FSD Beta v11.x

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

Knightshade said:
$200/mo that could let you entirely eliminate owning a second or third car for example if it can be remotely sent places or remotely summoned... could take your kids to/from school and sports events and friends houses and the movies and anywhere else without you needing to drive them or pick them up OR worry about your teen driving themselves and crashing... -- not to mention folks being able to go out for an evening and drink without concern for getting home safely, or enable your car to drive you while you sleep on a long trip?

Mind you- I don't think current HW is actually capable of it-- but if it were it'd be a massive driver of Tesla revenue even before you got to ridesharing.

Let me rephrase it - again when you read you have to see the Forrest for the trees.

FSD without a driver in the driver seat has plenty of value proposition and 15k may even be cheap. Until that day comes, as a driver assistance feature, FSD will never have a high take rate at current pricing and will further plummet as Tesla skews their fleet to a more mass market cheap EV over their next generation.

kabin · May 17, 2023

aronth5 said:
I wonder how many Tesla owners actually want to use FSD to make money using Robotaxi? I suspect the percentage is extremely small. Maybe 1-3%. The overwhelming value of FSD has nothing to do with Robotaxi. Potential Robotaxi fleet owners have an interest but that's about it.

Not many would opt in. This is the first time I heard TSLA has contract terms requiring the robotaxi owner to give up a substantial portion of any earnings. Just another nail in the TSLA robotaxi coffin.

And playing long with this magical thinking. A robotaxi running 5x more hours per day/week will likely wear out 5x quicker so one would need to buy 5x more vehicles in the same time frame. And commercial use increases user fees and insurance costs if one can even get the insurance. Sounds like another Elon wet dream.

I agree with one thing Elon said yesterday. Ideas are trivial.

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

kabin said:
Not many would opt in. This is the first time I heard TSLA has contract terms requiring the robotaxi owner to give up a substantial portion of any earnings. Just another nail in the TSLA robotaxi coffin.

And playing long with this magical thinking. A robotaxi running 5x more hours per day/week will likely wear out 5x quicker so one would need to buy 5x more vehicles in the same time frame. And commercial use increases user fees and insurance costs if one can even get the insurance. Sounds like another Elon wet dream.

I agree with one thing Elon said yesterday. Ideas are trivial.

I know I wouldn't robotaxi mine to strangers. But ridesharing friends and family around or sending my car to pick up friends, or even fractional ownership of a fleet of Tesla's that pick you up when you need to go somewhere with minimal wait, is where the value truly is at. Individuals using their car for an actual taxi service is nonsense honestly, and gets into becoming your own business owner.

But again, I would have to ask myself... is that really worth $200/mo? That's 10 hours of fair wage driving labor. I could hire a driver for 10 hours. Maybe an app based driver for hire service is a better business model xD. Then they can drive you around in any car you have. Or just Uber LOL.

kabin · May 17, 2023

powertoold said:
During the Tesla SHM today, Elon basically defined his meaning of achieving FSD: human level safety without any supervision.

Sounds like Elon lowered the bar a bit yesterday. In the past he's said FSD already is safer than a human. I was surprised he even acknowledged the punch line quality of his FSD predictions.

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

kabin said:
Sounds like Elon lowered the bar a bit yesterday. In the past he's said FSD already is safer than a human. I was surprised he even acknowledged the punch line quality of his FSD predictions.

Yeah, FSD Beta is obviously only safer when humans are there to monitor it closely. If we all let FSD beta drive around without a driver I'd be willing to bet it would crash or cause a crash way higher than the average human currently.

Knightshade · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
Let me rephrase it - again when you read you have to see the Forrest for the trees.

FSD without a driver in the driver seat has plenty of value proposition and 15k may even be cheap. Until that day comes, as a driver assistance feature, FSD will never have a high take rate at current pricing and will further plummet as Tesla skews their fleet to a more mass market cheap EV over their next generation.

Ok, but that's not what you actually said originally... which was

you said:
Logically speaking, FSD has to allow paid ride sharing to increase the value of the car.

THAT I strongly disagree with- and it appears you've dialed back your claim now to just be it has to be able to operate L4 or higher at all to significantly increase value-- which was what I agreed with originally. You don't need commercialization of that to be a massive value driver though.

sleepydoc · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
That is ridesharing and robotaxi. With your example you gave, there is material financial value to the car not needing a Driver.

That is the value of FSD, however, in it's current state it has not yet come to fruition nor is there a clear path to that reality.

You're not disagreeing with me, you're restating the value proposition of FSD.

No - sharing a vehicle within a family is markedly different from using it commercially. I could drive to work, then send the car home so it was still available. likewise, if my kid needs to be picked up after school and I'm still at work the car could do it.

sleepydoc · May 17, 2023

uscbucsfan said:
This is incorrect.

Yes, city driving provides different and more difficult tasks, but highway driving being on Beta instead of NoA still trains and provides useful information to add to the NN. Think about all of the edge cases that still take place on the interstate...it's crazy to say that's not useful.

