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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Mine drives through red lights when I’m the first car. Mission accomplished. Mine goes into the wrong lanes so it can’t continue the route. Misssion accomplished. I think I saw that these features were included in the fine print
As to @Mr. Michael's statement:

Funny, my FSD-b enabled car doesn't do that. Stops at red lights when first; takes off appropriately when the light turns green.

Gets in the wrong lane? Sure, there's this one intersection that has four lanes going into it, but the right-most lane is not marked right-turn-only. And, once one goes through the intersection, almost immediately that right-most lane gets closed off, then opens right up again for an on-ramp into a shopping center. People get it wrong more than half the time.

But, other than that one, "wrong lane" excursions are few and far between.

Has the car tried to go through a red light? Yup, 10.69.x.x, at specific intersections at random times. Recently? Nope. Do I worry about it? Sure, I'm driving a beta load.

Your black-and-white statement defies common sense and others' reports. And that's the problem with some of the, "The glass is flat-out empty!" types who post around here. Any failure seems to be immediately equated to a, "It's total $BS!" bunch of statements.

I'll be the first to admit that the current 11.3.6 load Isn't Ready For Prime Time; Ma and Pa Sixpack aren't going to knock a sixpack or two away, get into the car, and expect it to drive them home. Personally, I get anywhere from one intervention every 10 miles on city streets to three interventions per mile. (Current major gripes: wide, single lane roads where either the car hangs out too far to the right on a left turn, preventing other drivers from coming through straight ahead on the right, or, when another car in front is turning left, not letting the car drive through on the right when there's tons of room.) Compare this load with earlier versions: Much better. As expected. The software people at Tesla aren't standing still.

Take a survey around here and you're going to get people who think that FSD will never come out of Beta status. There's others who hope for, "In a couple of months." The right answer is somewhere in between, natch. The point is, though, that FSD is a blinking research project: Nobody's done this before. I've actually been around true-blue research, which is often defined as, "The process of running up alleys to see if they're blind." Fits and starts, you betcha. Occasional failures, such is life. Spectacular successes, they're in there, too.

Smarter people than, probably, any of us have taken a look at problem and Think It Can Be Done. It's not just Tesla, but Google, Ford, GM, and others who, apparently, have bit the lure and are Going For It. So I think that Abject Failure is not in the cards given the number of players present. And the people actually involved in writing the code at Tesla think it can be done and that they can do it. Could they be wrong? Sure. Likely that they're wrong? Nope.

So, patience, grasshoppers. We'll get there. When, dunno.
 
As to @Mr. Michael's statement:

Funny, my FSD-b enabled car doesn't do that. Stops at red lights when first; takes off appropriately when the light turns green.

Gets in the wrong lane? Sure, there's this one intersection that has four lanes going into it, but the right-most lane is not marked right-turn-only. And, once one goes through the intersection, almost immediately that right-most lane gets closed off, then opens right up again for an on-ramp into a shopping center. People get it wrong more than half the time.

But, other than that one, "wrong lane" excursions are few and far between.

Has the car tried to go through a red light? Yup, 10.69.x.x, at specific intersections at random times. Recently? Nope. Do I worry about it? Sure, I'm driving a beta load.

Your black-and-white statement defies common sense and others' reports. And that's the problem with some of the, "The glass is flat-out empty!" types who post around here. Any failure seems to be immediately equated to a, "It's total $BS!" bunch of statements.

I'll be the first to admit that the current 11.3.6 load Isn't Ready For Prime Time; Ma and Pa Sixpack aren't going to knock a sixpack or two away, get into the car, and expect it to drive them home. Personally, I get anywhere from one intervention every 10 miles on city streets to three interventions per mile. (Current major gripes: wide, single lane roads where either the car hangs out too far to the right on a left turn, preventing other drivers from coming through straight ahead on the right, or, when another car in front is turning left, not letting the car drive through on the right when there's tons of room.) Compare this load with earlier versions: Much better. As expected. The software people at Tesla aren't standing still.

