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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Autopark couldn't reliably even notice a spot existed to park in for years after it was considered delivered
I don’t consider it delivered, which is what matters.

I’m unable to turn on FSDb on surface streets because the most important passenger gets extremely upset. So also FSDb not delivered. Needs to drive normally. No jerking allowed. I think that is a pretty clear, generally recognized, perfectly reasonable requirement.

They can of course claim FSDb is delivered too but that does not mean it is.

Hopefully it will continue to improve to the point that people generally recognize it as being delivered and of high quality, and it operates in such a way as to nearly perfectly merge human and machine. Otherwise money back I guess.

What was the end date of the “will be delivered by end of year” purchase window?
 
I don’t consider it delivered, which is what matters.

Tesla did- including for legal and accounting purposes, which is what actually matters :)


I’m unable to turn on FSDb on surface streets because the most important passenger gets extremely upset. So also FSDb not delivered.

"My wife doesn't like how it drives" is not a useful legal argument.

The same, I'm told, can be said about many husbands (or wives for that matter)

I've never had a single complaint from any passenger about it being jerky on surface streets... so you're not even gonna pass the "reasonable person" standard on this one... we get it, you have someone SUPER picky on this specific thing--- but it's functional even if not smooth enough for you to love it.



Needs to drive normally. No jerking allowed. I think that is a pretty clear, generally recognized, perfectly reasonable requirement.

Generally recognized by whom? Certainly not in any legal sense.

Virtually ever L2 smart cruise system, for years, has had phantom braking... and nobody is suing over that function not being delivered- so no, there's no "normally no jerking ever" rule anywhere I'm afraid.



What was the end date of the “will be delivered by end of year” purchase window?


Roughly Oct 8 2021.

So anybody who bought FSD after the March 2019 complete revamp of features and before Jan 1 2021 would have a very strong case it seems for Tesla not delivering on the "later this year" promise for city streets.

Some folks who bought from Jan 1 2021 to Oct 7 2021 might as well, though perhaps not if they were among those who got FSDb anytime in 2021.
 
Done great so far on those dirt roads on recent version. Before if was stop and stare at other car. Just noting progress. Where I am at dirt roads if not careful mean death. Well maybe not looking at recent cliff reports. Progress on dirt.

Hey I look at big picture. I remember calling crazy Ivans back in the day that where finally corrected 2019... I was nervous about highway, but after 7k or so not so bad. Again I look from many years back and on progress. Some look at it release by release. I can see how newer owners might want progress now.

Yes I am on latest stuff. My question is the "influencers" now really only contribute to local stack. What about the FSDb people that routinely pull 5k a month in miles. Don't they contribute more? Unfortunately those people don't have time to suck face to Youtube.
 
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Tesla did- including for legal and accounting purposes, which is what actually matters :)

Not actually, of course. That is presumably what courts are for.

I've never had a single complaint from any passenger about it being jerky on surface streets... so you're not even gonna pass the "reasonable person" standard on this one... we get it, you have someone SUPER picky on this specific thing--- but it's functional even if not smooth enough for you to love it.
Lol. I think the approach here would be measuring the jerk and using that as a metric. Much less subjective. Presumably the courts would like that too.

SUPER picky
Definitely not super picky. Just today I forgot to turn it off exiting the freeway. It was going fine around this corner, outside left turn lane, and then just as it was about to complete it, planner got confused and jerked which lane it was going to and jerked the wheel, which would have been enough to upset any passenger (obviously I disengaged - unfortunately cannot do reports with passengers as they are not good either). It upset my passenger (as it would any normal person) and created a very bad situation.

This is abnormal behavior and it is most definitely measurable and not unusual and comparable to a control, which would prove the deficiency.

Presumably this is how this will all be ultimately decided.

Data!

 
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The fastest way to get FSD Beta is to NOT install any updates. Installing updates almost guarantees that you will always be ahead of the Beta and never get it. Tesla may one day get FSD Beta on the most current branch but history says that is not the case.
Based on a few days of poking around the interwebs and other forums, it looks like no HW4 vehicles shipped with FSD software, and looks like we are all on the exact same version. I have to assume the FSD update for hardware 4 will be ahead of my software since it would have to be.
 
