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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Cone placement on the bird's eye view is still hit and miss.

I think car placement on the bird's eye view is so good because Tesla can use radar to train car distances on the forward facing cameras and then use that data to better estimate vehicle distances on the other cameras.

But cones and other "soft" objects (like trash bins) don't have a strong radar signal, so the estimation isn't good.

I see robotaxis as impossible unless Tesla can figure out how to accurately place cones on the bird's eye view.

Btw, I'm not sure if there was a calibration period or maybe I'm driving in the daylight, but 4.2 seems smoother at stopping today, almost perfect.

The cone placement is so bad, it's almost like it's part of a different system.

I've seen my car place cones in the middle of an intersection, and then proceed to drive straight through the phantom cones. Meanwhile, real cones and poles are pretty accurately represented as grey blobs by FSD Beta.
 
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2018 Model 3, Dual Motor, FSD, HW3, 11.4.2, 154K miles

Not a happy camper with 11.4.2 after a 10hr ride to/from upstate NY. I could not wait to try this version out based on the hype of social media postings, sadly a big disappointment.

Jogger/motorcycle/curve
Once out of the neighborhood I turned it on, came upon first 4 way intersection to make a left. All versions have struggled with this intersection if there are cars at the intersection and especially one approaching from ahead (no stop for our road). Jogger came from the residential neighborhood on the right running along the wide shoulder area. Jogger makes a left to continue on the shoulder to my right. Car comes to a complete stop on a 45mph road. Jogger is 6’ over on the shoulder. Car behind me has no idea why I stopped, cars ahead in the intersection, right side and left side have stop signs, they’re confused. I turn it off. Get out on another main road and turn it back on, 2 miles down the road it swerves off the road as two motorcycles on the other side of double yellow go by. They were in their lane, they weren’t swerving or doing anything goofy. Never had that happen in 4 ½ years. Little further up a curve it has always made, it again goes off the road heading for an apartment parking lot. Wife and passenger want it shut off until we get to highway. This all happened in the first 2 miles.

Highway
On the highway it does the stupid run to the end of merge lane, never signals then tries to get on highway. I have to hit the brakes and wait for car beside me to pass so I can merge. It had the entire run out lane to merge over, waits until there’s no more lane and then can’t get over and never signals. On the highway several times it ha put the blinker on but didn’t move over to passing lane. Car approaching slows when it sees the blinker, car turns blinker off, approaching car waits then begins to accelerate, cars turns blinker back on, approaching car slows again, car turns blinker off. I turn fsd off again until car has passed and then I changed lanes and turn it back on. This would happen off an on throughout the ride on all the different highways. It also wants to be in middle lane once it enters 3 lane highway. Other times I turn the blinker on manually to change lanes, sometimes it will and sometimes it won’t, the blue area will not appear. Turn it off, change lanes, turn it back on. It took a couple exits off highway without signaling. Gets to end of ramp at T intersection no cars as far as one can see in either direction, sits there taking forever to turn left, slowly inches forward. I turn it off again. What is it doing, there are no cars anywhere. Now the passenger is laughing at how messed up it is, what is it doing?

Phantom Brake
A Phantom braking on highway incident, haven't see that in over a year or two. Went from 72mph to 28mph. Yikes, that threw the cooler into the back of my seat, we all were thrown forward. No idea what triggered it. There was a motor coach towing a vehicle next to us on the right side, but we were nearly passed it. Only happened the one time, plus we passed that camper (Class A) several times on the highway without another incident.

Wrong lane intersection
Come upon an intersection with 3 lanes, left turn, straight and right turn, map shows go straight ahead, car stays in right lane, car does not get over just keeps going in the wrong lane, eventually it realizes it goes off the road into the white section where road splits the right and left lane, I shut it off, wait for cars on left to pass and then pull into straight lane. At another area it runs a red light. Ugh.