Do you think any ADAS company will separate the two? no, because that's ridiculous.

You're making up stuff to disagree with. I never said beta wasn't providing useful information, nor did I claim ADAS companies will separate them (although Tesla has up until now and MB definitely has.)

uscbucsfan · May 17, 2023

sleepydoc said:
You're making up stuff to disagree with. I never said beta wasn't providing useful information, nor did I claim ADAS companies will separate them (although Tesla has up until now and MB definitely has.)

1. Tesla never had FSD on the Interstate, so it's relevant they combine them.
2. Mercedes doesn't have ADAS on city streets.

Do you think Waymo or Cruise will separate them when they integrate interstate driving which is imminent according to Diplomat?

Why would they? It's relevant to total miles and miles without disengagement. If it's not a different stack, it's using the same logic and still dealing with complexities of each. It made sense to separate them when the highway/interstate was using AP instead of FSD, but not anymore.

It's just a dumb point to harp on.

Ramphex · May 17, 2023

I like the debate of ridesharing vs sharing a ride. I want to see more!

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

Knightshade said:
Ok, but that's not what you actually said originally... which was

"Logically speaking, FSD has to allow paid ride sharing to increase the value of the car."

THAT I strongly disagree with- and it appears you've dialed back your claim now to just be it has to be able to operate L4 or higher at all to significantly increase value-- which was what I agreed with originally. You don't need commercialization of that to be a massive value driver though.

Yeah it seemed like you misunderstood my post, which was solely about driverless operations of FSD.

So just so I understand you correctly, you would gladly pay $200 per month for the car to be able to drive your wife and family or go anywhere without an actual driver? So would that be $400 per month if you include your vehicle and your wife's?

Lets dive into some deep thinking here-
For the average American family, and including my case, there is no way to get around needing at minimum two vehicles in your household. Majority of all households have two or more vehicles. I use my vehicle on average 7 hours per week. My wife uses hers 4 hours per week. There is no scenario that me or her could think of other than a road trip, where we feel spending $200 on car autonomy makes sense. And even that was being generous.

Ok well what about if we can get rid of a vehicle and just use one? Well if my car drives me to work and then goes and drives her to work, not only am I putting on roughly 3x the miles I normally would on our vehicle (having to pay for the empty legs the car isn't moving a person), but our schedules would have to be indifferent enough to allow for the use of one vehicle, which isn't the case since we work similar hours.

So essentially for our Monday - Friday work week, we wouldn't reasonably use FSD for the cost. Our once every few month road trip would somewhat make sense, but even then, $200 is quite a stretch for us considering we won't be doing anything of value in the car - It's not like FSD is gaining me more time to do work on a road trip vacation.

Also, we both agree we wouldn't want strangers in our cars. We don't want the added headache of having to start a ridesharing business and going the extra mile to clean the car, pay for the insurance, etc. that would come along with using our FSD Tesla for robotaxi.

So again, for the average American, FSD offers no substantial benefit to my wife or my life that would justify us spending the $200 other than the cool/wow factor that would quickly wear off. You have to remember most American's live paycheck to paycheck, and think exactly like I do. I'm not going to waste $200/month on a feature that offers virtually no value to my life other than the occasional road trip.

EVNow · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
So again, for the average American, FSD offers no substantial benefit to my wife or my life that would justify us spending the $200 other than the cool/wow factor that would quickly wear off.

I would believe you ... except for this.

~~2018 Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor~~
2023 Model X White 5 Seat 20" rims

Are you telling me you bought a $100k car - but are worried about < $10 a day if it frees you up from having to drive ?

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

EVNow said:
I would believe you ... except for this.

Are you telling me you bought a $100k car - but are worried about < $10 a day if it frees you up from having to drive ?

So now because I bought a 100k car you think I can afford an extra $200 a month for FSD? If you apply that logic to anything, well then, why didn't I just get a Plaid for only a $50 per month increase in payment?

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

sleepydoc said:
No - sharing a vehicle within a family is markedly different from using it commercially. I could drive to work, then send the car home so it was still available. likewise, if my kid needs to be picked up after school and I'm still at work the car could do it.

How old are your kids? I asked my wife, would you allow a fully autonomous vehicle that is much safer than us driving drive our kid home from school? And the answer was no, unless maybe he was like 12 or older. And even then, it was, well I like to be in control.

Most mom's like to be in control and think they know what is best for their kids. This idea that Mom's all over the country are going to allow their kids to be picked up autonomously is just silly. If the child is younger, you obviously can't pick them up without human supervision.

And then when I told her what it cost, my wife really was against it.

When we critically dive deep into our own lives and use case scenarios, FSD is really only a cool party trick that we will use occasionally without an actual driver behind the wheel.

Yelobird · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
Yeah it seemed like you misunderstood my post, which was solely about driverless operations of FSD.

So just so I understand you correctly, you would gladly pay $200 per month for the car to be able to drive your wife and family or go anywhere without an actual driver? So would that be $400 per month if you include your vehicle and your wife's?

