You need to understand is that he didn't say which year or decade. They can label any release "v12" "v99" or whatever, but meaningful progress towards something that's close to unsupervised autonomy won'y happen in december and most likely not during 2024 or 2025 either.
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FSD v12.x (end to end AI)
- Thread starter Buckminster
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- #fixphantombraking autopilot chill is not chill elon is an ass fix fsd extreme late deceleration fsd does not commit to go fsd does not maintain proper speed fsd hard and late braking fsd jerky driving fsd late deceleration fsd stops too early too quickly fsd stops too far behind line fsd tailgating in city streets
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
So you ignored the statement about Asok Ellesamy? Buh-bye.
Yes. Absolutely, until they actually deliver something on time, why would we?
Again, their history is terrible.
So...if there's no v12 in 9 days...what? you'll admit you were incorrect? or will you move the goalpost and try to claim there must be employee testing?
Right now it looks like 11.4.8 is tracking for end of this week or next week for the OG OG testers and that's what is being tested internally.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
I don't think Ashok would say anything different from Elon (and keep the job).
I'm sure the target is to put out V12 for the holidays. They said the same thing about V11 in 2021. Finally released in March of 2023.
This time, it might be different. But I'm sure in the "show me" camp.
Another issue is regression. V11 is way ahead of the releases of 2 years ago, which sets the bar for V12. So V12 has to be at least as good as V11 before it is ready for release. Sadly my guess is the first few releases will be backward steps.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think the biggest issue is going to be even finding out what the regressions are. They definitely won’t have a lot of scenarios in their test and will only find out after release ….
Would even the experienced beta testers like us confidently use it all the time like we do V11 now ? I feel I will have to again go through the entire learning curve figuring out what it can and what it can’t do.
Perhaps but 11.4.4 has been such a large regression for me I'd welcome the learning curve.
Every time Elon says “Two weeks,” you need to picture the movie in which the young couple is renovating their house, and every subcontractor (I forget the name of the movie right now. Someone help me out) says “two weeks.”
Or you can imagine the scene from Total Recall where Arnold’s head disguise goes nuts saying “two weeks” before the head explodes.
Either one works.
Classic Hanks movie Money Pit - oddly enough the name many give to FSD
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Elon says V12 is "trending well" and over time will far exceed human safety even when unsupervised:
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Elon is not letting lack of evidence prevent him from making fantastical claims. It’s a storied tradition I suppose.
Unfortunately zero evidence for the first claim. It’s very sad - I definitely think it could be true. I want it to be true. But no evidence.
Some day Tesla will provide the data that they surely possess. And then maybe someone can figure it out.
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
When had he ever let that stop him?
The problem is progress is not necessarily linear and does not continue infinitely so the current trend can’t necessarily be extrapolated. That doesn’t mean it won’t, just that one can’t assume.
Interesting that Elon added "unsupervised" to his comment. I wonder how you know V12 is trending well if you're not supervising FSD? 
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Interesting that Elon added "unsupervised" to his comment. I wonder how you know V12 is trending well if you're not supervising FSD?
Schrodinger's FSD
He didn't say unsupervised V12 was trending well, he said unsupervised FSD was.Interesting that Elon added "unsupervised" to his comment. I wonder how you know V12 is trending well if you're not supervising FSD?
If there aren't interventions, it could have done that section unsupervised.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes. I read that comment in context as Elon "correcting" some clueless person who said FSD is 20x better.
Very different from Elon posting out of the blue that FSD is trending well.
KArnold
Active Member
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