Take a survey around here and you're going to get people who think that FSD will never come out of Beta status. There's others who hope for, "In a couple of months." The right answer is somewhere in between, natch. The point is, though, that FSD is a blinking research project: Nobody's done this before. I've actually been around true-blue research, which is often defined as, "The process of running up alleys to see if they're blind." Fits and starts, you betcha. Occasional failures, such is life. Spectacular successes, they're in there, too.

Smarter people than, probably, any of us have taken a look at problem and Think It Can Be Done. It's not just Tesla, but Google, Ford, GM, and others who, apparently, have bit the lure and are Going For It. So I think that Abject Failure is not in the cards given the number of players present. And the people actually involved in writing the code at Tesla think it can be done and that they can do it. Could they be wrong? Sure. Likely that they're wrong? Nope.

So, patience, grasshoppers. We'll get there. When, dunno.
I think most/all here appreciate the team at Tesla that are working hard to keep their CEO from being a liar. Hats off to those on that team. It must be very frustrating to work there when your “leader” is out and about making statements and pronouncements about the product that are not true and/or may not be realistic (from their point of view). Just think about that for a moment… Would you enjoy working in that kind of environment?
 
I think most/all here appreciate the team at Tesla that are working hard to keep their CEO from being a liar. Hats off to those on that team. It must be very frustrating to work there when your “leader” is out and about making statements and pronouncements about the product that are not true and/or may not be realistic (from their point of view). Just think about that for a moment… Would you enjoy working in that kind of environment?

It's great that Tesla has a different work culture and environment. If all companies had the same struggles and types of leaders, then we wouldn't have Tesla and SpaceX essentially carrying the entire USA's tech advancement in mfging and space.
 
.


Here's what you were told it would do when you paid 10k for it:


View attachment 935369

Now that FSDb drives on city streets it does everything it was advertised to do.

You can certainly debate if it does it as well as you hoped of course.

But the only folks who are missing entire promised features from when they actually bought the thing are the pre March 2019 FSD buyers- all of whom paid a LOT less than 10k for it at least.
But what if you bought a $15,000 Sub Zero refrigerator that promised:
  • The freezer compartment will keep food frozen permanently for later use.
  • The light will illuminate when the door opens.
  • Ice cubes are made automatically.
  • The freezer can be defrosted automatically.
  • The refrigerator compartment will keep foods cold for a day.
Coming soon:
  • The refrigerator will keep foods cold permanently so that they don't spoil for weeks.
Now let's say that the "Coming soon" item never achieved that goal. Is the appliance worth the $15,000 that you paid for it?
 
I think most/all here appreciate the team at Tesla that are working hard to keep their CEO from being a liar. Hats off to those on that team. It must be very frustrating to work there when your “leader” is out and about making statements and pronouncements about the product that are not true and/or may not be realistic (from their point of view). Just think about that for a moment… Would you enjoy working in that kind of environment?
Let's see, here. I actually have worked in no-kidding mixed hardware, software, and firmware development for a long, long time. With deadlines.

Interesting, those deadlines. Actually took an in-house course back in the day on how to estimate development time. Kind of an off-shoot of project management, that, but a course designed for the actual developers, not some person who just, well, manages.

First rule: One gives it one's best shot. Helps a lot if one has been through the process of getting something out the door already. Features, architectures, high-level requirements, low-level requirements, documentation, documentation, documentation, testing, factory test, actual design, ASIC simuilation to find bugs, re-design to kill bugs, more simulation, and on and on. And it still requires a good, stiff drink and a lot of guess work. Time for people getting sick. Time for vacations. Time for having guessed wrong and having to go back and try again. And these guesses aren't done in a vacuum: Every development project I've been involved with has had Problems where, due to one thing or another, in-house or out, Something Went Sideways and one had to recover. Estimates on how much time one might save with new development technologies and procedures; that stuff doesn't stand still, you know. Improvements in coordination with other groups; web based documentation and re-use of VHDL across multiple continents.

