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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Here is my take on problematic lane changes.

- There has been some change in preference. FSD now likes to drive on the left lane of a 2 lane road in the city. Probably some more rules like that.
- FSD aggressively changes lanes when it gets to a traffic jam according to nav+traffic data
- Map changes
See, I think the “minimal lane changes for current drive” might help with the traffic jam issue. I still haven’t tried it in the spot that had hella issues for me since the map update, but perhaps tomorrow.
 
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My biggest lane failures last couple versions have 100% been when it moves into a right turn lane that's actually a much earlier one than it needs, and which turns into someplace I'm not actually going.

In one case it wasn't even a road it was turning into.... and in 100% of cases it never recognized the island coming up as it having made a mistake and it just makes the off-route right if I don't take back over in time.

See example below from Today-- the box in red is where it actually got over and turned right. The box in green is where it actually should have. The right it should have take is an actual intersection with lights. The one it took instead is the parking lot for a company.

badrightlane.png
 
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I am happy that the 2023.12.xx crowd will continue to get regular updates. Because we are stuck with 11.3.6 for the duration it seems.
11.3.6 was my favorite version so far! I wish I could go back to that one! 11.4.3 has some goodness, but it is constantly jumping into turn lanes when it needs to go straight, and it's keeping me on my toes!
 
My biggest lane failures last couple versions have 100% been when it moves into a right turn lane that's actually a much earlier one than it needs, and which turns into someplace I'm not actually going.
I used to have this issue in 69.x .. but I've not driven those routes in 11.x.

I guess some kind of a rule that thinks if there is a right turn lane FSD can see within X meters of a turn, that must be it. They need to check against the map before jumping to conclusions.
 
I had 4 disengagements with FSD 11.4.3 today.

1. I ignored the suggested route and chose a different route in the opposite direction. After the car recognized my selection and displayed the new direction on the map, I engaged FSD. After a short distance FSD showed a new route going around the neighborhood. I seemed it wanted to ask me to detour to go back to the opposite direction to get back to the original route. I never had this in my neighborhood with the previous versions.

2. FSD took the rightmost lane of the 2 lane ramp to enter freeway. Suddenly the car moved to the left lane. Both lanes were occupied with many cars during slow traffic.

3. FSD signaled to make left turn then entered the designated left turn lane. Then it jumped back to the original right lane. I jerked the wheel back to the left. FSD was automatically disengaged but TAAC was still on and the car moved fast (probably because green light was on). Tesla should disable TAAC when FSD is disengaged - it's easy to get into accident with this behavior.

4. FSD jumped to the left lane to avoid the bus. But on the left there was an Amazon delivery truck too. The move was unnecessary because the bus was not close to my car.

I will not let 11.4.3 to make turns on city streets anymore. I will only use it on straight city streets and freeways.

I need 11.4.4 right away to see if it fixes the above issues.
 
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If I’m wrong then I certainly applaud your optimism..lol.

No sarcasm.

Seems like a pretty significant issue..no?

Not really. In reality people are driving the car, there is a lot of latitude (people generally don’t hit people driving badly), and it is possible the car would stop albeit at an inappropriate location (no idea; I just stop it before ever finding out).

I’m surprised there have not been more accidents because of this specific scenario.
See above. Just pretty unlikely. Unquestionably increases risk on right turns though for this specific type of accident. Whether or not it increases overall danger I have no idea.

I would think this scenario would need to be addressed to be considered better than the average driver per Elon’s comments on the earnings call?
Really have no idea. It depends on what type of average he means probably. The median driver is probably much better than the mean driver (don’t know).
 
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Got 11.4.3 last night. Unusually for me, after the download and before running around with it, gave the car a two scroll wheel reset, followed by a power down from the safety menu.

Interestingly, the car doesn’t stay powered down. Lights mostly go off, but the ones on the steering wheel stay on; and, after a few minutes, the car turns all the way back on again. Tried that three times and the car simply wouldn’t turn off and stay that way. Hmm.

So, left and made two runs: one all on local roads, the other on a mixture of local and interstates. Since it was late out without much traffic, let the car do its thing.

Car navigated out of the complex sans trouble. At the first left onto the main street, did it’s usual bit of sneaking out, slowly, while looking for traffic, the taking off. It works: but, when it’s got a good view up and down the road, why creep 3/4 of the way out, then take off?

Next intersection is an UPL onto a major two lane road. Snuck up to its self-made blue line, waited for traffic to clear, then took off cleanly.

Took this to a protected left. On the way, passed through an area where there was effectively two lanes going forward, without lane markers, and the car stuck closer to the double yellow on the left, an improvement.

At the protected left, which was red, the car abruptly slowed to a crawl 100’ short of the line, then picked up a bit more speed creeping up to the car ahead. Odd, but, while there wasn’t anything in the way of traffic, there were a bunch of traffic cones visible to the car elsewhere in the intersection. Special handling for cones? Light went green and the car made a smooth left, then picked the correct forward lane. Went slowly at 25 mph for an hundred yards until it saw the 50mph sign. Map problem?

Road is being worked on. A mile or so up there were cones lining all the lanes. The car abruptly braked and crept at 15-20 through the coned area. Suspect some special handling for construction zones. This wasn’t, apparently, helped by, after a couple hundred yards of this, running into a parade of largish construction vehicles with yellow flashing lights. They may have been there to get rid of the cones. They all did a slow-motion u-turn and cleared the road; at which point the car stopped its overly cautious driving and started going at normal speeds.

