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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Can anyone parse this out (rhetorical) to make sense. 🧐

Elon on 11.4.7 "...Rolls out to anyone who bought FSD in the North America next week."🤔
(I know an Elon timeline is about as relevant as what time is it in Andromeda.)

If so it looks like we "Early Access" testers deserve one of Elon's "amnesty" programs.

Does this mean next week we get something like:
23.26.20/11.4.7 for anyone
23.7.30/11.4.7 for "Early Access" testers

Well that makes perfect stupidity sense. 🤬

Fast forward a month and will it be:
23.32.10/11.5.2 for anyone
23.7.40/11.4.8 for "Early Access" testers

December:
23.44.10/12.2 for anyone
23.7.50/11.4.9 for "Early Access" testers
 
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Does this mean HW Model Ys aren’t getting FSD for 6 months?
Nobody really knows but I think this means that there will multiple FSD beta branches depending on HW version. HW3 will have the most bleeding edge FSD features (but probably behind production as far as other software features). HW4 might have iterative updates but will probably have more up to date production software features.

Is that what others think will happen also?
 
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So for everyone who said HW3 was a dead end and wouldn't get any significant upgrades nice to see that's not the case. Maybe that will help pull this thread out of the negative doldrums.
From the investor thread
Yeah, the entire subforum is taken over by TSLAQ and other Tesla hating nutters.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable



"
 
Nobody really knows but I think this means that there will multiple FSD beta branches depending on HW version. HW3 will have the most bleeding edge FSD features (but probably behind production as far as other software features). HW4 might have iterative updates but will probably have more up to date production software features.

Is that what others think will happen also?
Can anyone parse this out (rhetorical) to make sense. 🧐

Elon on 11.4.7 "...Rolls out to anyone who bought FSD in the North America next week."🤔
(I know an Elon timeline is about as relevant as what time is it in Andromeda.)

If so it looks like we "Early Access" testers deserve one of Elon's "amnesty" programs.

Does this mean next week we get something like:
23.26.20/11.4.7 for anyone
23.7.30/11.4.7 for "Early Access" testers

Well that makes perfect stupidity sense. 🤬

Fast forward a month and will it be:
23.32.10/11.5.2 for anyone
23.7.40/11.4.8 for "Early Access" testers

December:
23.44.10/12.2 for anyone
23.7.50/11.4.9 for "Early Access" testers
Hopefully, it gets worked out as it is quite a mess with the umpteen FSD version.

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For me it seems like the value of FSD beta does seem to have gone significantly up after the livestream. I understand why Elon won't reduce the price to buy FSD outright and is pushing more people to subscribe as well.

They have the data and compute and engineering talent advantage over all these other AV companies and will definitely get to generalized autonomy before others. It feels like by this time next year FSD beta will likely be used in multiple countries and always improving by being fed video data continuously.

To me the craziest thing about the livestream was that Elon had an 85 mph max set on his car the entire time and the car was just going at a reasonable pace the entire time. Not too slow nor too fast. Just like a human would do - humans don't have "hard max" speed limits but use the information we have available to us to make speed decisions which includes things like speed limits, traffic, school zones, pedestrians etc. When a situation demands a boost of power to overtake someone for convenience or safety, humans exceed those limits for short time and then resume what is correct.
 
[A Must Watch]DAMN if AI Driver did't do a pretty good 10 minute job of analyzing V12 and critiquing Elon's drive.

There seems to be some clear problems with this approach long term.
  • I don't think this will pass NHTSA (stop sign, speed control ...). -- how will they get around this.
  • It doesn't give users any control (following distance 1-7/chill | avg | assert; excessive lane changes). -- There are some trust issues here, especially with passengers (ie. often people use Chill with passengers/spouse).
  • Humans drive WAY differently in big cities in China, India, Russia, and USA. As well as way differently in busy cities vs slightly rural vs rural. -- how will this be reconciled?
 
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For me it seems like the value of FSD beta does seem to have gone significantly up after the livestream. I understand why Elon won't reduce the price to buy FSD outright and is pushing more people to subscribe as well.

They have the data and compute and engineering talent advantage over all these other AV companies and will definitely get to generalized autonomy before others. It feels like by this time next year FSD beta will likely be used in multiple countries and always improving by being fed video data continuously.

To me the craziest thing about the livestream was that Elon had an 85 mph max set on his car the entire time and the car was just going at a reasonable pace the entire time. Not too slow nor too fast. Just like a human would do - humans don't have "hard max" speed limits but use the information we have available to us to make speed decisions which includes things like speed limits, traffic, school zones, pedestrians etc. When a situation demands a boost of power to overtake someone for convenience or safety, humans exceed those limits for short time and then resume what is correct.
The value will only go up when it has value.

I stopped my subscription and that video gave me no desire to re-subscribe. MAYBE one day!!
 
[A Must Watch]DAMN if AI Driver did't do a pretty good 10 minute job of analyzing V12 and critiquing Elon's drive.

I tried watching the original stream so many times but just gave up. Seriously had "Boomer's first tiktok" vibes. It's amazing he was able to decode the shitty recording quality to gleam anything from the video.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the things we saw are from the fabled 'Elon mode.' Like I don't think we'll be allowed to set fsd to 85 everywhere, and I bet he had nags and eye tracking disabled. Iirc greentheonly said Elon mode had softer breaking too but, given how smooth those turns looked, I wouldn't be surprised if the breaking behavior was due more to v12.

Edit: oh I got 11.4.7 last night, updating from 11.4.4. I don't drive much since I work from home, so no driving impressions atm.
 
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For me it seems like the value of FSD beta does seem to have gone significantly up after the livestream. I understand why Elon won't reduce the price to buy FSD outright and is pushing more people to subscribe as well.

They have the data and compute and engineering talent advantage over all these other AV companies and will definitely get to generalized autonomy before others. It feels like by this time next year FSD beta will likely be used in multiple countries and always improving by being fed video data continuously.

To me the craziest thing about the livestream was that Elon had an 85 mph max set on his car the entire time and the car was just going at a reasonable pace the entire time. Not too slow nor too fast. Just like a human would do - humans don't have "hard max" speed limits but use the information we have available to us to make speed decisions which includes things like speed limits, traffic, school zones, pedestrians etc. When a situation demands a boost of power to overtake someone for convenience or safety, humans exceed those limits for short time and then resume what is correct.
Could anyone read what the text was above his mph? The only time I see text there is in chill mode. It didn't say chill.
 
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