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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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11.3.3 is noticeably smoother and lane changes are more refined and human like. However, I witnessed a regression for right turn at stoplight. A cyclist was crossing the intersection and the car lunged forward just as the cyclist was in the middle of the intersection and the car attempted to make a right turn as if the cyclist wasn't even there. I intervened and applied the brakes immediately. I will check my dashcam for this event. I could care less about small things like erratic turn signal flashing at this point in time. I am more concerned about the dangerous decisions that may cause severe injury or death. I've been in the pilot FSD testing for almost 2 years and this still shows that it is not close to anything but a stressful L2 driver assist at this time. Maybe L4 in 4 years when 21.x.x is being released...
So did you make a report? I noticed any time you disengage you get a prompt to now.
 
Way better success rate though!

If you use a very low standard with no failures due to excessive wait time, I think it was 4/6! Much better than ~1/8 (best possible grading on prior version with free passes was 3/8 before).

Stopping in middle of the road not ideal though. To be fair, it was doing this before, effectively (it would proceed across the road at 9-12mph, which is of course stopped).

FSD beta has literally never worked on ULTs. Way better than not even attempting them (prior state of the art), but it is still broken. No changes recently. Same old broken results.

People like to pretend that somehow it worked at some point but they were just fooling themselves. It’ll make an effort to cross the road without being hit, of course, but it just isn’t functional in any normal sense of the word. Fortunately all of Chuck’s videos prove it.
Before (V10.x) would occasionally hang a vehicle portion on the median line. V11.3.3's ULT stops and pauses are not for the normal faint of heart driver. Maybe that's the plan after all there are more important issues to focus on. I'm okay with letting the higher speed ULT feature sit on the back burner.
 
Here's a slick little scenario to evaluate FSD system latency for a special case emergency stop.

The UI renders the full visible stop sign in about 1/2 second. Note it could even be longer if the logic is able to distinguish a partially visible stop sign (we know it does!). Chuck said he had to apply the brakes but it also appears FSD initiated brake action before his leg moved. So FSD initiated brakes about 1 second after the full stop sign was visible.


 
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11.3.3 pushed to my 3 this morning, and I took it for a ~40 minute drive. As always, I had it on Chill mode. First impressions:

Overall:
- It's better than 10.69.x for sure, but fails to address my (by far) #1 cause of disengagements: inappropriate blinkers. So my disengagement rate overall was still ~1 mile per disengagement.
- I don't understand how removing the fixed speed offset (in favor of the percentage-based offset) is any safer. I now have it set where it would go faster than I want on the highway, and in some surface roads it's too slow, so now I'm more distracted by constantly having to adjust my speed setpoint, while also having a risk of driving faster than I used to if I don't notice it changed my highway speed.
- I need more practice with the voice feedback. I think it's a good thing that it exists, but it's surprisingly tricky to concisely form the words to explain the problem, and find the button on the steering wheel in whatever orientation the wheel is in at the time, all while taking over to correct the car from a potentially dangerous state. I might rehearse some wording for the most common problems so I don't have to think as much in the moment.

Good:
- Highway driving was fine, so that was a relief. I was very worried it would change lanes at random like 10.69.x did on multi-lane roads, but lane changes were pretty good, except for not changing out of lanes that were ending.
- It stayed to the right on a section of road with no painted centerline (finally!)
- It found the giddyup juice when turning onto a road with very limited visibility from the left. I usually have to take over here to ensure I'm getting up to speed fast enough not to feel like there is a risk of getting rear ended from high speed cars coming around the curve just before the road I'm turning from, but 11.3.3 really punched it to get up to speed quickly. Yeehaw!
- Overall lateral/longitudinal control felt... just better somehow. If they could just fix the blinkers and make better lane choices, this car would really be a joy to not drive.
- I like the blue traffic light visualization change. It seems that the specific lights it's obeying are shown larger and in blue, making it clear at a glance if it's observing the correct signal.
- I like the wider path visualization and chevrons / stop line. It made it a lot easier to see the car was planning to stop short of a stop line