All of the above gets... complex. Yet, we do it. And come up with a honest-to-golly time estimate, which we then hand upstairs. And the upstairs guys haul out their copies of Microsoft Project, create waterfall diagrams and Gantt charts up the wazoo, and figure out where the critical paths lie.

In a good management environment, we lower-level types and upper management understand that everything might actually go Extremely Right and the development time might be 20%, maybe 30% than that estimated. Or everything might go Extremely Wrong and it could be 20% or 30% the other way. And.. it's so tempting for certain types who think, "Well, we got good engineers. Maybe we don't have to do inspections on each document to flush out errors." The better managers restrain themselves. The worser ones don't, but the general rule is, "Shorten up those schedules and Skip Stuff and you'll find out that, with enough overtime and massive stress, you might meet the original, unshortened schedule." I've been around in both the unshortened (we tend to meet or beat schedule) and the shortened (we tend to meet or exceed schedule, but with ulcers) types.

And all of the above? That's with mostly cutting-edge and only a couple of bleeding-edge technology issues on the new gear.

Now, throw in, "This is so far past bleeding edge that there's limbs missing." This makes the guesstimate fuzz much worse. And that's what Tesla (and others) are trying to accomplish. Think: Moonshot.

So I'm not surprised that it's taking a long, long time to get FSD out the door. But the fact that things are improving on each release gives me hope that, to the extent that a pure-ass research project (which this appears to be) is moving forward, that said project is going to come to completion.

Nothing is ever simple when it comes to development.
 
As to @Mr. Michael's statement:

Funny, my FSD-b enabled car doesn't do that. Stops at red lights when first; takes off appropriately when the light turns green.

Gets in the wrong lane? Sure, there's this one intersection that has four lanes going into it, but the right-most lane is not marked right-turn-only. And, once one goes through the intersection, almost immediately that right-most lane gets closed off, then opens right up again for an on-ramp into a shopping center. People get it wrong more than half the time.

But, other than that one, "wrong lane" excursions are few and far between.

Has the car tried to go through a red light? Yup, 10.69.x.x, at specific intersections at random times. Recently? Nope. Do I worry about it? Sure, I'm driving a beta load.

Your black-and-white statement defies common sense and others' reports. And that's the problem with some of the, "The glass is flat-out empty!" types who post around here. Any failure seems to be immediately equated to a, "It's total $BS!" bunch of statements.

I'll be the first to admit that the current 11.3.6 load Isn't Ready For Prime Time; Ma and Pa Sixpack aren't going to knock a sixpack or two away, get into the car, and expect it to drive them home. Personally, I get anywhere from one intervention every 10 miles on city streets to three interventions per mile. (Current major gripes: wide, single lane roads where either the car hangs out too far to the right on a left turn, preventing other drivers from coming through straight ahead on the right, or, when another car in front is turning left, not letting the car drive through on the right when there's tons of room.) Compare this load with earlier versions: Much better. As expected. The software people at Tesla aren't standing still.

Take a survey around here and you're going to get people who think that FSD will never come out of Beta status. There's others who hope for, "In a couple of months." The right answer is somewhere in between, natch. The point is, though, that FSD is a blinking research project: Nobody's done this before. I've actually been around true-blue research, which is often defined as, "The process of running up alleys to see if they're blind." Fits and starts, you betcha. Occasional failures, such is life. Spectacular successes, they're in there, too.

Smarter people than, probably, any of us have taken a look at problem and Think It Can Be Done. It's not just Tesla, but Google, Ford, GM, and others who, apparently, have bit the lure and are Going For It. So I think that Abject Failure is not in the cards given the number of players present. And the people actually involved in writing the code at Tesla think it can be done and that they can do it. Could they be wrong? Sure. Likely that they're wrong? Nope.

So, patience, grasshoppers. We'll get there. When, dunno.

Unfortunately I and others online have experience red light and stop sign runs. It's the real deal. No one should be surprised to hear FSDb doesn't always work as intended.

