Discussion: Model 3 and Y price drop Jan 2023 / April 2023 / Oct 2023 and All other Pricing Speculation going forward

[thesmokingman]

Perhaps everyone that needed to complain about the price drop has said their piece.

It'll take a few days for that lol.

 

[DrGriz]

The cars tested were not "2 or 3 years old when tested". And therefore did not suffer from the heavy battery degradation you are suggesting. They are simply results completed years earlier than now.. and the list has steadily grown year after year. Some of those results are now 1, 2, or even 3 years old. I am pretty sure each result is from a specific overall review of the vehicle.. as their exact review is the one I used as a basis for purchasing my wife's ID.4 back in 2021. Notice the date of the actual test completion: August 20, 2021 (two years ago!!): Volkswagen ID.4 Pro 70-MPH Highway Range Test.

The most important takeaway here is that Tesla is widely sorted and well-represented.. with results shown from a range of vehicles. A 2019 M3LR, 2020 MYLR, 2021 MS-Plaid, and 2021 M3LR were all tested.. so I am not seeing where this whole conspiracy theory stuff is coming from. As you said.. it is what it is.

As for the regular long-range S/X missing from the testing. Personally speaking, I can't afford a new $100,000 S or $120,000 X. So even if it achieved 500 miles in real-world testing (like the $165,000 Lucid they tested).. I honestly couldn't care any less. What is important to me is that vehicles I can actually afford, which do fall within my price range (up to $65K) are also well represented. That includes the M3LR & MYLR, Mach-E & EV F150, ID.4, Polestar, Ioniq5 & Kia EV6, and even the RIvian R1T (original starting price was $67,500). These are all vehicles very comparable in price and I imagine the ones most new EV buyers care about.

One thing I would like to see is this exact same sort of controlled test method done for EVERY EV. I find that the EPA range of many EVs is so different from the real-world range.. That whatever is shown on the sticker (or in the car) is often useless. In most cases, Tesla grossly overestimates its real-world range.. while companies like Porsche grossly underestimate it. I didn't notice this until Alex on Autos pointed out that every Tesla he has ever driven will only get about 90% of its indicated range.. even in the best conditions. Since the EPA publishes such unreliable range expectations.. it would be awesome to see some 3rd party step in and give us better "real-world" results. The list I posted by InsideEVs is just a start from what I'd like to see done.

Specifically what I'd like to see is a "real world" test of every EV showing results for these situations:

• 70mph range test in 80-degree weather, interior climate control set to 70 degrees.
• 70mph range test in 20-degree weather, interior climate control set to 70 degrees.
• Minutes of DC fast-charging it takes to add 100 miles of "real world" range @ 20% SoC in 80-degree weather
• Minutes of DC fast-charging it takes to add 100 miles of "real world" range @ 20% SoC in 20-degree weather
• 70mph range test while towing a 3,500lb trailer.. if it comes equipped with a Class III tow hitch and 2" receiver.

The idea is that most EVs are now capable of 200, even 300 miles of range in perfect conditions and low speeds. However, that range can drop tremendously while driving 70+ mph.. and/or in freezing temperatures.. and/or while pulling a trailer. Just as important as how far you can actually drive off a full battery.. is how much time it actually takes to recharge that battery on a longer trip. So I'd also like to see DCFC tests showing how long it takes to add another 100 miles of "real world" range. Especially in freezing weather, as many EVs do not have the ability to precondition the battery. This type of testing is important as it's likely DCFCs are still spaced so far apart in many parts of the US.. that it might actually take another 100 miles of driving until you can reach the next DCFC to continue your trip.. or arrive at your final destination.

I would imagine the above testing covers the overwhelming amount of long-distance driving scenarios. As an EV owner, you know the drill. For long trips, we commonly charge that battery up to 100% before leaving.. aim to drive until the battery reaches 20%.. then look for a DC fast charger. The above testing would give us a much better picture of exactly how far you can go.. and how realistically long it will take you to get there when driving any specific EV.

I think we agree on what we want and the deficiencies of the graph. I also agree with you about the underperformance of Tesla vs range estimates.