For the next two miles to the destination there were two lane roads that had one lane to the left or right at intersections, followed by one or two lanes straight ahead to the next light, and so on. Car never picked a wrong lane, unusual given all the comments here. Navigated to the destination and I parked the car.

So: unless one counts gassing it a bit here and there, made it with no interventions.

Next trip was from the first stop to a Staples some 8 miles away. First lighted intersection with a protected right was one of those with a stop line at the light (there was a car there already), a bit of a space, then a thick white line with a “Don’t Block Intersection” sign. There was room for the Tesla behind the other car, but the Tesla elected to wait at the thick secondary stop.

Light went green, the car successfully navigated the right turn, then navigated the road which turned and forked, the right fork becoming an on-ramp to a five lane interstate running at speed.

Car still waits to the end of the ramp to merge.

About a half mile up, this particular section of road has two lanes peeling off to the right, with the left of those two lanes forking. The car moved one lane to the left rather rapidly, stayed there, and properly took the left fork, sans problems. Two more lanes appeared on the right, then these degenerated into off ramps, leaving the car in the rightmost of a three straight ahead interstate. At which point the car got into the center travel lane on its own. All very smooth.

A few miles up there appeared my exit, a one-lane ramp which became two. The rightmost of these becomes a double right turn lane at a protected right; the leftmost stays single to a (sharp) protected left. Car stayed in the correct lane, no fuddling around, took the left, and promptly got into the correct rightmost lane, then shifted into an even more right lane, and did a semi-protected right. This was a right-on-red ramp, with zero cross traffic, but there were red lights for the straight-ahead double lanes. Which apparently confused the car; it kinda got stuck not wanting to go past all those red lights, and so had to gas it until it got further up in its own lane, at which point it got moving again.

A mile or so up it took the appropriate off-ramp, navigated a straight-through stop sign into the Staples parking lot (not too slowly), and stopped in front of the store.

One intervention if one counts gassing it through that right turn. No improper lane selections, period.

Rest of the way back home through multiple intersections, lane changes, and so on were pretty much without incident. However, it appears that Tesla may have slain a bug. I’ve been complaining that on 11.4.2 the car’s reacquired a nasty bug where it would slew right on a left turn on wideish roads. In some light traffic, going down a wide major two-lane road, it did an unprotected left onto a local road and stayed to the left before the turn. A bit jerky going through, but as good as 10.69 had been doing it. I’ll have to test this some more over the next couple days and confirm.

Conclusion: better than 11.4.2. Still not perfect. No improper lane selections noted, period. Three moderate distance drives with no safety interventions. Possible fix of a slew-right-on-left-red bug.
 
Testing 11.4.3 with stop signs with exception like “Right turn keep moving”. My experience remains that this signage is treated as a standard stop. This not unsafe but not ideal.

At another difficult protected left that requires a middle lane selection when ending the turn (sorry Chuck), the required lane was selected correctly in heavy traffic so avoided a common intervention point.

Biggest question for me as an investor is whether we are seeing a durable uptick in the rate of code releases.
 
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I jerked the wheel back to the left. FSD was automatically disengaged but TAAC was still on and the car moved fast (probably because green light was on). Tesla should disable TAAC when FSD is disengaged - it's easy to get into accident with this behavior.
+1 on this, for the same reasons. It' insane to have the car still trying to do any sort of auto driving when you have clearly tried to take control. It should hand over complete control after ANY manual steering or brake input.
 
1. I ignored the suggested route and chose a different route in the opposite direction. After the car recognized my selection and displayed the new direction on the map, I engaged FSD. After a short distance FSD showed a new route going around the neighborhood. I seemed it wanted to ask me to detour to go back to the opposite direction to get back to the original route. I never had this in my neighborhood with the previous versions.
To be fair, this is a maps/nav error, not FSD .. the car would have done the same even if you had been driving manually. (Well, I assume so, I've never heard anyone suggest the nav system takes account of who is driving.)
 
. I jerked the wheel back to the left. FSD was automatically disengaged but TAAC was still on and the car moved fast (probably because green light was on). Tesla should disable TAAC when FSD is disengaged - it's easy to get into accident with this behavior.

Given TACC (in theory) slows down with objects ahead to avoid hitting them- how would it be easy to get into an accident if TACC remains on?

I've actually thought about this BTW, because I agree initially it seems weird... but if TACC turns off, you immediately get regen braking without obvious reason, which seems MORE likely to cause an accident by a tailgater than continuing to drive with active cruise on would?

Testing 11.4.3 with stop signs with exception like “Right turn keep moving”. My experience remains that this signage is treated as a standard stop. This not unsafe but not ideal.


AFAIK FSDb does not read any signs, of any kind, other than STOP, Speed limits (standard only- won't understand contextual ones), and sometimes, but not reliably, yield signs.
 
AFAIK FSDb does not read any signs, of any kind, other than STOP, Speed limits (standard only- won't understand contextual ones), and sometimes, but not reliably, yield signs.
I find I have issues here in Pennsylvania where stop signs are bolted to anything they can, telephone poles, sides of buildings, you name it. It has confused FSDb several times. Also signs that are stop "except tight turn" throw it for a loop.
 
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