FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[rlsd]

I want to buy a Waymo to test myself now. I don't want to rely on others' hearsays.

 

[Yelobird]

So you are comparing actual Tesla FSD to some imagined version of Waymo that they dont actually deploy? Yeah, apples to oranges indeed!

As I've noted, Waymo can drive very well on a small subset of roads, Tesla can drive moderately well on pretty much any road. You cant argue that Waymo is inherently "better" because both systems currently have severe limitations, and you cannot supply any factual argument that one set of limitations is less significant than the other. You can prefer one approach over the other but anything else is pure speculation/bias.

Let me know when Waymo can drive from one city to another.

Your all arguing with an individual that currently doesn’t Own a Tesla Nor use FSD. His ASsumptions are based on YouTube. Not worth your time to debate honestly.

 

[MarcG]

I will bet anyone any amount of money that FSD won’t be autonomous L3+ with Tesla taking liability in any meaningful ODD by the end of 2025.

How do you define “meaningful ODD”?
Depending on the answer, I’d be willing to take that bet just for fun, even though I’m likely to lose it

 

[Tronguy]

Your all arguing with an individual that currently doesn’t Own a Tesla Nor use FSD. His ASsumptions are based on YouTube. Not worth your time to debate honestly.

Ah. So, an actual troll? "I'm making up a bunch of stuff based upon commonly-faked YouTube videos; let's see how much action I can get out of denizens of this part of the Internet" ?

Not that we don't have the slightly more disingenuous troll types around here. On the principle that "On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.", we probably have some posters around who lie about actually owning a Tesla and/or having FSD. It's not like signing up requires a notarized affidavit or anything.

It's kind of a general problem with any kind of social media that doesn't perform real user validation, which is most of them. Generally, one looks at the overall demeanor and speech of posters and, from that, slowly forms an opinion about whether a given poster seems real or not. Kind of like a Turing test, writ large.

 

[spacecoin]

Your all arguing with an individual that currently doesn’t Own a Tesla Nor use FSD. His ASsumptions are based on YouTube. Not worth your time to debate honestly.

I can post a picture from my Model X showing that I indeed bought FSD. Would that work for you? PM or here? I can write a nice message for you too

It would be nice with a convo that doesn't get to the "troll" and poor attempts at character assassination in five posts just because FSD deposn't work very well.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

How do you define “meaningful ODD”?
Depending on the answer, I’d be willing to take that bet just for fun, even though I’m likely to lose it

Probably he is thinking that perhaps liability for (actual) smart summon or something could be taken by Tesla but no idea.

Anyway I am sure that for any current production vehicles with current hardware, Tesla will never take liability in any ODD. Including summon or whatever.

Just can’t figure out how it could be possible. I’d love to see L3 happen but seems pretty clear it won’t, unfortunately.

Even if they WANTED to take liability I wouldn’t let them - would just be a transparent attempt to destroy my unicorn FUSC, and there is no such thing as someone else taking liability for damage to a vehicle you own (and any other damage), anyway. That’s like having someone fully insured to the max and 100% at fault total your vehicle - it’s just no good; time and money is lost. It’s not something you would sign up for.

 

[spacecoin]

How do you define “meaningful ODD”?
Depending on the answer, I’d be willing to take that bet just for fun, even though I’m likely to lose it

What about an L3 ODD optimal weather, dry highway at 60 mph OR in a downtown city streets context at the posted speed limit.

I can also do only Las Vegas Convention Center loop incl ingress/egress if we're talking L4 without a safety driver

By the end of 2025.

 

[bhakan]

So, a few weeks ago, here I was in my Tesla Model 3, 9/2018 vintage, RWD, LR. Tesla offered a deal to transfer the FSD to a new Tesla, so long as said Tesla was bought before 9/30/2023.

I bit. And, now I'm driving a slightly different Tesla, with FSD. M3, LR, but AWD now. Just turned the odometer over on 1500 miles after a trip from NJ to Boston and back.

By the way: 11.4.4 works fine. There were the usual (rare) disengagements; no problems with the windshield wipers, either on the way up (it was sunny) or the way back (rain/drizzle all the way). As 11.4.4 does, it does have issues with short on-ramps and off-ramps; but no running red lights with this guy. But the highway miles were excellent. On the Merritt, in particular, it would move in and out of the passing lanes sans problems. I at least partly blame the 2023 map update for some of the better behavior.

It actually did an pretty decent job getting onto the George Washington Bridge westbound from the Hudson parkway; in particular, in the three places where two lanes take off that-away, it properly placed itself in the correct lane (usually, not the restricted lane that had to turn), making the trip through there Not Bad on a Monday night.

As I've occasionally stated around here, I don't seem to have the problems that many of you appear to have with FSD. Maybe it's something about driving around in California or just Out West of here. But the squiggly, we-don't-believe-in-right-angle-roads-we're-colonials intersections doesn't seem to give FSD the fits. Either before the new car (on 11.4.7.2) or with it (on 11.4.4).

And, as you all must have noted, even with the trade-in, the $7500 fed tax credit, and NJ's contribution, I've put my money where my mouth is: On FSD.

Back to feeding the trick-or-treaters. There's a lot of dinosaurs out front these days.

Good to know that FSD is not bad on the traffic to Boston from NJ. I am planning a long trip around Nov10th from my DC area to Boston area and back. Last time when I went to Providence had issues on Merritt pkwy and NY bridges. We will see this time.
FSD is constantly shifting lanes in bumper to bumper on my frequent drives to Richmond and RTP area in NC. Entrance merge lanes and work zone merge lanes are horrible with FSD for me.