I also used their information when choosing an EV to purchase. But, they did compare the '22 Lucid and the '20 Mini in the same graph, which neither of us found useful because neither of us care, right? I didn't say conspiracy. Probably it's just really sloppy. I like data that's presented in a useful manner.

 

[Daekwan]

I'm not there yet. I need a few more days, lol

We need a group hug lol

 

[slvervper99]

Thats when the mineral requirements or whatnot kick in

So I wonder if Tesla is going to bring the price back up then probably not back to 65K but more or less 5k higher to 57,990. because that would at least bring back some of the value lost during this 3 month price craziness

 

[Occhis]

I checked multiple metro areas. All MYLR under $55k are gone, but many above $55k are available.

To take full advantage of the tax credit as a single person you need to make at least ~$65,000, but less than $150,000.

The tax credit has a lot more effect than I imagined it would.

As I understand it, this is a tax CREDIT not merely a tax reduction. So I the extreme situation, if you owe $0 in tax you will get a $7500 “refund” as in negative tax, like the child tax credit works for low wage earners with children. Correct me if I’m mistaken.

 

[woolymammoth17]

As I understand it, this is a tax CREDIT not merely a tax reduction. So I the extreme situation, if you owe $0 in tax you will get a $7500 “refund” as in negative tax, like the child tax credit works for low wage earners with children. Correct me if I’m mistaken.

The IRA credit is "nonrefundable," which means you can only get up to the amount of your tax liability as a credit. Example: Your tax liability is $3,000. Your credit will be $3,000, and you will not get a check back for the other $4,500.

 

[Occhis]

The IRA credit is "nonrefundable," which means you can only get up to the amount of your tax liability as a credit. Example: Your tax liability is $3,000. Your credit will be $3,000, and you will not get a check back for the other $4,500.

Just checked the IRS site and you are correct. Guess I read it wrong the first time.

 

[EVChris]

Can the credit or remainder be applied to a future year?

 

[Ray_R]

Can the credit or remainder be applied to a future year?

No

 

[acpd]

If my tax liability is $20,000. And I paid $20,500 federal tax via payroll. I am assuming I get back $8,000??

 

[pdx_m3s]

If my tax liability is $20,000. And I paid $20,500 federal tax via payroll. I am assuming I get back $8,000??

Yes.

 

[arbitrage000]

The cars tested were not "2 or 3 years old when tested". And therefore did not suffer from the heavy battery degradation you are suggesting. They are simply results completed years earlier than now.. and the list has steadily grown year after year. Some of those results are now 1, 2, or even 3 years old. I am pretty sure each result is from a specific overall review of the vehicle.. as their exact review is the one I used as a basis for purchasing my wife's ID.4 back in 2021. Notice the date of the actual test completion: August 20, 2021 (two years ago!!): Volkswagen ID.4 Pro 70-MPH Highway Range Test.

The most important takeaway here is that Tesla is widely sorted and well-represented.. with results shown from a range of vehicles. A 2019 M3LR, 2020 MYLR, 2021 MS-Plaid, and 2021 M3LR were all tested.. so I am not seeing where this whole conspiracy theory stuff is coming from. As you said.. it is what it is.

As for the regular long-range S/X missing from the testing. Personally speaking, I can't afford a new $100,000 S or $120,000 X. So even if it achieved 500 miles in real-world testing (like the $165,000 Lucid they tested).. I honestly couldn't care any less. What is important to me is that vehicles I can actually afford, which do fall within my price range (up to $65K) are also well represented. That includes the M3LR & MYLR, Mach-E & EV F150, ID.4, Polestar, Ioniq5 & Kia EV6, and even the RIvian R1T (original starting price was $67,500). These are all vehicles very comparable in price and I imagine the ones most new EV buyers care about.

One thing I would like to see is this exact same sort of controlled test method done for EVERY EV. I find that the EPA range of many EVs is so different from the real-world range.. That whatever is shown on the sticker (or in the car) is often useless. In most cases, Tesla grossly overestimates its real-world range.. while companies like Porsche grossly underestimate it. I didn't notice this until Alex on Autos pointed out that every Tesla he has ever driven will only get about 90% of its indicated range.. even in the best conditions. Since the EPA publishes such unreliable range expectations.. it would be awesome to see some 3rd party step in and give us better "real-world" results. The list I posted by InsideEVs is just a start from what I'd like to see done.