Cool feature from 11.3.6 is gone
Lost a freaky function from 11.3.6. When on highway in right lane with on ramp in the distance and car coming up or down the on ramp, the car would would put blinker on and move into the next lane on the left before it even got up there. First time it did it, I thought it was just a fluke, by the third time I was shocked. If there was no car on the ramp it didn’t change lanes. How does it know, can it really see that far ahead. I really liked that feature, that was spooky and made you think that this AI stuff is scary and maybe we can get to FSD. Sadly with 11.4.2 it just plows right ahead into the merging traffic, does not get over. Oh well, maybe it will come back.

Turning FSD back on – Fixed
They did fix the disappearing and reappearing steering wheel, so you can turn FSD back on, no more, sorry to slow, try again, sorry to slow try again…

Angled stop signs still cause it to brake even though they are for the side road.

Haven’t tried summon, so no comment.

Bottom line not happy at all. I thought this was going to be soooo much better. NOT!

Begs the question have we reached the capabilities of HW3 or FSD vision processing?

I hope others have a much better experience with 11.4.2. Be safe and keep testing.

Go Tesla
 
2018 Model 3, Dual Motor, FSD, HW3, 11.4.2, 154K miles

Not a happy camper with 11.4.2 after a 10hr ride to/from upstate NY. I could not wait to try this version out based on the hype of social media postings, sadly a big disappointment.

Jogger/motorcycle/curve
Once out of the neighborhood I turned it on, came upon first 4 way intersection to make a left. All versions have struggled with this intersection if there are cars at the intersection and especially one approaching from ahead (no stop for our road). Jogger came from the residential neighborhood on the right running along the wide shoulder area. Jogger makes a left to continue on the shoulder to my right. Car comes to a complete stop on a 45mph road. Jogger is 6’ over on the shoulder. Car behind me has no idea why I stopped, cars ahead in the intersection, right side and left side have stop signs, they’re confused. I turn it off. Get out on another main road and turn it back on, 2 miles down the road it swerves off the road as two motorcycles on the other side of double yellow go by. They were in their lane, they weren’t swerving or doing anything goofy. Never had that happen in 4 ½ years. Little further up a curve it has always made, it again goes off the road heading for an apartment parking lot. Wife and passenger want it shut off until we get to highway. This all happened in the first 2 miles.

Highway
On the highway it does the stupid run to the end of merge lane, never signals then tries to get on highway. I have to hit the brakes and wait for car beside me to pass so I can merge. It had the entire run out lane to merge over, waits until there’s no more lane and then can’t get over and never signals. On the highway several times it ha put the blinker on but didn’t move over to passing lane. Car approaching slows when it sees the blinker, car turns blinker off, approaching car waits then begins to accelerate, cars turns blinker back on, approaching car slows again, car turns blinker off. I turn fsd off again until car has passed and then I changed lanes and turn it back on. This would happen off an on throughout the ride on all the different highways. It also wants to be in middle lane once it enters 3 lane highway. Other times I turn the blinker on manually to change lanes, sometimes it will and sometimes it won’t, the blue area will not appear. Turn it off, change lanes, turn it back on. It took a couple exits off highway without signaling. Gets to end of ramp at T intersection no cars as far as one can see in either direction, sits there taking forever to turn left, slowly inches forward. I turn it off again. What is it doing, there are no cars anywhere. Now the passenger is laughing at how messed up it is, what is it doing?

Phantom Brake
A Phantom braking on highway incident, haven't see that in over a year or two. Went from 72mph to 28mph. Yikes, that threw the cooler into the back of my seat, we all were thrown forward. No idea what triggered it. There was a motor coach towing a vehicle next to us on the right side, but we were nearly passed it. Only happened the one time, plus we passed that camper (Class A) several times on the highway without another incident.

Wrong lane intersection
Come upon an intersection with 3 lanes, left turn, straight and right turn, map shows go straight ahead, car stays in right lane, car does not get over just keeps going in the wrong lane, eventually it realizes it goes off the road into the white section where road splits the right and left lane, I shut it off, wait for cars on left to pass and then pull into straight lane. At another area it runs a red light. Ugh.