Bad:
- It doesn't seem to care that the lane you are in is ending. Maybe it would react as it ran out of pavement, but I had to take over every time my lane was ending (merging onto highway, 2 lanes down to 1, etc.). I even used the left stalk to request a lane change as the end of my lane came into view once, and it turned the blinker on but didn't actually plan a path to change lanes before I felt I had to take over
- Blinkers are still tied to a random number generator. I had blinkers turn on for curves in a single lane road, turn on when going straight through an intersection, turn on late for upcoming turns, not turn on when changing into a turn lane, etc. None of that is new vs. 10.69, but very disappointing it isn't any better on 11.3.3
- It tried to turn left into the second lane (not the nearest one), which I think may be legal in some places, but I was taught was illegal when I got my license
- It tried to change lanes in an intersection (again I believe this is illegal)
- It tried to stop roughly 100 ft short of a red light stop line at one point, but numerous other stop signs and red light stops were fine
I did my standard drive with the new FSD. It's a 45 minute drive out, then back, combined suburban and highway driving.

The above matches much of what I experienced. The percent offset to the speed limit is particularly annoying. My favorite improvement is highway lane changes, which are well done. Overall, FSD is delivering a smoother drive. Smoother, but not yet smooth.

I'll throw in some problem vignettes.

1. Two lane road, 35 limit. A Model X coming at me is straddling the double yellow while passing a cyclist. If I had been driving, I would have drifted right to ensure that the Model X had plenty of room. My car didn't bat an eye. I didn't glance at the planner to see what it thought as I wanted to make sure I didn't marry the Model X. The Model X got back over and all was good. No safety issues, but a drift right would have been reassuring.

2. Two lane road, 35 limit. I've driven this road many times on FSD, but this morning the car just braked hard and seemed to be stopping. I had a car behind me, so I disengaged and accelerated. After that, FSD would not come back. I saw intermittent flashes of the steering wheel icon, but it definitely didn't want to come back on. I pulled onto a side road, parked and then turned around and got back on that same road. Still wouldn't engage, and it stayed that way until the road reached a highway overpass with on and off ramps. Reengaged and it worked fine again. No red steering wheels or alarms.

3. Twice the car was so casual about changing multiple lanes of traffic before an exit that I had to disengage so that I'd make my exit. I guess they haven't had much time to work on higher order problems like that.

4. FSD retains its bad habit of braking through a bend in the road instead of braking prior to it.

5. Four lane road, 45 limit. The road winds quite a bit, and FSD didn't do a very good job of maintaining a line through it all. It tended to drift to the outside of each bend, which is the opposite of what I expect. That generally happened because the car began turning late for each bend.

6. Two lane road, 35 limit. Another lane bias problem where consecutive tight turns, one right, then left, caused the car to stay tight on the center divider lines. It makes sense to me to do that for a left turn, but not a right. I only let the car complete the turn that way because there was no oncoming traffic.

6. Sitting at an intersection. Light turns green. No reaction from FSD. Required an intervention. The light was slightly front and left and low, so it wasn't your typical light placement, but it knew to stop for the red.

One good point is that the car doesn't brake each time it crests a rise on a two lane divided road, which 10.69 did consistently. I did see slowdowns on some crests, but FSD is much improved for that case.

One bad point is that FSD's stopping behavior in traffic is just inviting getting rear ended. An abrupt stop a couple car lengths back in heavy traffic is just not a good idea.

As ever, map data problems sometimes ruin otherwise good behavior by FSD. Wrong speed limits especially.

Does anyone know if we can trigger lane changes manually while on FSD? I tried once and the car didn't complete it. I didn't try again because mostly I was letting the car do its thing.
 
I'm someone whose been more skeptical of v11, so my expectations weren't high by any measure. In fact I was convinced it was going to be a downgrade. I got the 11.3.3 download prompt last night, installed it in about an hour. And today was my first test, grocery day.

I'm extremely impressed. This isn't level 5 levels of impressed, but i think v11 is nearing being usable for the normal person as a level 2 system kind of impressed.