Lets dive into some deep thinking here-
For the average American family, and including my case, there is no way to get around needing at minimum two vehicles in your household. Majority of all households have two or more vehicles. I use my vehicle on average 7 hours per week. My wife uses hers 4 hours per week. There is no scenario that me or her could think of other than a road trip, where we feel spending $200 on car autonomy makes sense. And even that was being generous.

Ok well what about if we can get rid of a vehicle and just use one? Well if my car drives me to work and then goes and drives her to work, not only am I putting on roughly 3x the miles I normally would on our vehicle (having to pay for the empty legs the car isn't moving a person), but our schedules would have to be indifferent enough to allow for the use of one vehicle, which isn't the case since we work similar hours.

So essentially for our Monday - Friday work week, we wouldn't reasonably use FSD for the cost. Our once every few month road trip would somewhat make sense, but even then, $200 is quite a stretch for us considering we won't be doing anything of value in the car - It's not like FSD is gaining me more time to do work on a road trip vacation.

Also, we both agree we wouldn't want strangers in our cars. We don't want the added headache of having to start a ridesharing business and going the extra mile to clean the car, pay for the insurance, etc. that would come along with using our FSD Tesla for robotaxi.

So again, for the average American, FSD offers no substantial benefit to my wife or my life that would justify us spending the $200 other than the cool/wow factor that would quickly wear off. You have to remember most American's live paycheck to paycheck, and think exactly like I do. I'm not going to waste $200/month on a feature that offers virtually no value to my life other than the occasional road trip.

If the justification was solely based on You and Now sure. How about if you or a family member had a disability? How about several years from now when you get older and your freedom to Safely do simple travel pleasures are in question or possibly dangerous? Your parents, others? What makes sense to you and your use case now is irrelevant to the world demographic or use case. I would Gladly pay 200$ per month to allow my disabled grandchild (true) the freedom to enjoy a life outside of a house. Same for my aging parents. Some plans don’t require economic sense to be valuable to others.

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

Yelobird said:
If the justification was solely based on You and Now sure. How about if you ora family member had a disability? How about several years from now when you get older and your freedom to Safely do simple travel pleasures are in question or possibly dangerous? Your parents, others? What makes sense to you and your use case now is irrelevant to the world demographic or use case. I would Gladly pay 200$ per month to allow my disabled grandchild (true) the freedom to enjoy a life outside of a house. Same for my aging parents. Some plans don’t require economic sense to be valuable to others.

Well that is fair, so go ask your grandparents or you grandchild would they use the service for $200 per month? That's all I had to do to get my Wife to give me a resounding no.

EVNow · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
So now because I bought a 100k car you think I can afford an extra $200 a month for FSD? If you apply that logic to anything, well then, why didn't I just get a Plaid for only a $50 per month increase in payment?

Both good questions

If I had $1k budget per month that could either get me an X without actual FSD or Y + FSD - I'd undoubtedly choose Y + FSD. I'd argue, so would most people.

Most people didn't know they needed a $1k phone, either - BTW

ps : Tesla can do all kinds of things - like include FSD in premium cars, give free FSD for a few months to generate demand etc. The possibilities are endless. Ofcourse, they still need to ~~go to Mars~~ crack FSD before starting to make plans.

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

EVNow said:
Both good questions If I had $1k "budget" per month that could either get me an X without actual FSD or Y + FSD - I'd undoubtedly choose Y + FSD. I'd argue, so would most people.

Most people didn't know they needed a $1k phone, either - BTW

Good point, and I certainly could see that as a possibility in the distant future where we justify the cost. But just think about your own use case, and your own life, and then think about the average American. For the average person, we get tremendous value out of a cell phone. So much so that I would pay $5k for a cell phone if I had to.

I just don't ever see the value out of an autonomous vehicle in my own life that justifies a $15,000 expense. It is honestly too much money for majority of Americans. Isn't the take rate on FSD 10% or so? That is about right considering.

Yelobird · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
Well that is fair, so go ask your grandparents or you grandchild would they use the service for $200 per month? That's all I had to do to get my Wife to give me a resounding no.

Absolutely and not even a question. Try asking someone who can’t physically drive what they would pay/do for freedom to venture out freely.

Yelobird · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
Good point, and I certainly could see that as a possibility in the distant future where we justify the cost. But just think about your own use case, and your own life, and then think about the average American. For the average person, we get tremendous value out of a cell phone. So much so that I would pay $5k for a cell phone if I had to.

I just don't ever see the value out of an autonomous vehicle in my own life that justifies a $15,000 expense. It is honestly too much money for majority of Americans. Isn't the take rate on FSD 10% or so? That is about right considering.

Lol. You would justify 5k for a goofy phone but you see no value in safe transportation for people with disability or the elderly. Lol

FSD Beta v11.x

Member

Active Member

Member

Active Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Active Member

Pre-re-re-refresh MS Owner

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Active Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Active Member

Active Member

Similar threads