Like I said. Give me the timestamp. I watched it, I only saw him driving manually straight, waiting, then last minute decide to turn right.
As for the rest of your ramble, you clearly are not here to have a productive debate but to ruin any debate.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
FSD discussion
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Like I said. Give me the timestamp. I watched it, I only saw him driving manually straight, waiting, then last minute decide to turn right.
As for the rest of your ramble, you clearly are not here to have a productive debate but to ruin any debate.
But they made cars to take advantage of Electrify America?
What's said in the public for PR is different than what actually happens in deal making.
I would call that refusing. But licensing is not one-sided as you portray and its definitely not the party who is looking to license that is holding all the cards. Infact its completely the opposite. OEMs don't go to Mobileye and say, okay we want all your chips for $1. My interpretation on what Jim said is that Tesla weren't interested overall in doing a deal at all which is why he had to call Elon and then had to even convince Elon to agree on the call.
So OEMs offered tesla a bad deal but good deal to Electrify America?
If sweetening the terms of the deal were what got it done then Elon wouldn't have been called and in-addition, he wouldn't have needed to be convinced. What was he convinced by? It certainly wasn't a better deal. If offering a better deal was what was necessary, then Jim wouldn't have called Elon to convince him on the call.
No where does it say that Ford or any of the OEM are actually PAYING tesla for that access, not from the OEMs and not from Tesla. (Not saying that couldn't be happening)
No slight of anything. Even in 2021 Elon were still making the same statements.
And yet again what is done in public for PR is different to what happens in deal making.
We don't know what the discussions internally with FSD is about. We don't know what terms and data OEMs are looking at.
We don't know what price point Tesla is offering them. But as you agreed with me, If the value proposition is good for OEMs. They will license.
My point is, they are NOW starting to license, and they are not picking Tesla.
The Chinese OEMs are picking Huawei, Mobileye and Horizon, the western OEMs are picking Mobileye or forming partnerships with either themselves (honda and gm, stellantis and bmw) or other tech providers (mercedes and Nvidia).
Meaning they don't like the current value-proposition that Tesla is offering.
You on the other hand might conclude it as: "They are offering bad deals to Tesla and good deal to Mobileye and others".
But as Mobileye's CEO Amnon would say (whether you think he's right or wrong):
What the actual F. 110k supervision users and not one video of it in action by customers but all from mobileeye on YouTube.
Agreed, Arguments based on "the car cant do X as well as a human" even if true dont mean "the car is worse than a human" since they ignore the many cases where "a human cant do X as well as the car".
Customer videos are all EAP on hwy, mobile eye videos are fsdish. Point me to a hour worth of city streets in China from a Customer.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Keep in mind EA only exists because VW engaged in massive fraud and opening (fairly crappy) EV chargers was part of the settlement.
For for years they didn't seem to give much thought or care to HOW the cars charged because they weren't actually serious about selling EVs. See again the bolts insanely terrible fast charge max and that's the vast majority of all EVs GM has ever sold for example. Or the E-golfs over at VW that was the vast majority of all their EVs ever sold until very recently.
Citation required.
What we KNOW for a fact:
Elon, and the CTO, said almost 10 years ago if an OEM wants to make a fair deal for access-- Tesla will do so.
Years later when Ford offered to make a fair deal-- Tesla agreed.
Soon after, nearly every other car company made a similar deal to which Tesla agreed.
You would call turning down a bad deal as refusing to be willing to make a deal? Especially when once fair deals were offered they made them, with everyone?
That's some insane troll logic there to keep your tesla hate-on going my dude.
You keep pretending EA is a serious business. It's not. It's the forced result of a legal settlement.
They didn't really have a CHOICE about making good deals with OEMs to access the network-- there were so few non-Tesla EVs on the road (in the US especially) it would've just been a deeper money sink without it.
As recently as last year Elon required personal approval for each individual hire at Tesla.
You think a massive change like opening the network didn't require talking to Elon?
Again you're making up a fantasy-land narrative and ignoring actual facts and history.
The cars are paying higher rates to charge than Teslas are. That's a fact.
Or did you not know that?
It's a pretty obvious place there would have been some potential negotiations.
Another would be the adapters for legacy cars that needed them--- Tesla is supplying those at some price while OEMs are giving them free to owners. Or did you not know that either?
Yes- which makes it extra weird you keep pretending he was never serious. Especially when Tesla went ahead and did it themselves before the Ford deal in Europe (where the charge standard wasn't an issue)
Not in this case though.
They spent years saying they'd make a fair deal for access.
An OEM finally offered one- and they made the deal. Then all the other car companies got on board.
End of story.
Not sure why you have to keep making up ELON SUCKS narratives to try and change that.
Like I said, give me $100 to do your own research for you. I already had to provide you the link free because I guess your google is broken.
(that said at least one of the "he had to turn manually" bits was because the car couldn't see well enough with the b-pillar which is kind of the entire point of the video)
I think this misses the point.
If the car is say 5x better at lane changing because it can look multiple directions at once- but is 5x worse at going through visually obstructed intersections safely because the B-pillar angle sucks- that's not going to be an acceptable robotaxi.
The system will need to do ANY of the DDT at minimum no worse than the average human.... and do MANY (but not necessarily all) parts of it better, before it'll be generally acceptable to take the human out of the loop.
Last edited:
Since it's the weekend:
Everyone is getting 12.3 but me! My friend just texted:
"Impressive. Just drove me from home to Steiner aquatic zero interventions and not even close to an intervention. Handled everything like a normal human at all the trouble spots that 11 could never figure out. This is what we've been waiting for."