First off, driving conditions. I live semi rurally on the outskirts of a city. My roads are comparable too small town roads out here and there isn't anything near me. This means to do any shopping, I have to drive for about an hour into the city then an hour back. Most of this driving is on an interstate which has medium to heavy traffic on the weekends, heavy traffic on the weekdays. Importantly, I don't drive into the heart of the city for my shopping, so I consider my driving conditions to be navigate on rural on suburb roads, less so navigate in city streets. Lastly, my driving style is slow and defensively. So I'm overly cautious with my disengagments. Oh, and speed limits are a myth here. No one knows what those weird signs with the numbers on them means. A mystery lost to time.

On 10.69, I felt it delt with backstreets fairly well as long as it didn't need to yield or turn at an intersection. For intersections, it would turn correctly about 10 percent to 20 percent of the time. For this reason, I didn't use fsdb on intersections. Bopping out of fsd for the turn then bopping back in. NoA however was very useful for interstate driving. In stop and go, I'd have to disable it for being too harsh on breaking. While it would do lane changes, It would often be overly cautious causing me to have to intervene in heavy traffic. As far as lane changes go, this thing wanted me to be in suboptimal or worse, wrong lanes alllll the time. To the point that I pretty much ignored its lane change request on the interstate. Despite these issues, when the systems worked, they worked very well and virtually eliminated my fear of interstate driving. In fact it's the first time I enjoyed driving.

On 11.3.3 bacstreet performance. Wow, my car went from being able to do only about 10 to 20 percent of intersection turns poorly to being able to do 80 to 90 percent of the turns and about 60 to 70 percent of those turns well! I did put my foot on the accelerator during some turns to prevent any braking, which worked well. I only tested two yields, one it tried to treat like a stop sign, the other it was doing correctly but I accidently disengaged. Beyond that, the backstreet behavior on unmarked streets is ****ing leagues better. Before my car would hug curves on the right so closely that I thought it was going to curb the wheels and did unmarked interelsection either too wide or way too harsh. It felt like a human for many of these turns, it was incredible. On one blind, no lane corner, it would try to swerve into the opposite lane which could be accident causing. It no longer does this and handles it like a champ. I'm very impressed. It's also giving cars and people on the side of these roads much more room when it's able. Very human like. Very smooth.

For 11.3.3 on the interstate. I used the only change lanes when necessary option. Merging onto the interstate is scary. It uses the entire lane and I'm still skeptical if this would work in heavy traffic without annoying other drivers. But once you are on, ho-lee-fuk is that lane changing smooth. I didn't feel like I was changing lanes at all. It was eerie calming. For lane placement, it was better than 10.69's NoA. It never got into a wrong lane and was in the lanes I'd want it to be in on the old code. Furthermore, it was actually more calming as I wasn't getting incorrect lane change nags. I don't know what else to say. There was no jitter and it was just better than 10.69.

On the way home I briefly experimented with its normal lane change setting... it was too aggressive for my patient defensive driving style. I'll need more time to test it but I don't even care. Setting fsd to only change lanes to follow the route gave me perfect lane picking behavior for my style of driving. Make it a permanent setting and I'm good to go.

Lastly the ui and visualizations are so much freaking better. I'm very happy with 11.3.3 and I hope you guys try it soon. It's not perfect but i think it's much better overall. On my way home, on backroad and poorly marked streets it did try to run into a sidewalk. But my hands were on the yoke so it was no problem. That could have been a bad mistake but it was only one of a few, and the only noticeable one. Overall, I feel 11.3.3 makes less mistakes, is more competent, but the way fewer mistakes it makes are more dangerous. Despite this, I love v11. It's more calming than 10.69 and feels more practical.

In fact, i like it so much that I'm considering finally updating my radar y without the radar removing update to v11 when it becomes able too.

I typed this out on my phone, I'm sorry for typos! I'm not proofreading this essay.

Yup. I got the notification at about 6am eastern and it's on the car now. I first got FSD back in September after the initial 100,000 group, so I assume it's going wide. That, or I got selected because of a recent 4000+ mile road trip on NoA and that tripped a flag because they expect more of the same.