Specifically what I'd like to see is a "real world" test of every EV showing results for these situations:

• 70mph range test in 80-degree weather, interior climate control set to 70 degrees.
• 70mph range test in 20-degree weather, interior climate control set to 70 degrees.
• Minutes of DC fast-charging it takes to add 100 miles of "real world" range @ 20% SoC in 80-degree weather
• Minutes of DC fast-charging it takes to add 100 miles of "real world" range @ 20% SoC in 20-degree weather
• 70mph range test while towing a 3,500lb trailer.. if it comes equipped with a Class III tow hitch and 2" receiver.

The idea is that most EVs are now capable of 200, even 300 miles of range in perfect conditions and low speeds. However, that range can drop tremendously while driving 70+ mph.. and/or in freezing temperatures.. and/or while pulling a trailer. Just as important as how far you can actually drive off a full battery.. is how much time it actually takes to recharge that battery on a longer trip. So I'd also like to see DCFC tests showing how long it takes to add another 100 miles of "real world" range. Especially in freezing weather, as many EVs do not have the ability to precondition the battery. This type of testing is important as it's likely DCFCs are still spaced so far apart in many parts of the US.. that it might actually take another 100 miles of driving until you can reach the next DCFC to continue your trip.. or arrive at your final destination.

I would imagine the above testing covers the overwhelming amount of long-distance driving scenarios. As an EV owner, you know the drill. For long trips, we commonly charge that battery up to 100% before leaving.. aim to drive until the battery reaches 20%.. then look for a DC fast charger. The above testing would give us a much better picture of exactly how far you can go.. and how realistically long it will take you to get there when driving any specific EV.

Check out Kyle at OutofSpec and Bjorn's YT channels if you don't already.
Bjorn has a pretty good database of tests at different speeds and winter vs summer etc.
Kyle also has a lot of 70mph range tests using the same test loop every time.

Nothing is ever going to be perfect when doing range tests...no one can get access to all the cars at the same time and drive them 5 mins apart to keep things equal. But, both those channels are trying their best and doing a good job giving you a reasonably accurate and objectively comparable database of results.

Kyle also has towing tests.

 

[Benjamin22]

I’m curious how many people who bought in the last year at the higher price are conveniently forgetting the over inflated trade-in/sale price they got of the vehicle their Y replaced. While I’m sure it doesn’t amount to $13k it should soften the blow…

This is stupid things happening here. Never heard before. Millions of people loosing money and one man is making money. Is it a democratic country? This is not fair and should not be done. This is not farmers market. one day one price and next day different price for exactly same thing. How can we fight for it.

 

[Ray_R]

This is stupid things happening here. Never heard before. Millions of people loosing money and one man is making money. Is it a democratic country? This is not fair and should not be done. This is not farmers market. one day one price and next day different price for exactly same thing. How can we fight for it.

I don’t think it’s millions losing money. You only lose money if you try to sell the car. And it is a “farmer’s market”. It’s capitalism. You bought a car at a price you thought was fair. If the company selling the car decides the next day to start selling them for $1, that’s their perogative.

 

[RubberToe]

For your Sunday morning viewing pleasure. Some words of wisdom from the Mach-E forum...

Spoiler: Nasal Caffeine alert: Reading this could result in serious damage to your display device...

 

[Mike7564]

This is stupid things happening here. Never heard before. Millions of people loosing money and one man is making money. Is it a democratic country? This is not fair and should not be done. This is not farmers market. one day one price and next day different price for exactly same thing. How can we fight for it.

1. You aren’t losing money. You just are spending different amounts for a luxury item you chose to buy. If you wanted a cheap car, you can get a used car for $5-10k. (I use the term “luxury” in the economic manner, ie something you choose/want this buy, not a necessity)

2. More importantly, as painful as it sounds, prices fluctuate in life. For example, if you buy a gallon of milk and the next week it goes on sale, can you go to the store and demand a refund? Maybe a bad example on an EV forum, but the price of gas fluctuates daily. Get a gallon today and it almost certainly will be different price tomorrow.

