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Deferring my order until forum members start to take delivery of their Sig's

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#81
Related to this topic, I would like to know the conversion rate. That is conversion from Reservation Holder to signed MVPA.

Most of the conversation assumes delivery is constrained by production, but I wonder how close to 100% are people signing up? I'm wondering if they aren't asking people in the P6k range, because that's what it takes to get enough "Finalized" takers.

Anyone have any numbers on this?
 
#82
KenEE said:
Related to this topic, I would like to know the conversion rate. That is conversion from Reservation Holder to signed MVPA.
Click to expand...

I too am curious on the attrition rate or close ratio between reservation and committed. I think the early Production 1-2500 probably has a number of gaps, from people upgrading to Sig and those who simply have waited too long and are not in the market this quarter or have simply decided on something else.

Beyond that who knows what the close ratio is. I'm guessing a 70% close ratio. 30% attrition due to any number of reasons. Eventually we'll be able to track reservation to VIN to see the delta between the numbers.
 
#83
shokunin said:
I too am curious on the attrition rate or close ratio between reservation and committed. I think the early Production 1-2500 probably has a number of gaps, from people upgrading to Sig and those who simply have waited too long and are not in the market this quarter or have simply decided on something else.

Beyond that who knows what the close ratio is. I'm guessing a 70% close ratio. 30% attrition due to any number of reasons. Eventually we'll be able to track reservation to VIN to see the delta between the numbers.
Click to expand...

Another question about the close ratio is, how many of those that drop out will come back to buy after this initial phase is over? Have they really decided they don't want to buy the car, or because there aren't many on the road and production still appears tenuous, will they simply choose to buy a little later?

My guess would be that in the long run that the final number that eventually buy will be closer to 90% or more.

So for the current 13,000+ reservation holders that they only lose less than a thousand.

- - - Updated - - -

Discoducky said:
Hoping I won't need to delay/slip my spot in line, however, if we can get some posts from Sig's here in the next week or so.
Click to expand...

Looking at the delivery thread, it looks like there's quite a few that are getting their cars right now and into next week. I'm rooting for Tesla and so that means I'm also rooting for you to get what you want.

Good luck.
 
#84
Grendal said:
Looking at the delivery thread, it looks like there's quite a few that are getting their cars right now and into next week. I'm rooting for Tesla and so that means I'm also rooting for you to get what you want.

Good luck.
Click to expand...

Waiting for the first sig reviews is analogous to waiting for Christmas morning. I feel like a 10 year old kid which is both good and horribly wrong. Shame on you sig folks and TM for making us wait for something so amazing and wonderful :tongue:
 
#85
It's hard to peg the "drop rate" because there are a lot of confounding factors. We do know that P5,539 is showing a December delivery (as of yesterday). Using that as a data point, there are approximately 40 Founders + 1,000 US Sig + 160 Canadian Sig + 5,538 potential P orders ahead of P5,539, for a total of 6,739. If P5,539 is the last car delivered in 2012, and if Tesla really delivers 5,000 cars, then 1,739 P reservations dropped (from the 5,538 pool), a 69% conversion rate.

But some of those "drops" are:

  • upgrades to Signature
  • waiting for Sunset Red
  • waiting for Standard Suspension
  • waiting for a 40kWh pack
  • waiting to let the product mature a bit
These factors make it hard to know what % of the early P reservation holders will end up owning a Model S by mid-2013 -- certainly above 70%.
 
#90
xhawk101 said:
They got to 5539 an no more emails yet. Hope they resume since I am 5810! I have been suggested to expect q1 2013 however so wondering if they will hold more confirmations for a while?!
Click to expand...

I think the highest I have seen from last week is 5687, so you will definitely be in the next batch. I am 5539, and just finalized last night with a 40kWh pack (air suspension and black interior). They gave me a Dec/Jan estimated delivery.
 
#92
I'm thinking the most important number is how many MVPA's are *signed*. That's a pretty sure number, although I haven't read the penalty for backing out from the signed agreement.
I've got two more days before I start slipping...
 
#93
I'm further down the queue at 7603 and 8501, but I was expecting a time to build order email around christmas, when there would be plenty of reviews, issues, real-world mileage stories, supercharger stories and a bazillion pictures of every color, wheel-combo, and interior option. I'd be able to make a real informed decision based on real world user-reviews. However, with the massive confirmation emails, there's a huge leap of faith based solely on a few pictures to commit on buying a 70K+ purchase. It's one thing to make a reservation, another thing to say, yeah build my car, even though I haven't seen the color, interior option, wheel combo, etc in person, and nor has my significant other.

That being said, I'm all ready to hit the button and finalize when the time comes. But I'm sure others were hoping for more first hand reports and news before they actually commit and confirm choices. "Honey, I got the email to confirm our options on the Model S" Significant Other: "So when can i test drive it, can we see the color of the gray interior? how does the car ride without the air suspension? what's in the tech package and why is it $3750 for those items, do we neeeeed it? Can our kids fit in the jump seats?"
 
#96
I probably have 2-3 months before finalizing. (8,5?? one day I'll remember the last 2!)

If they called today I would defer ... or cancel ... based on

- lack of knowledge of charging network
- lack of knowledge or availability of the so called "sig red" color choice
- no reviews yet of anyone from this forum
- no test drive yet
 
#97
sp4rk said:
I probably have 2-3 months before finalizing. (8,5?? one day I'll remember the last 2!)

If they called today I would defer ... or cancel ... based on

- lack of knowledge of charging network
- lack of knowledge or availability of the so called "sig red" color choice
- no reviews yet of anyone from this forum
- no test drive yet
Click to expand...

The charging network will likely be announced around that time but I wouldn't buy the car depending on an amazing network of Superchargers anytime soon. It will happen but depending on where you live, it could be a few years.
The Signature color is without a doubt only available to Signature reservation holders (some of who have been waiting since May 2009) so you don't need to wait on that information.
You'll definitely see reviews come up by the end of September.
You should be able to schedule a test drive soon but you may have to travel depending on where you live. Good luck.
 
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