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So you don't believe that ANY feature of FSD can be rolled out "for years"?

Why do you think that?

FSD stands for full self drive. By that type of wording I would not expect any less than plugging in your destination and the car taking you from point A to B with a completely hands off experience. Don't think we are there yet. Even if Tesla might be, the government regulatory agencies are clearly not.
 
How does that disagree with me? EAP is still BETA


Look in your car.


Have you noticed that the website changed yesterday concerning FSD? Tesla's website can/has change(d) daily .....what hasn't changed is what is in your car on the screen.


Tesla's website also lists the P3D+ as 0-60 in 3.5 seconds. My P3D+ is blowing 3.5 away. Should I call them and have them adjust my 0-60 times because my car disagrees with their website?
You are correct that Tesla could remove drive on nav from EAP and make it exclusive to the FSD package. I'm not sure why you think they will though.
0-60 times will vary depending on conditions and manufacturing tolerances. It sounds like you got lucky and got a faster P3D. All the numbers I've seen have been almost exactly 3.5s.
 
FSD stands for full self drive. By that type of wording I would not expect any less than plugging in your destination and the car taking you from point A to B with a completely hands off experience. Don't think we are there yet. Even if Tesla might be, the government regulatory agencies are clearly not.
FSD vehicles are legal in California.
Deployment of Autonomous Vehicles for Public Operation
 
I probably won’t do it, but putting down the 4K (iirc) for the FSD might not be the worst idea since you’ll get the new silicon for the cost, and if Tesla never delivers the FSD you’ll likely get your 4K back. It’s just the timeframe and how long Tesla will have your money before acknowledging FSD was an overreach and issuing the refund that would be the issue. And if Tesla does deliver FSD, you’ll get it for likely a much reduced cost than what Tesla would eventually charge for it. It’s a decent gamble, IMO.
 
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I probably won’t do it, but putting down the 4K (iirc) for the FSD might not be the worst idea since you’ll get the new silicon for the cost, and if Tesla never delivers the FSD you’ll likely get your 4K back. It’s just the timeframe and how long Tesla will have your money before acknowledging FSD was an overreach and issuing the refund that would be the issue. And if Tesla does deliver FSD, you’ll get it for likely a much reduced cost than what Tesla would eventually charge for it. It’s a decent gamble, IMO.

This.

Lots of downside risk to get FSD back in December 2016 since it took a year to get in same ballpark of previous AP. I skipped it then.

Risk felt favorable to the upside so grabbed it with my 3 and added it to my X right before end of Q3.

Gotta remember that FSD cost less than EAP which makes no sense.

If Tesla could have done it all over again they should be charging for Autonomy tiers.

5000 for level 2, 5000 for level 3, 10,000 for level 4, etc
 
FSD vehicles are already legal in CA. I think they're legal in other states too.
There are 60 companies with permits to test FSD: Permit Holders
It doesn't look like anyone has applied for public deployment yet: Deployment of Autonomous Vehicles for Public Operation
Where is all this FUD about FSD vehicle regulations coming from?

This is my opinion, so it's coming from me and my realistic expectations of how legislation works in the US. The companies that have permits to operate autonomous vehicles have received those permits effectively after paying off lawmakers and states/counties/municipalities. A perfect example of this was Uber testing in AZ before running down the pedestrian crossing the road.

So, in my opinion, this is going to go one of two ways. States will pass 50 basic sets of legislation, and counties within them may add their own. This could range from all out ban, to specifying liability, to allowing what they believe will be the utopian future of machines driving themselves in public areas. We don't know, because there aren't any good models yet. Alternatively, the federal government could get involved because of the extremely high likelihood of these vehicles crossing state lines with and without an operator inside them. If that happens, I expect it will take even longer, because each state will take on its own rules. This is pretty much how things work now in real life, so I see no reason to not expect the same.

The most likely outcome of all of this is that we live in a very small bubble where we think robot cars operating on their own is a great idea in most cases, but the public at large does not and will fight any attempt to make autonomous vehicles a normal thing until they themselves own one. This is again based on my realistic view of how society works here in the US, and loosely how it works elsewhere. This isn't FUD, it's my educated guess. So maybe it's UD? Because I'm uncertain that FSD will be allowed nationally within the next 18 months, and I doubt legislation is actively being worked on now on a national or wider state level.

BTW, CA does not represent the rest of the US. This should be very clear to most people by this point, right? And most US citizens live outside CA rather than inside.
 
