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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Even after they've merged the 'released' version of FSD Beta into the main release branch, they're going to want to keep a beta program (EAP?) available to test and gradually roll out major new FSD Beta releases (such as v11). I can't see them ever getting to the point where they roll out a major FSDb update to all cars at the same time.

While we're on the subject - is EAP still a thing? It used to exist pre-FSDb for testing of new software releases. Haven't heard of it in years though.
V11 is just the next FSDb release. Everyone on FSD 10.69.x will be able to update.
It will probably depend on V11 number and the installation number you are on. Maybe by the time V11 comes out all of us are on the same number!!! That would be one way we can all get it at the same.time.
 
It will probably depend on V11 number and the installation number you are on. Maybe by the time V11 comes out all of us are on the same number!!! That would be one way we can all get it at the same.time.
I'm sure when they do release V11, all of will get it. Won't be some kind of base release number issue like non-FSD to FSD. I think people are mis-applying that problem to this scenario.
 
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I'm sure when they do release V11, all of will get it. Won't be some kind of base release number issue like non-FSD to FSD. I think people are mis-applying that problem to this scenario.
Could be a new trick for Elon.

ELON Tweet: V11 released today to all in 2021.53.69.420

Available to everyone BUT no-one can download it since everyone is ahead. 🤔 🤣 🤣
 
Whoah, just tried it out. That’s pretty cool. I know many of you have had v10 for a while but having the car drive itself on city streets for the first time is remarkable. With all the mixed and in some cases negative feedback from people with v10 beta I was worried that it would not meet my expectations. Granted it’s only been one drive, my initial impression is quite positive. It’s not V11 but for me I’ll take anything at this point since I’m a newbie here. Really good stuff, can’t wait to see V11.
Ok now that I’ve taken a few trips I can see why folks may be alittle irritated with the latest V10 FSD beta. A few observations below.

1) When at a stop sign making a turn( even if chill mode) the car does these Jack rabbit type starts. Seems overkill and makes me alittle Uncomfortable.

2) lane selection(and the timing of changing lanes) is not great. In fact I’ve missed turns because the car is in the furthest lane away and waits to the last second to try and correct which leads me to disengage FSDb. This happens very frequently. The car also likes to change lanes when cars are approaching from behind at a faster speed. Instead of waiting for the car to pass I basically cut them off. I think these lame changing/selection issues are also compounded by the level of traffic.

3) Do the NOA settings apply to FSDb? I have NOA set to “Mild” so it minimizes lane changes but I don’t think NOA config applies to FSD. Can someone confirm this?

4) the car will brake for no obvious reason. This happened to me today and the car behind me luckily stopped before rear ending me. This event was the most concerning.

5) when leaving a grocery store parking lot the car had issues making turns. It would stop, sporadically turn wheel, start up again, sporadically turn the wheel and so on. I’m sure the people behind thought I must have been alittle cray cray. I did not intervene but not sure I would consider this experience very good.

So the big question for me is Does v11 address any of these issues?
 
5) when leaving a grocery store parking lot the car had issues making turns. It would stop, sporadically turn wheel, start up again, sporadically turn the wheel and so on. I’m sure the people behind thought I must have been alittle cray cray. I did not intervene but not sure I would consider this experience very good.

So the big question for me is Does v11 address any of these issues?

25.1 is not advertised to handle parking lots yet.

As for V11 being our savior, I'd keep the expectations low. Elon hasn't said anything about a quantum leap or step change wrt V11, so I'm thinking it's more of the same (incremental improvement).
 
So the big question for me is Does v11 address any of these issues?
No one knows but my guess is no. The problems you describe have been around for at least 6 months.

Though I don’t know anything about jackrabbit starts, maybe it can be jerky on starts at times. Relatively rare though. But certainly not fast starts. Could have high jerk, but low overall acceleration.

Overall FSD struggles to start, stop, and turn. The turning is a LOT better than it was a year ago. But decision making with deciding when to go can still result in a lot of herky herky as you describe.

Going and stopping are some of the hardest problems to solve though it seems.
 
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25.1 is not advertised to handle parking lots yet.

As for V11 being our savior, I'd keep the expectations low. Elon hasn't said anything about a quantum leap or step change wrt V11, so I'm thinking it's more of the same (incremental improvement).

I'm hoping it replaces production Autopilot for highway and add Actually Smart Summon. I don't think there is a huge step in the actual driving for regular FSD, it's just another update.
 
But decision making with deciding when to go can still result in a lot of herky herky as you describe.

It seems to me that there's some 2-3 second delay with certain decisions. This causes awkward and dangerous situations like stopping in the middle of the road or proceeding slowly on a roundabout / an unprotected right when the light already turned green.
 

Maybe not too surprising as they were trying to get it ready for release by end of last year?

Getting V11 to work predictably and never erratically on all US highways is immensely difficult. The team is 1.5 years late at this point.

Are they ever going to solve all the edge cases such that the performance is on par or better vs NoA? I guess eventually they will solve all the edge cases (with the data engine), but I wonder if training for all the edge cases can be distilled on a model small enough to fit within HW3 compute limits.

Elon's silence on this of late isn't promising.
 
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Getting V11 to work predictably and never erratically on all US highways is immensely difficult. The team is 1.5 years late at this point.

Are they ever going to solve all the edge cases such that the performance is on par or better vs NoA? I guess eventually they will solve all the edge cases (with the data engine), but I wonder if training for all the edge cases can be distilled on a model small enough to fit within HW3 compute limits.

Elon's silence on this of late isn't promising.
The silence is actually deafening!
 
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No one knows but my guess is no. The problems you describe have been around for at least 6 months.

Though I don’t know anything about jackrabbit starts, maybe it can be jerky on starts at times. Relatively rare though. But certainly not fast starts. Could have high jerk, but low overal acceleration.

Overall FSD struggles to start, stop, and turn. The turning is a LOT better than it was a year ago. But decision making with deciding when to go can still result in a lot of herky herky as you describe.

Going and stopping are some of the hardest problems to solve though it seems.
Thanks for the reply.
The silence is actually deafening!
II wouldn't read too much into his silence. this is typical narcissistic behavior. when confronted with the possibility of being wrong, a narcissist will either double down or remain completely silent. Is really no other option for him other than to be silent.

don't get me wrong, I like the guy. but like most genius Minds he is a narcissist
 
Are they ever going to solve all the edge cases such that the performance is on par or better vs NoA?
One hope is that FSD Beta on interstates forces Tesla to make single stack smoother everywhere. Tesla's approach has been to find general solutions, but as you point out, they're getting into compute constraints, so the "luxury" of a holistic solution could be out of scope with the current hardware.

One thing I'll try to test with single stack is if there's any indication of being able to "fall back" to legacy Autopilot stack. If it's completely removed, maybe that extra bit of compute was needed for FSD Beta 11.