FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[aronth5]

This was interesting - looks like V12 does reasonably well in congested winding roads.

But one thing I have to note - he says V12 starts moving at intersections before the other car finishes. Even V11 has started doing that in the latest releases.

Curious do you consider this movement thru intersections a problem? If done properly that seems fine to me and is fairly normal human behavior. I know I do that every day.

 

[JB47394]

Odd failure for a seemingly basic stay in lane with disengagement for crossing over.

That suggests to me that it's V12's habit of trying to go around stopped traffic, even if it means moving into an oncoming lane. It's that emphasis on downtown San Francisco driving again.

 

[Jeff N]

An issue I’ve seen for years (we can say that now) is that FSD follows the turn lane rules a little too closely. There are many instances with lane situations that FSD will only get into the turn lane when it’s “supposed” to. Around here, people pile into said turn lanes as soon as they can, often backing up onto otherwise “undriveable” space. This is how people drive around here.

I had a situation a few days ago driving down a major street heading for a freeway onramp at the next intersection. The onramp was backed up with a long line of cars and V12.2.1 saw it, slowed a bit and momentarily hesitated and then turned to the right and got in line. Impressive. I suspect V11 would have continued down toward the onramp just to get blocked from entering.

 

[brkaus]

That suggests to me that it's V12's habit of trying to go around stopped traffic, even if it means moving into an oncoming lane. It's that emphasis on downtown San Francisco driving again.

I get that all the time with v11. Traffic backed up at a light and it tries to pull around.

 

[Jeff N]

Yeah to me doesn’t seem analogous.

Just seems like this sort of thing is far more complex than chess, which has clear rules. There are hundreds of thousands/millions of variants of this sort of thing. Learning blundering does not seem simple. There are rules here, but each variant will have different considerations.

I’d be surprised if it ever starts to learn the correct lane to be in even 7-10 seconds in advance. Not to mention that for many cases it requires prior knowledge to know far enough in advance to avoid a problem scenario/lane backup.

I was in a Waymo a few days ago and noticed that it also doesn’t always look or plan its path very far in advance.

It wanted to be in the right lane for an upcoming turn at the next intersection but the lane was blocked by 3 obviously double-parked cars at intervals down the street. For each car, the Waymo changed to the left lane to avoid the parked car and then immediately changed back to the right only to immediately do the same dance again when arriving at the next double-parked car a few seconds later. It all worked out fine but it was a bit silly and demonstrated the car’s limited ability to strategize. Either that, or its sensors can’t see very far down the road — these double-parked cars were easily visible to me.

A human driver would have changed to the left lane and skipped all three cars before changing to the right in order to turn at the intersection.

 

[mongo]

I was in a Waymo a few days ago and noticed that it also doesn’t always look or plan its path very far in advance.

It wanted to be in the right lane for an upcoming turn at the next intersection but the lane was blocked by 3 obviously double-parked cars at intervals down the street. For each car, the Waymo changed to the left lane to avoid the parked car and then immediately changed back to the right only to immediately do the same dance again when arriving at the next double-parked car a few seconds later. It all worked out fine but it was a bit silly and demonstrated the cars limited ability to strategize. Either that, or its sensors can’t see very far down the road — these double-parked cars were easily visible to me.

A human driver would have changed to the left lane and skipped all three cars before changing to the right in order to turn at the intersection.

Was the left lane going in the same direction?

 

[powertoold]

12.2.1 HW3 kinda sucks in the rain at night, slow hesitant and not convincing (Average auto-max). Makes you appreciate that 11.4.9 performed similarly rain or shine.

 

[Jeff N]

Was the left lane going in the same direction?

Yes, the left lane was open with little traffic and was in the same direction — the car wasn’t crossing over into an oncoming lane in order to bypass the double-parked cars.

This all would have made for a good video segment but I long-ago stopped recording my trips on Waymo because nothing interesting ever happened. With Cruise, I recorded video on every trip.

 

[kpanda17]

been a bit of a pause by Tesla since the rapid-fire code updates on both trains of 2024.2 and 2023.40.30
maybe Tesla is busy attempting to merge the v12 into 2024.2 for a wide release
Elon also just referenced 12.3...
hoping a big update and rollout soon, about to do a 1200 mile road trip and want to turn back on my FSD subscription and use V12

 

[Daniel in SD]

Poor Chuck may be the last to get v12 (or at least just one before me). Kingdom rules: Never speak ill of the King or there will be hell to pay.

Getting that beer from @AlanSubie4Life this time. FSD will be out of beta when Chuck gets it.

 

[sleepydoc]

Getting that beer from @AlanSubie4Life this time. FSD will be out of beta when Chuck gets it.

Just make sure you get to name the beer!

 

[JulienW]

been a bit of a pause by Tesla since the rapid-fire code updates on both trains of 2024.2 and 2023.40.30
maybe Tesla is busy attempting to merge the v12 into 2024.2 for a wide release
Elon also just referenced 12.3...
hoping a big update and rollout soon, about to do a 1200 mile road trip and want to turn back on my FSD subscription and use V12

Very little chance of that. It seems v12 has a lot more "unknown" and unexpected issues that popped up since the wider testing. Looks like 12.3 will just get some major bug fixes and probably only go to the same people for safety. Likely it will be 12.4 (or 12.3.1 or .2) before it starts rolling to a few more. Even then following normal the stereotypical "slow rollout" 12.4 (or 12.3.1 or .2) would only go to maybe 10% to 20% or so for another week or so of testing. If all goes well we will probably be lucky to see it wide before tax day. Optimistically IMO March 25 would be super fast and exciting.

