I heard it was going to be through Costco but they only would come in 6 packs. The current holdup is the packaging.
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Elon's demand "secret weapon" ...what is it?
- Thread starter LargeHamCollider
- Start date
PokerBroker
Member
There is a reason Better Place went broke with the battery swap model and why Renault is going away from battery leasing... It puts an incredible burden on the books
jhm
Well-Known Member
I forgot to mention in my last comment about the possibility of Tesla selling upgrade packages for Leafs and other EVs is that that these upgrades can also monetize the Supercharger network. So the package for a Leaf could minimally a Tesla battery pack providing 200 miles range, installation at a Tesla Service Center, and access to the Supercharger network. I think they could sell the package for $12,950 with a gross profit margin in excess of 30%. The inclusion of SC access would be hugely compelling, worth say $2000 to the customer, but actually adds very little incremental cost to Tesla. So it's like an 80% profit margin just for access.
igotzzoom
Active Member
Peter_M
Member
I don't know how likely it is, but I sure like the big lawsuit idea, along with an ad campaign explaining how much better it is to deal directly with your car's manufacturer, and showing off Tesla's "we don't want to make money on service" model. I think it would definitely boost demand - lots more people would realize they don't have to be locked into the current dealer model that they hate.
those are excellent counter arguments to my suggestion and do represent the biggest hurdle for that idea. I'm inappropriately linking Apple's own internal car projects that couple to this agreement and that piece is the biggest risk of this idea-
I also like Causalien's Solar City idea, although that may not have a strong demand production component. I'm sticking with Apple for now despite the long odds- same reason I stuck with Tesla from the start
- that's my story and I'm sticking to it whahahaha
Based on the context in which he said it, I don't think it will be a bigger battery. During the call he implied a bigger battery wouldn't be available until probably 2019. I also don't think it'll have to do with dealers or advertising, as the person had just asked him about ways he could drive up demand including involving dealers or using ads and he shot that down before mentioning his secret weapon.
There are some great ideas in this thread though. I'm currently voting for: kittens and underwater car, lol.
There are some great ideas in this thread though. I'm currently voting for: kittens and underwater car, lol.
SebastianR
Active Member
However, a lengthy court battle would drain resources (money and time you will never get back / which is dead and not productive at all) plus there is no guarantee that it would work and even if it would work it could take years.
In my eyes there are two things that could be at play here: either this is all one of Elon's slight exaggerations that will - once unveiled - lead to disappointment or this is something where we haven't thought big enough yet and we will all scratch our heads and say "why didn't we see this one coming?".
Another idea along the lines of an effective lawsuit would be if they discovered/constructed some kind of loophole that would allow sales everywhere in the US.
I feel a "infinite free service" announcement could do something to unleash demand and would deal a blow to the dealers but also have a world-wide effect (let's remember that the US is not everything and they need to boost demand in China/EU, too). But I'm not sure if that's really enough to do something significant about demand. So far I'm not yet happy with any idea we heard here, yet.
Forty Creek
Member
jvonbokel
John VonBokel
While I like the idea of some sort of extended test drives or rentals, I don't see that as terribly feasible*. I think Subhuman is more on the mark.
Reducing the cost of service and/or enhancing the warranty would both boost demand by assuaging fears people have about the new technology, and counter many of the arguments made by dealers.
When I say enhancing the warranty, that could mean extending the length, or it could also be some sort new (secret) warranty component, such as a battery degradation guarantee. With some 60,000 or so Model S on the roads now, and probably several thousand of those at or above 50k miles (including mine), they are probably getting some very good real-world data on expected battery degradation rates.
Also, as they roll out more service centers, and existing service technicians gain experience, they are probably seeing existing warranty costs go down. Not to mention as JB said in response to the motor replacement question on the call, they're continuing to refine design & production in order to further reduce the number of warranty repairs/replacements going forward.
*The reason I see it that way is because of the discounts they're applying for age/mileage on demo/loaner cars. So the exception to that would be if they adjust those numbers based on actual residual values, which Elon said are winding up well above their guarantee. If they can solve that issue, then I could see test drives or rentals as a way to get potential buyers behind the wheel in states where direct sales are not currently legal. Previously Elon has been quoted as saying that 25% of test drives translate into sales, which is a high rate relative to the industry as a whole, so getting people behind the wheel in those states would both increase sales demand and be a weapon against dealers.
Reducing the cost of service and/or enhancing the warranty would both boost demand by assuaging fears people have about the new technology, and counter many of the arguments made by dealers.
When I say enhancing the warranty, that could mean extending the length, or it could also be some sort new (secret) warranty component, such as a battery degradation guarantee. With some 60,000 or so Model S on the roads now, and probably several thousand of those at or above 50k miles (including mine), they are probably getting some very good real-world data on expected battery degradation rates.
Also, as they roll out more service centers, and existing service technicians gain experience, they are probably seeing existing warranty costs go down. Not to mention as JB said in response to the motor replacement question on the call, they're continuing to refine design & production in order to further reduce the number of warranty repairs/replacements going forward.
*The reason I see it that way is because of the discounts they're applying for age/mileage on demo/loaner cars. So the exception to that would be if they adjust those numbers based on actual residual values, which Elon said are winding up well above their guarantee. If they can solve that issue, then I could see test drives or rentals as a way to get potential buyers behind the wheel in states where direct sales are not currently legal. Previously Elon has been quoted as saying that 25% of test drives translate into sales, which is a high rate relative to the industry as a whole, so getting people behind the wheel in those states would both increase sales demand and be a weapon against dealers.
That would be a pretty sweet deal for LEAF owners. For $13K, I would buy that package today! I could then wait a couple of years longer before buying an actual Tesla vehicle, though eventually I'd still want a Model X for the extra room and AWD.
I'm not sure that Tesla Motors would want to get involved in the market for aftermarket upgrades of third party vehicles, though. If they did, then perhaps they could also upgrade the Plug-in Prius as well as the regular Prius to support more electric driving. That market could be much larger.
Tie in "infinite free service/warranty" with an insurance program to nip the concern about costly aluminum body repairs driving insurance rates up.
jvonbokel
John VonBokel
I think this is spot on. We don't have a good track record for reading Elon's mind.
If this were the case, I don't see why they would wait any longer to deal that blow to the dealers, not when they're currently having to fight legal/legislative battles with multiple states regarding the right to sell directly.
If I were a betting man, this is where I'd be putting my money. Good point about it being worldwide as well. As an American, all too often I don't think of that.
igotzzoom
Active Member
I've always thought Tesla had a pretty strong case under the Interstate Commerce Clause. I think the franchised dealers know in their heart of hearts that it's just a matter of time until their protected status evaporates. Their recent publicity campaigns reek of desperation.
I don't think Tesla could do anything like that without Nissan's cooperation. I haven't seen any signs of Nissan having any interest in working directly with Tesla. Also, I think manufacturers tend to be focused on whatever can sell new cars, and have little interest in going back and upgrading used cars, particularly one from another manufacturer. To me it seems an unlikely scenario.
Newscutter
Member
I like freebies as much as the next guy -- but there would be HUGE implications for announcing such a program.
--Service plans already bought?
--Retroactive application?
--Customer expenses already paid?
And that's just getting started. While it could certainly be argued that we bought the cars and should make peace with the terms of our agreements, the truth is we know the Tesla owner crowd would scream bloody murder if any such announcement was not accompanied by full refunds (of the service plans) and universal retroactive application.
If Tesla resisted, there would be an overnight glut of used Model S available as anyone with the ability to would take the hint and upgrade to an eligible new car-- which would be disastrous for the "guaranteed value" cars Tesla leased (among others).
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