Hopefully most acknowledge the lowest form of AV life is not an easy problem to solve. On the other hand, the downside of Elon's motivation is turning science into a near faith based FSD salvation show for profit. That works for a little while but reality bites. And a number of big players over the years have spent big money and fallen to the wayside while acknowledging the goal isn't possible at this time. Someone will eventually solve it but it isn't in the cards for Elon's low cost sensor-neutered HW3.

It all depends how many layers of the onion one wants to delve into. Superficially FSDb is the bomb. But looking closer at safety critical scenarios it's an arcade game trying to claim real world credit with game restarts so long as the human unsorts frequent real time issues in time.

Time will tell if there will be enough free-money to continue investing in AV projects. Gawd knows free money isn't available like it was a year or two ago.
 
Let's see, here. I actually have worked in no-kidding mixed hardware, software, and firmware development for a long, long time. With deadlines.

Interesting, those deadlines. Actually took an in-house course back in the day on how to estimate development time. Kind of an off-shoot of project management, that, but a course designed for the actual developers, not some person who just, well, manages.

First rule: One gives it one's best shot. Helps a lot if one has been through the process of getting something out the door already. Features, architectures, high-level requirements, low-level requirements, documentation, documentation, documentation, testing, factory test, actual design, ASIC simuilation to find bugs, re-design to kill bugs, more simulation, and on and on. And it still requires a good, stiff drink and a lot of guess work. Time for people getting sick. Time for vacations. Time for having guessed wrong and having to go back and try again. And these guesses aren't done in a vacuum: Every development project I've been involved with has had Problems where, due to one thing or another, in-house or out, Something Went Sideways and one had to recover. Estimates on how much time one might save with new development technologies and procedures; that stuff doesn't stand still, you know. Improvements in coordination with other groups; web based documentation and re-use of VHDL across multiple continents.

All of the above gets... complex. Yet, we do it. And come up with a honest-to-golly time estimate, which we then hand upstairs. And the upstairs guys haul out their copies of Microsoft Project, create waterfall diagrams and Gantt charts up the wazoo, and figure out where the critical paths lie.

In a good management environment, we lower-level types and upper management understand that everything might actually go Extremely Right and the development time might be 20%, maybe 30% than that estimated. Or everything might go Extremely Wrong and it could be 20% or 30% the other way. And.. it's so tempting for certain types who think, "Well, we got good engineers. Maybe we don't have to do inspections on each document to flush out errors." The better managers restrain themselves. The worser ones don't, but the general rule is, "Shorten up those schedules and Skip Stuff and you'll find out that, with enough overtime and massive stress, you might meet the original, unshortened schedule." I've been around in both the unshortened (we tend to meet or beat schedule) and the shortened (we tend to meet or exceed schedule, but with ulcers) types.

And all of the above? That's with mostly cutting-edge and only a couple of bleeding-edge technology issues on the new gear.

Now, throw in, "This is so far past bleeding edge that there's limbs missing." This makes the guesstimate fuzz much worse. And that's what Tesla (and others) are trying to accomplish. Think: Moonshot.

So I'm not surprised that it's taking a long, long time to get FSD out the door. But the fact that things are improving on each release gives me hope that, to the extent that a pure-ass research project (which this appears to be) is moving forward, that said project is going to come to completion.

Nothing is ever simple when it comes to development.
The point here is not how tough the problem is to solve, or how hard the team is working, but rather the leader running around spouting off baseless statements that likely didn’t come from the team. That creates a less than desirable work environment for said team members.
 
It's great that Tesla has a different work culture and environment. If all companies had the same struggles and types of leaders, then we wouldn't have Tesla and SpaceX essentially carrying the entire USA's tech advancement in mfging and space.
Flashy cultures, elaborate company perks, and exotic food courts come and go. Public held companies have the same forces working against them. They need to watch how their monies are spent. They need to develop/produce reliable products and staff need to perform exceptionally well. From my perspective FSDb is failing on a few of those.