This is my opinion, so it's coming from me and my realistic expectations of how legislation works in the US. The companies that have permits to operate autonomous vehicles have received those permits effectively after paying off lawmakers and states/counties/municipalities. A perfect example of this was Uber testing in AZ before running down the pedestrian crossing the road.

So, in my opinion, this is going to go one of two ways. States will pass 50 basic sets of legislation, and counties within them may add their own. This could range from all out ban, to specifying liability, to allowing what they believe will be the utopian future of machines driving themselves in public areas. We don't know, because there aren't any good models yet. Alternatively, the federal government could get involved because of the extremely high likelihood of these vehicles crossing state lines with and without an operator inside them. If that happens, I expect it will take even longer, because each state will take on its own rules. This is pretty much how things work now in real life, so I see no reason to not expect the same.

The most likely outcome of all of this is that we live in a very small bubble where we think robot cars operating on their own is a great idea in most cases, but the public at large does not and will fight any attempt to make autonomous vehicles a normal thing until they themselves own one. This is again based on my realistic view of how society works here in the US, and loosely how it works elsewhere. This isn't FUD, it's my educated guess. So maybe it's UD? Because I'm uncertain that FSD will be allowed nationally within the next 18 months, and I doubt legislation is actively being worked on now on a national or wider state level.

BTW, CA does not represent the rest of the US. This should be very clear to most people by this point, right? And most US citizens live outside CA rather than inside.
I think if Tesla can't geo fence their FSD then they probably also don't have the skill to implement FSD. California is the biggest market for Tesla in the country and also where Tesla is headquartered. I don't think they are going to hold back self driving cars just because they're not yet legal in some states. And if you want to make a cynical "real world" money argument then you have to consider that $80 billion has been invested in FSD so there is MASSIVE corporate interest in having FSD vehicles be legal nationwide.
 
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BTW, CA does not represent the rest of the US. This should be very clear to most people by this point, right? And most US citizens live outside CA rather than inside.

Whether you like it or not, CA is the largest market for automobiles in the world.

As a result, CA's clean air regs created the "50 state car" standard and became the tail wagging the dog over the past 40 years. Hell, how many "compliance cars" have been created just to cater to CA?

Similarly, compliance with CA's autonomous vehicle requirement is a template gift to the other states who will likely adopt it and create instant adoption for automakers that comply.
 
I bought the FSD on my model 3 for one reason. Jim Keller was involved. If AP 3 fails it will not be because of the hardware as this person knows what he is doing. He got Apple and AMD into using good in house clean designs and hopefully Tesla. Intel hired him from Tesla. He left AMD before Zen was released and it's doing pretty well. Hopefully the software will some day make it. Even if the FSD never fully happens I expect EAP on AP 3.0 hardware to be better than on AP 2.x hardware (after a period of time).

Jim Keller known for
DEC Alpha
AMD K7
AMD K8
AMD K12
AMD Zen
Apple A4, A5
x86-64 (coauthor)
HyperTransport (coauthor)
 
Optimistically, I see FSD in widespread rollout and relatively usable in probably 18 months. I don't see legislation passing in most places in anything less than 18 months after that. We're easily years away from allowing fully autonomous vehicle operation. And once that starts to happen, there are tons of other corner cases that need to be worked out like liability, responsibility for traffic violations, etc. The first time a drunk person gets into a fully autonomous vehicle and fails a breathalyzer, there's going to be real trouble.

With respect, I disagree with you on both points: I think we are 5 to 10 years away from Level 4 autonomy, and 10 to 15 years away from Level 5, which would be full self-driving. But I think that once the cars are ready, regulatory approval will be extremely fast. FSD cars will be much safer, so there will be many people and institutions pushing for regulatory approval. The only opponents will be a few isolated Luddites. No established company or institution will lobby against approval, but many will be lobbying for approval because all the major automakers will be offering FSD cars at around the same time.

I'm not playing with words at all.

EAP is still beta - FACT

Have you spoken to Tesla to know when they will end EAP's development?

Tesla has said many things concerning the Model 3 but they aint happened yet. Where is my badging? Where is my carbon spoiler? Where is my "waiting in line" gift?

Things change at Tesla on an hourly basis and ultimately its great. No complaints.


FACT = EAP is still beta - that's the TRUTH....not a play on words. Look in your car.

