FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[aronth5]

I'm surprised there has been so little discussion on the value of being in the car but able to text, read, watch a video or do other non driving activities. that would certainly be a major improvement for many and should be much easier for FSD to support technically then the complications associated with robotaxi and ride sharing.

 

[MARKM3]

I'm surprised there has been so little discussion on the value of being in the car but able to text, read, watch a video or do other non driving activities. that would certainly be a major improvement for many and should be much easier for FSD to support technically then the complications associated with robotaxi and ride sharing.

But the argument is two fold - you spend so little time in your car, as Elon stated. Why spend such a large amount of your annual income on a feature that you will only use for maybe up to 10 hours of your entire life weekly?

You can already voice to text. You can already conduct phone calls. You can already briefly read emails as notifications pop up. Is taking your attention off the road and looking at your phone or reading a book in the car really worth $15,000 to you?

I'd like to see non commercial use FSD go for $2-3k.

 

[SSDTester#1]

I'm surprised there has been so little discussion on the value of being in the car but able to text, read, watch a video or do other non driving activities. that would certainly be a major improvement for many and should be much easier for FSD to support technically then the complications associated with robotaxi and ride sharing.

But you can’t do that right now. Despite Tesla’s video from 4 years ago. And at the rate it’s going, I’ll be surprised if you’ll be able to do that in the next 4 years.

 

[Knightshade]

But the argument is two fold - you spend so little time in your car,

Weren't you just telling us how it's the people with 30-60 minute commutes that would not get value out of it.... now nobody spends much time in their car?

Which is it?

Why spend such a large amount of your annual income

You think $2400 ($200/mo times 12 months) is a large amount of the income of people buying 40k to 120k cars?

on a feature that you will only use for maybe up to 10 hours of your entire life weekly?

At $50 a week for FSD subscription, if get back 10 hours a week in freed up time to do other things, you'd only need to earn $5.01 an hour for that to be profitable.

I don't suspect many people making less than that buy Teslas.

Time is your total capital, and the minutes of your life are painfully few. Anything that gets it back for you from mundane tasks to do more interesting things is of quite high value.

 

[SSDTester#1]

I love these hypothetical situations of what one day FSD might allow you to do for it’s current price.

 

[LSDTester#1]

I'm surprised there has been so little discussion on the value of being in the car but able to text, read, watch a video or do other non driving activities. that would certainly be a major improvement for many and should be much easier for FSD to support technically then the complications associated with robotaxi and ride sharing.

Pretty much everybody in Orlando already does that and seems to value it. Putting makeup on while driving, FaceTime, watching videos, shaving, giving road head, GETTING road head, texting. You pretty much name it.

 

[SSDTester#1]

This 11.4.1 roll out is YUGE

 

[uscbucsfan]

This 11.4.1 roll out is YUGE

It's also basically version 12, but really 11.3.4.1

 

[aronth5]

But the argument is two fold - you spend so little time in your car, as Elon stated. Why spend such a large amount of your annual income on a feature that you will only use for maybe up to 10 hours of your entire life weekly?

You can already voice to text. You can already conduct phone calls. You can already briefly read emails as notifications pop up. Is taking your attention off the road and looking at your phone or reading a book in the car really worth $15,000 to you?

I'd like to see non commercial use FSD go for $2-3k.

I never said it was worth $15k just that the capability would be nice.
I drive a 2 hour round trip every week and wouldn't it be nice if Tesla allowed the display to be used for Netfix etc without the concern a state trooper would pull me over on the highway. You'd be surprised how long some people are in their cars for weekend trips or simply sitting in traffic and hour plus each day. And with the push to have people go back to the office car time will only increase.

 

[Dewg]

Hahahahaha
< $0.10 per kWh electric rates?!?

I'm at $0.38 per kWh. That's just over $30 to fill "the tank". Still better than $80 to fill a 16 gallon tank at $5/gallon.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Hahahahaha
< $0.10 per kWh electric rates?!?

I'm at $0.38 per kWh. That's just over $30 to fill "the tank". Still better than $80 to fill a 16 gallon tank at $5/gallon.

Are you in California?

That's terrible.

 

[jebinc]

The junk is not convenient. Not today. Maybe one day, but not today. It requires more effort and supervision than manual driving.

That.
It.
Does.

 

[SSDTester#1]

Are you in California?

That's terrible.

I was recently in San Diego….. 0/10 would not bang

 

[jebinc]

But you can’t do that right now. Despite Tesla’s video from 4 years ago. And at the rate it’s going, I’ll be surprised if you’ll be able to do that in the next 4 years.

News Flash That video from four years ago was not real. It was a fake. A fake orchestrated by the Charlatan.

 

[Knightshade]

News Flash That video from four years ago was not real. It was a fake. A fake orchestrated by the Charlatan.

That is not at all true.

There WAS a faked FSD video but it was 7 years ago, in 2016.

The 2019 (4 years ago) video was real.

Both confirmable by the CA DMV disengagement reports (and doubly so the court testimony on the 2016 one).

Citation:

Tesla had 4 self-driving Model X prototypes last year and drove over 500 autonomous miles on public roads

While Tesla has now thousands of vehicles equipped with its latest Autopilot hardware on the road today, only a few...

electrek.co

2016- 550 miles autonomous, 4 different vehicles, 168 disengagements.

They had to drive that much to get enough in-between-disengagements clips to edit together for the single faked 2016 video.


Versus

Tesla reports fully autonomous miles for first time in years, but it's nothing to get excited about

Tesla has reported some fully autonomous test miles for the first time in years in the California DMV disengagement report,...

electrek.co

2019- 12.2 miles autonomous, 1 single vehicle, 0 disengagements.

They did the whole video with 0 disengagements for the real 2019 video.

 

[jebinc]

That is not at all true.

There WAS a faked FSD video but it was 7 years ago, in 2016.

The 2019 (4 years ago) video was real.

Both confirmable by the CA DMV disengagement reports (and doubly so the court testimony on the 2016 one). It took over 500 miles of terrible results with tons of disengagements to get enough to edit together the 2016 fakery.... the 2019 one was done in a single 12.2 mile take with 0 disengagements.

My error, re the timing of the Charlatan’s fake video production and subsequent release.

 

[Twiglett]

This 11.4.1 roll out is YUGE

god help us - you just know that 11.420 is going to foisted upon us at any moment, even though its good enough to be V12
Then we'll have the interminable 11.420.1 through 999 just because EM thinks its a hip number.
Please
No...

 

[Knightshade]

I mean, I'm not suggesting Robotaxi tomorrow... (or ever with HW3)- but we can at least see actual, very significant, progress between the two videos

THAT said, the fact it's 4 years later from the "real" 0 disengagement video and they're still "eh, maybe next year" away from actually considering deploying anything at that operating level to actual customers is... not great.

 

[kabin]

News Flash That video from four years ago was not real. It was a fake. A fake orchestrated by the Charlatan.

Sounds like something Theranos would have done. Fake it until you make it.

 

[jebinc]

Sounds like something Theranos would have done. Fake it until you make it.

Heading to prison, she is…

P.S. And she never “made it”.