I would bet FSDb is a TSLA product loss leader given the ridiculous price, poor performance, desperate marketing, disingenuous safety reporting, unreported FSD take rates, scope/spec creep, ...
 
Flashy cultures, elaborate company perks, and exotic food courts come and go. Public held companies have the same forces working against them. They need to watch how their monies are spent. The bottom line is needing to develop/produce working products and staff needing to perform exceptionally. FSDb is failing on a few of those.

I would bet FSDb is a TSLA product loss leader given the exorbitant price, poor performance, desperate marketing, disingenuous safety reporting, unreported FSD take rates, scope/spec creep, ...
Microsoft even used to serve beer in the company commuter busses… No more, I understand…

Re safety - 1) Crossing over the centerline when making right turns, 2) trying to pass stopped and loading school busses with children all around and lights flashing, 3) ignoring school zone loading speed limits with said speed limit sign lights madly flashing, 4) running red lights when you are the lead car, etc., are not shining examples of a “mind blowingly great” product - as often is reported here and by the YT influencers.
 
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It reflects well how I’ve been thinking about it.

I treat system as work in progress. Usefulness and reduction in stress on the road come from using it at times, when it performs well or when even its limited capabilities make my process of driving easier and safer (ADAS / augmented driving). I don’t expect full end to end autonomy as I know FSD is not there yet.

In my everyday drives, the car absolutely keeps making mistakes. New builds bring improvements and regressions. Less traffic definitely improves the behavior but I drive in dense traffic about half of the time. Busy all way stops are a problem - hesitation, slow reaction but most of all lack of ability to ‘read’ other drivers and predict what they will do. So are multilane roundabouts and occasional unprotected left turns. There are also issues not related to other drivers that especially annoy me, like when my car changes lane before the intersection and ends up with its rear stuck two feet into the old lane and at the same time there is plenty of space ahead of it.

I’ve learned to expect those mistakes and I intervene either by gentle press of accelerator, sometimes continued press through a situation. I also have to adjust speed using the wheel, to keep the car flowing with the traffic. When I’ve someone tailgating me in a potentially problematic situation, I proactively hover foot over accelerator or disengage in advance.

Despite all of those frustrations I still choose to have it enabled most of the time on most of my drives as I find it adds up to my overall awareness of a situation on the road and helps me be a safer driver.

However, I don’t think current price, or 10k I paid for it, is a good value for most people. I also strongly believe the transfer of FSD beta on car upgrade should be allowed. In my eyes, Tesla overpromised capabilities and underestimated the rate of progress. They should at least compensate for it by allowing transfer of any FSD beta license to a new car at no cost.
Or just use the computer software model. You take software with you when you buy a new computer. If you want the latest version (unless Apple) you pay for that upgrade. Tesla still makes money and you don't have to spend more if you don't want to. Although most people will probably pay for the update?
 
Okay, no more “1-800-Got-Junk” photos… But, I’m not going to post how great FSDj is, unless it one day actually is. Today is not that day, however.
Let people know your experience, but you don't have to repeat the same thing over and over again.

Also, just an observation: The people with poor experiences are much more vocal and acerbic on the forums than the so-called shills. You and others have adopted "junk" as your moniker and use it as much as possible, but you rarely see someone with a positive experience with the opposite behavior - such as using "perfection" (FSDp) every post and posting pictures of gold stars or something similar.

Now, if this is all just "fun" and you guys are legitimately bored, then I'd remind you that TMC is growing and new members are joining frequently, some needing help.
 
What else is there to discuss in this thread when the releases are so far apart and so stale that I’m surprised the mold doesn’t grown on them.
You'll notice others are posting their experiences with FSD Beta on a recent drive, perhaps. Both positive and negative. You could describe a drive, and how Beta handled a simple route near you. If you don't use FSD Beta much, if at all, due to extremely poor performance with your vehicle, then perhaps you validate other people's similar experiences when they post their poor performance - a form of commiseration. You might share with new members coming in how you've attempting to solve your problems, to no avail. It could be helpful to them to know they're not alone in their experience, and might even spark a unique solution that many haven't thought of.
 