IMO = FSD should roll out the same way.

You seem to keep saying that EAP does not exist because it's beta. Yes, it's beta. And yes, it exists. I use it every time I drive my car. EAP exists now and is usable and I use it every time I drive.

FSD does not exist now in either of its two meanings, which you seem to conflate as though they were the same thing: Actual full self-driving does not exist in any car a consumer can buy today. And no Tesla offered for sale to the public today has any features not available in an EAP car, so the FSD package does not exist.

EAP exists today. FSD does not. Some day it will. But it does not yet. And Tesla has tacitly admitted that its "FSD" package is not really full self-driving. It's just a confusing marketing name for a set of driver-assist functions that Tesla is not yet ready to implement or even list.
 
I never want FSD just EAP developed more over time with even more safety features. I still really enjoy driving. What I really want is fully defeatable traction/stability control so I can see what straight ahead looks like out my side window window :)
 
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My opinion:

Buy FSD TODAY!!!

IMO, Tesla removed the option to get your $3k now, because they are VERY close to getting it out, as the new chip and other news incl. the drive by nav that almost ready, suggest!

Very likely that you Will want it sometime next year, and the price incl. upgrading the chip, will be very likely much more than $5k.

this makes no sense. if they were that close to having it ready, they would want more people buying it...not fewer.

also, even if it were "ready" tomorrow, it still wouldn't be legal to use it for YEARS until regulations are passed controlling it.

edit: just saw the last sentence of your post - i'm pretty sure they can't legally do this. we purchased a car from them that was advertised as having all the hardware needed for FSD, with the option to add the software after purchase for $X. they can't go back later and say "yeah, sorry, it will now cost you $Y because we need to upgrade the hardware." that's why they're saying it'll be free for anyone who bought FSD - any hardware upgrades needed will be included with the $5k upgrade for anyone who buys it in the future.
 
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I probably won’t do it, but putting down the 4K (iirc) for the FSD might not be the worst idea since you’ll get the new silicon for the cost, and if Tesla never delivers the FSD you’ll likely get your 4K back. It’s just the timeframe and how long Tesla will have your money before acknowledging FSD was an overreach and issuing the refund that would be the issue. And if Tesla does deliver FSD, you’ll get it for likely a much reduced cost than what Tesla would eventually charge for it. It’s a decent gamble, IMO.

what happens if you sell your tesla before then, or total it tomorrow? you might as well have taken that $4k and set it on fire...
 
This is a bit tangential to the point of this thread, but regrets for not buying FSD disappeared when I saw how rough EAP was. Correcting for expectations, on v9 TACC is rough around the edges, and autosteer is barely successful even on my 15 mile commute. A slight curve in the road sends it to the outer edge of the lane, and since it never cares about being next to another car (why would it, it’s not part of TACC), it comes hair raisingly close to other cars which are more likely creeping to the inside of their lane.

I love autopilot and use it every drive, but you’re going to have to show me something more impressive to get me to think Tesla FSD is anywhere on the horizon. Maybe hardware v3 will do it. I’ll hold onto my money until then and gladly pay up if it’s worthwile.
 
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So you don't believe that ANY feature of FSD can be rolled out "for years"?

Why do you think that?

FSD = full self driving. either the car drives itself or it doesn't. i don't understand the people insisting that this can be rolled out incrementally.

it's still available as an option for those of us who have our 3 and didn't order it...the upgrade description says:

Full Self Driving Capability
Adding this option today means you will be one of the first to experience full self-driving when it becomes available in the future.

This functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval. It is not possible to know exactly when it will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction.

Note: Enhanced Autopilot is required for the purchase of Full Self Driving Capability.​

again, "FULL SELF DRIVING CAPABILITY." either the car drives itself, or it doesn't. there is no inbetween based on the way they have sold it thus far, and the way it's still available to those of us who have the car but didn't purchase it up front.
 
You are correct that Tesla could remove drive on nav from EAP and make it exclusive to the FSD package. I'm not sure why you think they will though.
0-60 times will vary depending on conditions and manufacturing tolerances. It sounds like you got lucky and got a faster P3D. All the numbers I've seen have been almost exactly 3.5s.

You haven't been watching YouTube then because all P3D's on there are faster than 3.5.

Yes I am correct that Tesla could do whatever they want..... The reason that I think the way I do is because Tesla has done it before with air-conditioned seats and such. One day its there and then the next its part of another package.