Coronavirus

[kbM3]

I do feel sorry for the people in the situation you describe. It it more a US problem in that aspect I suppose - here in New Zealand that restaurant server gets unlimited time on an unemployment benefit along with unlimited free health care.

My biggest fear for the U.S. economy is how unprepared we are for this. We’ve been increasing the debt at an astonishing rate before this crisis, and I wonder if anyone here has an idea, what effects massive spending increases will entail? It seems like we’ve entered LaLa land where we can just run increasing deficits forever and have no consequences.

Universal Basic Income is a grand idea, but it has to be paid for somehow, right?

 

[linux-works]

Last time a cop pulled me over in the P3D he asked me "do you know why I pulled you over?" My reply - "because I let you?" Needless to say, I did not get out of that ticket.

there's an old joke that goes like:

"cop: so, do you know why I pulled you over?"
"driver: yeah, because you got C's and D's in school?"

(sorry, for any good cops out there. I know not all of you are like that.)

 

[Doggydogworld]

Latest Collier County, FL stats. Positives are still mostly travel related...

That happens when one of the main criteria to get tested is recent travel. It's the same in my county. "No evidence of community spread" because they only test people who have traveled or have had extended contact with someone who already tested positive.

It was the same in Seattle until their Flu Study group broke the rules and found that high school kid. Which the FDA/CDC then ordered them not to disclose, but they wisely did anyway so kid could be isolated and the high school cleaned.

We'll get a better idea where we stand as testing ramps. Random testing would really help.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Showing signs of testing capacity ramping now with 4100+ confirmed cases today

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Yep. New York seems to be ramping rapidly. Apparently 5000+ now (not surprising - real number is likely ~30k in NY). It'll be interesting to see how much the % positive rate has reduced with the latest tests - should give an idea.

By Saturday, I predict we will be #3 in the world, trailing Italy and China, with ~30k known cases nationwide. Will probably will end up with 250k+ cases nationwide, ~100k in New York. And I expect we'll be through the worst of it by mid-May, assuming the government actually does their job (all affected counties in the country do lockdowns very soon, and the federal government provides all necessary assistance), and people cooperate.

I predict we'll be #1 (reported numbers) in the world by the end of March. April will be a month of plateau and recovery, with lots of cases still, and May will be the cleanup month.

I think that's about the most optimistic scenario - it does depend on everything being done well from now on.

 

[ggr]

there's an old joke that goes like:

"cop: so, do you know why I pulled you over?"
"driver: yeah, because you got C's and D's in school?"

(sorry, for any good cops out there. I know not all of you are like that.)

Two riders from my old motorcycle club. One on an older Ducati, other on a brand new BMW. Cop pulls them both over, talks to Pete on the Ducati first.
Cop: You changed lanes without a blinker. (This was in Australia, where they actually care about stuff like blinkers.)
Pete: Oh, terribly sorry, thought I'd indicated... bloody Ducati electrics... I'll be more careful...
(Cop goes to other guy)
Cop: you changed lanes without a blinker. I suppose yours doesn't work either?
Other guy (forgotten his name): It's a f*ing BMW, of course the f*ing blinker works!

 

[X Fan]

Showing signs of testing capacity ramping now with 4100+ confirmed cases today

Dr. Birx said the other day that cases will jump up for a couple of days due to working down the backlog. I don't recall which day she suggested would represent a real daily count.

 

[eevee-fan]

Yep. New York seems to be ramping rapidly. Apparently 5000+ now (not surprising - real number is likely ~30k in NY). It'll be interesting to see how much the % positive rate has reduced with the latest tests - should give an idea.

By Saturday, I predict we will be #3 in the world, trailing Italy and China, with ~30k known cases nationwide. Will probably will end up with 250k+ cases nationwide, ~100k in New York. And I expect we'll be through the worst of it by mid-May, assuming the government actually does their job (all affected counties in the country do lockdowns very soon, and the federal government provides all necessary assistance), and people cooperate.

I predict we'll be #1 (reported numbers) in the world by the end of March. April will be a month of plateau and recovery, with lots of cases still, and May will be the cleanup month.