Cool feature from 11.3.6 is gone
Lost a freaky function from 11.3.6. When on highway in right lane with on ramp in the distance and car coming up or down the on ramp, the car would would put blinker on and move into the next lane on the left before it even got up there. First time it did it, I thought it was just a fluke, by the third time I was shocked. If there was no car on the ramp it didn’t change lanes. How does it know, can it really see that far ahead. I really liked that feature, that was spooky and made you think that this AI stuff is scary and maybe we can get to FSD. Sadly with 11.4.2 it just plows right ahead into the merging traffic, does not get over. Oh well, maybe it will come back.

Turning FSD back on – Fixed
They did fix the disappearing and reappearing steering wheel, so you can turn FSD back on, no more, sorry to slow, try again, sorry to slow try again…

Angled stop signs still cause it to brake even though they are for the side road.

Haven’t tried summon, so no comment.

Bottom line not happy at all. I thought this was going to be soooo much better. NOT!

Begs the question have we reached the capabilities of HW3 or FSD vision processing?

I hope others have a much better experience with 11.4.2. Be safe and keep testing.

Go Tesla
Almost everything on social media that’s related to FSDj is clickbait and shill nonsense. There are only a couple of certain people who actually give you a real deal footage of how the junk is. The rest are just losers who work Elon’s marketing department for free.
 
Almost everything on social media that’s related to FSDj is clickbait and shill nonsense. There are only a couple of certain people who actually give you a real deal footage of how the junk is. The rest are just losers who work Elon’s marketing department for free.
The YouTube shills are the right extreme, your posts are the left far extreme. I weigh my experience between the two. Clickbait ——- Barkers.
 
what do you guys think, did 4.2 turn into the correct lane after this turn? I think so:

It looks like two cars in the adjacent lane turned onto the same lane as WMC’s car ahead of it, so FSD looks like it incorrectly got onto one lane over to the right - but I see your point, there is one more lane to the right of that which eventually merges.

However, if everyone else is doing it wrong, FSD doing right might make it worse as it doesn’t flow well with the rest of traffic.
 
From the descriptions it seems like interventions should happen earlier. Are you sending feedback to Tesla for each intervention?
I agree. It still makes mistakes and I never allow it to continue to the point that it becomes a safety issue. The only people who gain from zero intervention drives are YouTubers. For the rest of us intervene as soon as you see it about to make a mistake.
 
From the descriptions it seems like interventions should happen earlier. Are you sending feedback to Tesla for each intervention?
Yes, it's part of beta testing. I could be an anomly, others may not have same experience. The vast majority of the trip was incident free and worked like it should. I just pulled the areas that need refinement. Letting the code warriors know, wow, this is great, doesn't help them fix areas with issues.
 
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More miles this morning, 11.4.2 is definitely an improvement over 11.3.6. Both highway and city driving feel a lot better. Car exits the passing lane sooner on the highway, seems a little more assertive around town. Lane choices are sooner/better around town. One trouble spot I’ve always had is now fixed. Lots more to test this week though.
 
The YouTube shills are the right extreme, your posts are the left far extreme. I weigh my experience between the two. Clickbait ——- Barkers.
If there wasn’t “extreme right”, there wouldn’t have to be “extreme left”. I fell for the shills nonsense and wasted $10k on the junk. If there was more naysayers when I did my research, I would’ve been more hesitant and might’ve stayed clear until it’s polished enough to be useful.
 
Turning FSD back on – Fixed
They did fix the disappearing and reappearing steering wheel, so you can turn FSD back on, no more, sorry to slow, try again, sorry to slow try again…
Thank you for mentioning this. That was my worst problem with 11.3.6 because if you can't engage, you can't evaluate. So now I'm becoming less patient for 11.4.2.

Yes, I see there is a new 1,000 more cars pending this morning, but my wife has our MY out on the road today... Plus, this wave will still leave 2,000 or so on 11.3.6. Still, it looks like they are headed for a complete roll-out, fingers crossed.
 
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