In the interest of cracking the rollout code, I'm the opposite. I drive like 6k to 7k between two teslas in a single year because I work from home. But, I think I figured it out. I use my frunk constantly! They must be picking frunk bros to test beta.
 
Here's a slick little scenario to evaluate FSD system latency for a special case emergency stop.

This seems like a perfectly good reason for an NHTSA recall, and they darn well better do it! (Or get it fixed of course.)

If I were Tesla I would issue a recall notice. It seems like good PR and also the right thing to do. Win-win! The NHTSA would not be able to react.

They could throw the “unexpected stopping” in the notice as well.
 
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I'm extremely impressed. This isn't level 5 levels of impressed, but i think v11 is nearing being usable for the normal person as a level 2 system kind of impressed.
I'm trying to be that positive, but then I think of all the people who would treat it like a Level 5 system.

Even then I wonder if it would result in fewer deaths per year.

In the interest of cracking the rollout code, I'm the opposite. I drive like 6k to 7k between two teslas in a single year because I work from home. But, I think I figured it out. I use my frunk constantly! They must be picking frunk bros to test beta.
A good theory, but no; I never use my frunk. I actually though it was busted for the last six months because the touchscreen wouldn't open it. Eventually I realized that the "Only unlock the driver's door" option meant that the frunk won't open via the touchscreen. In contrast, the trunk does open.

A quick check confirms that remains true with the latest FSD stuff, which isn't surprising.
 
I checked for the update this morning, no joy. You are up to date, it said. Hmmm.. That is not exactly true.

What it actually means that I am not among the 1,100 or so who have been selected to receive the latest update so far, which update is months behind the folks who didn't pay extra. Whatever.

This is pretty much what we (most of us anyway) expected, a phased rollout with possible pauses and restarts along the way.

I still expect the big change in this update to be in highway behavior, as swapping out the old AutoPilot code with FSD derived version was going to be a big chore, given the vast positive experience with the old code. My hope is that they'll soon get back to incremental improvements to solve the various rough edges in the city environments.

I am wondering if their plan is to soon swap out the old AutoPilot in the entire fleet, once the FSD version is polished and proven on highways. As it stands now, my wife uses the non FSD version, so both code bases are here in our car. If they unify the Highway code, then they can delete the old code, and maybe do the ongoing improvements in FSD in the production releases, which would be nice for several reasons. For example, it would end the second-class status of folks who opted for FSD but they got updated or took delivery after the last FSD fork base code date. And the non-FSD related changes would no longer be withheld from FSD owners. One can hope...

I guess I'm thinking it is maybe time to shut down the entire FSD beta subclass of owners.

Anyway, since I can't go out and try 11.X.X yet, all I can do for now is muse.
 
very, very placid acceleration from stops, both in my low-speed neighborhood and on the 55 mph 4-lane with median main road
Yeah seems like 11.x maintains the cautious acceleration when it detects slippery / low traction situations. Unclear if it's based on vision vs. detected wheel speeds, but I noticed similar behavior with 10.x:
This morning, multiple times (although not every time) accelerating at the front with no lead vehicle for a green light was very slow / safe. The power meter at the top would barely go past the end of "CHILL" (the acceleration mode -- although snowflake icon was showing and FSD Beta driving is also set to Chill too), and every 5mph increment would take nearly 3 seconds, so getting up to 25mph took almost 15 seconds.

More generally, FSD Beta does seem to change behaviors including frequency of nags when it is less confident such as jumpy lane lines from low visibility or precipitation seemingly to make sure the driver is extra ready to take over if necessary.
 
I did my standard drive with the new FSD. It's a 45 minute drive out, then back, combined suburban and highway driving.

The above matches much of what I experienced. The percent offset to the speed limit is particularly annoying. My favorite improvement is highway lane changes, which are well done. Overall, FSD is delivering a smoother drive. Smoother, but not yet smooth.
I much prefer the percent offset and stopped using the absolute speed setting a couple of years ago. Not at all surprised they removed this capability as part of the NHTSA review. There were many complaints over it.