I think that's about the most optimistic scenario - it does depend on everything being done well from now on.

So suddenly middle of May we all magically become resistant to the virus? How do you figure that?

 

[cusetownusa]

I do feel sorry for the people in the situation you describe. It it more a US problem in that aspect I suppose - here in New Zealand that restaurant server gets unlimited time on an unemployment benefit along with unlimited free health care.

Unlimited? Wow, if they did that here I am not sure anyone would ever go back to work.

 

[HG Wells]

*Walter Bloomberg on Twitter

"TRUMP SAYS WE’RE WATCHING THE AUTO INDUSTRY VERY MUCH AND WILL BE HELPING THEM OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT"

Depending on how much they contribute to my reelection campaign.

 

[jhm]

 

[Thekiwi]

Unlimited? Wow, if they did that here I am not sure anyone would ever go back to work.

Well it is still a lot less than you would get working on the minimum wage (which is $18.90c per hour from next month), whereas unemployment + accomodation allowance benefit is a few hundred dollars per week (more if you have kids). So you are still likely way better off in even an entry level 30 hours per week job.

(Although government also supplies cheap housing for low income/beneficiaries, but there is a waiting list for that, that will undoubtedly get a lot longer now)

 

[Yuri_G]

Good insight from Chamath again. Antibody testing of all would help us reevaluate who is immune and who needs to be protected.

 

[MD70]

Societies which have strong technocratic elites able to conduct long-term planning and relatively high levels of trust in experts and governments are responding better to the virus outbreak" says James Crabtree, associate professor of practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

"Hence why Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan seem to be coping better than Italy and the USA.
How Singapore stayed one step ahead of the virus

I know every country is not like Singapore but most can learn lessons from the way the place is run.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

So suddenly middle of May we all magically become resistant to the virus? How do you figure that?

It's going to require a substantial system of surveillance for the disease (think 10s of billions of dollars annually to support it - maybe more - I suspect it will be the sole responsibility of a new agency or sub-agency of the CDC). The agency won't be in place but the infrastructure will need to be in place by mid-May.

In addition, it may be necessary for mask wearing to become more of a standard practice in areas of higher risk and particularly for those who work with at-risk populations or in certain sorts of environments. I'd suspect that it will be required for anyone who works with food or in food service for a while.

Obviously, we're going to see further cases pop up. All travel from other countries will be halted shortly to allow us to extinguish the fires in this country. And then we'll re-open to other countries as they get their outbreaks under control (via similar methods) AND as long as they maintain travel restrictions on countries that are a risk.

There may also need to be additional screenings (body temperature screening, etc) added in high traffic locations.

We absolutely won't become magically resistant. There will need to be continual effort put in, but keep in mind we're playing a game of catch-up right now. When you're not playing catch-up, and epidemiologists are tasked with containing outbreaks, have plentiful test kits (with fast testing) and resources to work with, it is possible to contain local outbreaks.

We'll see. Of course, the disease will be with us for a while - until a vaccine is available, presumably. But this situation we find ourselves in is entirely of our own making - see: Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan. Also China. There is a way for life to go on.

 

[linux-works]

I have to LOL at our society, sometimes. we are just ramping up in our Big Push(tm) for mass surveillance and face recognition (bad as it is) - and now we're going to all be wearing masks whenever we go outside.

oh, the ironing!

(yes, we'll have to wash and clean our daily masks, and maybe iron, if we want to stay properly in fashion)

 

[aubreymcfato]

Look what Elon thinks...
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[kbM3]

Good insight from Chamath again. Antibody testing of all would help us reevaluate who is immune and who needs to be protected.

Great as always. He gives me hope that there may be an end in sight. If far more people have caught CV and recovered, it really does change everything.

Unfortunately the host cut him off and then misunderstood and confused anti-body testing (which detects people that have recovered), with the normal testing (like South Korea is doing which tells us who has it).

 

[HG Wells]

Look what Elon thinks...
Elon Musk on Twitter

Does not say which year.
April 2021 I can believe, April 2020 no way.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Does not say which year.
April 2021 I can believe, April 2020 no way.

He thinks 2020, of course.