FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[diplomat33]

With end-to-end there’s really no way of knowing. Which is why I’m very pessimistic about this approach. I worry it will end up working a lot like ChatGPT, remarkably reliable most of the time but inexplicably wrong way too often.

I definitely get that impression from what I have seen of V12 so far. It can do some things really good and even impressive and yet do some things really bad.

 

[gsmith123]

One more thing about this near miss with the right turn is that yes, the FSD car does have the right of way, but only for the rightmost lane of the road they're turning on to (depending on jurisdiction). This does depend on state law (and I didn't check NY). In some states the FSD car must stay in the rightmost lane, so the turning cars are free to use the left lane.

As we see in the video FSD car then immediately moves to the left lane. It does not have the right of way for that maneuver in all US states.

FSD should absolutely never force another driver to slow down so FSD can take its right of way. Thats asking for trouble.

I'm a little confused. In normal driving you typically should take your right of way (unless collision is imminent) and that absolutely can force other drivers to slow down. Consider approaching a roundabout with other cars approaching to your right.

You have the right of way and should smoothly proceed through the roundabout without yielding to the car to your right. The other car needs to slow down and wait for you to pass.

Am I misunderstanding?

 

[gsmith123]

I definitely get that impression from what I have seen of V12 so far. It can do some things really good and even impressive and yet do some things really bad.

It does feel like they went a bit far on assertiveness (not something I thought I'd accuse FSD of for a long time!). All the mistakes I've seen so far are somewhat bonderline in the sense that if the timing or spacing of vehicles had been just a bit different FSD strategy could have been OK.

I'm bit disappointed but at the same time it's kind of wild seeing what this thing can do. I suspect they're working on tuning things down a bit before a wider push.

 

[drtimhill]

Wonder if the "stuttering" speed on straight roads, with no lead car is related to the training videos it learns from. If shown several videos of cars going straight by themselves they will be driving at different speeds and they will all be correct. Maybe the NN see this and thinks that to be driving correct it must drive at all the speeds it has learned.

That's possible, though its more likely that the car is determining a "safe" speed moment by moment based on its confidence levels about the surroundings and these are not yet "damped" enough, so the car is over-responding to minor changes a human would not even bother about. It would be interesting (thought tricky) to do repeat drives on the same stretch of road (in same conditions) and see if the variance is consistent.

 

[gsmith123]

Does the planning AI know how fast the car has been driving the past (say) 30 seconds?

Holding a steady speed (even for a human) would be pretty much impossible without taking into account history, so I wonder if the AI either doesn't know about recent history or under weights it.

 

[flutas]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762269031493697749

Interesting. Looking at the visual you see the pedestrian "strobing" in and out, so the car was failing to detect the pedestrian very well (for v11 stack that runs visuals?).

With end-to-end there’s really no way of knowing.
Which is why I’m very pessimistic about this approach. I worry it will end up working a lot like ChatGPT, remarkably reliable most of the time but inexplicably wrong way too often.

I definitely get that impression from what I have seen of V12 so far. It can do some things really good and even impressive and yet do some things really bad.

So for end to end, you actually can debug them to figure out the "why" in what's going on using some recent tech (Explainable AI). A recent example was AI being able to detect differences in brain scans by biological sex and researches tracing the why.

Excerpt from the article on that part:

Until recently, a model like the one Menon’s team employed would help researchers sort brains into different groups but wouldn’t provide information about how the sorting happened. Today, however, researchers have access to a tool called “explainable AI,” which can sift through vast amounts of data to explain how a model’s decisions are made.

Using explainable AI, Menon and his team identified the brain networks that were most important to the model’s judgment of whether a brain scan came from a man or a woman. They found the model was most often looking to the default mode network, striatum, and the limbic network to make the call.

AI Determines Sex of Person From Brain Scans - Neuroscience News

Researchers developed an artificial intelligence model that accurately determines the sex of individuals based on brain scans, with over 90% success.

neurosciencenews.com

I'm sure Tesla could do it, but would need the ability to capture ALL the data the car (all sensors, etc) is using and send it back to "the mothership."

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The driving in general is totally different than V11, it's a whole new unpredictable beast with whole different set of behaviors

It seems you are right, Waymo is quivering.

Imo that the not surrendering its right of way in NYC

I didn't check NY

It’s not NY. Not sure why people think this. What gave it away was the palm trees, eucalyptus, and the San Diego Freeway. They’re passing under 405. Second clip is near I-105.

Anyway you have a duty to not cause accidents, so if that means not cutting someone off, so be it. I would just lay on the horn in this situation until traffic gave me my right of way, then proceed into the intersection. No one is harmed. If it doesn’t work it doesn’t work. Hopefully FSD will learn to honk. Need to add that as an output and start training.

