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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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There's not too much braking action here but still a typical example of FSD over reacting to a distant cross path vehicle well outside any range of concern. The FSD team has claimed sizeable improvements to this scenario and yet the issue is as bad as ever. He's running 11.4.9.

Yep - this is exactly why they said that they needed to stop using radar. It did improve a while ago, but now it's just as bad as the radar days, maybe even slightly worse.
The "warning" car can be 50 yards down the junction and my car is still braking for it.
 
The easiest way to tell is the front camera housing. The cameras are much larger and look like they have shutters. My understanding is that all model 3s with the exception of highland are hw3. View attachment 1001599
Um. So, went into the garage. On one side, there's a 2021 MY. On the other side, there's my 2023 M3.

I couldn't take a decent picture of each, too much in the way of reflections. But, peering in, there's no question: The MY's and the M3's cameras are different. The M3's aren't particularly larger than the MY's, but two of them have little plastic doo-dads that are rectangular, are around the lens, and make me think, "Lens shields!". No evidence of a red center but, like I said, lots of reflections. The lens-shieldish bits of plastic seem to resemble the bits of plastic around the left and right cameras in your picture.

The MY's cameras are set flush in their panel, no plastic doo-dads/lens shields present.

Stuff like this drives me batty. One would think that somewhere there'd be some obvious text saying this-or-that. I did get into the Service Menu on the M3, but there wasn't anything about which computer was which.

So, looking at the clues (the fender cameras definitely have a red dot on the M3, nothing like that on the MY) and the above differences on the windshield camera, I'm taking a wild guess that it's a HW4 car. But if somebody comes up with a more definitive test than wandering around in the garage with a flashlight, I'd love to hear it.
 
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Yep - this is exactly why they said that they needed to stop using radar. It did improve a while ago, but now it's just as bad as the radar days, maybe even slightly worse.
The "warning" car can be 50 yards down the junction and my car is still braking for it.
It's clear they have perception, so this is down to planning, which can be trained.
 
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There's not too much braking action here but still a typical example of FSD over reacting to a distant cross path vehicle well outside any range of concern. The FSD team has claimed sizeable improvements to this scenario and yet the issue is as bad as ever. He's running 11.4.9.

It’s been inconsistent but improving for me. At first it would brake for any car in its path. The current version still does that sometimes but often time does exactly what a human would do, estimating the trajectory of the car and only slowing down if necessary.
 
if somebody comes up with a more definitive test than wandering around in the garage with a flashlight, I'd love to hear it.
I believe Tesla started switching the new supplier 5MP cameras (up from 1.2MP) before HW4 computers where presumably it works with HW3 computer by simulating old camera resolution (1 pixel of 2x2). Unless this got fixed with 11.4.9, if you go into "service" mode (long press on "Model 3" header in software screen and type in "service"), HW3 shows up as "Full self-driving computer" for Autopilot Hardware whereas HW4 shows up blank. I just checked with 2023.44.1 for HW4 X, and it was still showing blank, and 2023.44.30.4 for HW3 Y shows text as usual.
 
Pretty close! Some reason .5 wasn't good enough (maybe fixing the issue that resulted in pulling pending updates?), so it's 2023.44.30.5.1. Again going to the same TeslaFi vehicle that has gotten each of these updates earlier.
I’m not different. I’m not better. That being said, if this was preventing me from getting the update I’d be so furious.


Though I got it. So now this makes me laugh…. hard.


Maybe I’m a horrible person. I should be rich! Where’s my wealth?
 
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Mixed bad with 11.4.9 (2023.44.30.4)

Just 1 drive but a few initial impressions. Too soon to fully judge.
  • Creep- Stop sign creeping seemed to be improved. At least FSD didn't launch without looking.
  • No painted center line- Still awful. Drives in the middle of the road and annoys oncoming cars who obviously want to know what the heck I'm doing.
  • On the same road minor phantom braking of 2-3 mph. 1/3 mile long road and slows down several times so super annoying. Same behavior as every FSD release I've ever had on this road. Going back over 2 years.
  • Highway exit- Navigation shows me the correct exit and the display looks perfect except FSD tried to take the wrong exit. Same as 11.4.4 where sometimes it takes the right exit and sometimes it takes the wrong exit. Major clover leaf.
  • Large roundabout. Came to a full stop just like 11.4.4. Normal behavior is to enter at 20mph with no cars coming. 5% of the time FSD only slows down to 2mph. If someone is behind me I always accelerate thru to avoid getting honked at.
Tomorrow I have a 175 mile drive so will be interested to see how that goes.

