out in the video I guess you didn't bother to watch- that the system continues improving with this training. That's the whole reason a large amount of real world data is valuable.

Again you appear to know nothing about the topic you're trying to discuss.

I have watched that exact video more than 20 times. I have also watch hundreds of other SDC videos and presentations culminating to thousands of watches and read hundreds of paper.
Unlike like you Tesla isn't the only company that exists in the universe.

Ignorance is bliss.

 

[Bladerskb]

I'm confused. What doesn't exist?

Before limited public release of fsd beta, AP on city streets went in a straight line, was bad at doing this, required confirmations at lights, couldn't handle steep curves, etc. etc.

Fsd beta was released and could handle 10s if not hundreds more situations and environments on city streets. Obviously quantum leap is subjective, but I'd say so. In order to release fsd beta to limited consumers, Tesla had to rewrite their software to get it good enough for public release? Hello? Am I missing something?

FSD Beta is not released, only employees and 99% TSLA's inventors who are media influencers has it. Basically the PR firm of Tesla.
If this counts as released then every single company has released their autonomous system to the public.
But we know how you contradict your self.

Its marketing material when its other companies and future software release are worthless because it doesn't exist or downright sucks.
But for tesla, its real, amazing, best thing since sliced bread, can't wait, have you seen the videos? omg!! videos in urban traffic shows how good it is. omg. a video is all you need. haven't you seen the videos? its blowning my mind away!! omg!

When its others...what? videos of it in traffic? GTFO that doesn't exist. Until i can buy it and have it in my car it doesn't exist. I don't even want to talk about it.
And when it does exist, unless there's thousands of videos on YT demonstrating it, then no. I don't care that Youtube is banned in china and you need a VPN which are also banned and blocked. I don't care that there's tens of millions of AP videos on youtube but you can barely find a AP video in china because YT is blocked. I don't care about the company's SEC guided ADAS take rate and their usage rate. These are made up stats. made up miles.

Its complete marketing propaganda. No videos means the software doesn't exist or sucks.

Also here's stats released by Tesla. AP is 10x safer. omg have you seen the videos?. Here's this video of it stopping at a stop sign and making a left turn. omg its blowing my mind OMG! Tesla says 1 million left turns have been made. OMG.

 

[daktari]

A technology demonstration that is pretty useless gets old really fast. Quantum leap as a demonstrator? Maybe, as a non-lidar car first in business?

Sadly the beta is useless IRL; you can not sleep, work, text, make out, watch a movie; nothing. The beta drivers have to be nursing the car every split second while FSD tries to drive them. It is not comfortable or taking a burden of the driver. So FSD beta 8.2 is a useless feature, and that is not a quantum leap.

Let's hope v9 is the real thing, the real leap.