 

[Guyver810]

How much longer would you say you keep 12.x engaged compared to 30 seconds with 11.x? Sounds like you kept it on through the destination, so do you think it's comfortable and safe enough for you to generally keep it on for say 300 seconds or more now?

Now I can let it drive from A to B, but it drives slower than set speed at some areas and no problems on highway. It's only the early public version of V12 and now I am confident FSD will reach it's goal in 6 months to 12 months. Not sure how long Tesla been working on V12 but the way I see the progress is way faster than V11 and all of it's previous combined.

V11 and any other early versions are total shxx, it's overly complicated for simple just drive. When humans are driving we go straight and slow down, stops change lanes when need to, but V11 do crazy things completely unnecessary, some versions prior to V12 updates I can even tell they simply just re-label the same version and upload as new.

By the way, V12 now does U-turn.

 

[powertoold]

It seems you are right, Waymo is quivering.

Yes, Waymo actually sucks at driving, it's good at reliability, iykyk

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yes, Waymo actually sucks at driving, it's good at reliability, iykyk

Karpathy thinks it's ok.

At some point, these systems cross the threshold of reliability and become what looks like Waymo today. They creep into the realm of full autonomy. In San Francisco today, you can open up an app and call a Waymo instead of an Uber. A driverless car will pull up and take you, a paying customer, to your destination. This is amazing. You need not know how to drive, you need not pay attention, you can lean back and take a nap, while the system transports you from A to B. Like many others I’ve talked to, I personally prefer to take a Waymo over Uber and I’ve switched to it almost exclusively for within-city transportation. You get a lot more low-variance, reproducible experience, the driving is smooth, you can play music, and you can chat with friends without spending mental resources thinking about what the driver is thinking listening to you.

I'll have to try it out when they finally start service in LA. I usually see them whenever I'm up there.

 

[powertoold]

I don't understand why people are comparing V12 to ChatGPT. Totally different inputs and outputs as I mentioned before.

Show me a video where V12 hallucinates anything

 

[Daniel in SD]

Show me a video where V12 hallucinates anything

The video where it hallucinates that there's drivable space when there's actually a car there?

 

[powertoold]

The video where it hallucinates that there's drivable space when there's actually a car there?

You're talking about that parking lot bump? We have no confirmation fsd was enabled at the time, and that's not a hallucination

People bump into other cars in parking lots all the time, and it has nothing to do with hallucination, simple distance or turning misjudgements

 

[Daniel in SD]

You're talking about that parking lot bump? We have no confirmation fsd was enabled at the time, and that's not a hallucination

How would we know if V12 hallucinated something?

 

[OxBrew]

It pulled out into oncoming traffic across a double yellow line. Thats hallucinating a safe path of travel.

Regarding taking your right of way vs forcing another car to slow down: let me restate that. Take your right of way but always always if you can avoid an accident, you must try to avoid an accident. Thats a basic premise of the social contract we all operate under as we try to get down the road and home alive.

If I can slow a bit for you, and save your life, I will, even if it means OMG!!! You took my turn at the intersection!!!!

Chill out, let it flow. Assume the other driver's mom just died, like the time I blew through the 4 way stop at 35 after my mom died. Thanks everyone for leaving me the space to f---- up once in a while, it happens. (and yeah, I pulled over and let my wife drive immediately).

Or the other time my brakes failed on my 67 Volvo on Kearny above Broadway in SF, I blew through a red light crossing Broadway and 4 lanes of traffic miraculously swerved and missed me.

Or 20 times a year in the snow where everyone who can just gets out of the way of the out of control car careening down the hill. I've given up a lane and driven on the sidewalk to let the downhill car slide past out of control, exchanging a nod and a wave, all the thanks I need.

Its not a competition, its a transportation system, and we all want to get home alive.

I hope to god FSD does not turn into the most insufferable, self righteous, entitled jerks on the road, making the point to be right over being dead.

 

[heltok]

I don't understand why people are comparing V12 to ChatGPT. Totally different inputs and outputs as I mentioned before.

Show me a video where V12 hallucinates anything

 

[Dewg]

It pulled out into oncoming traffic across a double yellow line. Thats hallucinating a safe path of travel.

Regarding taking your right of way vs forcing another car to slow down: let me restate that. Take your right of way but always always if you can avoid an accident, you must try to avoid an accident. Thats a basic premise of the social contract we all operate under as we try to get down the road and home alive.

If I can slow a bit for you, and save your life, I will, even if it means OMG!!! You took my turn at the intersection!!!!

Chill out, let it flow. Assume the other driver's mom just died, like the time I blew through the 4 way stop at 35 after my mom died. Thanks everyone for leaving me the space to f---- up once in a while, it happens. (and yeah, I pulled over and let my wife drive immediately).