After a long drive today on 11.4.9 after using 11.4.4 for a long time I was disappointed. Just seemed to be more of the same.
  • Over reacted with phantom braking multiple times to cars approaching from side streets. Worse than before. It was particularly bad when cars were exiting a highway and approaching the end of the exit ramp that dumps out to the street I was on. Whenever there is a car slowing down at the end of the exit ramp(s) FSD brakes and slows down to about 20mph from 40mph.
  • Lots of hesitations requiring the accelerator
  • Wanted to follow other cars thru an intersection where it was obvious my car would have been stranded in no man's land blocking a highway exit ramp. Disengaged and didn't enter the intersection. Sure enough the light turned red so disengaging was the right decision. I know this is really hard for FSD just as it is for humans who make that mistake all the time.
  • Highway no change. Still works pretty well but continues to take too long when cars are coming up behind to move over. Otherwise I can drive for 100+ miles without any interventions.
  • Still hate when you right click on the stalk and FSD automatically moves the setting for Chill/Average/Assertive. I'm doing this to change the lane change option and don't want other setting changed too.
Other then perhaps improvement using creep behavior I cannot think of a single thing 11.4.9 does better than 11.4.4. Was hoping for better after going over 4 months between FSD upgrades. Maybe FSD will get better over the next couple of weeks.

If the "holy grail" V12 doesn't work significantly better FSD is in real trouble. Hoping end to end AI will really help.
 
I believe Tesla started switching the new supplier 5MP cameras (up from 1.2MP) before HW4 computers where presumably it works with HW3 computer by simulating old camera resolution (1 pixel of 2x2). Unless this got fixed with 11.4.9, if you go into "service" mode (long press on "Model 3" header in software screen and type in "service"), HW3 shows up as "Full self-driving computer" for Autopilot Hardware whereas HW4 shows up blank. I just checked with 2023.44.1 for HW4 X, and it was still showing blank, and 2023.44.30.4 for HW3 Y shows text as usual.
Then, it's solved: Yup, got a HW3 computer in there. Both the MY and the M3 in the garage report "Full self-driving computer" in the Service Menu, which means that HW4 is not present.

My bad.
 
Um. So, went into the garage. On one side, there's a 2021 MY. On the other side, there's my 2023 M3.

I couldn't take a decent picture of each, too much in the way of reflections. But, peering in, there's no question: The MY's and the M3's cameras are different. The M3's aren't particularly larger than the MY's, but two of them have little plastic doo-dads that are rectangular, are around the lens, and make me think, "Lens shields!". No evidence of a red center but, like I said, lots of reflections. The lens-shieldish bits of plastic seem to resemble the bits of plastic around the left and right cameras in your picture.

The MY's cameras are set flush in their panel, no plastic doo-dads/lens shields present.

Stuff like this drives me batty. One would think that somewhere there'd be some obvious text saying this-or-that. I did get into the Service Menu on the M3, but there wasn't anything about which computer was which.

So, looking at the clues (the fender cameras definitely have a red dot on the M3, nothing like that on the MY) and the above differences on the windshield camera, I'm taking a wild guess that it's a HW4 car. But if somebody comes up with a more definitive test than wandering around in the garage with a flashlight, I'd love to hear it.
This may help. Or not, I have not tried it.

 
It's clear they have perception, so this is down to planning, which can be trained.
agreed - and they trained it once before. But the excuse previously was that it was all the fault of radar and that vision was the fix. Now on the vision only stack the cross traffic issue has somehow come back. So they've managed to get the new vision system to work as badly as the previous "broken" radar.
 
2023.44.30.2/FSD 11.4.9 ran red light when making left turn this morning.
My car was stopping at the intersection of a small street and a main street. While it was waiting for the green light to make left turn to the main street, a long big truck from the main street made a left turn to the small street. When the long truck was still in the middle of the intersection, my car moved slowly to the middle of the intersection (the truck blocked the street light in front of my car. I thought the green light was on). Right after the truck went past the middle of intersection, my car began to make left turn to the main street and I saw that the red light was still on and I disengaged FSD and accelarated fast to the main street. There were no cars close behind my car on the main street (lucky me). It looked like FSD used the big truck as a shield for my car to make left turn.
 
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2023.44.30.x actually still had installs even after it was pulled from many vehicles, and it seems like those installs today were mostly 2022+. Similarly, 2023.44.30.5.1 so far seems to be going mostly to older 3/Y before 2022, so perhaps there was an issue with Intel Atom but not AMD Ryzen?
 
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2023.44.30.x actually still had installs even after it was pulled from many vehicles, and it seems like those installs today were mostly 2022+. Similarly, 2023.44.30.5.1 so far seems to be going mostly to older 3/Y before 2022, so perhaps there was an issue with Intel Atom but not AMD Ryzen?
Our 2016 model s just got the 30.4 pushed (2am eastern time dec 22nd). 2023 model s and x still don’t have any update. Model s is 27.7 model x still has factory firmware 200.2.
 
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