Not actually, of course. That is presumably what courts are for.

I mean yes actually. Those recognitions of delivery are in SEC filed documents, and have been for years now (regarding self parking anyway). Not a single regulatory agency (or lawyer) has had a peep to say about any of it not being accurate despite far more than enough time to do so or file suit over it.



Lol. I think the approach here would be measuring the jerk and using that as a metric.

Can you should me the law the specifies the legally allowed amount of jerk?

No, of course not. Because there isn't one.

Does it functionally do the thing it says it will? Case closed. There's no "does it exactly as smoothly as I personally want" standard.

Again every brand of advanced cruise, for years and years now, has had phantom braking-- heck I'm the one who usually ends up posting multiple reported examples of that from brand after brand every time someone tries to insist it's a Tesla-specific problem--- which is certainly is not.

But nobody has demanded all those other brands declare it underdelivered and pay out compensation because it's not always smooth or flawless either. Same thing here.

Heck I've driven rental Kia/Hyundai vehicles whose lane keep is considered "delivered" and just gives up without warning on sharpish turns and you only realize it turned off because the car begins drifting out of its lane.... or rental Toyota/Lexus vehicles where active cruise just shuts off without warning if you drop below a certain speed... (I do think newer ones can go down to 0 now at least). Both of those are at least as bad/dangerous.
 
Based on a few days of poking around the interwebs and other forums, it looks like no HW4 vehicles shipped with FSD software, and looks like we are all on the exact same version. I have to assume the FSD update for hardware 4 will be ahead of my software since it would have to be.
First there is the FSD Capability package which is what you buy (or subscribe to) and then there is FSD Beta (Autosteer on City Streets) that is a granted access by Tesla. No Tesla has ever shipped with FSD Beta software installed. FSD Beta must be requested by the owner and then granted by Tesla. All Tesla's are shipped with factory software that is identifiable by the 3 digit code (xxxx.xx.XXX) at the end and never contains FSD Beta.

EDIT: HW4 is new and Tesla is notorious for shipping (or removing) hardware before the software is ready. It will likely be months before Tesla writes FSD Beta code that is compatible and works with HW4. Hell it took Tesla almost 6 months after removing the USS to get the software.
 
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Can you should me the law the specifies the legally allowed amount of jerk?
No of course not! You seem to be trying to win some sort of argument and I just don't care. You can be right!

But none of this matters.

Those recognitions of delivery are in SEC filed documents, and have been for years now (regarding self parking anyway). Not a single regulatory agency (or lawyer) has had a peep to say about any of it not being accurate despite far more than enough time to do so or file suit over it.
I mean of course not. You're right of course. Fortunately SEC-filed documents are always correct and the lack of legal challenges proves that.

Again every brand of advanced cruise, for years and years now, has had phantom braking-
Yes, will be new legal territory with the steering I guess. After all it is Autosteer so it seems like it perhaps should automatically steer (rather than not do that).

Anyway whatever, it doesn't matter. It'll all work itself out.

Does it functionally do the thing it says it will
Definitively, no, it does not.

I'm not even sure what your argument is or what you're trying to convince me of. But as I said, it doesn't matter, and I don't really care anymore (meaning you don't need to tell me what your argument is, it's fine, you can be right if you want). It's just kind of garbage right now and hopefully at some point that will change and it will get over the threshold of acceptability for users.

That's all I care about and what the legal ramifications are I just don't care. I only care whether it is good or not. That is measurable.
 
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First there is the FSD Capability package which is what you buy (or subscribe to) and then there is FSD Beta (Autosteer on City Streets) that is a granted access by Tesla. No Tesla has ever shipped with FSD Beta software installed. FSD Beta must be requested by the owner and then granted by Tesla. All Tesla's are shipped with factory software that is identifiable by the 3 digit code (xxxx.xx.XXX) at the end and never contains FSD Beta.

EDIT: HW4 is new and Tesla is notorious for shipping (or removing) hardware before the software is ready. It will likely be months before Tesla writes FSD Beta code that is compatible and works with HW4. Hell it took Tesla almost 6 months after removing the USS to get the software.
I don’t even have the button for fsd beta, it’s greyed out saying it’ll be available in a future release, So I definitely don’t have the request button.
 
