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CA Waiting Room
- Thread starter Ubez
- Start date
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- California Model Y tesla
Vin_L
Member
I wonder how many April ordered will fall through the cracks and not get delivered at end of quarter for here in CA?
It will change back tmr to previous datesGreat to hear at least a couple of folks are getting VINs. Still no luck for me, my 4/11 order is still not here, and today my EDD again changed to "September."
Hope no one in here at least.... including me cant be me aint me
most definitely me, in fact at this point i'm planning on july/august and looking at rental car options to get me through the summer. Sixt has some decent long-term rates. can't uber around forever!!
Probably me - we are traveling last week of June, so there is a fairly good chance we'll get bumped to September!
Me too - looks like I am officially in the July gang. Great idea re Sixt, I will check it out also until the Tesla Gods come together and give me a VIN.
Emmadiane
Member
if you do a home delivery, you don't have to be there to accept. I'm sure you have to send the paperwork back within a certain period, but that may give you enough leeway.
fender4645
Member
Ok, looks like some folks can use a pep talk here.
It's somewhat old data but as of October of last year, the estimated output of M3/MY in Fremont was 500,000 per year. Now we know that they're currently making more MYs than M3s right now but for the sake of argument, let's say that's split down the middle. So 250,000 MYs can be made in a year. That's 684 cars per day.
Now we all agree that Tesla is going to maximize the deliveries so they can be delivered in this quarter so they can recognize the revenue. So once we hit the the final seven days, that pretty much limits them to California -- maybe Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona -- in order to guarantee delivery by the 30th. Even if you include those other three states, I can almost guarantee you that 95% of the cars will be going to California. So 684 x 7 is 4788 cars. 4788 cars that should be delivered in the final week. And I really think this is on the low end considering they're making more MYs now and I'm sure their production capacity has increased in the last 9 months.
So in conclusion, I still think anyone that has a "by June 30th" date still has a really good chance of getting a car by that date. And even if you have a July or August date, I think there's still a shot too. There are a lot of people who are buying up these demo/showroom cars or who are just giving up all together. And that's one less car that's in front of you.
It's somewhat old data but as of October of last year, the estimated output of M3/MY in Fremont was 500,000 per year. Now we know that they're currently making more MYs than M3s right now but for the sake of argument, let's say that's split down the middle. So 250,000 MYs can be made in a year. That's 684 cars per day.
Now we all agree that Tesla is going to maximize the deliveries so they can be delivered in this quarter so they can recognize the revenue. So once we hit the the final seven days, that pretty much limits them to California -- maybe Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona -- in order to guarantee delivery by the 30th. Even if you include those other three states, I can almost guarantee you that 95% of the cars will be going to California. So 684 x 7 is 4788 cars. 4788 cars that should be delivered in the final week. And I really think this is on the low end considering they're making more MYs now and I'm sure their production capacity has increased in the last 9 months.
So in conclusion, I still think anyone that has a "by June 30th" date still has a really good chance of getting a car by that date. And even if you have a July or August date, I think there's still a shot too. There are a lot of people who are buying up these demo/showroom cars or who are just giving up all together. And that's one less car that's in front of you.
elizabeth22
Member
Hopefully we get some VINs coming in before the weekend! Tomorrow is going to be a busy day... hopefully...
Week after week that is said.
Let tomorrow be prosperous with vins with short deliveries.
Probably the most intuitive thing I’ve read, good analysis and presumption let’s hope the past data really projects
blissdancer
Member
I was told two days ago I would get my VIN shortly after the June 21st. I log into my Tesla account daily. Today it said expected delivery Sept!!!! WTF??? I am calling in the morning!!!
