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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Well, they probably aren’t rolling this out “wide” yet until they fix the issues on the highway.

Right off of jump street, I have not had the car exit the passing lane yet on any of the settings (chill, avg, assertive). NYS (as I’m sure other states) has a “slower traffic keep right” “law”. While some idiots still hang in the passing lane doing 5mph under the speed limit, the law states you’re supposed to move over. V11.3.2 doesn’t do this.

Like I’ve said before, it uses all of the on ramp and merges at the last second. It really should try to merge as soon as there is room to do so.

In addition, the “moving out of right most lane” or “far right lane” often puts you in the incorrect lane for an upcoming merge, and since it doesn’t move out of the passing lane, it makes for an awkward transition into the next merge.

There is no following distance adjustment anymore, it’s just the three profiles you have to choose from, and honestly, the following distance I don’t think even changes. No complaints about the following distance, it seems just fine, just an observation.

I will say, city driving is improved where it’s not a nerve racking experience anymore. Unmarked rural roads seem better too.

If they fixed a few issues on the highway, or at least added the “exit passing lane” option, this is a winner.
 
What’s the deal with this @STUtoday guy? Is he some sort of dislike bot? He trolls these threads and dislikes posts all the time, never see him like any posts, nor ever see him actually post anything.

Mojo is that you?!? Are you Elon’s dislike bot?
That is bizarre. Only 9 messages since Dec 2021. It trolls the Perpetual Investors Roundtable too and that's a busy verbose thread.
 
I think solving the FSD isn’t necessarily the major issue at hand. It’s constantly lying about it and giving false hope.

Not saying he needs to leave, but for the love of god put someone else in charge of disseminating correct information about what’s going on at Tesla.
Coincidentally, per Bard, one of Tesla/FSD shortcomings is the lack of performance transparency. And that's probably being generous as one could argue dishonesty is a better descriptor.
 
It really should try to merge as soon as there is room to do so.
That's true of all lane changes it makes. In general, it needs to be more proactive about changing lanes to follow the route. It seems hard-coded to wait until the last 1/2 mile to make the change, when it should do it within a mile or two when there is room while also considering traffic speed ahead. It's a pretty simple calculation our basic human brains make.
 
That's true of all lane changes it makes. In general, it needs to be more proactive about changing lanes to follow the route. It seems hard-coded to wait until the last 1/2 mile to make the change, when it should do it within a mile or two when there is room while also considering traffic speed ahead. It's a pretty simple calculation our basic human brains make.
Is it "simple"? I get over when it's best to get over...my brain doesn't have this "a mile or two" value you have. I will wait to get past any other merge/exit points, for instance. If that means I need to wait until the last 1/2 mile, that's what I'll do.
 
Is it "simple"? I get over when it's best to get over...my brain doesn't have this "a mile or two" value you have. I will wait to get past any other merge/exit points, for instance. If that means I need to wait until the last 1/2 mile, that's what I'll do.
I will often get in the right lane sooner if there is heavy traffic, or if I see cars moving up on the right that may close up an available space on the right. Sometimes it's just because it 'feels' like a good point to move into the right lane. FSD does not yet have that sort of foresight. It may never have it.
 
Like I’ve said before, it uses all of the on ramp and merges at the last second. It really should try to merge as soon as there is room to do so.
I suspect that, because the car uses map data as little as possible, and not yet reading most traffic signs, the car treats an entrance lane as a through lane until it sees that the lane is ending and must merge left. There certainly needs to be a better tactic than that.
 
Maybe I’m crazy but I think merging later is better than earlier
People probably believe they're being nice / not being rude by merging sooner, but they can actually cause more traffic and some states have laws requiring (late) zipper merges that 11.x seems to be following:

Rude Drivers Who Merge at the Last Moment Are Actually Helping You, Traffic Experts Agree - Inc.
Many states are trying to get the word out about the zipper merge, with videos explaining the maneuver, with signage, and with catchy phrases like, "Merge late, cooperate!"​

Zipper merging to be emphasized in Project Neon’s latest lane closures - Las Vegas Sun
“The problem is, is when people see the merge ahead, they all try to get over and you have all that unused pavement,” Illia said. “So it’s not an efficient flow of traffic, so we're trying to encourage people to go, I go you go, I go you go, all the way down.​

What is the zipper merge? Illinois law brings technique to highways, rulebook - ABC7 Chicago
So much so that a new law for 2020 mandates the zipper merge be included in this year's Illinois Rules of the Road handbook, following many other states that already use the technique like Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Montana and Nevada, to name a few.​

Road Rage, ‘Zipper Merging’ and a Stress-Free Path Through Traffic - NYTimes
Traffic experts largely agree that the best way to combine two busy lanes is a technique called the zipper merge. Drivers use both lanes until just before one ends, then merge like the teeth of a zipper coming together: one from this side, one from that side, hopefully with minimal slowdown.​
More broadly, FSD Beta might be doing things that are overall safer and potentially more efficient but different from how many humans drive. As the last article points out, this could result in road rage, which I suppose is a different kind of safety issue.
 
