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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


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Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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You are probably the first in a new group of the “HW4 Chuck Cooks” of the world. Essentially, they seem to be starting a new group that goes along with the OG YouTubers, only this time they need people with HW4 to test it on early.

Isn’t it also very strange that Tesla themselves have never once mentioned the fact that HW4 even exists? Strange indeed. Are we sure ourselves that what we are seeing now is HW4?
That’s because they want everyone to keep buying HW3 cars until they can make all HW4 cars…. At the end of the day, it’s all about making money.
 
So I just got a brand new Model X today (first Tesla) and I updated the software accidentally to 2023.12.5. Do I just need to wait until the FSD beta catches up? Should I stop paying for the FSD subscription till there is confirmation that the version has caught up to non-FSD beta? Also, wanted to see if anyone knows if PF386XXX for VIN means I have HW4. I was doing some research and it seems likely but hoping I do! Looking forward to joining the community!
 
It still can't even get speed limits right.... see Chucks video right above here where it repeatedly tried dropping well below the posted limit on highways... and you think they can get it to know and correctly apply all the myriad different conditions for using an HOV lane that vary not just by state, but by different occupancy standards, different roads, different times, different days of the week, and sometimes aren't even the same on the same road in different places- and sometimes depend on if your car has a given sticker, license plate, or transponder? That seems the opposite of simple.




Why? Use of HOV lanes is not required for FSD at all
FSD, it’s so great we want your drives to take longer by having you and your passengers sit in traffic while the carpool lane is wide open!
 
Anyone else have difficulty with low sun shining in front cameras? Car slows down a lot and could not keep between the lines even. Now warning what so ever. Almost went off the road if I had not intervened.
I travel due West every day around sunset (depending upon the time of year) and rarely is there helpful cloud cover here in AZ.

To me, there's no question that low sun into the front cameras creates significant problems. In my case, I find that the car gives a warning message and sometimes it disengages FSD.

Compounding the problem is that we have a fairly dusty environment, but I'd say that almost every region has its sorces of grime, pollen dust, precipitation or whatever that can dirty up the windshield and amplify the glare. It's a good idea to do a couple of wash/wipe cycles and not just wait for FSD to decide that for itself. (Thankfully, they seem to have largely eliminated the dry wipe syndrome that I hated, and that would promote permanent scratching and hazing of the windshield.)

It's clear that the cameras do a better job of rejecting unshadowed sun glare then we humans can. However, even considering that, and with attention paid to windshield cleaning, the direct and low-to-moderately-low sun angle is definitely a problem.

I'm sure that Tesla has done work on this, and I've been cogitating on various kinds of engineering mitigations that Tesla could potentially adopt, as well as a couple of possible aftermarket solutions - I invite some Teslans to contact me but I'm not holding my breath :). It will be interesting to see if the HW4 cameras deal with this any better, but I haven't heard any claims to that effect.
 
11.4.1 cuts it really close wrt pedestrians...


And also here where the pedestrian yells at 11.4.1:

Disappointing. This is an issue I’ve had on 11.3.6, where I always disengage and report. Another issue I’ve had, in certain conditions, my car will follow a cyclist, as if it’s another car, and not move over to pass them. This is on a road with no other traffic, so it’s not like it’s waiting for it to be clear to pass, it just drafts the cyclist.
 
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It still can't even get speed limits right....
11.3.6 seems to be significantly worse with speed limit signs. It seems like they took away most of the use of map data and the cameras are about 50% at catching the signs and reacting accordingly.
Anyone else have difficulty with low sun shining in front cameras? Car slows down a lot and could not keep between the lines even. Now warning what so ever. Almost went off the road if I had not intervened.
I don't have a ton of experience with this situation in 11.3.6 but in past versions my car has actually done quite well - as good or better than I could. Of course it's all dependent on how much glare there is, how clean/dirty the cameras are, etc. just like a human, if it can't see it can't drive.
 
Anyone else have difficulty with low sun shining in front cameras? Car slows down a lot and could not keep between the lines even. Now warning what so ever. Almost went off the road if I had not intervened.
I suspect the new higher quality/resolution HW4 cameras will work much better in these blinding situations than the original cameras. Time will tell.
 
Anyone else have difficulty with low sun shining in front cameras? Car slows down a lot and could not keep between the lines even. Now warning what so ever. Almost went off the road if I had not intervened.
Yup. I drive east in the morning on the way to work, it constantly slows down and refuses to drive the set speed. Hasn’t disengaged yet, just won’t drive the set speed so I end up having to disengage.

Might be partly because it always misses the speed limit sign where it transitions to rural highway so I have to manually roll it up, and it thinks I’m trying to speed by a large amount. It’s like the car is saying, no I won’t let you speed when I can’t see. But we aren’t speeding. I suspect a lot of my speed / braking issues may be related to poor speed sign reading.
 
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Well, I for one trust and prefer nothing. Nothing is one of my greatest talents, I do it a lot. I'm good at nothing. And I like to think the feeling is mutual. That nothing benefits from my presence. I have, indeed, often been told I'm good for nothing. In that, I take some measure of pride.
 
11.3.6 seems to be significantly worse with speed limit signs. It seems like they took away most of the use of map data and the cameras are about 50% at catching the signs and reacting accordingly.

I don't have a ton of experience with this situation in 11.3.6 but in past versions my car has actually done quite well - as good or better than I could. Of course it's all dependent on how much glare there is, how clean/dirty the cameras are, etc. just like a human, if it can't see it can't drive.
The map data speed is wrong for a portion of my commute so I just hope it sets at 45 as it should be 35 and manual adjustment EVERY SINGLE TIME!!
 
I meant in general, not EV only. But do tell as I do not follow any other EV companies. Anyone else out there selling snake oil?
Well, you joke but I hear the snake oil industry is revving up, and doing quite well, thank you. Very popular in Red States. Fox News just did a whole one-hour mind-your-own opinion piece about the planned Texas snake oil pipeline..........