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I think 11.3 has been a massive improvement, FWIW. It's not good enough yet, but at this point I'm starting to believe that autonomy will be possible. My disengagements have gone way down since the 10.x days. I get a lot of long mixed highway/city drives with zero to minimal disengagements now.

What I'm most frustrated by nowadays is mostly lane selection and/or routing issues (still!).

The normal "gets in the wrong lane for an upcoming intersection" thing, I can generally work around with blinkers and is at least a little better than before.

What has concerned me more is the wrong lane choices navigating through complex multi-step intersections that go under highway bridges at feeder road intersections in TX.

One location near me works like this: you're sitting at a red light in the leftmost of three lanes, which is a left turn lane. As the car make the left turn under the bridge, there are four total lanes to choose from in the new direction and an immediate new stoplight ahead: the left two lanes are left turn only, the right two lanes go straight. The nav knows I need to straight, but the car consistently aims itself into the second left turn lane, and takes a car length or so to visually realize the problem and try to abruptly shift back to the right one lane to go straight. It confuses the driver behind you, who tries to go straight around you and then is in your way, and it's an awful mess. I always steering-disengage here before it causes a scene, unless I'm there at night with no other cars around.

A related scenario caused a real safety disengage yesterday: I was in the outermost of two left turn lanes at a red light, at the front, with cars stacked up in both turn lanes, and on the green light, we all drive straight under the bridge and start our lefts, but it tried to aim itself at the leftmost destination lane that the other line of cars had the right-of-way for. I disengaged quickly, but I bet the driver to my left was pretty scared. I know my wife was! It probably would've self-corrected before a direct collision, but it still was unsafe and terrible in that scenario.

The 11.4 release notes about feeding upcoming lane nav data into the FSD lane choice decisions should hopefully improve on these kinds of things.

The other thing that's frustrating me a lot is simple bad nav routing near neighborhoods, especially my own! Mostly this is about choosing winding paths though treacherous, slow, driveway-filled streets to shave 0.02 miles off the distance when humans would make the wiser choice to prefer the slightly larger main routes with no driveways.

Thinking about that problem as a programmer of traditional deterministic software (which the nav system almost certainly is), I would add a weighting system to virtually-double the length of roads with high driveway density, if that information is available.
 
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But what if you bought a $15,000 Sub Zero refrigerator that promised:
  • The freezer compartment will keep food frozen permanently for later use.
  • The light will illuminate when the door opens.
  • Ice cubes are made automatically.
  • The freezer can be defrosted automatically.
  • The refrigerator compartment will keep foods cold for a day.
Coming soon:
  • The refrigerator will keep foods cold permanently so that they don't spoil for weeks.
Now let's say that the "Coming soon" item never achieved that goal. Is the appliance worth the $15,000 that you paid for it?
A perfectly valid argument. If you feel the timetable is unreasonable, and you have exhausted all technical solutions (both user initiated and with the aid of service), there are others on TMC that have availed themselves of the legal system and received financial compensation from Tesla.
 
I want that smooth experience with no jerking off the steering yoke,
This is a valid criticism and I don't really know why they haven't paid attention to that.

Infact we had a whole thread on that ... and I was arguing its a defect and @Terminator857 was saying it is not ;)

 
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I think people need to remember that their FSDj experiences aren’t necessarily the same as the they are for other people in different locations with different models. There are too many inconsistencies that make it hard to compare, almost as we’re comparing different versions of iPhone with different versions of iOS. Yea, the basic concepts are the same, but the behavior isn’t.
 
This is a valid criticism and I don't really know why they haven't paid attention to that.

Infact we had a whole thread on that ... and I was arguing its a defect and @Terminator857 was saying it is not ;)

I may be wrong, but I think Ramph is talking about the wheel nag - having to apply slight torque to the wheel periodically. The "jerk" you alluded to was an actual physics term for g-forces.