Just a reminder that RoboTaxi is estimated to be worth $2Trillion. TSLA currently at $544 Billion. A forward looking market will start to add the valuation BEFORE the product is actually to market (ARK was buying more on Friday). Getting in after is missing the boat. A poor Q1 delivery growth between high volume production ramps is to be expected and should be a minor blip in the bigger picture (and should be priced in by the 31% year to date drop in the SP). But being right with the wrong timing is still being wrong in option trading....
Edit - I can already hear Knightshade furiously smashing keys on his keyboard...
Everyone is getting 12.3 but me! My friend just texted:
"Impressive. Just drove me from home to Steiner aquatic zero interventions and not even close to an intervention. Handled everything like a normal human at all the trouble spots that 11 could never figure out. This is what we've been waiting for."
Just a reminder that RoboTaxi is estimated to be worth $2Trillion. TSLA currently at $544 Billion. A forward looking market will start to add the valuation BEFORE the product is actually to market (ARK was buying more on Friday). Getting in after is missing the boat. A poor Q1 delivery growth between high volume production ramps is to be expected and should be a minor blip in the bigger picture (and should be priced in by the 31% year to date drop in the SP). But being right with the wrong timing is still being wrong in option trading....
Edit - I can already hear Knightshade furiously smashing keys on his keyboard...
Last edited:
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Since it's the weekend:
Everyone is getting 12.3 but me! My friend just texted:
"Impressive. Just drove me from home to Steiner aquatic zero interventions and not even close to an intervention. Handled everything like a normal human at all the trouble spots that 11 could never figure out. This is what we've been waiting for."
Just a reminder that RoboTaxi is estimated to be worth $2Trillion. TSLA currently at $544 Billion. A forward looking market will start to add the valuation BEFORE the product is actually to market (ARK was buying more on Friday). Getting in after is missing the boat. A poor Q1 delivery growth between high volume production ramps is to be expected and should be a minor blip in the bigger picture (and should be priced in by the 31% year to date drop in the SP). But being right with the wrong timing is still being wrong in option trading....
Edit - I can already hear Knightshade furiously smashing keys on his keyboard...
Naah this one is brief and easy-- go read the threads on this in the FSD forums... plenty of 12.3 folks have found things it does worse than 11 (myself included), despite it doing other things better. It certainly seems, anecdotally anyway, a net improvement. But still quite a distance between here and robotaxi. (folks seeing 12.3 hitting curbs, running red lights, swaying within the lane, widespread reports of driving too slow, etc)
Also before you point to ARK as a guide for any trading behavior you might want to look at the actual results of their funds over the years-- last I checked they were all worse than if you'd just put the $ into an S&P 500 index fund. Cathie got crazy lucky when throwing darts years ago to hit Tesla (and if you read any of their "analysis" all the details turned out largely wrong too- it really was dumb luck) and it's pretty much hot garbage outside of that.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
L5 is a non-starter. Forget some edge case - can they handle normal traffic in places like India ? How about hairpin bends in the Himalayas ?
I think we should only talk about L4.
Timestamp to where he had to turn? I didn't see FSD on, the car was just sitting there displaying FSD path prediction in gray, not in blue.
And we are talking about right turn where side camera is not good enough, not going straight where b-pillar is not enough.
Update - N of only 1..., but....
My friend that tried 12.3 this morning after getting the update on his Model Y, was so impressed that he just purchased FSD for his Model S. He was previously so disappointed with FSD on the Model Y that he had refused to buy it again when he ordered his Model S. I wonder how many owners of the millions of FSD capable cars will now buy the software because of the new FSD update. We are talking $Billions in pure profit.
My friend that tried 12.3 this morning after getting the update on his Model Y, was so impressed that he just purchased FSD for his Model S. He was previously so disappointed with FSD on the Model Y that he had refused to buy it again when he ordered his Model S. I wonder how many owners of the millions of FSD capable cars will now buy the software because of the new FSD update. We are talking $Billions in pure profit.
Ok nobody does that. There’s no reason to. So putting this in the fanboy camp.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
A few dozen ?
BTW, do you not have FSD ? You need to experience this first hand to understand its pros/cons.
I do has FSD, but I'm still waiting on getting V12.A few dozen ?
BTW, do you not have FSD ? You need to experience this first hand to understand its pros/cons.
As of this moment, only 14% of the fleet has V12.3
I’m a full FSD sceptic. We got 12.3 last night. Took it out this morning for 20 miles of busy town, side roads, highway after getting 19” of snow. It is really really good. I still think L4/L5/Robotaxis are a loooong way away but 12.3 is an order of magnitude leap ahead compared to any other upgrade I’ve ever received.
I agree with this. Got the 12.3 update last night on our 2022 refresh Model X and took it out this morning for some driving and its performance is a step-change advancement for sure. There was a narrow lane and a residential area that had cars parked on both sides with only a narrow passage available and cars coming the opposite way. It handled it patiently and very well.
Dunno if any of this will affect the SP in the near term though but perhaps it will help it not fall TOO much over the next couple months. I still think barring a rabbit pulled out of a hat on ER, breaking $200 in the next 6-12 weeks will be difficult if not impossible. I hope I’m wrong.
FSD 12 recap ..
www.cnbc.com
During the discussion, Musk latched on to a key fact the team had discovered: The neural network did not work well until it had been trained on at least a million video clips
==
Another weekend of impressive FSD driving 13-14 miles. One intervention, should have taken left lane in advance. Over time and with more samples will likely be resolved ...
How Elon Musk set Tesla on a new course for self-driving
Tesla's latest version of FSD had taught itself how to drive by processing billions of frames of video of how humans do it, Isaacson writes.
www.cnbc.com
During the discussion, Musk latched on to a key fact the team had discovered: The neural network did not work well until it had been trained on at least a million video clips
==
Another weekend of impressive FSD driving 13-14 miles. One intervention, should have taken left lane in advance. Over time and with more samples will likely be resolved ...
Similar threads