Maybe I’m crazy but I think merging later is better than earlier. Zipper merge is always the most efficient merge.

Technically speaking, merging at the last available moment minimizes traffic, as it maximizes the amount of road space being utilized. But that is assuming that merging at the last available moment is done with a smooth zipper and doesn't cause a slow game-of-chicken.

Ultimately I think what FSDb is missing most for me in this regard is being opportunistic. If traffic is jammed, I'm going to be changing lanes to my destination whenever the opportunity arises. Not merging based on a fixed heuristic.
 
I suspect that, because the car uses map data as little as possible, and not yet reading most traffic signs, the car treats an entrance lane as a through lane until it sees that the lane is ending and must merge left. There certainly needs to be a better tactic than that.
Where I live, roads are updated frequently, and it's very obvious when FSD has the correct map data for an intersection and when it doesn't. So I'm thinking it's using map data more than people realize.

For example, they recently put up a new stop sign at a nearby intersection, and it reads it at the last possible second. I've had to slam the brakes several times when it didn't pick it up at all (I wanted to see if it would ever read the stop sign and only tested it if no one was around).

On several other nearby intersections, they were converted from a two-way stop to a four-way stop. When driving in the direction that always had a stop sign, it doesn't see that the perpendicular road also has a stop sign and creeps like crazy instead of its usual behavior at four-way stops of going when it's my turn.

On a near by arterial road, it's lane data must be really off because FSD flat out ignores the yellow lane marker and will try to drive on the wrong side of the road. Thankfully the most recent FSD update made it more gracefully handle this failure scenario, but it's still an issue.
 
People probably believe they're being nice / not being rude by merging sooner, but they can actually cause more traffic and some states have laws requiring (late) zipper merges that 11.x seems to be following:

Rude Drivers Who Merge at the Last Moment Are Actually Helping You, Traffic Experts Agree - Inc.
Many states are trying to get the word out about the zipper merge, with videos explaining the maneuver, with signage, and with catchy phrases like, "Merge late, cooperate!"​

Zipper merging to be emphasized in Project Neon’s latest lane closures - Las Vegas Sun
“The problem is, is when people see the merge ahead, they all try to get over and you have all that unused pavement,” Illia said. “So it’s not an efficient flow of traffic, so we're trying to encourage people to go, I go you go, I go you go, all the way down.​

What is the zipper merge? Illinois law brings technique to highways, rulebook - ABC7 Chicago
So much so that a new law for 2020 mandates the zipper merge be included in this year's Illinois Rules of the Road handbook, following many other states that already use the technique like Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Montana and Nevada, to name a few.​

Road Rage, ‘Zipper Merging’ and a Stress-Free Path Through Traffic - NYTimes
Traffic experts largely agree that the best way to combine two busy lanes is a technique called the zipper merge. Drivers use both lanes until just before one ends, then merge like the teeth of a zipper coming together: one from this side, one from that side, hopefully with minimal slowdown.​
More broadly, FSD Beta might be doing things that are overall safer and potentially more efficient but different from how many humans drive. As the last article points out, this could result in road rage, which I suppose is a different kind of safety issue.
Zipper Merge is controversial: link . It works great in animated simulations and simplistic explanations, but actual real world evidence is rather sparse and mixed. I have yet to find a single definitive research study on the subject. Here is one study which searched for other studies and found that "...neither case study offers definitive evidence that the zipper merge is significantly more effective...", but recommended zippering anyway.

My own (twisted humor) suggestion when I encountered a clogged merge in San Francisco many years ago was that they should put up signs well in advance of the merge saying "Space Out!" That driving technique, by the way, is how those animated simulations make it look easy.

Clearly, FSD is not going to eliminate traffic slowdowns. At least not until there are enough FSD cars to enable platoon driving, which should happen by the end of the week. ;-)
 
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Do we know if the updates to FSD 11.3.2 are still rolling out or if Tesla has paused the rollout? I haven't seen any posts of people having received it in the last couple of days. My Model 3 is still on 10.69.25.2. Patience is hard...
Sadly, the last addition to the roll out started around 11 pm on the 19th, going on 4 days ago. On TeslaFi, the total number installed plus pending has stood near 605 since then. Sigh.

But like neural networks, Tesla is a black box, with it's internal thought process hidden away. Or, sometimes blurted out by the boss only to be overridden by some some other black box factors.