Also as I stated in another thread I think it is kinda doubtful it will be moved up to 24.2.x. If so there would be no reason to keep us all on 23.44.x software. Also Tesla likes to stay behind to help isolate bugs to the FSD and not the newer software. Since v12 is so new and not well known it seems even less likely to go on a new software version.

 

[Captkerosene]

That was a good video. Those construction flag men show the challenges E2E faces. How many years before v12 is trained to handle an intersection with a police officer directing traffic via eye contact/arm/hand/whistle?

It seemed to respond a bit late to the one pedestrian (@10:00) carrying a box across the residential street. I would guess the blind curve played a role.

People keep underestimating how smart this thing is getting. Elon says we'll have extra compute by the end of the year, sooooo .... it should be feature complete by then.

Human nature is to project past events forward ... "To learn from the past." Six coin tosses in a row have come up "tails." You need to thrown out that info and recalculate the odds of a heads with the new V12 info.

 

[Mardak]

I'd rather it plan better and not need to recover in the first place… Except had it picked the correct turn lane in the first place it wouldn't have needed to negotiate that merge.

Yeah hopefully end-to-end doesn't have trouble retaining understanding of both better planning and ability to recover. There will be other situations with only one turn lane to pick anyway, and it can still require switching multiple lanes quickly and smoothly:

Unrelated, later in the same video 12.2.1 actually parks mostly centered within a parking stall. Most attempts I've seen it crossed over lines or oddly angled, but this case is significantly assisted by being between 2 vehicles. Although it's still not a great parking as it's far back enough to still see the mirrors of both adjacent vehicles. I'm guessing parking lots and parking were not specifically trained yet for 12.x Smart Summon.

 

[JulienW]

.....Elon says we'll have extra compute by the end of the year, sooooo .... it should be feature complete by then.....

There you go since as we know if Elon says it will be done by the end of the year you can take it to the bank. After all he did deliver us all the Robotaxi app by the end of 2021 just like he said.

 

[JulienW]

Unrelated, later in the same video 12.2.1 actually parks mostly centered within a parking stall. Most attempts I've seen it crossed over lines or oddly angled, but this case is significantly assisted by being between 2 vehicles. Although it's still not a great parking as it's far back enough to still see the mirrors of both adjacent vehicles. I'm guessing parking lots and parking were not specifically trained yet for 12.x Smart Summon.

Now that proves REAL parking for all the doubters.

 

[Jeff N]

12.2.1 HW3 kinda sucks in the rain at night, slow hesitant and not convincing (Average auto-max). Makes you appreciate that 11.4.9 performed similarly rain or shine.

We had some fairly heavy rain yesterday afternoon in the SF area and I thought 12.2.1 on HW3 actually did well. The only time I noticed it behave differently aside from perhaps driving (reasonably) a little slower on city streets (due to the rain) was one street that splits from one into two lanes as it gets closer to an intersection. In dry weather, the newly appearing split lane marking is easily visible and V12.2.1 perfectly notices it and glides into the correct lane for a right turn at the intersection. In yesterdays rain, the lane marking were not immediately visible and the car ended up in the wrong lane for the upcoming turn and even after the markings were clearly visible 12.2.1 failed to quickly change lanes. It only signaled and and was allowed into the lane by an adjacent car when it was quite close to the turn. In any case, it managed to self-correct and the overall drive went smoothly.

 

[powertoold]

You can see the infamous 12.2.1 decision wobble in this video

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763756245524385922

 

[EVNow]

Curious do you consider this movement thru intersections a problem? If done properly that seems fine to me and is fairly normal human behavior. I know I do that every day.

No, not at all. Feels very safe and natural. I'm actually surprised V11 does this.

I should say, at intersections with stop signs, this is very good.

But at unprotected turns, it is not so good. For eg. when getting out of my neighborhood I've ULT. If a vehicle is coming from the right, instead of waiting for the vehicle to clear, FSD will creep forward. This creates uncertainty in the mind of the vehicle driver - also if the vehicle wants to turn to your lane, FSD would partially block. There is no reason to creep since there are no obstructions.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Yeah hopefully end-to-end doesn't have trouble retaining understanding of both better planning and ability to recover. There will be other situations with only one turn lane to pick anyway, and it can still require switching multiple lanes quickly and smoothly:

Unrelated, later in the same video 12.2.1 actually parks mostly centered within a parking stall. Most attempts I've seen it crossed over lines or oddly angled, but this case is significantly assisted by being between 2 vehicles. Although it's still not a great parking as it's far back enough to still see the mirrors of both adjacent vehicles. I'm guessing parking lots and parking were not specifically trained yet for 12.x Smart Summon.

The biggest danger I noticed there was eating the food at Dennys.
The NN's should of taken over and drove you to a safe place to eat...

Not an edge case, well documented by myself and others the price you pay the day after eating the food..