Or the other time my brakes failed on my 67 Volvo on Kearny above Broadway in SF, I blew through a red light crossing Broadway and 4 lanes of traffic miraculously swerved and missed me.

Or 20 times a year in the snow where everyone who can just gets out of the way of the out of control car careening down the hill. I've given up a lane and driven on the sidewalk to let the downhill car slide past out of control, exchanging a nod and a wave, all the thanks I need.

Its not a competition, its a transportation system, and we all want to get home alive.

I hope to god FSD does not turn into the most insufferable, self righteous, entitled jerks on the road, making the point to be right over being dead.

I 100% agree with your last line. However, this falls in the "you can't please everyone" category. I'm very laid-back and don't mind a big gap between me and the car in front of me - I run in Chill mode at all times. But others lose their $hit when the car has enough of a gap to allow someone to get in front of them. They want the car to be aggressive, and will probably love the current behavior. I, like you, probably won't like it, and want to go back to what I'm currently experiencing. If my car stops at a stop-sign and waits for 2 or 3 seconds before going, I'm totally fine with that. But that 2-3 seconds would drive some people crazy.

 

[Guyver810]

Karpathy thinks it's ok.

I'll have to try it out when they finally start service in LA. I usually see them whenever I'm up there.

Karpathy is overrated in my opinion, if you have Tesla long enough you should remember the version 2018.10.4, that's his official first released of Autopilot, that version is mind blowing of keeping the car in the lane and pretty much that's all, it's also the version that always keeps the car in the center of the lane no matter how wide the lane is, if the lane is 2~3 cars wide it will keep in the center no matter what and it keep the car in the center even in the fork on the freeway which causing a lot of issues and it wasn't fixed for years. To me it's the biggest problem of Autopilot.

 

[jeewee3000]

I am talking about a few seconds later here. You can see the Tesla FSD is in the path of the other vehicle. Luckily, the other driver was paying attention, honked and slowed down or yes, there could have been a collision.

To come back to this intersection:

1) the Tesla (on FSDBeta v12) had the right of way to turn right as opposed to the oncoming car turning left, but this right of way only lasts during this turn (so on the intersection)

2) what the Tesla did is turn right in its designated lane and then immediately change lanes to the left, seen in the pic posted by @diplomat33 . When performing this lane change, the Tesla had NO right of way to the cars in the lane it wanted to enter. When the other car honked it was because he turned left in his designated lane (side by side the Tesla that had just turned right, so both cars are not interfering each other) and was confronted with the Tesla cutting him off by entering his lane in an unsafe manner.

The Tesla should have slowed down in its lane (whilst signaling to the left), waiting for the honking car to pass him, and then execute the (double) lane change to the left.

I know v12 is smoother and a step up from v11, but I'm getting tired of the cheerleading that is overlooking severe flaws.

 

[Todd Burch]

To come back to this intersection:

1) the Tesla (on FSDBeta v12) had the right of way to turn right as opposed to the oncoming car turning left, but this right of way only lasts during this turn (so on the intersection)

2) what the Tesla did is turn right in its designated lane and then immediately change lanes to the left, seen in the pic posted by @diplomat33 . When performing this lane change, the Tesla had NO right of way to the cars in the lane it wanted to enter. When the other car honked it was because he turned left in his designated lane (side by side the Tesla that had just turned right, so both cars are not interfering each other) and was confronted with the Tesla cutting him off by entering his lane in an unsafe manner.

The Tesla should have slowed down in its lane (whilst signaling to the left), waiting for the honking car to pass him, and then execute the (double) lane change to the left.

I know v12 is smoother and a step up from v11, but I'm getting tired of the cheerleading that is overlooking severe flaws.

This is not correct.

California Vehicle Code says absolutely nothing about cars turning into their own lane or about the right of way lasting only during the turn itself.

Moreover, any experienced driver would be a fool to turn left against an oncoming vehicle turning right for two reasons:

1. If the oncoming car fails to turn you have a head-on collision risk.

2. If the oncoming car fails to maintain his lane there is risk of sideswipe collision.

California Vehicle Code 21801 states:

“(a) The driver of a vehicle intending to turn to the left or to complete a U-turn upon a highway, or to turn left into public or private property, or an alley, shall yield the right-of-way to all vehicles approaching from the opposite direction which are close enough to constitute a hazard at any time during the turning movement, and shall continue to yield the right-of-way to the approaching vehicles until the left turn or U-turn can be made with reasonable safety.”

The vehicle that honked not only made the left turn in violation of this section, but also could not possibly have established his lane before the FSD vehicle completed his turning maneuver.

I can’t imagine any traffic court in the country that would have defended the vehicle turning left.