3. Is TSLA entitled to go to prior customers and ask them to pay the extra when the price was increasing over the last year?

4. This price cut was pretty obviously coming. People have been posting about it (though some can’t read it because of kool-aid in their eyes). Not sure why everyone is surprised. Even Elon plainly said it (for what that’s worth). Did you think they seriously could keep selling a stripped down EV car with all the associated production/delivery headaches and software/feature functionality issues at such an absurd price? Apple can sell at high margins because they consistently delivery high end quality items. Tesla realistically is a mid range EV seller (at best) for the time being.

Mark my words, this price cut will stay around as demand softens more. But expect another cut/perk at the end of q1 and very likely another smaller price cut (or release of a low end RWD/etc model) by the end of the year.

Sorry to be blunt, but outside preschool, “not everyone can be a winner”

 

[ucmndd]

. This is not farmers market. one day one price and next day different price for exactly same thing.

Bruh. Have you ever been to a farmers market?

 

[Mike7564]

Bruh. Have you ever been to a farmers market?

You mean the place where entrepreneurial folks buy produce from wholesale grocery stores in less affluent parts of town and then drive and resell them as “fresh from the farm” for 60% markup?

 

[MacO512]

I fear that Tesla will out-compete all other car manufacturers with these new prices. At these levels, there isn’t any margin to make a profit with unless you’ve scaled up production, something only Tesla so far has achieved. The competitors will bleed a lot of money this year, draining themselves of cash to invest in their EV production lines.

Honestly I'm fine with this. Let GM, Nissan, Kia, and Chrysler go bankrupt. There will be room for new brands like BYD and enticing higher dollar ones like Lucid/Rivian. Legacy ICE automakers are getting exposed for forcing horrible dealers as well as models that get outdated every few years. Tesla is a game changer and I love it. Tesla still has tons of downsides, so if a competitor really kicks ass they have an opportunity to make it too.

 

[tanl]

1. You aren’t losing money. You just are spending different amounts for a luxury item you chose to buy. If you wanted a cheap car, you can get a used car for $5-10k. (I use the term “luxury” in the economic manner, ie something you choose/want this buy, not a necessity)

2. More importantly, as painful as it sounds, prices fluctuate in life. For example, if you buy a gallon of milk and the next week it goes on sale, can you go to the store and demand a refund? Maybe a bad example on an EV forum, but the price of gas fluctuates daily. Get a gallon today and it almost certainly will be different price tomorrow.

3. Is TSLA entitled to go to prior customers and ask them to pay the extra when the price was increasing over the last year?

4. This price cut was pretty obviously coming. People have been posting about it (though some can’t read it because of kool-aid in their eyes). Not sure why everyone is surprised. Even Elon plainly said it (for what that’s worth). Did you think they seriously could keep selling a stripped down EV car with all the associated production/delivery headaches and software/feature functionality issues at such an absurd price? Apple can sell at high margins because they consistently delivery high end quality items. Tesla realistically is a mid range EV seller (at best) for the time being.

Mark my words, this price cut will stay around as demand softens more. But expect another cut/perk at the end of q1 and very likely another smaller price cut (or release of a low end RWD/etc model) by the end of the year.

Sorry to be blunt, but outside preschool, “not everyone can be a winner”

1. I did lose money! When I bought my MYLR , I exchanged the same money for equivalent value. I did not underpay or use counterfeit money, but after the transaction, Tesla said that the product was not worth the money, so of course the extra money must be returned to me.
2. Car valuse $70k, milk or gas just cost dollars, you should be able to tell the difference between killing someone and yelling someone.
3. Commodity trading is an exchange of equivalent value. Since the previous transaction was reasonable, there is no reason to ask the prior customers to pay the extra when the price was increasing. now price cut just after I bought my MYLR in December, the value of my car has already dropped which shows that the previous transaction was unfair.