One serious regression of FSD merge is I now get "FSD maybe degraded due to poor weather" warning on freeways, plus loud double ding sound, every minute when it rains, which is all the time in Seattle. FSD seems to work fine, and it would not bother me, except for the annoying sound!
It’s not really safe to use the system when it rains, so I would just disengage it. Will save your ears too it sounds like. And your sheet metal.

It’s simply not able to understand increased following distances and anticipate actions of drivers ahead sufficiently well. Don't let it trap you in a dangerous situation you'd never be in otherwise.

It doesn’t rain in Seattle that much. Use it when it’s dry (57% of days, and on some of the wet days it will be dry enough).
 
One serious regression of FSD merge is I now get "FSD maybe degraded due to poor weather" warning on freeways, plus loud double ding sound, every minute when it rains,
For me it only dings when it brings up the warning. If the warning stays on it doesn't ding again. But sometimes it "flaps" between thinking things are find and then going in to the "possible degraded" state.

But I never had it flip more than a couple times. (But I have had the possibly degraded message up for a half hour... (Again with it only dinging once.)

And if you think it is too loud, maybe you want to turn "Joe mode" on.
 
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It’s not really safe to use the system when it rains, so I would just disengage it. Will save your ears too it sounds like. And your sheet metal.

It’s simply not able to understand increased following distances and anticipate actions of drivers ahead sufficiently well. Don't let it trap you in a dangerous situation you'd never be in otherwise.

It doesn’t rain in Seattle that much. Use it when it’s dry (57% of days, and on some of the wet days it will be dry enough).
Seriously? It used to only complain when it rained hard. Now it complains even for a slight drizzles. If it can't handle that then FSD is a major fail.
 
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For me it only dings when it brings up the warning. If the warning stays on it doesn't ding again. But sometimes it "flaps" between thinking things are find and then going in to the "possible degraded" state.

But I never had it flip more than a couple times. (But I have had the possibly degraded message up for a half hour... (Again with it only dinging once.)

And if you think it is too loud, maybe you want to turn "Joe mode" on.
It's possible that setting wiper speed fixed to 3 or above will also prevent the toggling. (The exact behavior here is unclear to me, but in my limited testing a setting of 3 reliably induced the warning and prevented engagement on 10.69 (haven't checked 11.3.x).) But just a hypothesis.
 
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Now it complains even for a slight drizzles. If it can't handle that then FSD is a major fail.
Try just setting wiper speed to 3 after engaging. Worth a shot anyway, just to see if it works. Just be sure not to disengage of course.
Seriously?
Seriously. Don't use it when it's raining (or at least be really selective!). Wet pavement is slippery, and it has no idea how to drive. It's not a moral duty to use it.
 
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I bet Tesla never admits or announces that we won't be getting at least L3. They can always be "working" towards it. Even if we get a HW4 or HW5 roboxaxi specific car Tesla can just say HW3 requires more time and they are working on it.

EDIT: I always said I would be happy with a L3 system. But even if the driving abilities reach L3 Tesla will probably stay L2 to avoid the legal liability of becoming the driver.

Has there ever been a survey on TMC of how many of us would be 100% okay if @tesla would just give us L3 on expressways? That’s all I have ever wanted too and others manufacturers have it and we (Tesla owners) seem to see it as so far away, if at all, from ever happening for us 😏
For a long time on this forum I've brought up for L3 on access controlled highways and for the longest time my posts were ignored. My last one did get a couple of replies but It's now nice to see others are beginning to at least talk about L3 on access controlled highways. I believe there is huge value to watching video, texting etc. and V11 has made a pretty significant dent in this area. I have no doubt if Tesla wanted to within a year they could offer this. Will they probably not but lets face it even if Tesla gets to L4/L5 with H3 how many owners would ever take advantage of a robotaxi service anyway. I suspect the number is pretty small.
 
For me it only dings when it brings up the warning. If the warning stays on it doesn't ding again. But sometimes it "flaps" between thinking things are find and then going in to the "possible degraded" state.

But I never had it flip more than a couple times. (But I have had the possibly degraded message up for a half hour... (Again with it only dinging once.)

And if you think it is too loud, maybe you want to turn "Joe mode" on.
Unfortunately I already have Joe mode on.
 
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