 

[kabin]

Ah. So, an actual troll? "I'm making up a bunch of stuff based upon commonly-faked YouTube videos; let's see how much action I can get out of denizens of this part of the Internet" ?

Not that we don't have the slightly more disingenuous troll types around here. On the principle that "On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.", we probably have some posters around who lie about actually owning a Tesla and/or having FSD. It's not like signing up requires a notarized affidavit or anything.

It's kind of a general problem with any kind of social media that doesn't perform real user validation, which is most of them. Generally, one looks at the overall demeanor and speech of posters and, from that, slowly forms an opinion about whether a given poster seems real or not. Kind of like a Turing test, writ large.

Yes, getting off topic and into a conspiracy theory is the distraction that refreshes.

 

[jebinc]

I can post a picture from my Model X showing that I indeed bought FSD. Would that work for you? PM or here? I can write a nice message for you too

It would be nice with a convo that doesn't get to the "troll" and poor attempts at character assassination in five posts just because FSD deposn't work very well.

And we all know FSDj (J for junk) does not work well or as advertised.

 

[aataskin]

Probably he is thinking that perhaps liability for (actual) smart summon or something could be taken by Tesla but no idea.

Anyway I am sure that for any current production vehicles with current hardware, Tesla will never take liability in any ODD. Including summon or whatever.

Just can’t figure out how it could be possible. I’d love to see L3 happen but seems pretty clear it won’t, unfortunately.

Even if they WANTED to take liability I wouldn’t let them - would just be a transparent attempt to destroy my unicorn FUSC, and there is no such thing as someone else taking liability for damage to a vehicle you own (and any other damage), anyway. That’s like having someone fully insured to the max and 100% at fault total your vehicle - it’s just no good; time and money is lost. It’s not something you would sign up for.

I think a more realistic scenario is insurance companies starting to offer policies where your no claim bonus is not affected if the car gets into an accident while in FSD mode. In fact, since Teslas FSD is 5 times safer than humans they should be doing it already. I guess there is currently no way to reliably know who was in command when an accident happened?

 

[MarcG]

What about an L3 ODD optimal weather, dry highway at 60 mph OR in a downtown city streets context at the posted speed limit.

I can also do only Las Vegas Convention Center loop incl ingress/egress if we're talking L4 without a safety driver

By the end of 2025.

Deal! I’ll bet you about $3.50

 

[EVNow]

Your all arguing with an individual that currently doesn’t Own a Tesla Nor use FSD. His ASsumptions are based on YouTube. Not worth your time to debate honestly.

Thats why the individual is on ignore list (I think I only have a couple).

 

[EVNow]

Anyway I am sure that for any current production vehicles with current hardware, Tesla will never take liability in any ODD. Including summon or whatever.

If and when FSD actually happens - Tesla will just insure the vehicle. They already have insurance anyway - so we would have to buy insurance or may be just part of the subscription we pay for FSD.

Yes, I doubt Tesla will ever take full liability on current vehicles - even though it would hurt Elon's ego to not do it.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

If and when FSD actually happens - Tesla will just insure the vehicle.

Sure. No matter how it is done it kind of sucks unless the car is extremely capable. I wouldn’t trust anything at low speed highways (L3 or whatever) unless it could do L4 city streets with performance way better than a human. It’s a similar problem difficulty, if you don’t want to get hit (not just avoid hitting others).

 

[drtimhill]

Your all arguing with an individual that currently doesn’t Own a Tesla Nor use FSD. His ASsumptions are based on YouTube. Not worth your time to debate honestly.

Understood and agreed, but others here in a similar situation reading this thread might benefit from hearing counter arguments.

 

[EVNow]

Sure. No matter how it is done it kind of sucks unless the car is extremely capable. I wouldn’t trust anything at low speed highways (L3 or whatever) unless it could do L4 city streets with performance way better than a human. It’s a similar problem difficulty, if you don’t want to get hit (not just avoid hitting others).

I don't think anyone in their right mind would take liability for a car that is orders of magnitude better than a human. Thats why I think the Mercedes "L3" is a bit ridiculous - though the ODD is so small and overall vehicle volume so low, they think they can manage the risk. I wouldn't trust that Mercedes "L3" with my life/limb either.

I think from safety POV Waymo is doing it right (probably because of the reputational risk and $$$$ involved). Any driverless car needs to have that kind of safety record atleast.

 

[drtimhill]

I can post a picture from my Model X showing that I indeed bought FSD. Would that work for you? PM or here? I can write a nice message for you too

It would be nice with a convo that doesn't get to the "troll" and poor attempts at character assassination in five posts just because FSD deposn't work very well.

Hmm and where are you based? Your profile says Europe, and FSD beta is not (yet) available there to the best of my knowledge.

 

[Therealm80]

I think I’m noticing a difference when they are supposedly testing the current software on version 12s neural net. I’ve noticed a few times that the car would actually creep from a stop at 1 mph versus waiting till zero but sometimes it will wait till zero.

 

[spacecoin]

Hmm and where are you based? Your profile says Europe, and FSD beta is not (yet) available there to the best of my knowledge.

I bought FSD in 2019.I have first hand experience with FSDb from this spring in the US if one needs that to have an opinion. I have also taken a Waymo.